Week 7 DFS Cheat Sheet: FanDuel and DraftKings (UPDATED)
October 23, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 7 of the 2016 The Fake Football FanDuel and DraftKings DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Ian Goldsmith and Chet Gresham, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel and Draftkings, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
PLUS! Ian Goldsmith’s DFS Optimizer will be added to the sheets this season! It will go LIVE every Friday!
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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LeSean McCoy is expected to play and see limited work in a committee with Mike Gillislee
Dwayne Washington is NOT active. Zach Zenner and Justin Forsett will split work. Neither are solid plays, but Zenner has the most upside.
Jamaal Charles should play, but will have a limited workload after his knee swelled up this week. I’m going to stay away from him today.
Latavius Murray will play, but is tough to play in a deep committee.
Terrelle Pryor is expected to play barring a pregame setback. I think he can be used in redraft, but I’m staying away in DFS.
Tyler Eifert will play, but will also be on a snap count. I’m avoiding in DFS.
Carson Palmer will play, but has a tough matchup with Seattle.
Travis Benjamin will play against the Falcons. He makes for a good start, but the injury is a little concerning along with some Trufant coverage. I’ll lean Tyrell Williams of the two in DFS.
Joe Flacco should start. He’s not 100 percent, but I still think Mike Wallace sees a good amount of work with Steve Smith out.
Robert Woods is officially out. Justin Hunter will take his place and has some upside, but Charles Clay becomes the safest play.
Jamaal Charles experienced swelling in his knee on Friday and is now listed as questionable against the Saints. This makes things a little clearer going into a great matchup against the Saints and unfortunately if you’re a Charles backer, you probably should hold off on using him even if he suits up. Spencer Ware is probably going to be owned in 75 percent of DFS contests, but dang, I don’t know how you can avoid him in cash games with this matchup.
Odell Beckham Jr. got practices in on Thursday and Friday and is good to go against a Rams defense that has not been great against the pass. He does play in the early, early London game, so if you want to play him in DFS, you’ll have to get a move on! And I do think he makes for a good play and might be slightly contrary this week.
Doug Martin is still out and that means it’s Jacquizz Rodgers time! He had a crazy 35 touches last game and should be used heavily again this week against the 49ers, who as we know, play up-tempo football.
Julian Edelman says he is perfectly healthy and that the nature of the offense is the only thing holding him back so far. He should have plenty of room to roam against the Steelers, so there is a chance Tom Brady tries to get him going this week.
LeSean McCoy is a game-time decision, but I’d be surprised to see him out there this week. Mike Gillislee would get the start and be worth a DFS play this week. If Shady does end up going, I would still be wary of him, as he could be used more as a backup if they want to limit him.
Robert Woods won’t play this weekend. This boosts Marquise Goodwin and Justin Hunter’s value, but I’d be more inclined to move toward Charles Clay as a safe play at tight end.
Terrelle Pryor didn’t practice this week, but Hue Jackson hasn’t ruled him out just yet. For fantasy purposes though, I’d lean toward ruling him out on your team. I’m afraid to lean too much on Andrew Hawkins or Ricardo Louis, but I could see extra receiving work for Duke Johnson and Gary Barnidge.
Jordan Reed missed practice on Thursday and Friday and is out this week. Vernon Davis becomes a nice play against a bad Lions tight end defense.
DeSean Jackson practiced on Friday and will play. He’s always a bit risky, but does have good upside against the Lions.
Phillip Dorsett won’t play this week. That narrows things down a bit and makes T.Y. Hilton an obvious funnel target, while Jack Doyle should be a safe tight end play with Dwayne Allen also out. Chester Rogers has some appeal as a cheap option in GPPs.
Tyler Eifert is listed as questionable and probably is truly questionable. If he goes he has good touchdown upside, as I assume he’d be used more in the red zone than elsewhere on the field, but he still would make for a risky play.
Dwayne Washington practiced all week and will play. He’ll share time with Zach Zenner and Justin Forsett, but I do like him to lead the team in touches. He’s worth a GPP play this week.
Will Fuller will play this week against Denver, but Texan offensive players should be faded in that matchup.
Stefon Diggs will play and should have his normal snaps. His ability keeps him on the redraft radar, but he’s risky for DFS.
Joe Flacco participated in full during Friday’s practice and will play against the Jets. His presence should boost up Dennis Pitta and Mike Wallace and give Breshad Perriman some GPP appeal with Steve Smith out for this game. I personally will have Wallace in many of my cash game lineups.
Torrey Smith got a limited practice in on Friday and should be able to go. It’s a nice matchup, but he remains risky.
John Brown won’t play this week, but Carson Palmer will. Unfortunately they get a tough matchup against the Seahawks.
Eric Ebron and Theo Riddick won’t play again this week. Anquan Boldin gets a bit more touchdown upside, but Golden Tate should again see more work with Riddick not there.
