Week 4 DFS Value Picks October 2, 2015  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

Check out our NFL DFS Cheat Sheet!

 

One of the best ways to separate yourself from the crowd in DFS is to be able to find players that are priced below where they should be for their potential output. Sometimes this is easy (e.g. when a starting RB is injured after prices are released and their low-priced backup all of a sudden is in line for a lot more work), sometimes it isn’t and requires a lot more research and – as is often the case – luck. However, as they say, preparation begets luck. Below, you’ll see six tables, each covering value plays from a different daily fantasy website. Picks are provided for DraftDay, DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyAces, FantasyDraft and StarsDraft (formerly Victiv).

There are three picks for each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE). You will see one cash pick, one tournament pick, and one high risk/high reward pick that should usually only be used in GPPs with thousands of players (such as the Million Dollar contests on FD and DK). The high risk/high reward pick will be listed as Hail Mary. The prices for each pick are capped at $2,000 above the minimum value for sites with a $50,000 salary cap and $4,000 for sites with a $100,000, though there are a few exceptions (e.g. StarsDraft has much lower minimum values, which throws things off a bit).  So, for instance, you won’t see a DraftKings QB listed for more than $7,000 because the minimum price for a QB on DK is $5,000 and the salary cap is $50,000. You get the idea. You’ll also see the following columns:

Game Type: Is this a CASH (50/50, head-to-head), GPP (tournament), or Hail Mary (high risk/high reward for huge tournaments).

% of Total $: This tells you what percentage of your salary cap is being used up by using this player.

50/50 Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in 50/50 games.

GPP Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs).

Note: I generally aim for more than what is needed to actually cash. For example, in 2014 you needed an average of 111.21 FP and 121.85 FP to cash in 50/50s and GPPs on FanDuel, respectively. This equates to multiples of 1.85 and 2.03, though in the tables below the numbers I have listed assume FanDuel multiples of 2 for 50/50s and 2.5 for GPPs. If you can hit the multiples below, you’ll have a better chance of actually cashing. It’s obviously not a guarantee that you’ll cash – sometimes you can win a GPP on DraftKings with 180 FP, other times it takes 303! – but on average, hitting these numbers will give you a baseline for your expectations. Remember: Always aim for more. These picks should help act as a starting point in your research for low-priced, high-upside players. Remember, these picks have been made well ahead of time. Anything can happen between now and Sunday.

Before going further, I’ve compiled a small table showing what you would have needed to cash in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and the FanDuel Sunday Million through the first three weeks of the season. You’ll see the average needed to win as well as the equivalent multiple.

DFS Winning Scores——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Quick Notes for Week 4

This is the first set of bye weeks, with New England and Tennessee sitting on the sidelines. Value plays such as Dion Lewis, Legarrette Blount and Marcus Mariota will take a back seat. Additionally, with the Miami/Jets game being played in London, many sites will not be offering the use of their players on normal Sunday/Monday slates. This potentially takes value plays such as Rishard Matthews, Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell and Ryan Fitzpatrick away as well, though they will still be available for people playing Thursday-Monday slates.

Charles Clay is still an excellent value this week. After a big week against his former team, his price only bumped up to $3,300. He has scored at least 8.3 FP per week on full PPR sites, which bodes well in a matchup against the Giants who are subpar against the tight end position. They’ve let Jordan Reed and Jason Witten waltz all over them. Clay has a great opportunity to add to the list this week. I think Clay will become even more of a focus for Tyrod Taylor if LeSean McCoy is forced to sit. While Karlos Williams has been playing well, he is going to have a much more difficult time against a Giants team that ranks second against the run in YPG.

With Brandon Weeden at the helm, Lance Dunbar should continue to see a lot of work in the short passing game. Even in a down week in Week 2, he was able to grab 3 balls for 51 total yards. It’s not a stretch to use him in cash games on full PPR sites, at least until Romo comes back. He is still near minimum salary across the fantasy landscape, so continue to keep an eye on him if you need a cheap, productive back. He’s been in my value picks each of the past two weeks and will continue to be so until his price climbs too high.

