Week 4 DFS Value Picks
October 1, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Chalk Value Plays
Jordan Howard vs Detroit
Hmm…there could be a Bears theme in the works, but I won’t tell. The rookie Howard will be getting a huge opportunity this week as he gets the start in place of the injured Jeremy Langford. Though Detroit has not allowed a rushing score on the season, they have allowed over 5 yards per carry to opposing backs. Howard should get all the run he can handle, and has proven to be a receiving weapon as well in his limited chances so far. Last week he turned 4 receptions into 47 yards (with another 45 on the ground). For the price, the upside this week is fantastic.
DraftKings – $3,700; FanDuel – $5,600; FantasyDraft – $7,300; Yahoo! – $14
Hunter Henry vs New Orleans
Henry stepped in for Gates last week and proceed to have a better receiving game than Gates had in the first two weeks. If only he hadn’t fumbled the game away, we’d be talking a bit more about his very solid 5/72 line (catching all 5 targets thrown his way). He gets to face a New Orleans team that is offended by the word defense. His price is at or just slightly above minimum salary everywhere. At the very worst, you’ll probably get 4-6 points out of him, which wouldn’t kill your lineup. He’ll likely be highly owned, but his price gives you a ton of wiggle room if you want to roster Cam, AB, Le’Veon, etc.
DraftKings – $2,700; FanDuel – $4,500; FantasyDraft – $5,300; Yahoo! – $10
Terrelle Pryor @ Washington
I was so damn close to pulling the trigger last week and using him in my lineup last week……So close! Of course, all that matters is if someone was in your lineup or not. He was not. *Sigh* Well, that’s last week. There is no time for regrets! Pryor is still an excellent value on DraftKings, FantasyDraft, and Yahoo! His ownership will not doubt be high, but he is facing a porous defense that just lost DeAngelo Hall. Washington is ranked in the bottom 5 against WRs, and you know Hue Jackson will be using Pryor in both the run and pass games as well. Plus, the dude is just fun to watch. He loves playing, and is a hell of a competitor. Regardless of his fantasy output, I’m a fan.
DraftKings – $4,300; FantasyDraft – $8,400; Yahoo! – $17
Other Value Plays
Dwayne Washington @ Chicago
Theo Riddick proved last week that he is not a between-the-tackles type of runner. He excels as a pass-catcher, but the Lions would be foolish to use him again as their main RB on 1st and 2nd downs. Jim Bob Cooter knows this, and should be employing the rookie Washington much more often this week. One of my favorite parts of playing NBA DFS is scouring the news each day for players who will be getting a huge bump in opportunity. When a solid bench player like Cole Aldrich gets an unexpected start, you have to roster the guy because you know the number of touches (and fantasy scoring opportunities) will increase.
DraftKings – $3,800; FanDuel – $4,500; FantasyDraft – $7,400; Yahoo! – $10
Brian Hoyer vs Detroit
Hoyer was in the article last week and came through in a big way, with over 300 yards and 2TDs. The game script worked well for him, as the Bears fell behind early, and he was forced to pass often in an effort to catch up. While one shouldn’t chase points—or value, for that matter—there are always exceptions. The exceptions usually include the chased player having an excellent matchup, which Hoyer does. Detroit’s defense has been absolutely (insert your favorite adjective for terrible). They have been 2nd worst against QBs in this young season and have given no reason for any of us to think that will change. He’s well worth a roster spot at his low pricing. He’s minimum on DraftKings and only $23 on Yahoo.
DraftKings – $5,000; FanDuel – $6,000; FantasyDraft – $10,000; Yahoo! – $23
Zach Miller vs Detroit
It IS a Bears theme! Zach Miller, who went off last week for an outstanding 8/78/2 line, gets to line up against the woeful Lions TE defense this week. Though they didn’t give up much yardage to Green Bay TEs last week, they did give up a score to Richard Rodgers. Of course, Aaron Rodgers was looking (and finding) Jordy Nelson all day, so he had little need to find his TEs, unlike Hoyer, who should have to look Miller’s way often this week. I am happily throwing out some Bears stacks of Hoyer/Howard/Miller this week.
DraftKings – $2,700; FanDuel – $5,000; FantasyDraft – $5,000; Yahoo! – $16
Joe Flacco vs Oakland
Flacco has somewhat disappointed so far this season, but he gets a choice matchup this week at home against a Raiders team that has given up over 344 yards and 2 TDs per game to opposing signal callers. His price has hovered around 10-20% above minimum salary on most sites this season. His floor is fairly high, so he represents a solid play in cash games this week, but the upside is there for use in tournaments.
DraftKings – $5,900; FantasyDraft – $11,000
Carlos Hyde vs DAL
Hyde has gone up against three stout run defenses and come away with multi-touchdown performances in two of them. This included a 100+ yard performance against the Seahawks last week. It’s clear that whether the Niners are in the game or not, Chip Kelly will be using his lead back early and often. Though ranked in the middle of the pack against running backs, Hyde’s opponent Dallas has given up roughly 5 yards per carry and nearly 5 receptions per game to RBs. Given his guaranteed heavy workload, Hyde should be able to carve out a solid day on a site like DraftKings where he remarkably priced at $4,200.