Latavius Murray will play this week, but likely will just be inserted back into the committee and be rendered useless for fantasy.
Allen Hurns returned to practice on Friday and will go in a nice matchup with Oakland.
Jimmy Graham will play against the Cardinals. He had some hip pain, but he has been removed from the injury report. He does get a tough matchup against the Cardinals though.
Vincent Jackson is out and that should lead to more targets for Cameron Brate. Mike Evans of course is a great play this week, but Brate get the bigger bump.
Sample FanDuel Lineups
There was zero chance I was going to use Kaepernick last week, but what a difference a new opponent makes. He gets to play at home against a Tampa team that has given up 2 passing TDs per game to teams not starting Derek Anderson. Kap’s ability to run actually makes him a cash game play as well, especially at only $6,500. That being said, I would only use the Kap/Torrey Smith stack in GPPs as Smith is very dependent on deep throws. I expect a big game, but he does not have a high floor and should be avoided in non-GPP settings. As with last week, I’m paying up for RB once again. DeMarco Murray has been absolutely phenomenal and gets a matchup against an Indy team that finally made Lamar Miller look like Lamar Miller. Murray should run through them repeatedly. I’ve paired him here with Spencer Ware, who gets a dream matchup against the Saints. You could actually consider stacking Ware with Jamaal Charles, as I expect them both to do enough to hit value in this matchup.
At WR, you’ll see the only player I’m using from the Thursday slate: Cameron Meredith. He has been a target machine, and with Eddie Royal looking iffy…Hell, what am I saying. It’s Eddie Royals. Meredith has clearly already passed him on the depth chart and is Hoyer’s favorite target. Green Bay’s secondary is still banged up. I’d also consider Ty Montgomery for the Packers if you want to use another player from Thursday. He is extremely cheap and should see a ton of targets acting as a de facto running back this week. Yes, the Packers just signed Knile Davis, but I think it’s Ty that benefits the most. Filling out the WRs is Mike Evans, who is just a hair behind Julio Jones in my rankings this week.
By using Meredith, Smith, and Kap, I was able to fit in Gronk, who is finally Gronking like he should. He’s worth paying up for from here on out….as is Adam Vinatieri, who has had a resurgent year and has scored so much he’s akin to a high-end WR2. Yowzas. At D, there is no reason to be cute this week. I plugged in the Vikings, but Denver, New England and Cincy are all excellent options.
I went with Kirk Cousins here at QB against a porous Detroit secondary. Detroit has given up a total of 18 TDs to opposing QBs to only 3 INTs. That’s an insane ratio. Expect a big game for the Washington man. I didn’t actually stack him with anyone here as I think he’ll be spreading the love around. You could certainly use Crowder, Garcon, or Davis, but I’d avoid DeSean Jackson. He’s worth using in tournaments, but not in a cash lineup. Joining Ware is James White, who, next to Gronk, is probably the safest fantasy player on the Pats. Given the price, he may be the safest player on that team.
Joining Evans here are A.J. Green against the pathetic Browns (sorry, not sorry, Cleveland fans), and Allen Robinson against an Oakland team giving up over 200 receiving yards and a TD per game to opposing WRs. Yikes. I’m more than happy to pay up for WR in this cash lineup given their matchups. I saved some moolah at TE with Hunter Henry, who is still only $5,800 despite three games of 14+ FP in a row. Jason Myers fills in at kicker in a high scoring affair in Jacksonville, and the Patriots round out the lineup at DST against Landry “No, I Swear I’m Not Derek Anderson” Jones.
I’ve rehashed every single player in this lineup from the previous two, except for the Denver defense. If you are playing a slate with Monday’s game in it, it will be hard to avoid the Broncos at home against their former teammate, and all around terrible QB, Brock Osweiler. Stream away!
I’m not going to go over everyone again here. This is simply a new combination from many of the players I’ve used above. The one new change, however, is Pierre Garcon at WR. I’ve grown to like him more and more as the week has progressed. His 11 targets last week, coupled with his 5+ catches in 4 games this year has swung him over to the cash side for me. While I vastly prefer him on DraftKings and other full PPR sites, he’s a cheap play that will hold his own and open up salary cap for other high-end players.
Three new faces appear in this lineup. Two of them are at WR: Amari Cooper and Julio Jones. Jones is the top WR play by far, but I am only considering him in GPPs as I’m afraid of Atlanta doing to San Diego what they did to New Orleans; that is, I’m afraid they are going to run the ball ad nauseum and Ryan and Julio will be fantasy cast-asides. Cooper is a boom-or-bust play against a Jags team that tends to give up bigger games to WR2’s than WR1’s. Still, one deep TD is all that it takes…He’s a risky play, but with great upside.
