Week 6 DFS Value Picks October 16, 2015  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

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One of the best ways to separate yourself from the crowd in DFS is to be able to find players that are priced below where they should be for their potential output. Sometimes this is easy (e.g. when a starting RB is injured after prices are released and their low-priced backup all of a sudden is in line for a lot more work), sometimes it isn’t and requires a lot more research and – as is often the case – luck. However, as they say, preparation begets luck. Below, you’ll see six tables, each covering value plays from a different daily fantasy website. Picks are provided for DraftDay, DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyAces, FantasyDraft and StarsDraft (formerly Victiv).

There are three picks for each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE). You will see one cash pick, one tournament pick, and one high risk/high reward pick that should usually only be used in GPPs with thousands of players (such as the Million Dollar contests on FD and DK). The high risk/high reward pick will be listed as Hail Mary. The prices for each pick are capped at $2,000 above the minimum value for sites with a $50,000 salary cap and $4,000 for sites with a $100,000, though there are a few exceptions (e.g. StarsDraft has much lower minimum values, which throws things off a bit).  So, for instance, you won’t see a DraftKings QB listed for more than $7,000 because the minimum price for a QB on DK is $5,000 and the salary cap is $50,000. You get the idea. You’ll also see the following columns:

Game Type: Is this a CASH (50/50, head-to-head), GPP (tournament), or Hail Mary (high risk/high reward for huge tournaments).

% of Total $: This tells you what percentage of your salary cap is being used up by using this player.

50/50 Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in 50/50 games.

GPP Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs).

Note: I generally aim for more than what is needed to actually cash. For example, in 2014 you needed an average of 111.21 FP and 121.85 FP to cash in 50/50s and GPPs on FanDuel, respectively. This equates to multiples of 1.85 and 2.03, though in the tables below the numbers I have listed assume FanDuel multiples of 2 for 50/50s and 2.5 for GPPs. If you can hit the multiples below, you’ll have a better chance of actually cashing. It’s obviously not a guarantee that you’ll cash – sometimes you can win a GPP on DraftKings with 180 FP, other times it takes 303! – but on average, hitting these numbers will give you a baseline for your expectations. Remember: Always aim for more. These picks should help act as a starting point in your research for low-priced, high-upside players. Remember, these picks have been made well ahead of time. Anything can happen between now and Sunday.

Before going further, I’ve compiled a small table showing what you would have needed to cash in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and the FanDuel Sunday Million through the first five weeks of the season. You’ll see the average needed to win as well as the equivalent multiple.

DFS Winning Scores——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Quick Notes for Week 6

Tennessee is the 2nd/4th best defense against the run in 1 and 0.5 PPR sites, respectively. Why then do I have Lamar Miller as a play across several sites? There are several reasons. First off, I simply do not believe Miami is nearly as bad as they have looked to start the season. They have too much talent to continue to be a doormat for other NFL teams. Secondly, Dan Dampbell. The former TE Coach, turned interim Head Coach seems to have been lighting a fire in the Miami players. The culture seems to have already shifted 180 degrees from the hum-drum Philbin era. Campbell has been very up front about Miami focusing heavily on the run game. I believe him. If Lamar gets fewer than 20 touches on Sunday (he had been averaging fewer than 12/game under Philbin this year) I’d be shocked. Miller’s price cannot go much lower….this is the time to pounce. He is obviously just a tournament play at this point until he proves otherwise, but I think that changes very soon.

I am all aboard the San Francisco passing game this week in a matchup with the god-awful Baltimore defense. The loss of Suggand Ngata have really changed the Ravens’ look, and not in a good way. Colin Kaepernick and Anquan Boldin are near must haves for me this week, especially at their prices. While both have been on and off (Boldin more as a result of Kap’s play), the matchup is so good that they’re almost cash game plays for me this week. Another guy you shouldn’t forget about it Torrey Smith. This could be the week he finally puts up another big stat line like he did against the Steelers in Week 2. Let’s not forget, both Smith and Boldin are facing their former team…..Drama! Not really, but hey…let’s play into the large media narrative for the week.

 

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So, let’s take a quick look at how we did in week 5.

