Week 2 DraftKings Value Picks
September 12, 2014 | Ian Goldsmith
Tom Brady: $7000 – New England at Minnesota
Watch out, Minnesota. Tom Brady shaved his beard. He is angry and Minnesota is the unfortunate foe to stand in his way. The Patriots struggled to protect him in Week 1, leading to a lot of uncharacteristic mistakes and a completion percentage of only 51.8. Let’s look at some positives, however. Brady was able to distribute the ball to eight receivers and was 27 for 38 on throws of less than 15 yards (71.1%). He was also now has one game in the book with his reliable tight end Rob Gronkowski. The Pats are 3 point favorites on the road in the game with the 4th highest O/U of the week. They struggled to stop Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller; I shudder to think what All Day can do to their front seven with Cordarrelle Patterson creating space. Brady will need to pass early and often to keep up with the Vikings. At only $7000, he is a steal this week. Cash and tournament play.
Matt Cassel: $5200 – Minnesota v. New England
Brady’s old teammate Cassel is all of a sudden surrounded by a lot of skill players. Peterson and Patterson – whom I shall now refer to as the Peter-Patter Pair – were already a huge part of the offense, but it looks like Cassel has a new found rapport with Greg Jennings, who was targeted a team-high seven times in Week 1. This has all the signs of a shootout. Minnesota will not be facing mediocre 2nd and 3rd string quarterbacks as they did in last week’s huge win. Cassel will have to be more involved in the passing game. Look for Kyle Rudolph to play a bigger role this week as Cassel’s safety outlet. At $5200, he has a very good chance to hit or exceed value. Tournament play.
Lamar Miller: $4600 – Miami at Buffalo
We knew going into Week 1 that Miller and Moreno would be splitting carries. Did anyone expect Moreno to go off for such a big game? I sure didn’t. Somewhat hidden in the midst of Knowshon’s big game was a very serviceable game by Miller. I’m especially encouraged by his use in the passing game. He received 5 targets, catching 4 for 19 yards and a TD. Moreno wasn’t targeted once in the passing game. This bodes well Miller on a site like DraftKings with 1 PPR. His price actually dropped from last week, which is very strange. Take advantage and use him. Cash play.
Fred Jackson: $4000 – Buffalo v. Miami
Miami is bleeding at the linebacker position. Buffalo would be smart to get both Spiller and FJax involved heavily. Jackson received eight fewer carries than Spiller last week, but was much more efficient with his touches. He was just as utilized in the passing game as well and looked healthy and lively, especially for an NFL RB at age 33. His low price and heavy use makes him a safe play that could turn into something big if he’s able to find the end zone. Cash play, usable in tournaments.
Reggie Wayne and TY Hilton: $5300/$5000 – Indianapolis v. Philadelphia
In Week 1, Wayne looked as if he had never been injured. He and Luck were on the same page and he ended up with team highs in targets and receptions – 13 and 9, respectively. His price increased, but only by $200. This week, he gets to face the porous Eagles secondary on Monday night. His teammate, TY Hilton, is more volatile. You never really know when he is going to go off, but you don’t want to miss it when he does. Even though Hilton caught less than 50% of the passes thrown his way, he was second on the team with 11 targets in week one. Luck will look his way often again in what should be a shootout. Of the two, Hilton is the one with speed and big play potential. If you’re looking for someone to mimic what Allen Hurns did last week to Philly, Hilton is your best bet. Wayne: cash. Hilton: tournament.
Riley Cooper: $4000 – Philadelphia at Indianapolis
On the other side of the field from Wayne and Hilton is the inconsistent Riley Cooper. After a quiet week of 4 catches for 29 yards last week, he’ll fall off of people’s radars. Don’t let him fall off of yours. Foles looked his way seven times on Sunday, which was good for the second most on the Eagles. Indianapolis was able to limit the damage from Demaryius Thomas last week and will likely be trying to focus on doing the same to Maclin. Additionally, McCoy will also demand a lot of attention, which should leave Cooper with more one-on-one coverage down field. He only had five or more catches twice all last season, so if you use him remember that his value comes in getting behind the defense for long scores. This week sets up nicely for one of his big games. Tournament play only!
Kyle Rudolph: $3900 – Minnesota v. New England
Rudolph was quiet last week, but in all honest he wasn’t needed. Minnesota’s defense played Henry Moore from the get go, sculpting St. Louis’ offense into NFL wannabes. This week they will need the 6’6” Notre Dame product to shine if they want to beat New England. We all know that Norv Turner loves tight ends as intricate parts of his offensive schemes. Rudolph should be used often as a safety blanket for Matt Cassel. His price dropped and is ripe for the picking. Cash play.
Larry Donnell: $3000 – New York Giants v. Arizona
Donnell came out of nowhere to go for a huge 5/56/1TD line. This week he gets to face Arizona, last year’s worst fantasy team to tight ends, who did nothing in week one to dispel that moniker. After an offseason of decimation to their linebacking corps, the Cardinals’ defense got another big blow when John Abraham got a concussion (Abraham is considering retirement, which is probably the smart move.) Donnell’s price stayed flat at the minimum $3000. Take advantage and throw him into your lineup. The bargain basement price will let you spend on other positions. Tournament play (although at his price he offers minimal downside…I wouldn’t be opposed to using him in cash games).
Tampa Bay: $3200
St. Louis’ QB situation is in shambles. They are already on their third string QB and it is only week 2! Yikes. Their offensive line was not able to protect the QBs against Minnesota and gave up 5 sacks. Tampa Bay has a great chance to equal or exceed that number this week at home. The O/U is a paltry 37 and the Bucs are favored by 6. Start them, start them, start them. Cash play.
After only allowing the Colts to score seven points in the first half, the Broncos defense let up and almost let Andrew Luck and company come back. They were able to force two Luck interceptions and sack him three times. Kansas City’s offensive line is not even close to the caliber of Indianapolis. Denver’s front seven should have a field day and get force Alex Smith into bad throw after bad throw. While Dwayne Bowe is back this week from suspension, he will not add enough explosiveness to make a difference against a team full of Pro Bowlers. Tournament play, but usable in cash games as well.
Week 1 Recap
What good are predictions without accountability? Each week I’ll briefly recap my picks and put them into one of four categories: Value studs, good plays, mediocre plays and lineup killers.
Value Stud (3+ FP/$1000)
Philly D: 4.38 PPT Late defensive score moved them from irrelevant to stud territory.
Antonio Gates: 4.14 Was Rivers’ safety valve, as usual. Caveat: I only mentioned him in passing in my Week 1 article.
Chad Henne: 3.55 Attacked early and was successful enough against weak Philly secondary.
Marqise Lee: 3.49 Hurns had the big first half, but Lee held his own and delivered down the stretch.
Julian Edelman: 3.32 Brady’s clear safety valve. He delivered week 1.
Good Play (2.5-2.99)
Mediocre Play (2-2.49)
Travis Kelce: 2.47 A decent first game for the rookie. He wasn’t flashy, but with Andy Reid’s pathetic play calling in Week 1 how could he have been? Ugh.
Colin Kaepernick: 2.14 Victim of his defense’s dominance. Wasn’t needed in the second half.
Lineup Killer (<2)
Ladarius Green: 1.38 Gates was healthy and played well. Looks like Green may have longer to wait to overtake the old man.
Frank Gore: 1.21 Another victim of the SF defense. Carlos Hyde looked good and could take carries away going forward.
Danny Woodhead: 0.57 Did his role disappear when Whisenhunt left? It sure looked like it Monday. I totally misread this one.
Jets: 0.77 Held their own, but couldn’t force the rookie Carr into big mistakes. Blech.