Week 3 DFS Value Picks September 24, 2015  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

Check out our NFL DFS Cheat Sheet!

 

One of the best ways to separate yourself from the crowd in DFS is to be able to find players that are priced below where they should be for their potential output. Sometimes this is easy (e.g. when a starting RB is injured after prices are released and their low-priced backup all of a sudden is in line for a lot more work), sometimes it isn’t and requires a lot more research and – as is often the case – luck. However, as they say, preparation begets luck. Below, you’ll see six tables, each covering value plays from a different daily fantasy website. Picks are provided for DraftDay, DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyAces, FantasyDraft and StarsDraft (formerly Victiv).

There are three picks for each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE). You will see one cash pick, one tournament pick, and one high risk/high reward pick that should usually only be used in GPPs with thousands of players (such as the Million Dollar contests on FD and DK). The high risk/high reward pick will be listed as Hail Mary. The prices for each pick are capped at $2,000 above the minimum value for sites with a $50,000 salary cap and $4,000 for sites with a $100,000, though there are a few exceptions (e.g. StarsDraft has much lower minimum values, which throws things off a bit).  So, for instance, you won’t see a DraftKings QB listed for more than $7,000 because the minimum price for a QB on DK is $5,000 and the salary cap is $50,000. You get the idea. You’ll also see the following columns:

Game Type: Is this a CASH (50/50, head-to-head), GPP (tournament), or Hail Mary (high risk/high reward for huge tournaments).

% of Total $: This tells you what percentage of your salary cap is being used up by using this player.

50/50 Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in 50/50 games.

GPP Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs).

Note: I generally aim for more than what is needed to actually cash. For example, in 2014 you needed an average of 111.21 FP and 121.85 FP to cash in 50/50s and GPPs on FanDuel, respectively. This equates to multiples of 1.85 and 2.03, though in the tables below the numbers I have listed assume FanDuel multiples of 2 for 50/50s and 2.5 for GPPs. If you can hit the multiples below, you’ll have a better chance of actually cashing. It’s obviously not a guarantee that you’ll cash – sometimes you can win a GPP on DraftKings with 180 FP, other times it takes 303! – but on average, hitting these numbers will give you a baseline for your expectations. Remember: Always aim for more.

These picks should help act as a starting point in your research for low-priced, high-upside players. Remember, these picks have been made well ahead of time. Anything can happen between now and Sunday. Injuries may arise, someone we think is starting ends up on the bench, etc. James Starks, for instance, becomes almost a must play if Eddie Lacy sits. So, use these as one tool of many in your research to build the best lineup possible….And most of all, have fun!

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Quick Notes for Week 3

For as good as Dion Lewis has been through two weeks, all I see on fantasy message boards is skepticism. “You can’t trust a Patriots RB.” “Bill Belichick doesn’t care about your fantasy season. If you start Lewis, then Blount will run for 200 yards and 3 TDs!” Unbelievable. While there may be doubters, don’t count me as one. No, Belichick doesn’t give a rat’s ass about your fantasy team. But you know what? He didn’t bench Lewis after he fumbled against the Steelers in Week 1 (though they didn’t lose possession) or against the Bills in Week 2. He also didn’t pull Lewis last week when New England had a nearly insurmountable lead. Lewis played on 73 of 86 snaps against the Bills, Blount owners be damned. Frankly, I believe Lewis is the new Vereen in New England. The Jaguars are currently ranked 5th against the run, giving up a paltry 73.5 yards on the ground through the first two weeks – not the most ideal matchup, right? Wrong. Besides the fact that the Pats should build a big lead early, Jacksonville has given up 15 catches to opposing RBs through 2 weeks – just the kind of matchup Lewis can exploit. The fact that his price remains depressed across the DFS landscape only enhances his attractiveness, especially on full PPR sites like DraftKings (8.4% of salary) and Fantasy Draft (8.3%). Of course, I’m sure Belichick will read this and play Blount more heavily to spite me.

In large tournaments, I’m going to be taking a chance on Fred Jackson. The Seattle/Chicago game has all the makings of a massive blowout. The 14.5 point spread seems extremely low for the disparity of talent on the two teams. Seattle is in their home opener, has Kam Chancellor back and has something to prove after two tough losses. Oh, they get to tee off on Jimmy Clausen, too. Poor, poor Jimmy. If this game goes how I imagine it going, Marshawn Lynch won’t touch the ball much, if at all in the 2nd half, leaving the bulk of the work to FJax, who I think has a very reasonable shot at a 10-15 FP day. While I’ll take a flier on him, he’s more likely to hit or exceed value on full PPR sites.

