Week 2 DFS Value Picks September 16, 2015  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

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One of the best ways to separate yourself from the crowd in DFS is to be able to find players that are priced below where they should be for their potential output. Sometimes this is easy (e.g. when a starting RB is injured after prices are released and their low-priced backup all of a sudden is in line for a lot more work), sometimes it isn’t and requires a lot more research and – as is often the case – luck. However, as they say, preparation begets luck. Below, you’ll see six tables, each covering value plays from a different daily fantasy website. Picks are provided for DraftDay, DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyAces, FantasyDraft and StarsDraft (formerly Victiv).

There are three picks for each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE). You will see one cash pick, one tournament pick, and one high risk/high reward pick that should only be used in GPPs with thousands of players (such as the Million Dollar contests on FD and DK). The high risk/high reward pick will be listed as Hail Mary. The prices for each pick are capped at $2,000 above the minimum value for sites with a $50,000 salary cap and $4,000 for sites with a $100,000, though there are a few exceptions (e.g. StarsDraft has much lower minimum values, which throws things off a bit).  So, for instance, you won’t see a DraftKings QB listed for more than $7,000 because the minimum price for a QB on DK is $5,000 and the salary cap is $50,000. You get the idea. You’ll also see the following columns:

Game Type: Is this a CASH (50/50, head-to-head), GPP (tournament), or Hail Mary (high risk/high reward for huge tournaments).

% of Total $: This tells you what percentage of your salary cap is being used up by using this player.

50/50 Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in 50/50 games.

GPP Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs).

Note: I generally aim for more than what is needed to actually cash. For example, in 2014 you needed an average of 111.21 FP and 121.85 FP to cash in 50/50s and GPPs on FanDuel, respectively. This equates to multiples of 1.85 and 2.03, though in the tables below the numbers I have listed assume FanDuel multiples of 2 for 50/50s and 2.5 for GPPs. If you can hit the multiples below, you’ll have a better chance of actually cashing. It’s obviously not a guarantee that you’ll cash – sometimes you can win a GPP on DraftKings with 180 FP, other times it takes 303! – but on average, hitting these numbers will give you a baseline for your expectations. Remember: Always aim for more.

These picks should help act as a starting point in your research for low-priced, high-upside players. Remember, these picks have been made well ahead of time – especially for the first week. Anything can happen between now and Sunday. Injuries may arise, someone we think is starting ends up on the bench, etc. Leonard Hankerson, for instance, becomes a much riskier play if Roddy White is close to 100% and takes the field. So, use these as one tool of many in your research to build the best lineup possible….And most of all, have fun!

 

Quick Notes for Week 2

 

TE still offers some of the best value around in daily, especially on full PPR sites like DraftKings, DraftDay and Fantasy Draft. We’re not likely to see a repeat of Week 1, but there is no reason why the position will drop off the cliff either. Heath Miller and Jason Witten are two players whomI think can easily continue their success this week. Both players’ teams are without key components: the Cowboys are without Dez Bryant and the Steelers are still without LeVeon Bell and Martavis Bryant. This should mean that the two of them should continue to see an elevated number of targets this week.

Don’t get caught up in the Marcel Reece hype. I’ve always loved him as a player, but he just doesn’t get enough touches. In last week’s huge game he had two TDs on only three garbage time touches. He’s still incredibly cheap across the industry, but don’t use him in anything but large GPP tournaments. Chris Ivory’s price somehow stayed depressed even with his huge week. He has another solid matchup this week and I, once again, will be rostering him almost everywhere.

Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley are likely going to see a big boost in ownership with Bryant out. I couldn’t include Williams as much as I otherwise would have because his price actually climbed quite considerably on a number of sites, probably in anticipation of his (likely) high ownership. I’m very high on Beasley this week; while Williams relies on getting open for the big play, Beasley can act as a reliable possession receiver for Romo and should get a reasonably high number of targets in what should be a shootout. He’s almost a must for me on DraftKings at only $3,300.

If you have any questions, please leave a message down below or hit me up on Twitter @ianrgold.

 

DraftDay – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP PtsOpponent
Joe FlaccoBALQBCASH$13,85013.9%20.827.7OAK
Colin KaepernickSFQBGPP$14,00014.0%21.028.0PIT
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJQBHail Mary$13,80013.8%20.727.6IND
Darren SprolesPHIRBCASH$6,4506.5%9.712.9DAL
Danny WoodheadSDRBGPP$8,7008.7%13.117.4CIN
Lance DunbarDALRBHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0PHI
Jermaine KearseSEAWRCASH$6,2006.2%9.312.4GB
James JonesGBWRGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0SEA
Brandon ColemanNOWRHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0TB
Heath MillerPITTECASH$7,2507.3%10.914.5SF
Kyle RudolphMINTEGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0DET
Darren FellsAZTEHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0CHI

