Week 5 DFS Value Picks October 9, 2015  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

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One of the best ways to separate yourself from the crowd in DFS is to be able to find players that are priced below where they should be for their potential output. Sometimes this is easy (e.g. when a starting RB is injured after prices are released and their low-priced backup all of a sudden is in line for a lot more work), sometimes it isn’t and requires a lot more research and – as is often the case – luck. However, as they say, preparation begets luck. Below, you’ll see six tables, each covering value plays from a different daily fantasy website. Picks are provided for DraftDay, DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyAces, FantasyDraft and StarsDraft (formerly Victiv).

There are three picks for each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE). You will see one cash pick, one tournament pick, and one high risk/high reward pick that should usually only be used in GPPs with thousands of players (such as the Million Dollar contests on FD and DK). The high risk/high reward pick will be listed as Hail Mary. The prices for each pick are capped at $2,000 above the minimum value for sites with a $50,000 salary cap and $4,000 for sites with a $100,000, though there are a few exceptions (e.g. StarsDraft has much lower minimum values, which throws things off a bit).  So, for instance, you won’t see a DraftKings QB listed for more than $7,000 because the minimum price for a QB on DK is $5,000 and the salary cap is $50,000. You get the idea. You’ll also see the following columns:

Game Type: Is this a CASH (50/50, head-to-head), GPP (tournament), or Hail Mary (high risk/high reward for huge tournaments).

% of Total $: This tells you what percentage of your salary cap is being used up by using this player.

50/50 Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in 50/50 games.

GPP Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs).

Note: I generally aim for more than what is needed to actually cash. For example, in 2014 you needed an average of 111.21 FP and 121.85 FP to cash in 50/50s and GPPs on FanDuel, respectively. This equates to multiples of 1.85 and 2.03, though in the tables below the numbers I have listed assume FanDuel multiples of 2 for 50/50s and 2.5 for GPPs. If you can hit the multiples below, you’ll have a better chance of actually cashing. It’s obviously not a guarantee that you’ll cash – sometimes you can win a GPP on DraftKings with 180 FP, other times it takes 303! – but on average, hitting these numbers will give you a baseline for your expectations. Remember: Always aim for more. These picks should help act as a starting point in your research for low-priced, high-upside players. Remember, these picks have been made well ahead of time. Anything can happen between now and Sunday.

Before going further, I’ve compiled a small table showing what you would have needed to cash in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and the FanDuel Sunday Million through the first four weeks of the season. You’ll see the average needed to win as well as the equivalent multiple. Week 4’s low scoring brought the average back down considerably.

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Quick Notes for Week 5

With Steve Smith out for at least one week and Crockett Gilmore likely out as well, everything is in place for  Kamar Aiken to have a fantastic game against the Cleveland Browns. He has been the epitome of a Boom-or-Bust play this year: 0.9, 12.9, 0, 18.7. Talk about a tournament only option, folks! Well, he’ll clearly be the #1 receiving option this week (well, at least he should be) for Flacco and Co. He’s cheap on almost every site ($3,100 on StarsDraft, $3,800 on DraftKings, etc.). Fortunately, he didn’t have a monster game like Rishard Matthews the week before, so I think he’ll fly under the radar somewhat and his ownership will be lower than it should be (that is, he won’t have Week 4 Karlos Williams-type ownership numbers). If you want to take a bit bigger risk, Aiken’s teammate Marlon Brown is also an option in tournaments.

There is ZERO reason for you to pay up for QB this week. ZERO. (Well, I won’t smite you if you choose Brady.) Look at a few of the QBs you can get for under $6,000 on DraftKings (whose matchups I like): Tyrod Taylor, Alex Smith, Jameis Winston, Joe Flacco and Michael Vick (yeah, yeah…Vick is on this list)….and that’s leaving out quite a few. You can save your money and spend it on LeVeon Bell, Gronk, and any other elites you desire.

