Week 2 DFS Cheat Sheet – UPDATED
September 19, 2015 | Chet
Welcome to Week 2 of The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Chet Gresham, Ian Goldsmith and Doug Shain, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, and Fantasy Aces, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those three. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our Week 1 Cheat Sheet to see what you get.
Draftkings 100% Deposit Bonus
Sample FanDuel Lineups
This lineup uses nobody from the Thursday night game and that’s usually how I like it. It gives people a chance to put in Thursday players so they can have the opportunity to watch them and of course that’s the opposite of what you want to do. Other than Coleman this is the list of “my guys” for this week. I have a lot of guys I like this week, but Brees, Lynch, Abdullah, Jones, Matthews, Eifert and the Panthers are the core of who I’m looking to get into my lineups. Of course you need to be careful with injuries because there’s no going back after the Thursday games start. Julio didn’t practice due to soreness, i.e. dominating the Eagles. I don’t see any of these guys not playing unless they suffer an injury in practice, which unfortunately happens. So Thursday games are always risky to a degree.
This lineup is very similar to the Thursday cash lineup, but I’m spreading out my two cheaper wide receivers so I don’t need to rely on Coleman. I think Fitz and Decker make for safer plays. This lineup of course could be used in a Thursday cash game as well.
In GPPs I like to shore up top points from the less reliable positions like wide receiver and tight end. Gronkowski is always the No. 1 tight end and always has the highest upside. I will always try to get him in a tournament lineup. Antonio Brown and Julio Jones are your sure-fired receivers and after that I’m ooking for value with upside at the quarterback and running back positions. Everything is set up so great for Spiller in the dome against the Bucs that I’m willing to risk a dud from him. Of course I want to make sure he practices and the coach-speak is in his favor, but for now he’s a GPP start for me. Taylor could rush for 100 yards against the Patriots and I wouldn’t be too surprised. Running quarterbacks are a great GPP play due to the upside in rushing points. Kaepernick is also a GPP play I like.
UPDATE: Spiller will be on a snap count so I’m bypassing him even in GPPs. So I switched things up quite a bit with a 49ers stack. It’s a tough game going on the road for the 49ers, but the matchup is too good not to have a piece of and in GPP I’ll stack three with Kap, Boldin and VD. Saving money with them helped me get Lynch, Julio, Cooks and my favorite upside value play in Abdullah.
UPDATE: like to play Sunday only gmaes so I don’t have to wait for Monday night. It’s called no patience. I like the balance of this lineup (which would also work for Sun/Mon Cash games). No Julio Jones is my only dissapointment with this one, but I like Cooks a lot. He’s a little riskier, but cheaper and allows me to get Ingram, who I think is safer than Abdullah, who I’ll need for Jones to fit.
UPDATE: For my 1pm only lineup I’m going with Palmer and Fitz, who I like for cash games. Hill and Sankey are two RBs I haven’t put in a lineup yet, but think both are safe enough for GPPs. Sankey is the scarier of the two, but I just don’t see the Browns getting a lead on Tennessee and forcing them to pass, while Cleveland’s D is usually better against the pass. Olsen is another guy I’m not very worried about. Unless there’s so undisclosed injury, he’s going to get his work today.
Sample DraftKings Lineups
UPDATED Sunday GPP
DraftKings Lineup Configurations
So, I made this lineup before Carlos Hyde went bonkers behind that magnificent SF O-Line (Yes, I’m amazed that they performed so well, too!). Hyde was electric and, at only $5,100, will likely be on a ton of my (and everybody’s) lineups this week. More on him later. This lineup starts with his teammates Colin Kaepernick and Anquan Boldin. I’m a Pittsburgh fan (and KC fan). There, it’s in the open. Anyways, the Steelers’ defense is terrible. No, Kaep is not Tom Brady, but he is capable, can run and has the running game that Brady doesn’t. Pittsburgh will be putting up points – we all know this – and I see both teams scoring in the 20s. Boldin should be heavily involved as a possession guy. I actually love him as a cash play this week, but if he catches a TD that could push him into the GPP range.
