Week 4 Starts and Sits October 2, 2015  |  Chet


 

Another week, another installment of fantasy football start and sit recommendations from yours truly!  As in previous iterations, the Week 4 Starts and Sits aim to take advantage of good match-ups and potential for favorable game flow.  This week’s video came together a little more hastily than usual, but I attempted to better describe the positive and negative player situations based on team DVOA rankings.  I’ve also added my start and sit recommendations for each match-up to the game flowbotics spreadsheet.  I hope these improvements are useful, but if the layout ever becomes too busy or cluttered for your weary fantasy-addled brains, please let me know so I can scale back the disarray of data.  With that said, let’s get to the links, video, and picks:

2015 Game Flowbotics (Week 4)

TFF’s Week 4 Staff Rankings

Starts

QB

  • Tyrod Taylor vs. NYG:  If we were still drafting, his ADP would still be rising.  #TyrodUppercut
  • Andy Dalton vs. KC:  The Chiefs have been stout against the run.  Dalton should continue to produce through the air.
  • Derek Carr @ CHI:  I was in on Carr in the preseason, but this is the first week I’d confidently use him in 1-QB leagues.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick @ MIA:  This is a call for 2-QB leagues, but Fitzy should be startable across the pond.
  • Blake Bortles @ IND:  Could this seem like a horrible call halfway through the game like Alex Smith last week?  Sure, but Smith made up a lot of ground in garbage time.

RB

  • Latavius Murray @ CHI:  Bearish on the Bears, natch.
  • Karlos Williams vs. NYG:  Everyone is on this play already, but let me be the umpteenth analyst to recommend Williams.
  • Joseph Randle @ NO:  Weeden won’t win games for the ‘Boys by himself.  They should lean on the run.
  • Melvin Gordon vs. CLE:  The Vegas spread predicts a decisive Chargers victory and the Browns struggle against the run, which projects a very positive Gordon game script.
  • Giovani Bernard vs. KC:  See Andy Dalton above.
  • Ronnie Hillman vs. MIN:  This is purely a dart-throw.  Turf toe continues to hamper C.J. Anderson and the Vikings are vulnerable against the run.

WR

  • Donte Moncrief vs. JAC:  Essentially an every-week starter.  I like him more than Hilton for most league types.
  • James Jones @ SF:  He’s no Jordy Nelson, but Jones is in the right place at the right time for fantasy purposes.
  • John Brown vs. STL:  Noted last week to always start Brown, but want to emphasize it in spite of his match-up this week after he missed points drawing DPIs last week.
  • Percy Harvin vs. NYG:  Sammy Watkins isn’t 100%, so more targets for Percy.
  • Michael Crabtree @ CHI:  Easy to recommend anyone facing Chicago’s defense, but Crabtree is getting plenty of looks regardless of opponent.  The hive mind presumed his fantasy demise too soon.
  • Marvin Jones vs. KC:  See Andy Dalton above.

TE

  • Jordan Reed vs. PHI:  Run him out every week as long as he’s healthy.  Targets aplenty.
  • Eric Ebron @ SEA:  Taking a risk here, but Ebron’s shown consistency.  His size could make him match-up-proof.
  • Coby Fleener vs. JAC:  Assuming Dwayne Allen sits again.
  • Kyle Rudolph @ DEN:  Tough match-up, but more so for wideouts than tight ends.

Sits

QB

  • Sam Bradford @ WAS:  Not a terrible match-up, really, but perhaps a terrible QB?
  • Ryan Tannehill vs. NYJ:  Travelling to London to face a fearsome defense.  I still believe in Tanny, but I’ll be looking elsewhere for my QBs this week.
  • Alex Smith @ CIN:  By DVOA, Cinci boasts the 2nd-best passing defense in the NFL.
  • Matthew Stafford @ SEA:  Less appealing than Kirk Cousins and Brandon Weeden this week.  Yikes.
  • Teddy Bridgewater @ DEN:  Injuries to his receivers aren’t helping what was already a horrible match-up.

RB

  • Lamar Miller vs. NYJ:  See Ryan Tannehill above.
  • Doug Martin vs. CAR:  Hasn’t looked great so far and now he’s dinged up.
  • Isaiah Crowell @ SD:  He’s the bizarro Melvin Gordon.  The match-up isn’t bad, but the game flow should be.
  • Alfred Morris vs. PHI:  Eagles are solid against rushers and Matt Jones isn’t going away.
  • Todd Gurley @ ARI:  This reeks of a timeshare.
  • Andre Ellington vs. STL:  The Rams are a tough opponent and he might not play much, if at all.

WR

  • Brandin Cooks vs. DAL:  Performed just fine with Verizon McCown under center, but not so much that I’m excited to use him going forward.
  • Golden Tate @ SEA:  Revenge game?  Nah.
  • Terrance Williams @ NO:  Similar to Cooks, QB concerns give me pause with Williams.
  • Torrey Smith vs. GB:  Always a threat to catch a deep ball, but the threat of a goose egg looms larger.
  • Ty Montgomery @ SF:  Volume not guaranteed, Aaron Rodgers might only throw to Randall Cobb and James Jones.
  • Andre Johnson vs. JAC:  Feels wrong to write him off after only 3 weeks, but AJ looks done.

TE

  • Jordan Cameron vs. NYJ:  See Ryan Tannehill and Lamar Miller above, with the added whammy of injury concerns.
  • Zach Ertz @ WAS:  There’s a legitimate disconnect between his perceived value and actual value.  Don’t buy based solely on a name.
  • Vernon Davis vs. GB:  A decent match-up, but his knee injury worries me.
  • Gary Barnidge @ SD:  He torched the Raiders, but most tight ends do.  I’m not buying yet.

Thanks for reading/watching and good luck this week.

2 Responses

  1. gregsauce says:

    @Brion: If I have to guess, Luck will play.

    At RB this week, I rank those guys Anderson, Ivory, Foster (assuming a full-go), then DeMarco. At WR, I rank them Cooper (9), Jones (18), then Brown (22). As you can see Jones and Brown are close, but the difference in match-up gives Jones a bump.

    FYI, you can always find my rankings in the TFF Staff rankings that are linked in these articles and the spreadsheet. Good luck this week!

  2. Brion says:

    Your work is helpful and insightful.

    Do you think Luck will play?
    RB: Rank: Ivory, C J Anderson, D. Murray, and Foster if you think he will play.

    WR: Mistake 1, I started Smith. So rank Amari Cooper, James jones, John Brown, for the other 2 slots this week. I know you like Jones and Brown but does Cooper outrank either of them?

    Thanks!

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