Week 4 DraftKings Value Picks September 25, 2014  |  Ian Goldsmith


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Check out our Week 4 DFS Cheat Sheet with picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, DraftDay and Fantasy Elite

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QUARTERBACKS

 

Tony Romo: $6700 – Dallas v. New Orleans

Romo has been infuriating thus far in 2014. With only one game above 17 FP, how can he not be? He has become progressively better in each game, however. In last week’s game against St. Louis, he completed nearly 80% of his passes. This week will give Romo a chance to break out and have a complete game. New Orleans’ defense has taken a step back from the DST powerhouse it was last season, which is somewhat surprising given their additions to the secondary during the offseason. They are not going to right the ship on Sunday night in what may be the highest scoring game of the weekend (53 O/U). Romo has a chance to go off. Pair him with Terrance Williams or Dez Bryant for what could be a wicked combo. Tournament play.

 

Blake Bortles: $5800 – Jacksonville at San Diego

Why start a rookie? This is not for the faint of heart, but at his low price he is worth a look in your tournaments as a contrarian play. Bortles will not be heavily owned, that much is certain. Rookies in their first start rarely are. He does have some positives going for him, however. He has a great arm (miles beyond anything Chad Henne can offer), is relatively mobile in the pocket and is not afraid to take chances. The Jaguars are not going to win against San Diego. They simply don’t have the firepower. Bortles will, however, get every chance in the world to score big during garbage time. Cecil Shorts and the two Allen rookie WRs – Hurns and Robinson – offer Bortles some legitimate receiving options. San Diego has given up 18+ FP to opposing QBs this season so far. Bortles is worth a flier on a team or two. Tournament only.

 

RUNNING BACKS

 

Eddie Lacy: $5600 – Green Bay at Chicago

Everybody bemoaning Lacy’s start needs to be quiet. He has faced the #1, #2 and #5 running defense in the NFL. Think you could do better against the Jets, Lions or Seahawks? I thought not. This week he will finally get on track against a Bears team that is giving up 4.9 YPC and over 6 catches to RBS each week. Lacy got the better of Chicago last year and will again this week. You won’t see his price dip below $6000 for the rest of the season; buy low. Cash with tournament upside.

 

Donald Brown: $5400 – San Diego v. Jacksonville

I don’t particularly think that Brown is a highly skilled running back. What I do know, however, is that he is going to get the ball…a lot. San Diego should have no trouble handling Blake Bortles in his first career start. They should get out to a big lead early and lean on Brown throughout the second half. He had 31 carries last week. 31!! That is outrageous. His involvement in the passing game makes him a fairly safe play this week. Cash with tournament upside if he scores a TD or two.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

 

Keenan Allen: $5300 – San Diego v. Jacksonville

I’ve heard a lot of rumblings from people who think that it may be best to avoid San Diego players this week outside of Donald Brown. Their reason? San Diego will go up by a lot of points really early and rely on the run. Well, that’s just silly. Jacksonville is the gift that gives to every position. They give up over 23 FP to QBs, 24+ to WRs, 30+ to RBs and nearly 18 to TEs! Oh, and they let DSTs scorch them for 15 FP per game. Allen has been underwhelming to say the least. Like Lacy, this is his chance to breakout. Tournament play only because of his inconsistency so far this season!

 

Golden Tate: $4700 – Detroit at NY Jets

Oh Tate, you tease me. You are a rock in my redraft leagues, but can’t quite get it done in DFS. Well, that’s about to change. The Jets are giving up the 3rd most FP to WRs so far this season. They are 27th against opposing WR1s and 29th against WR2s. Stafford should have a field day this week. The best news for Tate might be that the game is being played at MetLife Stadium. Geno Smith is a much better QB at home than on the road and should be able to keep the Jets competitive in this game. Tournament play, but his consistency warrants further consideration and may be usable in cash games because of his price.

 

TIGHT ENDS

 

Antonio Gates: $4400 – San Diego v. Jacksonville

Jacksonville is the worst team in the NFL against TEs. Gates is a TE. Start Gates.

Bonus: He was nonexistent last week and his price plummeted! Yay! Tournament play because of all the options in San Diego.

 

Travis Kelce: $3700 – Kansas City v. New England

Kelce is quickly becoming a reliable part of the Kansas City offense. For those of you who haven’t been paying attention, Kelce’s snap count has increased each week, from 19 to 32 to 47 against Miami. He has at least 3 catches in each game so far and is perhaps already a top 3 receiving option on the team. The Chiefs would be wise to utilize more two TE sets and get him on the field even more often than last week. At only $3700, he’s useful in tournaments for upside or in cash games to limit losses.

 

DSTs

 

San Diego: $3100

Yes, I am picking on Jacksonville. Why? Because they are Jacksonville. Bortles does have the potential for some garbage time points, but I think San Diego should do enough damage in the first three quarters to warrant a start. Cash or tournament play.

 

Pittsburgh: $2900

I’m actually a bit worried that this could be a trap game for Pittsburgh. They are big favorites at home and coming off a huge win at Carolina. They did, however, lose some key starters on defense. Tampa will be starting Glennon at QB this week. Say what you will, but Glennon performed admirably last season and formed a rapport with Vincent Jackson. That being said, Pittsburgh’s upside in this game is huge. They have a clear chance at double digits, which shouldn’t be discounted. Tournament play.

 

WEEK 3 RECAP

 

Steve Smith really looks like he’s found the perfect system in Baltimore. Gary Kubiak has found a new go-to receiver and it is paying dividends for the 35 year old Smith so far. His price has yet to catch up with his production and he gets a revenge matchup this week against his former team. Wilson was solid in all parts of his game and even caught a pass – bonus! Brown had a heavy workload for San Diego and will be very involved going forward until Mathews is ready to return. Tannehill really missed some opportunities against a very exploitable Kansas City defense. He is just so dang inaccurate: 48.8% completion against the Chiefs. He would have been wise to use Clay more often as a safety net. As it was, he didn’t and both Miami picks here faltered. Donnell was targeted heavily once again, but lost a fumble. It didn’t cost his team, so he should still have the confidence of Coughlin for the time being. At only $4600, he is worth a look again this week. Tate underwhelmed, but one major positive is that he has caught at least 5 passes in all three games this season. He is clearly the #2 passing option in the Lions’ offense and should bust out soon. Houston D? Meh. I’d like to think they were a victim of Foster sitting out, but let’s be honest. They stunk it up in a fantastic matchup.

 

Steve Smith: 4.02 Points Per Thousand ($)

Donald Brown: 3.97

Russell Wilson: 3.53

Larry Donnell: 2.375

Ryan Tannehill: 2.08

Golden Tate: 2.02

New Orleans: 1.875

Khiry Robinson: 1.77

Charles Clay: 1.46

Houston: 0.592

 

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