If LeSean McCoy sits, which seems increasingly likely, it will be hard not to roster Karlos Williams, who has been a revelation in Buffalo. The rookie has scored a TD in every game and will likely get 20+ touches this week if he starts. Although his ownership will likely be high, he’s going to be hard to ignore. Similarly, if Arian Foster sits, then I love Alfred Blue to continue his strong play that we all saw last week. Atlanta is far and away the worst fantasy defense against RBs in this early part of the season. Fortunately, the game is early, so we should know well before kickoff if Foster’s a go. Lastly, Thomas Rawls has a shot to be a great value once again. Unfortunately, you’ll have to be a much more risk-loving individual than I am as Seattle doesn’t play until Monday night. If Lynch is a go, Rawls is going to struggle to meet value, even at his low price.

 

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So, let’s take a quick look at how we did in week 3.

 

Week 3 Recap

Well, that St. Louis game was a fantasy wasteland for everyone not named Bell or Brown. Sheesh! Nick Foles was fairly accurate through three quarters, but the Rams couldn’t string anything together. Jared Cook was nonexistent. If you rostered both, then bye-bye fantasy lineups. Ugh. Fred Jackson was another disappointment for me. Granted, picking him was suggested only in large GPPs, so it wasn’t as bad as it could have been. Still, I was expecting him to get more than 3 touches, especially after Lynch went out. Rawls was the play. With so many high-end players having monster games (AJ Green, Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald, etc…), it was tough to cash anywhere if you had more than one poor piece in your lineup.

So, what went right? GARY BARNIDGE! Woo! If you weren’t yet convinced that Oakland is terrible against tight ends…Well, the proof is in the Barnidge. 6/105/1TD. What a line for a minimum salary player. Rishard Matthews also came up big, going off for a massive 6/113/2 line. He has been a target magnet for Tannehill, who should continue to look his way – at least until (if) DeVante Parker begins to get more involvement in the Dolphins offense. Charles Clay had a nice breakout game against his former team while Dion Lewis continued his early season surge. He seems to have cemented his playing time and could have had a monster game if the Patriots had not built up such a big lead.

The picks I gave for DraftDay, DraftKings and Fantasy Draft mostly panned out. The picks on StarsDraft were decent, but the picks on FanDuel and FantasyAces were mediocre and poor, respectively.

Best Week 3 Picks: Gary Barnidge (DD, DK, FDraft), Rishard Matthews (Every site), Charles Clay (DD, SD), Dion Lewis (DK, FDraft, SD)

Worst Week 3 Picks: Nick Foles (DK, FD, FA, FDraft, SD), Jared Cook (Every site), Fred Jackson (DD, DK, FD, FA, FDraft)

Week 3 Results

Week 3 Results

 

Now that that’s all out of the way….onto the picks for Week 4!

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If you have any questions, please leave a message down below or hit me up on Twitter @ianrgold.

 

Note: You’ll see asterisks next to guys whose value depends on other players. Thomas Rawls, for instance, is not worth picking up if Marshawn Lynch plays.

 

DraftDay – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Derek CarrOAKCHIQBCASH$13,90013.9%20.927.8
Ryan MallettHOUATLQBGPP$11,80011.8%17.723.6
Brandon WeedenDALNOQBHail Mary$11,00011.0%16.522.0
Lance DunbarDALNORBCASH$7,9007.9%11.915.8
Karlos WilliamsBUFNYGRBGPP$9,3509.4%14.018.7
Thomas Rawls*SEADETRBHail Mary$6,7006.7%10.113.4
Cecil Shorts IIIHOUATLWRCASH$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Percy HarvinBUFNYGWRGPP$9,1009.1%13.718.2
Ted Ginn Jr.CARTBWRHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Charles ClayBUFNYGTECASH$8,8508.9%13.317.7
Martellus BennettCHIOAKTEGPP$9,3509.4%14.018.7
Coby FleenerINDJAXTEHail Mary$6,1006.1%9.212.2

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Tyrod TaylorBUFNYGQBCASH$5,80011.6%17.423.2
Derek CarrOAKCHIQBGPP$5,30010.6%15.921.2
Blake BortlesJAXINDQBHail Mary$5,10010.2%15.320.4
Karlos WilliamsBUFNYGRBCASH$3,4006.8%10.213.6
Lance DunbarDALNORBGPP$3,6007.2%10.814.4
Alfred Blue*HOUATLRBHail Mary$3,9007.8%11.715.6
Cecil ShortsHOUATLWRCASH$3,5007.0%10.514.0
Marvin JonesCINKCWRGPP$3,8007.6%11.415.2
Ted Ginn Jr.CARTBWRHail Mary$3,5007.0%10.514.0
Jordan ReedWASPHITECASH$4,5009.0%13.518.0
Charles ClayBUFNYGTEGPP$3,3006.6%9.913.2
Martellus BennettCHIOAKTEHail Mary$4,5009.0%13.518.0

