Week 4 DFS Cheat Sheet
October 3, 2015 | Chet
Welcome to Week 4 of The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Chet Gresham, Ian Goldsmith and Doug Shain, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, and Fantasy Aces, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those three. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our Week 1 Cheat Sheet to see what you get.
Draftkings 100% Deposit Bonus
Andrew Luck will not play according to Adam Schefter. Downgrade Hilton and Moncrief. Matt Hasselbeck becomes a cheap GPP play.
LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins are officially out. Play Karlos Williams at will and Percy Harvin gets a bump.
Alshon Jeffery is out. Martellus Bennett, Matt Forte and Eddie Royal should be Clausen’s go-to players all game. That might not mean that much, but against this Raiders defense there’s a chance it works out for them. UPDATE: Jay Cutler will play. Bennett and Forte should get a nice bump, along with Royal.
Drew Brees is listed as probable and will play. This helps all offensive positions a little.
Chris Ivory is probable, but the team isn’t 100% positive he’ll be able to play a full game with his calf not 100%. This makes it impossible to use him in DFS.
Eric Decker is still a game time decision. Brandon Marshall is the play in DFS, and should be fine whether Decker plays or not.
Arian Foster is a game time decision, but if he does go he’s worth playing in GPPs against the Falcons.
Alshon Jeffery is reportedly not playing and Jay Cutler is considered questionable. Martellus Bennett should see plenty of targets in a nice matchup, but Jimmy Clausen hurts his upside if he starts.
DeMarco Murray is questionable, but got full practices in Thursday and Friday. No Eagles running back is safe for DFS against Washington’s tough run defense.
Charles Johnson is out and Jarius Wright missed practice Wednesday and Thursday. Mike Wallace is going to see a lot of work, but the Broncos defense is too tough to trust him in DFS.
Marshawn Lynch didn’t practice Friday and is a game time decision for Monday night. Thomas Rawls would get the work if he can’t go. Rawls makes for a nice DFS value play, but is too risky since we won’t know Lynch’s status until after lineups are set.
Sample FanDuel Lineups
UPDATE: I didn’t put Julio Jones in the cheat sheet because of his price, but I’m finding that I still like the lineups with him and he’s as safe as it gets.
UPDATE: Jordan Matthews is a little worrisome with the rain forecasted. I’m going to pivot off him and go with Matt Forte and Randall Cobb. I’m feeling better about Forte, as he will be used extensively.
I will probably play this lineup in both GPP and cash games. I think Carr is safe, with a ton of upside.
UPDATED: I think Taylor can be used in cash games, but I prefer him in GPPs. I went cheap at wide receiver here so I could upgrade at kicker, tight end and defense. Big numbers from those positions are often the way to get over the top in GPPs.
Sample DraftKings Lineups
DraftKings Lineup Configurations
Michael Vick. Yes, Michael Vick. Let everyone else be doubters, but I’m going to have plenty of shares of Vick in large tournaments on Thursday night slates. He may be getting older, but he is still one of the most mobile QBs in the league. He also still has a great arm. While he is prone to mistakes, it was nice to see him playing within himself after Roethlisberger went down. He relied on Bell, which is exactly what he should have done. Unfortunately, Brown was a bit of an afterthought, though that should change this week against a Ravens’ team that is ranked 31st against opposing WRs on DK. Baltimore is giving up 59.6 FPs per game to opposing WRs. That being said, I’m not using Brown in GPPS, but will gladly use him in cash games still.
I don’t usually use more than one Thursday player, but my lack of faith in Pittsburgh’s WR defense is strong. Steve Smith could once again have a big night. It’s not likely that he’ll repeat his monster Week 3 performance, but something akin to his Week 2 line against Oakland (10/150) is doable. That being said, it’s a Thursday game….Thursday games are very unpredictable due to the short weeks. Keep that in mind and limit your Thursday exposure in cash games. The other WR slots are filled with Larry Fitzgerald – who is still incredibly underpriced for his performances – and Percy Harvin, who has been a nice fit in the Buffalo system and is always one step away from a big play. At FLEX, Julio Jones is a must until he cools off…Will he ever cool off?
Karlos Williams should get the start this week, with LeSean McCoy nursing a hamstring injury. This is more of a situational play rather than a matchup-based play. The Giants have been stout against the run, but the Bills’ offense is good enough that I think Williams has a high percentage chance for another TD. The big question mark in this lineup is Arian Foster. Will he play? Well, we don’t know yet. However, if he does suit up, then he’s a must start against an Atlanta team that is giving up 12.5 more fantasy points per game than the next closest defense…INSANE! Foster will tear them apart if he starts. If he doesn’t, then roll out Alfred Blue once again and bump up a different position. At DST, I’m not playing any games. Arizona is the play. If you have room, Seattle is viable. High upside options include Indianapolis at home against the Jaguars and Philly on the road against Washington and the interception machine that is Kurt Cousins (who, oddly enough, is a decent play in large tournaments this week).