When will the mighty Patriots RB #33 get some love? When I say?! Dion Lewis just can’t get no recognition. Everyone always blames Belichick for having poor fantasy RBs, but who are they really talking about? Hell, this is the same coach and team that brought you PPR gods like of Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen and Kevin Faulk. Come on, people! To be fair, his price has risen on some sites, but not enough for what his production warrants. I love the matchup against Dallas, even with Sean Lee playing (he passed concussion protocol). I’m wandering off again, aren’t I?? When you’re happy and you know it, start Dion on PPR sites already. Geez.

Here we go…….ready for this one? Derek Carrier. The Washington TE is the last man standing with Reed ruled out for the week. Cousins is a big fan of throwing it to his TEs and I expect no less this week, even with a name few of us outside of Washington know. He was acquired this offseason from the Niners and has career totals of 9 catches for 105 yards. Hey, you have to start somewhere, right? This is the week. Tournament play only, however.

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So, let’s take a quick look at how we did in week 4.

 

Week 4 Recap

While scoring across the board was down dramatically from last week’s fantasy point explosion, my week 4 value picks did quite well across the board. In fact, the picks showed the highest multiple return of the year on four of the six sites: DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyAces and Fantasy Draft. The good results were led by very solid performances by tight ends, specifically Charles Clay, Coby Fleener and Martellus Bennett.

Karlos Williams, by far the most popular value play of the week across the industry, came through with a late receiving TD and finished with a very respectable 16 FP on full PPR sites. Cecil Shorts, who unfortunately dislocated his shoulder in the game and was out Thursday against the Colts, came through in garbage time against the Falcons and finished with a very productive day – 18.7 and 15.7 in 1 and 0.5 PPR, respectively. Do we care that all the production came after the Texans were down 42-0? No way!

There weren’t a lot of misses this week, but Marvin Jones stood out as a disappointment. The Bengals were able to beat the Chiefs in so many different ways that Dalton didn’t need to use him as another weapon out there. Percy Harvin was another disappointment as the Giants were able to shut down everyone in the Bills’ offense except Clay.

Best Week 4 Picks: Charles Clay  (Every site), Martellus Bennett (All except SD), Cecil Shorts (DD, DK, FDraft, SD)

Worst Week 4 Picks: Marvin Jones (DK, FD, FDraft, SD), Percy Harvin (DD, FD, FA, FDraft), Ryan Mallett (DD, FD)

Note: The results exclude Alfred Blue. I only advised to use him if Foster sat, which did not happen (though it seemed like it did – sheesh!).

Week 4 Results

Week 4 Results

Now that that’s all out of the way….onto the DFS value picks for Week 5!

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If you have any questions, please leave a message down below or hit me up on Twitter @ianrgold.

Note: I originally had Martavis Bryant in one of the DraftDay slots, but it looks like he’ll probably miss Monday’s game. In his place, I’ve put Jamison Crowder, who is minimum salary. He’ll get another start with Jackson still on the shelf and should get plenty of looks from Cousins once more.

 

DraftDay – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Joe FlaccoBALCLEQBCASH$13,90013.9%20.927.8
Michael VickPITSDQBGPP$12,85012.9%19.325.7
Jay CutlerCHIKCQBHail Mary$13,95014.0%20.927.9
Duke JohnsonCLEBALRBCASH$8,7508.8%13.117.5
Chris ThompsonWASATLRBGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Boobie DixonBUFTENRBHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Kamar AikenBALCLEWRCASH$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Willie SneadNOPHIWRGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Jamison CrowderWASATLWRHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Charles ClayBUFTENTECASH$9,7509.8%14.619.5
Owen DanielsDENOAKTEGPP$7,1507.2%10.714.3
Derek CarrierWASATLTEHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Alex SmithKCCHIQBCASH$5,50011.0%16.522.0
Joe FlaccoBALCLEQBGPP$5,60011.2%16.822.4
Josh McCownCLEBALQBHail Mary$5,10010.2%15.320.4
Dion LewisNEDALRBCASH$4,8009.6%14.419.2
Danny WoodheadSDPITRBGPP$4,6009.2%13.818.4
Todd GurleySTLGBRBHail Mary$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Kamar AikenBALCLEWRCASH$3,8007.6%11.415.2
Willie SneadNOPHIWRGPP$3,0006.0%9.012.0
Marlon BrownBALCLEWRHail Mary$3,0006.0%9.012.0
Charles ClayBUFTENTECASH$4,1008.2%12.316.4
Delanie WalkerTENBUFTEGPP$3,8007.6%11.415.2
Owen DanielsDENOAKTEHail Mary$2,7005.4%8.110.8