 

Week 5 Recap

There were some really bright spots and some really low spots in the picks this week, but the good outweighed the bad in the end. Let’s first take a look at what went wrong. I loved Baltimore’s matchup against Cleveland, but I put a bit too much value in the WRs. While Kamar Aiken did OK (4/78 on 9 targets), his teammate Marlon Brown – whom I had listed as a deep GPP play – did absolutely nothing. Well, not nothing. He did catch one pass for 0 yards. Yikes.

It was not a good week for my TE picks either. Charles Clay was taken out of the game completely by Tennessee. His 1 catch for 7 yards was very disappointing, to say the least. Owen Daniels couldn’t get anything going either against an Oakland defense that has been giving up points in droves to the position. Instead, Peyton relied on Emmanuel Sanders, who took advantage of the mismatch in the middle of the field. Daniels provided a big fat 0. Between him, Clay and Brown, we saw a combined 2.7 FP in PPR and 1.7 in 0.5 PPR sites….yikes. There was good with the bad, however…

Holy Josh McCown! I was expecting a good game from him against the then 7th worst fantasy defense against opposing QBs, but 450+ yards and 3 TDs? No, I was not expecting that. His performance pushed Baltimore past KC and into the lead for most futile defense against QBs in fantasy this year. While this week’s matchup against Denver is one I’ll likely avoid, McCown is going to provide a lot of value for the rest of the season.

Willie Snead was another bright spot. Even without the GTP that pushed him well over 100 yards, he was already a focus for Brees and easily hit and exceeded value. If he wasn’t on your radar before, he should be now. Antonio Gates with another bright spot. I hope you used him this week, because that’s probably the only week he’ll be this cheap!! It was vintage Rivers to Gates over and over and over all night on Monday against the Steelers.

Average multiples on FanDuel and FantasyAces hit their highest points of the season, while picks on DraftKings and FantasyDraft hit their 2nd highest levels. DraftDay results were just OK and StarsDraft picks were quite poor overall outside of Snead and Derek Carrier.

Best Week 5 Picks: Josh McCown (DK, FA, FD), Willie Snead (DD, DK, FD, FDraft, SD), Antonio Gates (FA, FD)

Worst Week 5 Picks: Marlon Brown (DK, FA, FD), Charles Clay (DD, DK, FD, FDraft, SD), Owen Daniels (DD, DK)

Week 5 Results

Week 5 Results

Now that that’s all out of the way….onto the DFS value picks for Week 6!

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If you have any questions, please leave a message down below or hit me up on Twitter @ianrgold.

Note: I have asterisks next to guys with iffy injury statuses, such as Cecil Shorts. If they don’t play, then I’ll try to fill in the spots before kickoff. If not, I’ll exclude them from the results for the week.

UPDATE: It looks like Theo Riddick is very iffy to play. I’ll be removing him from the tables and substituting him with someone else.

DraftDay – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Matthew StaffordDETCHIQBCASH$13,20013.2%19.826.4
Brian HoyerHOUJAXQBGPP$13,05013.1%19.626.1
Peyton ManningDENCLEQBHail Mary$12,95013.0%19.425.9
Shane VereenNYGPHIRBGPP$8,9509.0%13.417.9
Lamar MillerMIATENRBGPP$9,6509.7%14.519.3
C.J. AndersonDENCLERBHail Mary$9,6509.7%14.519.3
Jamison CrowderWASNYJWRCASH$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Kamar Aiken*BALSFWRGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Torrey SmithSFBALWRHail Mary$8,0008.0%12.016.0
Antonio GatesSDGBTECASH$7,3007.3%11.014.6
Larry DonnellNYGPHITEGPP$7,3507.4%11.014.7

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Andy DaltonCINBUFQBCASH$5,70011.4%17.122.8
Brian HoyerHOUJAXQBGPP$5,10010.2%15.320.4
Colin KaepernickSFBALQBHail Mary$5,00010.0%15.020.0
Theo RiddickDETCHIRBCASH$3,3006.6%9.913.2
Chris ThompsonWASNYJRBGPP$3,3006.6%9.913.2
Lamar MillerMIATENRBHail Mary$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Anquan BoldinSFBALWRCASH$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Jamison CrowderWASNYJWRGPP$3,6007.2%10.814.4
Cecil Shorts*HOUJAXWRHail Mary$3,2006.4%9.612.8
Richard RodgersGBSDTECASH$3,1006.2%9.312.4
Larry DonnellNYGPHITEGPP$2,8005.6%8.411.2
Jordan CamersonMIATENTEHail Mary$3,0006.0%9.012.0