Cash games are no place to be cute. Just roll out Aaron Rodgers and be done with the QB decision. At RB, you’ll see Karlos Williams once again. If he starts, then he needs to be in your cash lineups. Next to him is Lance Dunbar, who is a PPR monster and Brandon Weeden’s #1 safety valve. He may not catch 10 passes per week, but he’s still averaging 7. He’s a near must start at his price on full PPR sites like DraftKings.
At WR, I’ve loaded a quartet of target magnets: Amari Cooper, Larry Fitzgerald, Donte Moncrief and Julio Jones. The only one that should cause you any pause is Moncrief, but he has at least 7 targets in every start and gets to face a Jags team that has no means to stop the Indy passing attack, which should get back on track in a big way at home this week. At TE, another target machine in Jordan Reed. As long as Kurt Cousins is the QB, I’m looking Reed’s way. He has 26 targets through three weeks and has caught at least 6 passes per game. Sign me up.
There are quite a few similar names here to that have been covered in the other two lineups, so I won’t drone on any more about them. Tyrod Taylor, however, is not one of those names. While he has played well, I’ve seen a lot of talk about how his level of play is not sustainable. Frankly, I don’t subscribe to that notion. I think that he is a perfect fit for the Bills’ style of play and will, barring an injury, finish as a top 10 QB by the end of the year. Frankly, his price on DraftKings is much too low and he should have no trouble flirting with 4X value or more.
At RB, I’m rolling out Frank Gore once again. The Indy offense has struggled, to say the least, but I think they turned a corner in the second half against the Titans. They get a choice matchup at home against the Jags, so Luck’s passing should be able to open up plenty of running lanes for Gore. I don’t know that I’d touch Gore once (if) he hits the $5,500 price level, but I’ll roll him out in GPPs this week.
If you used the cheat sheet last week, you would have seen a lot of love for Cleveland TE Gary Barnidge. Why? Oakland. That’s why. They cannot stop tight ends. Even an offense as inept as Chicago under Clausen’s helm should be able to find ways to exploit this hole. I’m rolling out Martellus Bennett as a result. He is not a cash play by any means, but in large tournaments he could really pay off. Finally, while I love my Kansas City Chiefs, they are no match for a potent passing attack, as we saw in the past two weeks. A.J. Green should feast once again.
UPDATED Sunday GPP
Arian Foster is playing……..here is an updated lineup with him in it. He gets the best RB matchup of any player on the board today. While I’m not rolling him out in cash games – still too risky – he is too hard to ignore in tournaments. He could easily put up 150+ yards and 2 TDs if he is fully healthy, which I am assuming he is if they are letting him play.
Sample FantasyAces Lineups
FantasyAces Lineup Configurations
I can see a lot of players from the Thursday being really highly owned (Vick, Bell, Steve Smith among them), which gives us an advantage if we take some Sunday studs in our Thursday lineups. My #1 QB this week is Andrew Luck and I’m going to love when people take Michael Vick instead so they can have some Thursday action. I’ll take a little chance with my QB2 and go with Bradford, who I expect to have a nice bounce back this week against a suspect WSH D. I don’t love any of the high-end RB this week so I’m going to save some money and go with Ingram as my top guy against a Dallas team that just got shredded by ATL. For my RB2 I’m going to take a chance that Rex Ryan’s love for Karlos Williams continues and the kid gets another 12+ carries to spell Shady McCoy. The price is a little higher than I’d like but he fit just fine into my salary cap. With my distaste for the RB position this week I’m going to go with 4 WR. I’m going to go safe with James Jones and DeAndre Hopkins and upside with TY Hilton (he’s being way too overlooked) and Amari Cooper (huge breakout game coming this week). I’ll have Bennett in almost all my lineups this week as he faces the worst D at defending the TE, the Oakland Raiders. On defense I went with the best matchup for the money I had left over, which was the Colts against Jacksonville. I think Jax can put up 20+ points but I also think there will be a lot of sacks and turnovers with the Jags needing to throw to stay in this game.
For my cash games I want safe, safe, safe. I can’t take a chance on a clunker that’ll cost me the money. That’s going to limit my upside for sure but you have to remember that we’re not looking to win the cash game, we’re just looking to finish in the top half of the field. I have both Newton and Ryan in my top 7 QB plays this week so I’m thrilled that I was able to get both of them on this team. I love the matchup for Mark Ingram against Dallas and Frank Gore should get a decent workload against a Jags team that just gave up 4 rushing TD’s to the Patriots. I’ll gladly take from Gore what Blount did last week. At WR I want target machines and Fitz, Keenan Allen, and Jordan Matthews are exactly that. I’m throwing James Jones in there because Rodgers loves him near the goal line. He won’t get a ton of targets but he will produce. Bennett is my TE because he’s playing the same Raiders team that gave up huge games to Tyler Eifert, Crockett Gilmore, and Gary Barnridge. Bennett is significantly better than those 3 players. At defense I’m going to take the Seahawks at home against a struggling Matt Stafford and the Lions. Let’s not forget you get Special Teams points with your defense and few guys are more explosive than Tyler Lockett.
