Week 6 DraftKings Value Picks October 8, 2014  |  Ian Goldsmith


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QUARTERBACKS

 

Ben Roethlisberger: $6500 – Pittsburgh at Cleveland

The former Miami (OH) standout is on pace to have the most accurate passing season of his NFL career. Hitting his receivers for at least a 72.2% clip the past three weeks, Big Ben has simply been electric. This week he gets to face a Cleveland team that he torched for 365 and a TD in Week 1. The Browns are not a pushover and will keep this game close (Vegas actually has the Browns as 1.5 point favorites). He’ll need to throw early and often. Cash play.

Nick Foles: $6800 – Philadelphia vs. NY Giants

There is no denying that Foles has been underwhelming in DFS the past two weeks. At the same time, however, he has not had a chance to really get into a rhythm in either game. The Eagles’ defense, amongst the worst at giving up yardage, is an opportunistic bunch and has scored FIVE touchdowns in the past two games. That kind of play is simply unsustainable. The defense will struggle this week against the Giants and an incendiary Eli Manning, which means that Foles will have to pass, pass, pass. I’d be shocked to see him with less than 20 FP this week. Cash and tournament play.

 

RUNNING BACKS

 

Joique Bell: $3700 – Detroit at Minnesota

If Bell is cleared to play Sunday, then he is a must start in your lineups against a Vikings team that allows over 150 total yards and a TD per game to opposing RBs. With Bush and perhaps Megatron out Sunday, Detroit will have to utilize their catch-happy RB if they want to win against a scrappy Minnesota team. Joique is a bit risky coming off of injury, but he could be the one player that win’s people tournaments this week. Cash and tournament play if he starts.

Ronnie Hillman: $3000 – Denver at NY Jets

Hillman is not going to run for 150 yards and 2 TDs. He’s probably not even going to run for 100. What he can do for you this week is run for 60 and catch 3 balls for another 25 yards. That would give him 11.5 FP, which is more than enough to pay off his minimum salary. He’s not flashy, but he is the starting RB this week in an explosive Denver offense. Tournament play.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

 

Mohamed Sanu: $5300 – Cincinnati vs. Carolina

AJ Green aggravated his toe injury in practice on Wednesday. If he can’t go, Sanu will get another opportunity to shine against a surprisingly porous Carolina defense. Marvin Jones won’t be back this week either, which means Sanu is going to be the recipient of many an Andy Dalton pass. He is certainly not the most consistent player, but he does have 5 receptions in each of his past two games. I think he will be targeted enough to make him a decent cash play, but I’m still leaning on using him in tourneys only.

Louis Murphy Jr.: $3800 – Tampa Bay vs. Baltimore

Well, Murphy has taken full advantage of Mike Evans’ injury. With plenty of playing time the past two weeks, Murphy has responded with 9 catches for 134 yards and a TD. While these numbers aren’t mind blowing, they are good enough to make me look his way for only $3800. He gets a matchup against Baltimore this week, which seems tougher than it is as they give up the 6th most passing yards per game in the NFL. The matchup will probably scare some people away, which makes Louis a decent contrarian play in tournaments.

 

TIGHT ENDS

 

Luke Willson: $3000 – Seattle vs. Dallas

This is all about matchup. Dallas’ defense, while good in spots, has been absolutely horrific against opposing TEs. They are giving up nearly 8 catches for over 80 yards and 1 TD against the position. I thought Willson would have a decent game against Washington on Monday night. I’m glad that he didn’t, because he will now still be under the radar of most of your opponents in tournaments this week. At 6’5, 252, he presents a big body for the other Wilson to throw to in the Red Zone. This is certainly a pick for the risk-loving, but one that could pay off in a big way. Tournament play only.

Larry Donnell: $3500 – NY Giants at Philadelphia

Yes, I’m dipping back into the Donnell pool of love. He had an incredibly tough week last week, putting up a big fat 0 for fantasy teams. This week will be different, however. While the Eagles struggle to contain the Giants’ triple headed WR threat, Donnell will be able to create some space and once again play safety net for Eli Manning. The Giants should have plenty of opportunities in the red zone this week in a game that should be very high scoring, which makes me like using Donnell even more. Plus, his price dropped – dramatically. He is back to only $3500, which is astounding for a player who, until last week, was averaging nearly 18 FP per game. People will be scared by his 0 and stay away, which makes him a perfect tournament play.

 

DSTs

 

Tennessee: $2900

Don’t overthink this. They are cheap and they play Jacksonville. Hell, I’d start the Jacksonville defense against the Jags’ offense.

Seattle: $3100

The Seahawks’ defense has vastly underperformed preseason predictions. Their price has dropped all the way down to $3100, which is a price point that I didn’t think I’d see them at this year (Yes, they were only $3000 against Denver, but why would you play a defense against Denver?). They will be the first team this year to hold DeMarco Murray under 100 yards on the ground. Tony Romo is going to have to get pass happy, which is going to lead to his getting frustrated, which is going to lead to turnovers, which is going to lead to…..well, you get the point. They are a better tournament play than cash play.

 

Week 5 Recap

This was a mixed bag, to say the least. Like many players, I was burned by Rashad Jennings’ injury. He was on pace for a very respectable game against the Falcons before he went down. Austin Davis was a nice surprise here. The Rams did nothing early, but played with integrity and didn’t give up, which led to a huge game from the Southern Mississippi product.

 

Austin Davis: 5.54 Points Per Thousand ($DK) – Comeback against Philly = Points galore

San Diego: 5.16  – Had their way with the woeful Jets.

Rueben Randle: 3.41 – Another solid performance. The NY Giants’ passing game looks scary.

Travis Kelce: 3.17 – Hit value once again. The rook is a stud.

Clay Harbor: 1.73 – Bortles would have been better served finding his TE more often.

Rashad Jennings: 1.67 – Oh the humanity! He was on pace for a great game before the injury. Ugh.

Chris Ivory: 1.42 – Chargers’ defense bottled up everything the Jets sent their way.

Blake Bortles: 1.35 – The Steelers made him look like a rookie. He’ll bounce back soon.

Kelvin Benjamin: 1.21 –Carolina came back without their biggest weapon. It was Olsen mania.

Dallas: 1.2 – Had a GREAT 1st half. Too bad the game is 60 minutes long. They forgot.

 

3 Responses

  1. Ian Goldsmith says:

    A note to anybody seeing me call Kelce a “rook”….I’m a fan of the Chiefs and Kelce didn’t play last year. He’s a rookie in my eyes!

  2. Ian Goldsmith says:

    Hey there, Jason.

    I actually think that Davis will do better than most people assume this week. San Francisco is the best fantasy defense against the run, which means that Davis will have to throw the ball to win. He’s a high completion passer that excels when his O-Line does their job. Unfortunately, his O-line ranks 30th in PFF’s pass blocking efficiency rating. Read this article on Niners Nation for a good look at what Davis faces this week:
    http://www.ninersnation.com/2014/10/8/6949401/49ers-vs-rams-austin-davis-quarterback-pff-grades-stats

    I think he has the upside of a 225-250 yard, 2TD game. If he were still priced in the mid $5K range, I might consider him. At his current price of $6400, however, I don’t think that he can quite reach value. That being said, he will probably have VERY low ownership in tournaments, which makes him an interesting contrarian play.

  3. Jason Bradley says:

    Hi Ian, always good advice Sir question what do you think of Austin Davis this week?

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