Week 6 DFS Value Picks October 15, 2016  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

Chalk Value Plays

 

Sammie Coates at Miami

Be very careful with Coates. In addition to having a hand laceration, Coates is also dealing with a broken index finger. He was at practice on Friday, which bodes well for his availability, but nothing is for certain yet. With Eli Rogers back, it is conceivable that Coates could sit out. I would imagine that the Steelers would like him to play given Markus Wheaton is already out. If he does sit, then I don’t mind taking a flier on Rogers or, shudder, Darrius Heyward-Bey, though neither offer near the upside of Coates. He’s no longer really a value on FanDuel at nearly 11% of salary, but I’d consider him in that vein on the other three sites.

DraftKings – $4,700; FantasyDraft – $9,200; Yahoo! – $17

 

Colin Kaepernick at Buffalo

I’m not sure whether to rejoice or vomit. First off, a starting QB at minimum salary is a rarity and should always be considered. Of course, everyone knows his, which was proven with his absurdly high ownership on FantasyAces in Thursday slates. He was the top QB used, and it was not even close. There is no doubting that Kap brings upside to the table, but he is also going up against a very solid defense in Buffalo…in Buffalo. San Francisco lacks weapons in the passing game, so Kap is really going to need to use his legs to put up a decent floor. I’m not quite sold on using him, but he is certainly worth throwing into a few tournament lineups. Avoid him at all costs in cash games, however.

DraftKings – $5,000; FanDuel – $6,400; FantasyDraft – $10,000; Yahoo! – $20

 

Cameron Meredith vs Jacksonville

Like Kaepernick, Meredith was hands-down the most owned player at his position on the Thursday FantasyAces slate. Obviously the numbers aren’t going to be the same from site to site, but they do offer at least some idea of what people are thinking when building their lineups. He gets a decent matchup against a Jacksonville team that is bottom 5 against the WR position. He’s certainly worth considering in cash games given his price, though his high ownership is probably going to drive me to other WRs in tournaments.

DraftKings – $4,100; FanDuel – $5,400; FantasyDraft – $8,100; Yahoo! – $14

 

 

 

Other Value Plays

 

John Brown vs NY Jets

Last week was a bit of a let down for Brown after two big weeks in a row. After seeing a combined 27 targets in Weeks a and 4, the former Pittsburg State player saw only 4 last week. Of course, Drew Stanton was throwing the ball last week, not Carson Palmer, who is back at the helm after a one week absence. The matchup could not be better as the Cards go up against a Jets team that is giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs on the season. He’s worth using in all formats, though I am certainly leaning towards using him in tournaments more than in cash games.

DraftKings – $4,500; FantasyDraft – $8,800; Yahoo! – $18

 

Tavon Austin @ Detroit

Austin is way too hit and miss for me to use him in cash games, but the Rams always seem to do better when he gets involved heavily. I would hope that Jeff Fisher realizes this, but I never know what to expect from Mr. 8-8. He does have at least 6 targets in every game, which is encouraging. It would behoove the Rams to get him more involved in the running game as well, where he has proven that he can do a lot of damage. With Gurley averaging a paltry 2.7 YPC (largely due to his ineffective O-Line), it would make sense to try and get Austin more involved on some end-arounds, but what do I know. What I do know is that I’ll be considering him in tournaments. In cash games, I’m much rather have his teammate Kenny Britt who has at least 4/38 in every game this season and can be had for less $$$ than Austin.

DraftKings – $3,900; FanDuel – $5,700; FantasyDraft – $7,700; Yahoo! – $17

 

Tyrod Taylor vs San Francisco

While everyone and their mother are taking Kaepernick, why not consider the other QB on the field? You know, the one that is more consistent and playing for a better team? The one that knows how to slide, throw the ball away, and avoid catastrophe on the football field? The one that is only $300 more on DraftKings and who, other than a Week 1 debacle against Baltimore, has not dipped below 15.76 FP…Yeah, that one. If you want a cheap, reliable cash game play that won’t destroy your team, then consider TyGod this week, but only on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. He’s too expensive elsewhere.

DraftKings – $5,300;FantasyDraft – $10,500

 

Alex Smith at Oakland

This is your weekly reminder to stream QBs against Oakland. Smith is rarely exciting, but he also rarely destroys your team and will have an added weapon this week in a fully healthy Jamaal Charles, who should help to further exploit an already porous Raiders D. I’m strongly considering a Smith/Maclin stack this week in all formats. Avoid him on Yahoo!, where he is, inexplicably, $37. Don’t fall for that trap when you can use Mariota for $28 or Osweiler for $24.