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP PtsOpponent
Colin KaepernickSFQBCASH$6,60013.2%19.826.4PIT
Carson PalmerAZQBGPP$6,70013.4%20.126.8CHI
Jameis WinstonTBQBHail Mary$5,60011.2%16.822.4NO
Chris IvoryNYJRBCASH$4,7009.4%14.118.8IND
Danny WoodheadSDRBGPP$4,0008.0%12.016.0CIN
Chris JohnsonAZRBHail Mary$3,8007.6%11.415.2CHI
Jermaine KearseSEAWRCASH$3,6007.2%10.814.4GB
Terrance WilliamsDALWRGPP$4,2008.4%12.616.8PHI
Cole BeasleyDALWRHail Mary$3,3006.6%9.913.2PHI
Heath MillerPITTECASH$3,5007.0%10.514.0SF
Jason WittenDALTEGPP$4,3008.6%12.917.2PHI
Vernon DavisSFTEHail Mary$3,0006.0%9.012.0PIT

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP PtsOpponent
Nick FolesSTLQBCASH$6,50010.8%13.016.3WAS
Tyrod TaylorBUFQBGPP$6,30010.5%12.615.8NE
Jameis WinstonTBQBHail Mary$6,60011.0%13.216.5NO
Darren SprolesPHIRBCASH$5,6009.3%11.214.0DAL
Lance DunbarDALRBGPP$4,8008.0%9.612.0PHI
Chris JohnsonAZRBHail Mary$5,7009.5%11.414.3CHI
Jermaine KearseSEAWRCASH$5,4009.0%10.813.5GB
Cole BeasleyDALWRGPP$5,7009.5%11.414.3PHI
Brandon ColemanNOWRHail Mary$5,0008.3%10.012.5TB
Heath MillerPITTECASH$5,4009.0%10.813.5SF
Austin Seferian-JenkinsTBTEGPP$4,5007.5%9.011.3NO
Eric EbronDETTEHail Mary$4,8008.0%9.612.0MIN

 

FantasyAces – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP PtsOpponent
Colin KaepernickSFQBCASH$5,85011.7%17.623.4PIT
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJQBGPP$5,55011.1%16.722.2IND
Jameis WinstonTBQBHail Mary$5,25010.5%15.821.0NO
Chris IvoryNYJRBCASH$4,4508.9%13.417.8IND
Danny WoodheadSDRBGPP$4,3008.6%12.917.2CIN
Lance DunbarDALRBHail Mary$3,9007.8%11.715.6PHI
Anquan BoldinSFWRCASH$4,3008.6%12.917.2PIT
Cole BeasleyDALWRGPP$4,3008.6%12.917.2PHI
Phillip DorsettINDWRHail Mary$3,5007.0%10.514.0NYJ
Heath MillerPITTECASH$4,3508.7%13.117.4SF
Austin Seferian-JenkinsTBTEGPP$4,2508.5%12.817.0NO
Vernon DavisSFTEHail Mary$4,1008.2%12.316.4PIT

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP PtsOPP
Nick FolesSTLQBCASH$11,30011.3%17.022.6WAS
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJQBGPP$11,20011.2%16.822.4IND
Jameis WinstonTBQBHail Mary$11,20011.2%16.822.4NO
Chris IvoryNYJRBCASH$9,1009.1%13.718.2IND
Darren SprolesPHIRBGPP$6,8006.8%10.213.6DAL
Danny WoodheadSDRBHail Mary$8,3008.3%12.516.6CIN
Jermaine KearseSEAWRCASH$7,2007.2%10.814.4GB
Cole BeasleyDALWRGPP$7,3007.3%11.014.6PHI
Brandon ColemanNOWRHail Mary$6,8006.8%10.213.6TB
Heath MillerPITTECASH$7,9007.9%11.915.8SF
Ladarius GreenSDTEGPP$6,9006.9%10.413.8CIN
Vernon DavisSFTEHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0PIT

 

StarsDraft (Victiv) – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP PtsOpponent
Colin KaepernickSFQBCASH$6,10012.2%15.318.3PIT
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJQBGPP$5,40010.8%13.516.2IND
Andy DaltonCINQBHail Mary$6,10012.2%15.318.3SD
Darren SprolesPHIRBCASH$4,4008.8%11.013.2DAL
Shane VereenNYGRBGPP$4,0008.0%10.012.0ATL
Lance DunbarDALRBHail Mary$4,3008.6%10.812.9PHI
Anquan BoldinSFWRCASH$4,3008.6%10.812.9PIT
Jermaine KearseSEAWRGPP$2,9005.8%7.38.7GB
Cole BeasleyDALWRHail Mary$4,4008.8%11.013.2PHI
Tyler EifertCINTECASH$3,9007.8%9.811.7SD
Ladarius GreenSDTEGPP$3,2006.4%8.09.6CIN
Vernon DavisSFTEHail Mary$3,1006.2%7.89.3PIT

 

Week 2 DraftKings Freeroll: $100,000 in Prizes!

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