Miller is a bit of a wild card. Miami refused to run the ball early, which was dumbfounding. Lo and behold, when they finally gave Miller the ball regularly, he succeeded. Honestly, if I made this lineup again I ‘d probably put in Hyde, but I still love the matchup against Jacksonville and Miller offers a nice contrarian option after his poor outing this week. I had Chris Ivory in 90% of my lineups last week and will have him in 90% of my lineups this week. He is a true workhorse for the Jets. Indy’s run defense is mediocre and Ivory should have no trouble coming close to a repeat of his performance in Week 1. I’d love to see him more involved in the passing game. He has the goods, let’s hope he gets his chances. Bonus: DK made the lineups fairly early so he’s still only $4,700. You don’t need an explanation for Antonio Brown.
Travis Kelce is the only player I’m even considering touching in Thursday’s games (if you want to start a kicker on FanDuel, go ahead). We saw how much Smith likes to use him and I think the KC wideouts will struggle against Denver’s secondary. Kelce is a matchup nightmare. Let’s hope he continues the fire in Week 2. Again, I must point out that I generally HATE to start Thursday players. A word of warning. Brandon Coleman is a cheap fill-in with big upside for New Orleans as they play their home opener. This could be a shootout; with an O/U of 47.5, it’s currently the 4th highest O/U for Week 2. Jordan Matthews…well, he may not be Antonio Brown, but we saw on Monday how much Philly relies upon the former Vanderbilt standout. Love him again against Dallas this week.
Hyde. I redid this lineup with him in mind. Not only was the offensive line on point, but Hyde was playing possessed. He flashed some moves that we did not see from him last season. I’ll be all over this pick. The Hyde/Ivory combo will be on almost every one of my 50/50 lineups this week. I have three Cowboys in here. The matchup is right and so are the prices. Normally, I’d not touch Terrance Williams in a 50/50, but – a big but – his price is very low and he is the #1. He was also second on the team in targets on Sunday night with 8. Jason Witten looked fantastic as well. Without Bryant for much of the game, Romo looked his way early and often; we all know what happened at the end of the game when he got wide open….Love him this week. In a bit of a surprise, I am actually going with another TE in the Flex spot. Heath Miller was a crutch for Big Ben on Thursday. Plus, of all the good SF did against Minnesota last night, they failed to cover the TE well. Rudolph led the team in targets, catching 5 for 53. If Heath gets those numbers, which I think is a fairly safe bet, then he already hits value.
Drew Brees to Brandin Cooks. We didn’t see nearly enough of it this past weekend, but I think that changes this week. Brees is always better at home, and is always capable of going off in the Dome. TB just let a rookie (I’m a Ducks fan and love Mariota, but 4 TDS??? Really?!) slay them through the air. I say Brees goes for 300+ and 3TDs, with higher upside. Again, notice Antonio Brown. He needs no explanation. Jermaine Kearse got 10 targets this week, leading all Seattle receivers. He’s a steal at his current price in a game that should be relatively high scoring. Yes, high scoring. The Seattle/Green Bay game currently has an O/U of 48.5. Think the Hawks will be paying Kam soon?
UPDATED Sunday GPP
There are quite a few changes in this lineup from the one I posted previously. First of all, you’ll notice the absence of Chris Ivory. While he will likely play, he’s still questionable and not playing until Monday night. Unfortunately, this late start really lowers his attractiveness. I still love the matchup, however. So, if you do decide to use him – his price is still very low and the matchup is great – then put him in your FLEX spot so you can switch to Donte Moncrief, Bilal Powell, Phillip Dorsett or one of the Indy TEs. Obviously, none of those options are as exciting or offer the same upside as Ivory (though Moncrief is close), so that’s why I gave you this example without him.
I am very high on Kaepernick this week. I’ve tried to reason myself out of him, but I just see the Steelers’ defense showing up to stop him and the San Francisco offense. While it’s unusual to stack a QB and RB, I’ve done that here because I think both he and Hyde offer tremendous upside this week. Boldin, Torrey Smith and Vernon Davis are all excellent high upside plays this week as well, so look their way if you want to stack this matchup.
I’ve paired Hyde with Marshawn Lynch, who should absolutely dominate a Green Bay defense that couldn’t stop Matt Forte last week. In Week 1 of 2014, Lynch piled up 124 total yards and 2 TDs against the Packers. I see no reason that he cannot put up similar numbers this Sunday. Without hitting the endzone last week, he still piled up 17.4 FP against a stout St. Louis run defense.