DraftKings – $5,700; FanDuel – $6,800; FantasyDraft – $11,3000

 

Tennessee Titans vs Cleveland

Cleveland is a mess. The Titans are one of the best run defenses in the league, which negates the only good part of the Browns’ game. I’m not sure I’d exactly call them a value play on DraftKings or FantasyDraft where their salaries are more middle-of-the-road, but I’ll list those prices below, nonetheless.

DraftKings – $3,300; FanDuel – $4,700; FantasyDraft – $6,400; Yahoo! – $14

 

Vernon Davis vs Philadelphia

Well, the matchup is awful. I mean, really awful. Philadelphia has given up eight catches for 52 yards to TEs…TOTAL. That’s right, not per game…TOTAL. That obviously doesn’t bode well for anyone going up against them, but all that aside, I’m still crazy enough to consider Davis this week in tournaments where you are playing multiple lineups. He is minimum salary on every single site. With Jordan Reed being declared out with a concussion, at least Davis should see a fair number of targets. This is, obviously, a very risky play but he doesn’t need to do much to hit value. There is further risk, of course, that Washington uses Niles Paul for their main pass catcher and lets Vernon block. So, move forward very carefully if you are considering him. I’d probably rather pay a small premium for Charles Clay against San Fran.

DraftKings – $2,500; FanDuel – $4,500; FantasyDraft – $5,000; Yahoo! – $10

 

James White vs CIN

Well, for the most part, I am not going cheap at RB this week. There is way too much value in the expensive players for me to take a chance on a guy like Bilal Powell or Gio Bernard. That is not to say my lineups will be entirely void of them, but rather that they will be the exception rather than the norm. When you can get a guy like LeSean McCoy on DraftKings for only $6,900, or a guy like Christine Michael on Yahoo for only $24, then there is little incentive to try to find extreme value. However, James White may be the one exception for me in the RB value pool. With Brady back, you know the scat back will be involved fairly heavily every week, and White is that back until Dion Lewis gets back. White is obviously a better play on full PPR sites, as that is where his game resides. Still, for only $15 on Yahoo!, I’m definitely considering him for my Yahoo cup team.

DraftKings – $4,100; FanDuel – $5,700; FantasyDraft – $8,100; Yahoo! – $15

 

 

Good luck in Week 6, everybody!!!

 

OK, enough jibber-jabber. Below you’ll see four tables with my picks for the week. If you have any questions at all, hit me up in the comments or, preferably, on Twitter @ianrgold. I respond more quickly there.

 

Value Pick Tables

Picks are provided for DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyDraft and Yahoo!. There are two picks for each position, and one DST. Yes, I’ll even throw in kickers for FanDuel (well, ONE kicker). Why? Because I want to lose brain cells. The prices for each pick are loosely capped at 50% above the minimum value for that position. So, for instance,  I’ll try to limit prices for running backs on DraftKings to $4,500. For QB’s, I’m limiting picks a bit further to 40% (if I didn’t, then this week I’d have my pick of 19 QBs!). Of course, there may be some weeks that few usable players fall under these thresholds, in which case I’ll up the limit a bit. These are arbitrary numbers of course. Everyone has their own idea of what a value pick is.

In the tables below, you’ll see a few columns. The basics are Player, Team, Opponent, Type of Game (Cash, GPP, or both), and Salary. In addition to these, you’ll see the following columns:

% of Total $: This is simply the percentage of your salary cap that a particular player takes.

Cash Points: This is a loose estimate of how many points a player needs to hit a value multiple for cash games. This varies from site to site. On DraftKings, for instance, you will generally want your team to score at lease 3 FP per $1,000 in salary (on Yahoo!, it’s FP/$1, not per $1,000). We’d call this a 3X multiple.

GPP Points: This is a loose estimate of how many points a player needs to hit a multiple in GPP games. On DraftKings, for instance, I generally aim for a multiple of 4.

Of course, it is always better to aim for more than these multiples. You don’t always need 4X value in order to cash on DraftKings, but you usually need more than that if you want to win one of the huge tournaments. Yes, there are some weeks where you can win tournaments with under 200 FP, but those weeks are few and far between. If everything goes right, players can score 300 fantasy points – a multiple of 6! So, aim for more. The economist in me always screams “more is better” (Also, doesn’t The Economist in Me sound like a terrible title for a porno? “Hey baby, want to come back to my place and see my demand curve?”). Good luck this week!!!

