Week 5 DraftKings Value Picks
October 2, 2014 | Ian Goldsmith
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Here is our Week 5 DFS Cheat Sheet with picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, DraftDay and Fantasy Elite
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Blake Bortles: $5200 – Jacksonville v. Pittsburgh
Bortles threw a couple of INT’s last week, but I was impressed with the rookie’s ability to extend plays with his legs and find the open, sure pass. He had a completion percentage of 78.4% in his first NFL start, which he was able to do by focusing on short passes, especially to his TE Clay Harbor. Pittsburgh’s defense is exploitable, as Mike Glennon was able to show last week. The Steelers should have no trouble taking an early lead with their multitude of offensive weapons, which will leave Bortles and the Jags in comeback mode. He should be passing early and often. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him throwing the ball 40+ times this week. He’s a tournament play with big potential.
Austin Davis: $5600 – St. Louis at Philadelphia
Jeff Fisher has made it clear that Davis is St. Louis’ QB for the rest of the season, and why not? After coming in for Shaun Hill in game 1, he has posted a completion percentage of 72.3%, which amazingly leads all QBs. He should be able to exploit Philly’s D who, while having a knack for big plays, lets opposing QBs to throw for 2.5 TDs per game. He is a bargain this week with a stellar matchup. Tournament play.
Rashad Jennings: $5500 – NY Giants v. Atlanta
Jennings is my clear value play of the week. The Falcons give up over 31 FP/game to opposing RBs and are especially bad at containing backs who can catch the ball, giving up nearly 7 receptions to RBs per game. With the efficiency that Eli Manning is showcasing, the Giants’ back should have no trouble exploiting holes in the Atlanta defensive line. He could be in for an absolutely monster game this week. I’m expecting high ownership of him in tournaments, but this is one instance where you want to follow the crowd. Cash and tournament play.
Chris Ivory: $3100 – NY Jets at San Diego
Ivory has quietly had a decent season so far, ranking 11th in standard leagues and 15th in PPR. His lowest DK score on the season is 11.7 and he is now the clear #1 RB for the Jets. Don’t believe me? Last week he had 17 carries to CJ2K’s 6 and 6 targets to CJ2K’s 2. Rex wants Ivory involved; that much is clear. For some inexplicable reason, Ivory’s price on DraftKings dropped to $3100. I thought it was a misprint at first, but it is not. He is averaging over four times what his price is this week and faces a Chargers’ team that is exploitable by RBs that can catch the ball. San Diego’s defense has allowed RBs to catch 8.5 passes per game. On a PPR site like DK, that is pure gold. Ivory will be in almost every one of my lineups. I’m using him in every type of contest.
Kelvin Benjamin: $4800 – Carolina v. Chicago
This is another price that I simply don’t understand. Why so cheap? Chicago isn’t that good against WRs, giving up nearly 26 FP/game. If Carolina wants to win, they will have to pass the ball often as their running back corps is mostly hobbled by injuries. Expect Newton to go to his prized rookie wideout often as Carolina tries to keep this game close against the Bears. Benjamin had one down week against a stellar Lions’ defense, but has otherwise caught at least 5 passes per week. His consistency and upside make Kelvin a play in all types of contests this week.
Rueben Randle: $3900 – NY Giants v. Atlanta
Randle busted out last week against the Redskins, but it really shouldn’t have been seen as a surprise. He has received at least 7 targets in each of the past 3 games, with Eli looking his way 10 times in each of the past two. Odell Beckham Jr. should finally make an appearance this week, but that shouldn’t be a worry for Randle owners. This game should be one of the highest scoring games of the weekend. Vegas thinks so, too, as they have the game at a 50.5 O/U. There should be plenty of room for Eli to make a number of receivers fantasy relevant. At only $3900, Randle just needs roughly 11 FP to justify his price. Tournament play.
Clay Harbor: $3000 – Jacksonville v. Pittsburgh
Clay came out of nowhere and instantly become Blake Bortles’ favorite target, catching 8 passes for 69 yards. Pittsburgh may seem like a formidable opponent, but they do give up the 6th most fantasy points to TEs. Bortles will likely look Harbor’s way again as a safety valve against the Steelers. At minimum salary, Harbor has an excellent chance to exceed value once again. Tournament play.
Travis Kelce: $3000 – Kansas City at San Francisco
Well, well. Kelce finally busted out and what a way to do it in a prime time telecast on Monday Night. The problem for you? Everybody knows about his skills! The other problem for you? His price dropped to $3000 and everybody will be starting him in tournaments. He represents the potential for the best value of the week if Andy Reid utilizes him like he did last week. Even if he doesn’t and Kelce regresses to his earlier season numbers, don’t fret. He averaged nearly 11 FP/game in the first three weeks, which would be good for 3.67 times value at his minimum price. Oh, by the way….this is the first time Alex Smith has faced San Francisco since he was traded. Revenge much? Kelce is worth starting in cash games and tournaments.
Ryan Fitzpatrick does not scare me in the slightest, especially not after the way Dallas willed Drew Brees into poor play last Sunday night. Dallas’ defense certainly gives up a lot of yards, but they make up for it with aggressiveness. They average 1.3 interceptions per game so far this season and have scored at least 9 FP in three straight games. It doesn’t hurt that DeMarco Murray is destroying opposing teams and allowing his defense to rest. The Cowboys are a tournament play. If Arian Foster can’t play for Houston, they could have a field day.
San Diego: $3100
San Diego predictably forced Bortles into a couple turnovers last week. While the rookie had a good completion percentage, the Chargers were just too much to handle. Geno Smith, I would argue, is worse than the rookie San Diego faced last week. If Rex Ryan sticks with him this week, then San Diego could tee off. I don’t believe in Smith and neither should you. I don’t like listing defenses as cash plays, but they may be the safest defense option this week.
Week 4 Recap
I hope you took advantage of the picks last week, because there was some major value to be had. Travis Kelce was by far the best pick, scoring over 23 FP with a miniscule $3.7K salary. Keenan Allen and Golden Tate (who I like a lot this week again) both busted out and Romo made quick work of the Saints’ defense. Pittsburgh’s defense looked good early, but the Steelers became complacent and ended up losing to the overmatched, but hungrier Bucs. Eddie Lacy showed promise with an early TD, but last week was the Aaron Rodgers show.
Travis Kelce: 6.3 Points Per Thousand ($DK)
Keenan Allen: 5
Golden Tate: 4.81
Tony Romo: 3.65
San Diego: 3.23
Blake Bortles: 2.5
Eddie Lacy: 2.3
Donald Brown: 1.74
Antonio Gates: 1.36