Week 4 DraftDay Picks
September 27, 2014 | Justin Edwards
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Things are starting to make a little more sense in this young 2014 season. Going into Week 4 we’ve seen injuries and awful defenses and surprising teams and rookies and NFL players hitting people they shouldn’t be hitting and all-in-all we know a lot more now than we did in Week 1. We’ll know even more come Week 8 but nobody’s got time for that. Each week in #DFS is a precious week because it could be the week we bink off and make our bankroll and our wallets fat!
Let’s delve into some guys that will help us do just that.
Three tiers or levels of players I will be looking at:
Arrogant Bastard: Some of the best around and a price tag to match
Budweiser: Solid choice with a solid price
Natural Light: The cheapest you can find while still obtaining value
Arrogant Bastard – Philip Rivers ($13,350)
Philip Rivers has had an efficient year through three weeks against some very good defenses, throwing 6 TDs to only 1 INT while averaging almost 8 yards/attempt. This week he gets a Jacksonville team that is allowing 8+ yards/attempt and 306 yards/game. The Jaguars have allowed a whopping 8 TDs through the air while only managing to pick the ball off once. Rivers and his WRs are some good options to look at this weekend.
Budweiser – Tony Romo ($12,750)
Amid back problems and an absolutely uncanny ability to throw pick-6’s Tony’s year hasn’t gone quite as planned. On the bright side he has completed 67% of passes this week, including a whopping 78% last week. He admitted to feeling better or “stronger” after the game so maybe his nice play is a sign of things to come. Week 4 would be a good time to get back into good shape as he’ll have to lead an offense to many-a-point if they want to outscore the New Orleans Saints.
Natural Light – Teddy Bridgewater ($9,600)
Why not, right? It would be nice if Matt Asiata or Corderralle Patterson could generate some steam out of the backfield and make sure our new fantasy toy has a little of the pressure taken off of him. Luckily we have his first career start against an Atlanta team that only has 3 sacks to go along with 387 yards allowed per game. I’m not expecting for Teddy to hop in the limelight and throw 300 yards with 3 TDs and 0 turnovers but for this price he could get away with 225-1-1 and still be worthwhile. Besides, it’ll be fun to stick it in everyone’s face that you won money while starting a rookie QB in his first ever start!
Arrogant Bastard – Matt Forte ($14,150)
Green Bay is currently giving up over 150 yards a game on the ground, including 110 yards to Marshawn Lynch week 1 and 99 total yards to Reggie Bush last week. Forte is a talent I would view superior to each, and let’s not forget he’s had atleast 7 targets through the air in each game so far. Matt will be licking his chops after having faced a 49ers and Jets defense that held him far below expectation. He won’t be denied a score for 4 straight weeks.
Budweiser – C.J. Spiller ($10,500)
The Texans D looked decent enough against the rush in the first two weeks of the season. They allowed over 100+ yards, but nothing exceptional. In Week 3 the Giants decided “Screw It!” and ran the ball 42 times, pushing the Texans back on their heels and racking up nearly 200 yards on the ground. If the Buffalo Bills are able to hand the ball off anywhere near that many times that means CJ Spiller could get his 15-18 touches out of the backfield and he’s one of the best in the league at breaking one out. Houston is 5th worst in the league at allowing “Big Plays” which qualifies as a rush of 10+ or a pass of 25+. This looks like a good week to bet on CJ scoring that 60-yard TD we all know and love.
Natural Light – DeAngelo Williams ($8,300)
This is of course IF D-Will plays, as it seems that someone is sniping all of the RBs in Carolina these days…but so far it’s looking good as he’s been a full participant in practice since Wednesday. Jonathan Stewart will be sidelined with a knee injury and Mike “Bowling Ball” Tolbert will be nursing his thigh (while assumingly chugging pizza rolls) in Week 4. The Ravens don’t necessarily have a weak rush D but if 90% of the Panthers’ carries end up in DeAngelo’s chest he will be well worth this price tag.
Arrogant Bastard – Dez Bryant ($13,800)
While Drew Brees looks to pick apart the Dallas defense, Tony Romo will have plenty of reason to get the ball out to his favorite receiver time and again. New Orleans’ young secondary will have their hands full as they have all season, allowing the second most receptions to WRs so far this year. Saints are also on the road, where they struggle mightily for one reason or another. Plug Dez in where you can afford him and watch him catch a boatload on Sunday Night Football.