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Josh McCownCLEBALQBCASH$6,70011.2%13.416.8
Jameis WinstonTBJAXQBGPP$6,40010.7%12.816.0
Michael VickPITSDQBHail Mary$6,50010.8%13.016.3
Danny WoodheadSDPITRBCASH$6,00010.0%12.015.0
LeGarrette BlountNEDALRBGPP$6,20010.3%12.415.5
Boobie DixonBUFTENRBHail Mary$4,5007.5%9.011.3
Kamar AikenBALCLEWRCASH$5,8009.7%11.614.5
Willie SneadNOPHIWRGPP$5,3008.8%10.613.3
Marlon BrownBALCLEWRHail Mary$4,5007.5%9.011.3
Charles ClayBUFTENTECASH$5,7009.5%11.414.3
Delanie WalkerTENBUFTEGPP$5,4009.0%10.813.5
Derek CarrierWASATLTEHail Mary$4,5007.5%9.011.3

 

FantasyAces – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Alex SmithKCCHIQBCASH$6,00012.0%18.024.0
Joe FlaccoBALCLEQBGPP$5,95011.9%17.923.8
Josh McCownCLEBALQBHail Mary$5,65011.3%17.022.6
T.J. YeldonJAXTBRBCASH$4,5009.0%13.518.0
LeGarrette BlountNEDALRBGPP$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Daniel HerronBUFTENRBHail Mary$3,9007.8%11.715.6
Kamar AikenBALCLEWRCASH$4,0008.0%12.016.0
Allen HurnsJAXTBWRGPP$4,4508.9%13.417.8
Marlon BrownBALCLEWRHail Mary$3,8007.6%11.415.2
Delanie WalkerTENBUFTECASH$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Antonio GatesSDPITTEGPP$4,3508.7%13.117.4
Derek CarrierWASATLTEHail Mary$3,0006.0%9.012.0

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOPPPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Alex SmithKCCHIQBCASH$10,70010.7%16.121.4
Joe FlaccoBALCLEQBGPP$11,10011.1%16.722.2
Jameis WinstonTBJAXQBHail Mary$10,30010.3%15.520.6
Danny WoodheadSDPITRBCASH$9,3009.3%14.018.6
T.J. YeldonJAXTBRBGPP$8,4008.4%12.616.8
Chris ThompsonWASATLRBHail Mary$6,5006.5%9.813.0
Kamar AikenBALCLEWRCASH$7,5007.5%11.315.0
Allen HurnsJAXTBWRGPP$8,7008.7%13.117.4
Willie SneadNOPHIWRHail Mary$6,9006.9%10.413.8
Charles ClayBUFTENTECASH$8,8008.8%13.217.6
Delanie WalkerTENBUFTEGPP$8,3008.3%12.516.6
Derek CarrierWASATLTEHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0

 

StarsDraft (Victiv) – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Peyton ManningDENOAKQBCASH$6,40012.8%16.019.2
Alex SmithKCCHIQBGPP$5,80011.6%14.517.4
Jameis WinstonTBJAXQBHail Mary$5,30010.6%13.315.9
Boobie DixonBUFTENRBCASH$2,8005.6%7.08.4
Chris ThompsonWASATLRBGPP$2,5005.0%6.37.5
Andre WilliamsNYGSFRBHail Mary$3,5007.0%8.810.5
Kamar AikenBALCLEWRCASH$3,1006.2%7.89.3
Willie SneadNOPHIWRGPP$2,5005.0%6.37.5
Pierre GarconWASATLWRHail Mary$3,6007.2%9.010.8
Charles ClayBUFTENTECASH$3,9007.8%9.811.7
Delanie WalkerTENBUFTEGPP$3,8007.6%9.511.4
Derek CarrierWASATLTEHail Mary$2,2004.4%5.56.6

 

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