Ryan Fitzpatrick. You prince of New York (Jersey). You king of New England. You get no respect, yet you shall triumph over all, especially the Eagles this week. Philadelphia is without Kiko Alonso and likely without Mychal Kendricks. Without those two stars plugging the middle of the field, the 50-point Wonderlic Guru will have his Fitzmagic working early and often. Even if Eric Decker sits, I love Fitzy at his price point ($5,100, DraftKings? Come on!). If he only gets 200 yards and 2 TDs – a very conservative line – he’ll still hit value. You could do much worse than a Fitz/Brandon Marshall pairing this week in tournaments.

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So, let’s take a quick look at how we did in weeks 1 and 2.

 

Week 1 Recap

Week 1 went quite well. With Chris Ivory leading the way as a value play on all sites, cumulative multiples were very good on DraftDay, DraftKings, Fantasy Draft and StarsDraft. FanDuel and FantasyAces? Not as good, though QBs on FD and TEs on FA were quite strong. When I made the picks, Leonard Hankerson looked to have the WR2 slot in Atlanta. Unfortunately for me (though fortunately for the Falcons), Roddy White was able to suit up and be effective, rendering Hankerson a dud (looks like I was a week early on the call).

Best Week 1 Picks: Chris Ivory (every site), Marcus Mariota (DD, FDraft), James Jones (SD)

Worst Week 1 Picks: Leonard Hankerson (DD, DK, FD, FDraft, SD), Ben Watson (DD, DK, , FD, FDraft)

Week 1 Results

Week 1 Results

Week 2 Recap

Well, let’s be honest: Week 2 was disappointing to say the least. However, there were definitely some bright spots amongst all of the upsets (the Raiders, Jags, Browns, Bucs and Washington all won on the same day for the first time ever). Kaepernick was an absolute fantasy star as SF had to play catch up with Pittsburgh. Overall picks on DraftKings and StarsDraft did well, picks on DraftDay and Fantasy Draft were acceptable, and picks on FantasyAces and FanDuel were simply not good. Cole Beasley really let me down. I thought he’d be an effective piece in a high-scoring game against Philly – none of which came to pass. And Jermaine Kearse? A big fat 0.

Best Week 2 Picks: Colin Kaepernick (DA, DK, FA, SD), Danny Woodhead (DD, DK, FA)

Worst Week 2 Picks: Jermaine Kearse (DD, DK, FD, FDr, SD), Cole Beasley (DK, , FA, FD, FDr, SD)

Week 2 Results

Week 2 Results

Now that that’s all out of the way….onto the picks for Week 3!

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If you have any questions, please leave a message down below or hit me up on Twitter @ianrgold.

 

DraftDay – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerPositionTeamOpponentGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Ryan FitzpatrickQBNYJPHICASH$13,70013.7%20.627.4
Josh McCownQBCLEOAKGPP$10,00010.0%15.020.0
Brandon WeedenQBDALATLHail Mary$10,45010.5%15.720.9
Bilal PowellRBNYJPHICASH$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Lance DunbarRBDALATLGPP$6,5506.6%9.813.1
Fred JacksonRBSEACHIHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Rishard MatthewsWRMIABUFCASH$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Donte MoncriefWRINDTENGPP$9,1009.1%13.718.2
Ted Ginn Jr.WRCARNOHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Jared CookTESTLPITCASH$7,3507.4%11.014.7
Charles ClayTEBUFMIAGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Gary BarnidgeTECLEOAKHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerPositionTeamOpponentGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Carson PalmerQBAZSFCASH$6,60013.2%19.826.4
Ryan FitzpatrickQBNYJPHIGPP$5,10010.2%15.320.4
Nick FolesQBSTLPITHail Mary$5,20010.4%15.620.8
Dion LewisRBNEJAXCASH$4,2008.4%12.616.8
Danny WoodheadRBSDMINGPP$4,4008.8%13.217.6
Fred JacksonRBSEACHIHail Mary$3,0006.0%9.012.0
Stevie JohnsonWRSDMINCASH$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Rishard MatthewsWRMIABUFGPP$3,8007.6%11.415.2
Percy HarvinWRBUFMIAHail Mary$4,4008.8%13.217.6
Jared CookTESTLPITCASH$2,8005.6%8.411.2
Kyle RudolphTEMINSDGPP$3,3006.6%9.913.2
Gary BarnidgeTECLEOAKHail Mary$2,5005.0%7.510.0