At WR, I’m pairing two high-end players with two “scrubs”. Antonio Brown and Julio Jones combine for $17,700 – 35.4% of the total salary cap. While that’s a lot, these two could legitimately score the 69.4 FP again that they did last week. Will they? Obviously nobody knows that, but their combined floor is so high in full PPR leagues that I have no problem using both. On the cheap end, I’m rolling with Brandon Coleman and Cole Beasley, who cost a combined $6,600, quite the difference in price! However, both have fantastic matchups and their upside at their price is huge. Beasley will get a bit uptick in looks with Dez Bryant out and New Orleans should have a scoring fest against Tampa. However, I caution using either in cash games or redraft leagues as their floors are low. If you do decide to use one in a cash game, I lean toward using Beasley as Romo should look to him in the slot fairly often.
I love Heath Miller this week. Why his price is still this low, I have no idea. Without Le’Veon and Bryant in the lineup, Big Ben will look to Brown and Miller for their reliability. He only needs 14 points to pay off his GPP value, which he has a great chance of doing. He put down a solid 16.4 last week without finding paydirt. While Minnesota’s offense was mostly inept against the Niners last Monday, TE Kyle Rudolph was able to post a solid 5/53 line, which gives me even more hope for Miller.
I’m sticking with Miami at DST. However, if you want to look at different way, the Rams at $3,100 and the Saints at $2,800 are well worth a look.
If you have any questions tomorrow, hit me up at @ianrgold on Twitter and I’ll do my best to get back to you.
Sample FantasyAces Lineups
UPDATED Sunday GPP
FantasyAces Lineup Configurations
As you know I’m not a fan of targeting players who I expect to have a high ownership. I’m going to use the Thursday game to get those studs that I think will have a higher ownership on Sunday-Monday slates. With guys like Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, and Jamaal Charles playing in the Thursday game you can get some Sunday studs at a greatly reduced ownership rate. For that reason Drew Brees and Marcus Mariota at QB. Both have excellent matchups and should come in at a lower than expected ownership rate with a lot of people jumping on Manning/Smith for Thursday. The same idea is behind my selections of Matt Forte and Christopher Ivory. Lot of people are going to be on Charles/Hillman for this Thursday slate, so I’ll take advantage of that. At WR I’m once again grabbing a couple of guys who I think will be highly owned on a Sunday slate in Landry/Cooks. I’m doubling down on my Saints love with Marques Colston as well. I think they crush Tampa. I expect a good ownership for Travis Kelce, which means a lower ownership for Gronk. Sign me up! Sensing a theme here? The one play I’m going to make for Thursday is the Denver defense. They look like world beaters and at a reduced price it’s hard to pass them up.
What I want most out of this lineup is some safety at QB and WR. I think I got that with Brees/Roethlisberger. We saw what Mariota did to Tampa this week and I think Brees can have a similarly good game. Big Ben carved up the Patriots last Thursday night and this week he’s got the 49ers on a short week in an early game on the East Coast. For those same reasons I really like both Cooks and Brown at WR. I don’t love to stack in cash games but these matchups were too good to pass up (and the price on Cooks is very manageable). At RB I wanted to make sure to get players who have good matchups, won’t cost a ton, and who aren’t going to fight for carries. I accomplished that with Ivory and Yeldon, but not as much with Coleman. I loved the way he ran on Monday night, though, and I think he’s in line for a lot of carries against a poor NYG run defense. For my other FLEX I went with Keenan Allen, who seems to be back to where he was two years ago. This game against Cincy should be a close one and I expect Rivers to throw a lot. Greg Olsen’s price is well below his potential and his upside is too high to not roster. Using him gives me a high upside TE while still having room for studs elsewhere. I went with the top defense here as the Rams have a plum matchup against Kirk Cousins and the Redskins. They get to the QB and that helps to keep their floor really high (a must when rostering a defense in cash games).