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Matt StaffordDETCHIQBCASH$6,90011.5%13.817.3
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJWASQBGPP$6,90011.5%13.817.3
Brian HoyerHOUJAXQBHail Mary$6,70011.2%13.416.8
Lamar MillerMIATENRBCASH$6,40010.7%12.816.0
LeGarrette BlountNEINDRBGPP$6,50010.7%12.816.0
Shane VereenNYGPHIRBHail Mary$5,60010.8%13.016.3
Anquan BoldinSFBALWRCASH$6,50010.8%13.016.3
Eric DeckerNYJWASWRGPP$6,10010.2%12.215.3
Torrey SmithSFBALWRHail Mary$6,20010.3%12.415.5
Antonio GatesSDGBTECASH$5,5009.2%11.013.8
Larry DonnellNYGPHITEGPP$5,3008.8%10.613.3
Tyler EifertCINBUFTEGPP$6,00010.0%12.015.0

 

FantasyAces – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Joe FlaccoBALSFQBCASH$6,00012.0%18.024.0
Matthew StaffordDETCHIQBGPP$6,15012.3%18.524.6
Colin KaepernickSFBALQBHail Mary$5,90011.8%17.723.6
Lamar MillerMIATENRBCASH$4,5009.0%13.518.0
LeGarrette BlountNEINDRBGPP$4,4508.9%13.417.8
Shane VereenNYGPHIRBHail Mary$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Anquan BoldinSFBALWRCASH$4,4508.9%13.417.8
Rueben Randle*NYGPHIWRGPP$4,2008.4%12.616.8
Torrey SmithSFBALWRHail Mary$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Antonio GatesSDGBTECASH$4,3508.7%13.117.4
Larry DonnellNYGPHITEGPP$4,0008.0%12.016.0
Zach ErtzPHINYGTEHail Mary$4,1008.2%12.316.4

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOPPPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Andy DaltonCINBUFQBCASH$11,10011.1%16.722.2
Brian HoyerHOUJAXQBGPP$10,30010.3%15.520.6
Colin KaepernickSFBALQBHail Mary$10,70010.7%16.121.4
Theo RiddickDETCHIRBCASH$6,4006.4%9.612.8
Danny WoodheadSDGBRBGPP$8,7008.7%13.117.4
Lamar MillerMIATENRBHail Mary$8,2008.2%12.316.4
Jamison CrowderWASNYJWRCASH$7,7007.7%11.615.4
Anquan BoldinSFBALWRGPP$9,1009.1%13.718.2
Cecil Shorts*HOUJAXWRHail Mary$6,7006.7%10.113.4
Larry DonnellNYGPHITECASH$6,7006.7%10.113.4
Julius ThomasJAXHOUTEGPP$8,2008.2%12.316.4
Jordan CameronMIATENTEHail Mary$6,8006.8%10.213.6

 

StarsDraft (Victiv) – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Carson PalmerAZPITQBCASH$6,50013.0%16.319.5
Philip RiversSDGBQBGPP$5,70011.4%14.317.1
Colin KaepernickSFBALQBHail Mary$6,00012.0%15.018.0
Chris ThompsonWASNYJRBCASH$2,1004.2%5.36.3
Theo RiddickDETCHIRBGPP$2,9005.8%7.38.7
LeGarrette BlountNEINDRBHail Mary$4,0008.0%10.012.0
Anquan BoldinSFBALWRCASH$3,7007.4%9.311.1
Jamison CrowderWASNYJWRGPP$3,2006.4%8.09.6
Dwayne Harris*NYGPHIWRHail Mary$2,5005.0%6.37.5
Larry DonnellNYGPHITECASH$3,2006.4%8.09.6
Richard RodgersGBSDTEGPP$2,4004.8%6.07.2
Julius ThomasJAXHOUTEHail Mary$2,7005.4%6.88.1

 

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