Budweiser – Michael Crabtree ($11,450)
Crabby had another wonderful game last week, bringing his target total over the last two weeks to 20. He has also received 7 red zone targets in that span, though that will surely take a hit if Vernon Davis is indeed well enough to play this Sunday. The return of the TE would undoubtedly eat into his production any other week but this Eagles’ defense is giving up a lot of yards through the air and the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs. There will be plenty of yards and touches to go around.
Natural Light – Jeremy Kerley ($6,650)
The Lions have been great against stopping the pass this year. But those teams rank 18th, 26th and 29th in rushing thus far, so Detroit didn’t have to worry about the ground game in any of those matchups. The Jets are a different story. They’re averaging 157 yards/game which ranks 2nd in the league. There will be a little more room to wriggle around in for the New York pass catchers and if Decker is still hampered by his hamstring Kerley is one of very few options. It won’t take a whole lot for him to earn is sub $7k price tag and I think he’ll get the modest 6-70-0 statline we will need out of him.
Arrogant Bastard – Jimmy Graham ($14,750)
If you’re going to pay big money for anybody in any position it’s gotta be this stud. He’s fun to play any time, against any defense, but this Cowboys defense is a special one. The banged up linebacker crew will have to cover Jimmy atleast some of the time and it really hasn’t mattered who guards the TE as Dallas has given up 27 receptions, 290 yards and 4 scores, allowing the most fantasy points to the position so far this year. Two of those starting TEs were Delanie Walker and Jared Cook. Jimmy Graham is not Delanie Walker or Jared Cook. A 12-150-1 line is quite fathomable.
Budweiser – Antonio Gates ($9,350)
Gates pretty much put up a goose egg last week but this week he gets to face up against this Jaguars defense that has been hot garbage against defending, well, anything, but particularly bad against the TE position. Before last week Antonio had 17 targets so it’s not as if Philip Rivers has forgotten who he is. Look for him to bounce back and probably even step into the end zone against Jacksonville.
Natural Light – Travis Kelce ($7,200)
If you’re looking for a cheap TE with a high ceiling, this could be your guy. Alex Smith has a long of 27 yards this year, so he’s not going deep down field. This New England defense should be able to put a good amount of pressure on the QB so look for Kelce to get a lot of looks in the underneath.
Arrogant Bastard – Indianapolis Colts ($5,800)
This isn’t incredibly expense and you could certainly pay more for a defense but I wanted to squeeze the Colts in for a second week in a row. After running into two strong offenses to start the year (Broncos, Eagles) they turned in a 1 DEF TD, 2 INT, 4 Sack line against a bumbling Jacksonville offense. Enter the Tennessee Titans who bring their 5 turnovers, 8 sacks allowed and whopping 14.3 pts/game (31st in the league) into Lucas Oil Stadium. Easy choice this week.
Budweiser – Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,000)
Simply put, Tampa Bay is barely breaking 160 Yds/Game passing and they have more interceptions than touchdowns. Which shouldn’t be too much of a surprise considering they only have 45 points so far this year. Mike Glennon may be starting in place of Josh McCown but that shouldn’t make too much of a difference as this TB offense has been feeding fantasy defenses every week.
Natural Light – Oakland Raiders ($4,100)
Unless the Dolphins are planning on handing the ball off to Lamar Miller 45 times they’re going to have to throw it. And that’s a good thing for any opposing defense, even if it is a mediocre D like the Raiders’. Tannehill is throwing a meek 56% completion rate which ranks 35th(!) in the league of anyone with at least 20 passing attempts. He is 2nd in the league with 124 passing attempts which just adds insult to injury. That adds up to a larger possibility for failure, and a larger possibility for some cheap fantasy points for this Oakland team.
Here’s how I’m going to incorporate my mixed bag of good, decent, and cheap beer bottles into a winning 10-pack:
QB Philip Rivers
QB Tony Romo
RB CJ Spiller
RB DeAngelo Williams
WR Michael Crabtree
WR Keenan Allen
TE Jimmy Graham
FLEX Jeremy Kerley
FLEX Bishop Sankey
DEF Raiders (Oak)
Welp, there’s my base lineup. Gonna take a flier on Bishop Sankey on the cheap there, just based off the big gains Indy has given up to speedy RBs over the year. I’ll switch things around for different games so I don’t end up losing my weekly bankroll just because of one guy’s zero.
Good luck fantasy nerds, hope you’re rolling in profit soon, and if not remember: “That’s the way she goes. Sometimes she goes, sometimes it doesn’t. She didn’t go. That’s the way she goes.”