For my GPP lineup I wanted to make sure to go a little higher end at RB, so I had to make sure at least one of my QB’s was less expensive. I think I found a good one in Cam Newton. Last week Alex Smith torched Houston. People are going to shy away from Cam after his subpar performance but I think that’s a mistake for them and an opportunity for us. As you can see I’m going to pair him with Greg Olsen for a nice hookup that a lot of people won’t have. When building my GPP lineups I like to go a little more solid than I would for a cash game. I think that Lynch and Forsett are going to bounce back this week after quiet Week 1 performances. I love targeting studs coming off bad weeks in a GPP. People tend to shy away from then which keeps their ownership low. At FLEX I decided to go with Forte coming off a big game and Sankey in a good matchup against a Browns defense that gave up 2 TD to Christopher Ivory last week. Sankey looked much better than Terrence West and I expect him to get the bulk of the carries this week. For my WR I went total upside in John Brown and Brandin Cooks. Both were relative values with a good opportunity for scores. For defense I wanted to target a terrible offense, the Cleveland Browns, so that’s how I ended up with Tennessee. They don’t need to do what they did last week to Tampa but I still expect a good showing with a low ownership.
UPDATED Sunday GPP
I wanted to differentiate this lineup a little bit from my other ones. I think that going with a couple of cheaper QB’s was the way to go here. I’m still on the Nick Foles train and once again I’m coming around to the idea of using Carson Palmer this week. An early game on the road is a little scary, but the Bears look bad. Like with Foles, I just can’t seem to shake the idea of using Sankey this week. I believe he’s in line for a huge game (for him), and while I love what the Saints should do through the air, I also think this is a great opportunity for Ingram to establish himself as a clock eating monster. I added Forsett in at FLEX because he needs a bounce back game and the Raiders provide that for him. My WR trio of Brown, Hopkins, Matthews are all high volume guys that will only need a TD to go from solid start to GPP winning start. Each should see nearly double digit targets. The same can be said for Bennett as Jeffery is hurting and the Bears will need to throw. I considered Forte for that role but I think the Cards are going to really key on him, leaving the middle of the field open for the big guy. At defense I went with my #2 play on the board (behind the Rams) as I feel they’ll put up almost as good of a game and will go much less owned. The Raiders are bad and Baltimore gave Peyton Manning fits. I can only imagine what they do to Derek Carr. I love pairing a stud RB with a defense because if the team dominates as expected the Defense will do well and the RB will run out the clock. That’s a great way to have a sneaky stack that isn’t QB/WR.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
The Matchup Machine is working overtime and will be complete Thursday by noon.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
|Tm||Opp||QB Rk||PPG||MU||RB Rk||PPG||MU||WR Rk||PPG||MU||TE Rk||PPG||MU|
|ATL||SEA||32||9.3||Ð Ð Ð||25||26.4||Ð||31||47.6||Ð Ð||31||10.7||Ð Ð Ð|
|CHI||JAX||7||19||+||8||35.8||+||12||64.7||25||14.8||Ð Ð Ð|
|CLV||TEN||29||11.4||Ð Ð||32||22.5||Ð Ð Ð||27||55.2||Ð||21||19||Ð|
|IND||HST||28||11.7||Ð Ð||31||24||Ð Ð||29||52.1||Ð||30||10.7||Ð Ð Ð|
|NE||CIN||14||16.5||26||26.3||Ð||22||59.4||26||14.4||Ð Ð Ð|
|NYJ||ARZ||19||15.2||20||28.4||Ð||23||59.1||29||12.2||Ð Ð Ð|
|OAK||KC||25||13.4||Ð||7||38||+||11||65||27||13.5||Ð Ð Ð|
|SD||DEN||24||13.8||Ð||10||33.5||32||38.3||Ð Ð Ð||23||18.2||Ð|
|SF||BUF||30||10.5||Ð Ð Ð||13||32.4||13||63.3||28||13.1||Ð Ð Ð|
|WAS||PHI||31||10.5||Ð Ð Ð||15||30.8||28||53.7||Ð||32||5.6||Ð Ð Ð|
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
|Last 3||RZ |
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
|Last 3||RZ |
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.
|Quarterbacks||Opp||DK||DD||FD||Fan Pts||Com%||PaYds||PaTD||Int||Off Yds||Tot TD||Sck||FO||PFF||AVG||FDP||DDP||DKP|
|Robert Griffin III||JAX||$7,300||$12,950||$7,800||20.4||63.2||285.5||1.6||1.0||297.9||1.9||2.5||26.0||26.0||22.4||19.6||18.9||20.0|