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerPositionTeamOpponentGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Alex SmithQBKCGBCASH$6,50010.8%13.016.3
Nick FolesQBSTLPITGPP$6,50010.8%13.016.3
Jameis WinstonQBTBHOUHail Mary$6,50010.8%13.016.3
Jonathan StewartRBCARNOCASH$6,50010.8%13.016.3
Danny WoodheadRBSDMINGPP$6,40010.7%12.816.0
Fred JacksonRBSEACHIHail Mary$6,00010.0%12.015.0
Steve JohnsonWRSDMINCASH$5,9009.8%11.814.8
Rishard MatthewsWRMIABUFGPP$5,7009.5%11.414.3
Jeremy MaclinWRKCGBHail Mary$6,50010.8%13.016.3
Kyle RudolphTEMINSDCASH$5,3008.8%10.613.3
Jared CookTESTLPITGPP$5,4009.0%10.813.5
Jimmy GrahamTESEACHIHail Mary$6,30010.5%12.615.8

 

FantasyAces – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerPositionTeamOpponentGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Carson PalmerQBAZSFCASH$6,50013.0%19.526.0
Alex SmithQBKCGBGPP$5,90011.8%17.723.6
Nick FolesQBSTLPITHail Mary$5,90011.8%17.723.6
Jonathan StewartRBCARNOCASH$4,2008.4%12.616.8
CJ AndersonRBDENDETGPP$4,6509.3%14.018.6
Fred JacksonRBSEACHIHail Mary$3,8007.6%11.415.2
Rishard MatthewsWRMIABUFCASH$4,1008.2%12.316.4
Ted Ginn JrWRCARNOGPP$4,0008.0%12.016.0
Aaron DobsonWRNEJAXHail Mary$3,7507.5%11.315.0
Jared CookTESTLPITCASH$4,2508.5%12.817.0
Kyle RudolphTEMINSDGPP$4,4008.8%13.217.6
Coby FleenerTEINDTENHail Mary$3,9007.8%11.715.6

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerPositionTeamOPPGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Carson PalmerQBAZSFCASH$13,00013.0%19.526.0
Andy DaltonQBCINBALGPP$11,20011.2%16.822.4
Nick FolesQBSTLPITHail Mary$10,40010.4%15.620.8
Dion LewisRBNEJAXCASH$8,3008.3%12.516.6
Danny WoodheadRBSDMINGPP$8,5008.5%12.817.0
Fred JacksonRBSEACHIHail Mary$6,3006.3%9.512.6
Doug BaldwinWRSEACHICASH$8,5008.5%12.817.0
Rishard MatthewsWRMIABUFGPP$7,9007.9%11.915.8
Tavon AustinWRSTLPITHail Mary$7,2007.2%10.814.4
Kyle RudolphTEMINSDCASH$7,1007.1%10.714.2
Jared CookTESTLPITGPP$6,6006.6%9.913.2
Gary BarnidgeTECLEOAKHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0

 

StarsDraft (Victiv) – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerPositionTeamOpponentGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Philip RiversQBSDMINCASH$5,50011.0%13.816.5
Alex SmithQBKCGBGPP$5,10010.2%12.815.3
Nick FolesQBSTLPITHail Mary$4,8009.6%12.014.4
Dion LewisRBNEJAXCASH$3,6007.2%9.010.8
Danny WoodheadRBSDMINGPP$3,5007.0%8.810.5
David JohnsonRBAZSFHail Mary$3,5007.0%8.810.5
Stevie JohnsonWRSDMINCASH$3,4006.8%8.510.2
Donte MoncriefWRINDTENGPP$4,0008.0%10.012.0
Rishard MatthewsWRMIABUFHail Mary$3,0006.0%7.59.0
Kyle RudolphTEMINSDCASH$2,9005.8%7.38.7
Jared CookTESTLPITGPP$2,9005.8%7.38.7
Charles ClayTEBUFMIAHail Mary$2,5005.0%6.37.5

 

2 Responses

  1. Great question. I think Fleener is a very solid upside play this week with Allen out. When I put this together, Allen was still questionable, so unfortunately Fleener is underrepresented here. Out of the three you mentioned, he has the highest chance of scoring.

    As for Myers and Barnidge. Frankly, both are shots in the dark. Tampa and Cleveland are both facing strong pass rushers, so McCown and Winston will both need to dump the ball off quickly. Myers certainly has more experience, but Evans should be back to full strength, too…Will Winston look his way? I’m leaning towards Barnidge slightly as Oakland’s TE D has been absolutely horrific.

    Frankly, I think the best value this week at TE on DK is Cook, who at $2,800 is only $300 more than those two. Foles has looked his way 13 times in the first two weeks, connecting 5 times in each game. I think a 5/50-60 line is very reasonable expectation as STL will have to pass often to keep up with the Steeler juggernaut. Even without a TD, that’s roughly 4X value.

  2. James says:

    Been torn between Barnidge (great matchup but less than a catch per game over career) and Brandon Meyers at essentially the same price point. Draft Kings. Also with Allen out, is Fleener viable?

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