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionTypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Alex SmithKCOAKQBCASH/GPP$5,700 11.40%17.1022.80
Tyrod TaylorBUFSFQBCASH$5,300 10.60%15.9021.20
Jamaal CharlesKCOAKRBGPP$5,100 10.20%15.3020.40
James WhiteNECINRBCASH/GPP$4,100 8.20%12.3016.40
John BrownARINYJWRGPP$4,500 9.00%13.5018.00
Tavon AustinLADETWRGPP$3,900 7.80%11.7015.60
Charles ClayBUFSFTECASH/GPP$2,900 5.80%8.7011.60
Vernon DavisWASPHITEGPP$2,500 5.00%7.5010.00
TitansTENCLEDSTGPP$3,300 6.60%9.9013.20

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionTypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Brock OsweilerHOUINDQBGPP$6,90011.50%13.8020.70
Alex SmithKCOAKQBCASH/GPP$6,80011.33%13.6020.40
Ryan MathewsPHIWASRBGPP$6,50010.83%13.0019.50
Justin ForsettDETLARBGPP$4,9008.17%9.8014.70
Tavon AustinLADETWRGPP$5,7009.50%11.4017.10
Cameron MeredithCHIJAXWRGPP$5,4009.00%10.8016.20
Charles ClayBUFSFTECASH/GPP$5,3008.83%10.6015.90
Lance KendricksLADETTEGPP$4,5007.50%9.0013.50
Nick NovakHOUINDKCASH/GPP$4,5007.50%9.0013.50
TitansTENCLEDSTGPP$4,7007.83%9.4014.10

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOPPPositionTypePrice% of Total $Cash FPGPP FP
Carson PalmerARINYJQBCASH/GPP$11,300 11.30%16.9519.78
Tyrod TaylorBUFSFQBCASH$10,500 10.50%15.7518.38
James WhiteNECINRBCASH/GPP$8,100 8.10%12.1514.18
Bilal PowellNYJARIRBCASH$7,800 7.80%11.7013.65
John BrownARINYJWRGPP$8,800 8.80%13.2015.40
Tavon AustinLADETWRGPP$7,700 7.70%11.5513.48
Charles ClayBUFSFTECASH/GPP$5,600 5.60%8.409.80
Richard RodgersGBDALTECASH/GPP$5,600 5.60%8.409.80
BearsCHIJAXDSTGPP$4,600 4.60%6.908.05

 

Yahoo! – $200, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionTYPEPrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Marcus MariotaTENCLEQBCASH/GPP$2814.0%17.5021.00
Brock OsweilerHOUINDQBGPP$2412.0%15.0018.00
Pay up for RBN/AN/ARBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Pay up for RBN/AN/ARBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
John BrownARINYJWRGPP$189.0%11.2513.50
Brandon LaFellCINNEWRGPP$105.0%6.257.50
Charles ClayBUFSFTECASH/GPP$126.0%7.509.00
Richard RodgersGBDALTEGPP$115.5%6.888.25
TitansTENCLEDSTGPP$147.0%8.7510.50

 

 

 

Week 5 Recap

Top 3 Picks of Week 5

  1. Sammie Coates – Martavis Who?
  2. Brian Hoyer – Well, I was just expecting a decent performance…not 397 yards and a couple scores. Yowzas! Thank you, Brian!
  3. Tampa Bay DST – Death. Taxes. Derek Anderson turning the ball over multiple times. Yeeeeehaw!

Worst 3 Picks of Week 5

  1. Zach Ertz – Yeah, I didn’t see that coming. Ouch.
  2. Kyle Rudolph – In my blurb about him last week, I mentioned how the Texans were good at stopping the TE. Then I said to use him. Trust numbers, not the gut. Ugh.
  3. Jerick McKinnon – Yeah, that was not exactly a resounding performance…The worst part of all is that Asiata got 17 touches+targets to Jerick’s 23…not a good sign.

 

Week 5 Results

week5-results

 

After a second solid week in a row, all four of the sites are sitting above the thresholds I set out before the season. FantasyDraft and Yahoo! are clearly the top two performers of the season so far, followed by DraftKings and FanDuel.

 

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