DraftKings – $4,200; FantasyDraft – $8,400
Smith had a massive game in Week 1, a forgettable game in Week 2, and didn’t need to do much because of his defense in Week 3….this isn’t exactly someone you’ve been able to trust from a fantasy perspective so far. I love his matchup this week, however. The Steelers, who were absolutely embarrassed last week, will come out firing. If the Chiefs want to stay in the game, it’s going to be with Smith slinging (if you can call 10-yard outs slinging) balls to Maclin, Kelce, and Ware/Charles. The Steelers have given up less than 4 yards per carry, but they have given up seven receptions per game to opposing RBs….so look for Smith to find his RBs through the air. Pittsburgh will also be without Ryan Shazier, safety Robert Golden, and (potentially), CB Sean Davis, which bodes well. The over/under for this game is 47, so Vegas expects at least a moderately high scoring game. A Smith/Maclin stack will be a (very) low-owned, relatively high-upside stack this weekend.
DraftKings – $5,600; FanDuel – $6,900; FantasyDraft – $11,200
Good luck in Week 4, everybody!!!
OK, enough jibber-jabber. Below you’ll see four tables with my picks for the week. If you have any questions at all, hit me up in the comments or, preferably, on Twitter @ianrgold. I respond more quickly there.
Value Pick Tables
Picks are provided for DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyDraft and Yahoo!. There are two picks for each position, and one DST. Yes, I’ll even throw in kickers for FanDuel (well, ONE kicker). Why? Because I want to lose brain cells. The prices for each pick are loosely capped at 50% above the minimum value for that position. So, for instance, I’ll try to limit prices for running backs on DraftKings to $4,500. For QB’s, I’m limiting picks a bit further to 40% (if I didn’t, then this week I’d have my pick of 19 QBs!). Of course, there may be some weeks that few usable players fall under these thresholds, in which case I’ll up the limit a bit. These are arbitrary numbers of course. Everyone has their own idea of what a value pick is.
In the tables below, you’ll see a few columns. The basics are Player, Team, Opponent, Type of Game (Cash, GPP, or both), and Salary. In addition to these, you’ll see the following columns:
% of Total $: This is simply the percentage of your salary cap that a particular player takes.
Cash Points: This is a loose estimate of how many points a player needs to hit a value multiple for cash games. This varies from site to site. On DraftKings, for instance, you will generally want your team to score at lease 3 FP per $1,000 in salary (on Yahoo!, it’s FP/$1, not per $1,000). We’d call this a 3X multiple.
GPP Points: This is a loose estimate of how many points a player needs to hit a multiple in GPP games. On DraftKings, for instance, I generally aim for a multiple of 4.
Of course, it is always better to aim for more than these multiples. You don’t always need 4X value in order to cash on DraftKings, but you usually need more than that if you want to win one of the huge tournaments. Yes, there are some weeks where you can win tournaments with under 200 FP, but those weeks are few and far between. If everything goes right, players can score 300 fantasy points – a multiple of 6! So, aim for more. The economist in me always screams “more is better” (Also, doesn’t The Economist in Me sound like a terrible title for a porno? “Hey baby, want to come back to my place and see my demand curve?”). Good luck this week!!!
|Player||Team||Opponent||Position||Type||Price||% of Total $||50/50 Pts||GPP Pts|
|Player||Team||Opponent||Position||Type||Price||% of Total $||50/50 Pts||GPP Pts|
|Player||Team||OPP||Position||Type||Price||% of Total $||Cash FP||GPP FP|
|Player||Team||Opponent||Position||TYPE||Price||% of Total $||50/50 Pts||GPP Pts|
Quick Week 3 Recap
Well, my love for Miami proved to be a bit too heavy…I’m not saying you’d have done poorly stacking Tannehill with Landry, Parker, and the DST, but (other than Landry), the other three weren’t as potent as I’d hoped. Chalk it up to Hue Jackson’s planning and Terrelle Pryor’s mindblowing game. Cleveland, on their 3rd QB, played with heart and had a chance to win a game that nobody thought they would, but their dreams sailed wide left. Miami’s DST forced a turnover and had a few sacks, but 7 FP for their salary was simply not enough. Also, I’m done with Mariota. He was terrible (TERRIBLE!) in a great matchup. Tannehill did get nearly 25 FP on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, which was great, but was less overwhelming on FanDuel and Yahoo, as his fumbles counted more against him, and he didn’t get the 300 yard bonus.
So far, picks for FantasyDraft and Yahoo! are doing very well on the season, while picks for FanDuel and DraftKings have been underwhelming on average. Below are the best and worst picks of last week, along with a table of how picks are doing on the season. Cheers.
Top 3 Picks of Week 3
- Christine Michael – Though he was only value (by this article’s standard) on Yahoo, he came through in a huge way, with two early TDs and a 100+ yards on the ground.
- Charles Sims – Solid day for the chalk value play. With Martin out, it’s Sims’ turn to shine.
- Brian Hoyer – With Cutler out, I had a good feeling about Hoyer being able to rack up points against Dallas, given that they’d likely be behind and pass often. 300+ yards and 2TDs for minimum salary? Thanks, Hoyer!
Worst 3 Picks of Week 3
- Marcus Mariota – I’m done with him for now. I know he was without Walker, but not being able to beat that Oakland secondary is troubling. A true lineup killer.
- Phillip Dorsett – Late in the 4th quarter, I asked on Twitter “Is it too much to ask for a 75 yard TD to Dorsett?” Moments later T.Y. Hilton took a pass 63 yards to the end zone. Sigh. That was my day watching Dorsett. What an underwhelming performance.
- Mike Wallace – He ended up with a similarly disappointing line to that of Dorsett. Meh.
Week 3 Results