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Alex SmithKCCINQBCASH$6,50010.8%13.016.3
Ryan MallettHOUATLQBGPP$6,30010.5%12.615.8
Blake BortlesJAXINDQBHail Mary$6,80011.3%13.617.0
Karlos WilliamsBUFNYGRBCASH$6,30010.5%12.615.8
Thomas Rawls*SEADETRBGPP$6,00010.0%12.015.0
Alfred Blue*HOUATLRBHail Mary$6,40010.7%12.816.0
Donte MoncriefINDJAXWRCASH$6,30010.5%12.615.8
Percy HarvinBUFNYGWRGPP$5,7009.5%11.414.3
Marvin JonesCINKCWRHail Mary$5,5009.2%11.013.8
Charles ClayBUFNYGTECASH$5,2008.7%10.413.0
Martellus BennettCHIOAKTEGPP$5,5009.2%11.013.8
Coby FleenerINDJAXTEHail Mary$4,9008.2%9.812.3

 

FantasyAces – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Tyrod TaylorBUFNYGQBCASH$6,45012.9%19.425.8
Andy DaltonCINKCQBGPP$6,40012.8%19.225.6
Derek CarrOAKCHIQBHail Mary$6,40012.8%19.225.6
Karlos WilliamsBUFNYGRBCASH$4,4508.9%13.417.8
Thomas Rawls*SEADETRBGPP$4,0008.0%12.016.0
Alfred Blue*HOUATLRBHail Mary$4,5009.0%13.518.0
James JonesGBSFWRCASH$4,5009.0%13.518.0
Percy HarvinBUFNYGWRGPP$4,5009.0%13.518.0
Travis BenjaminCLESDWRHail Mary$4,3508.7%13.117.4
Charles ClayBUFNYGTECASH$4,5009.0%13.518.0
Martellus BennettCHIOAKTEGPP$4,3508.7%13.117.4
Coby FleenerINDJAXTEHail Mary$4,0008.0%12.016.0

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOPPPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Andy DaltonCINKCQBCASH$11,90011.9%17.923.8
Philip RiversSDCLEQBGPP$12,00012.0%18.024.0
Derek CarrOAKCHIQBHail Mary$10,70010.7%16.121.4
Lance DunbarDALNYGRBCASH$6,8006.8%10.213.6
Karlos WilliamsBUFNYGRBGPP$9,5009.5%14.319.0
Chris JohnsonAZSTLRBHail Mary$9,3009.3%14.018.6
Cecil Shorts IIIHOUATLWRCASH$6,9006.9%10.413.8
Percy HarvinBUFNYGWRGPP$9,7009.7%14.619.4
Marvin JonesCINKCWRHail Mary$7,4007.4%11.114.8
Charles ClayBUFNYGTECASH$7,7007.7%11.615.4
Martellus BennettCHIOAKTEGPP$9,3009.3%14.018.6
Coby FleenerINDJAXTEHail Mary$6,9006.9%10.413.8

 

StarsDraft (Victiv) – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Tyrod TaylorBUFNYGQBCASH$6,20012.4%15.518.6
Philip RiversSDCLEQBGPP$6,20012.4%15.518.6
Derek CarrOAKCHIQBHail Mary$5,70011.4%14.317.1
Karlos WilliamsBUFNYGRBCASH$4,5009.0%11.313.5
Lance DunbarDALNORBGPP$2,9005.8%7.38.7
Melvin GordonSDCLERBHail Mary$4,4008.8%11.013.2
James JonesGBSFWRCASH$3,7007.4%9.311.1
Marvin JonesCINKCWRGPP$3,9007.8%9.811.7
Cecil Shorts IIIHOUATLWRHail Mary$3,3006.6%8.39.9
Charles ClayBUFNYGTECASH$3,0006.0%7.59.0
Jordan ReedWASPHITEGPP$3,3006.6%8.39.9
Coby FleenerINDJAXTEHail Mary$2,7005.4%6.88.1

 

One Response

  1. Dan says:

    Great stuff Ian!
    Apprecite the info and your insight!

Leave a Reply

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