Sample DraftKings Lineups
DraftKings Lineup Configurations
I won’t waste too much of your time here, given that many of the players I threw into my FanDuel lineups appear here as well. In the Thursday slate, I threw in both Meredith and Ty Montgomery here. Montgomery, given his likely usage, is hard not to use given he costs the minimum $3,000 this week. He hit for over 6X value last week, which could easily be achieved again (if not exceeded), should he be used like many experts expect.
Two players here that I didn’t touch on above are Julio Jones and Vernon Davis. Jones is easily my top WR of the week, though is suited more towards tournaments given his price and the fact that Atlanta could run the Chargers out of the building with Freeman and Coleman, just like they did against the Saints. Still, his potential upside is the highest on the slate and he’s worth a roster spot. Davis should get another start with Jordan Reed looking iffy with a concussion. At least, I hope for Reed’s health that they hold him out. Concussions are no laughing matter. If Reed does sit, than Davis, who scored against the Eagles last week, gets a matchup against a team that has given up 7 TDs to the TE position, including one to Lance Kendricks last week. Davis is a no-brainer for me at his price.
This lineup is definitely different from those above as I’ve stacked Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson. Oakland is giving up 2 TDs and nearly 320 passing yards per game to opposing QBs. Alex Smith actually destroyed them last week, too, but his 19/22 line was overshadowed by the running game. I love the matchup. Garcon and Crowder, whom I mentioned above, are both slotted in at the other two WR spots as they have been solid week-in-week-out. With Reed out, their targets have increased as well. Crowder is a near must for me in cash games on full PPR sites, and Garcon is beginning to get close to that status as well.
James White is a must given his ability to catch the ball in that offense. The NE scatback, whether White, Lewis, or any other number of players who have played the position over the years, is always worth owning in cash slates.
There are only two new faces to this lineup: Devonta Freeman and the Philly defense. Freeman should have no trouble going off against a weakened SD defense (who, to their credit, did play well last week against a MUCH worse offense; the Falcons, however, are not the Broncos). Philly is definitely a riskier play as their old teammate Sam Bradford has not yet thrown an interception. However, I love Philly’s big play ability, and I don’t have enough faith in the Vikings offense to not at least consider Philly as an option here. If you don’t feel comfortable with Philly, New England is, surprisingly, $200 cheaper and playing Derek Ander…er, Landry Jones. Go figure.
Well, there is no safer way to start your lineup than with pissed-off Tom Brady. The Steelers do not have the personnel to stop him…hell, nobody does. The Pats are going to tear apart the Steelers, just like they will do with most opponents this season from here on out. I stacked him with James White who, next to Gronk, is his most reliable receiving option. Yes, Edelman is still there, but give me the scat back in the Pats’ offense any day of the week. I’ve also used two other pass-happy RBs in Spencer Ware (in a dream matchup against the Saints, and with Jamaal potentially out) and Jacquizz Rodgers, who was born to catch footballs out of the backfield. I’m happy Quizz is getting his day in the sun. I love Pierre Garcon’s usage of late, especially his 11 targets last week. He’s locked into most of my cash lineups given his price and output. On the higher end, I love both A.J. Green and Mike Evans. Evans has scored at least 19 FP in four of five games so far this season and gets an excellent matchup. The only thing holding Green back would be if the Cincy run game rolls up a 30 point lead quickly. I don’t think that happens. Hunter Henry has hit 11+ FP four weeks in a row and seems to be the safest receiving option in the San Diego system. The Vikings are, hands down, the safest DST play. They should be looked at every week.
There are definitely a few familiar names here. Of those that aren’t, I love Cousins against the Lions. I’ve warmed up to him more and more as the week has progressed. I’ve stacked him here with Garcon. I’ve paid up at RB to use DeMarco Murray, who is one of my top overall plays of the week. Feel free to use him anywhere. I paid up for Julio Jones, who has an excellent matchup. Like Green, the only thing holding back a potential monster day is if the Atlanta running game gets rolling early and often. As such, I am actually a bit sour on Jones in cash games. At TE, with Dwayne Allen out, Jack Doyle takes over as the TE1 in Indy. He should easily hit value at only $2,500. I wanted to fit in the Vikings, but didn’t have the extra $100, so I slotted in the Bengals, who get a beaten down Cleveland team.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters.
As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience.
To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. If you have any questions whatsoever about how to use the optimizer, or if it’s not working for you, e-mail me at email@example.com. I’ll do my best to get back to you right away. If you don’t have Excel 2010 or later, then shoot me an e-mail with constraints you want, and I’ll run it for you. Also, if you have any ideas for things you’d want to see included in future iterations of this, then I’d also love to hear about them! Thanks, and have fun!!
NOTE: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include.
If you have any questions at all, shoot me an e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org. Good luck this week!
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||DK||FD||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp DK FD Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $4,000 $5,100 17 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $2,600 $4,300 22 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $2,900 $4,500 22 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $2,700 $4,500 27 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $3,400 $4,800 24 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $2,800 $4,300 26 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $3,000 $4,700 32 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $2,300 $4,200 27 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|