This week I decided to save a little on QB with a couple of upside plays with good matchups and build from there. Tyrod Taylor is legit and I buy in completely. His price tag isn’t too far out of control and he should be able to put up a nice game against the Giants. Derek Carr has been on fire the last 2 games and gets to play the Bears this week. I’m going to try to double down by hooking him up with Amari Cooper. The kid looks like the real deal and his price is still reasonable. At my other WR spots I’m looking upside in both Moncrief and Benjamin. I don’t think either are safe plays but in a GPP I want to take a chance with my WR. On the flip side of that, I want safety at RB. I got burned hard last week with Melvin Gordon getting 14 carries due to game flow issues but I don’t see that being a problem this week against a terrible Cleveland run D. This should be the week that Gordon really spreads his wings. The same can be said for Mark Ingram going against a Dallas D that Devonta Freeman just tore up. For my 2nd FLEX I’m going with the safest of the big names in Jamaal Charles. I much prefer his matchup to the one for AP. My new rule until it’s proven to not work is “always play the TE facing the Raiders.” They’ve given up huge games to relative fantasy no-names the last 3 weeks and now Martellus Bennett gets to take his shots. I’m playing him everywhere. For my defense I’m going with the team that’s looked best so far this year in the Denver Broncos. I know it’s a little chalky for a GPP but I don’t want to lose the big money because I got cute and played the Raiders.
SUNDAY GPP – WEEKEND UPDATE
As the week has worn on I’ve warmed up to a big Bengals stack. The Chiefs have given up big games to the team’s top 2 WR in each game they’ve played this year. The Red Rifle and Co. have been lighting up the passing game. That’s a very enticing combination of factors. I think people are going to be on some of this stack but I don’t see a lot of players going with all 3 guys. I’m going to Stack the Pack as well for a little bit of safety. Rodgers is playing out of his mind and now he’s starting to throw to James Jones outside of the red zone. The price on Jones hasn’t really adjusted so he’s a great value. My RB are going to be a couple of guys who should get the majority of carries for their team with the top RB out. I love Karlos Williams against the Giants and I think enough people have been burned by Abduallh that his ownership might not be too high. Abdullah’s matchups isn’t ideal but if he can get 17-20 touches he should pay off his relatively low price. Mark Ingram remains my top RB play of the day and at $4.8K he’s a bargain in my FLEX. I’m still high on Martellus Bennett against the Raiders at TE and the Cardinals should have a solid day against the Rams.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
The Matchup Machine is working overtime and will be complete Thursday by noon.
Excel: Week 4 Matchup Stats
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
|Tm||Opp||QB Rk||PPG||MU||RB Rk||PPG||MU||WR Rk||PPG||MU||TE Rk||PPG||MU|
|ATL||SEA||32||9.3||Ð Ð Ð||25||26.4||Ð||31||47.6||Ð Ð||31||10.7||Ð Ð Ð|
|CHI||JAX||7||19||+||8||35.8||+||12||64.7||25||14.8||Ð Ð Ð|
|CLV||TEN||29||11.4||Ð Ð||32||22.5||Ð Ð Ð||27||55.2||Ð||21||19||Ð|
|IND||HST||28||11.7||Ð Ð||31||24||Ð Ð||29||52.1||Ð||30||10.7||Ð Ð Ð|
|NE||CIN||14||16.5||26||26.3||Ð||22||59.4||26||14.4||Ð Ð Ð|
|NYJ||ARZ||19||15.2||20||28.4||Ð||23||59.1||29||12.2||Ð Ð Ð|
|OAK||KC||25||13.4||Ð||7||38||+||11||65||27||13.5||Ð Ð Ð|
|SD||DEN||24||13.8||Ð||10||33.5||32||38.3||Ð Ð Ð||23||18.2||Ð|
|SF||BUF||30||10.5||Ð Ð Ð||13||32.4||13||63.3||28||13.1||Ð Ð Ð|
|WAS||PHI||31||10.5||Ð Ð Ð||15||30.8||28||53.7||Ð||32||5.6||Ð Ð Ð|
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
|Last 3||RZ |
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
|Last 3||RZ |
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.
|Quarterbacks||Opp||DK||DD||FD||Fan Pts||Com%||PaYds||PaTD||Int||Off Yds||Tot TD||Sck||FO||PFF||AVG||FDP||DDP||DKP|
|Robert Griffin III||JAX||$7,300||$12,950||$7,800||20.4||63.2||285.5||1.6||1.0||297.9||1.9||2.5||26.0||26.0||22.4||19.6||18.9||20.0|