Week 17 DFS Value Picks January 3, 2016  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

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One of the best ways to separate yourself from the crowd in DFS is to be able to find players that are priced below where they should be for their potential output. Sometimes this is easy (e.g. when a starting RB is injured after prices are released and their low-priced backup all of a sudden is in line for a lot more work), sometimes it isn’t and requires a lot more research and – as is often the case – luck. However, as they say, preparation begets luck. Below, you’ll see six tables, each covering value plays from a different daily fantasy website. Picks are provided for DraftDay, DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyAces, FantasyDraft and FantasyHub.

There are three picks for each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE). You will see one cash pick, one tournament pick, and one high risk/high reward pick that should usually only be used in GPPs with thousands of players (such as the Million Dollar contests on FD and DK). The high risk/high reward pick will be listed as Hail Mary. The prices for each pick are capped at $2,000 above the minimum value for sites with a $50,000 salary cap and $4,000 for sites with a $100,000, though there are a few exceptions if pricing really limits the number of players available.  So, for instance, you won’t see a DraftKings QB listed for more than $7,000 because the minimum price for a QB on DK is $5,000 and the salary cap is $50,000. You get the idea. You’ll also see the following columns:

Game Type: Is this a CASH (50/50, head-to-head), GPP (tournament), or Hail Mary (high risk/high reward for huge tournaments).

% of Total $: This tells you what percentage of your salary cap is being used up by using this player.

50/50 Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in 50/50 games.

GPP Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs).

Note: I generally aim for more than what is needed to actually cash. For example, in 2014 you needed an average of 111.21 FP and 121.85 FP to cash in 50/50s and GPPs on FanDuel, respectively. This equates to multiples of 1.85 and 2.03, though in the tables below the numbers I have listed assume FanDuel multiples of 2 for 50/50s and 2.5 for GPPs. If you can hit the multiples below, you’ll have a better chance of actually cashing. It’s obviously not a guarantee that you’ll cash – sometimes you can win a GPP on DraftKings with 180 FP, other times it takes 303! – but on average, hitting these numbers will give you a baseline for your expectations. Remember: Always aim for more. These picks should help act as a starting point in your research for low-priced, high-upside players. Remember, these picks have been made well ahead of time. Anything can happen between now and Sunday.

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Every week of this season, I’ve shown what it would take to cash and win in tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings. Since this is the last week of the season, I wanted to do just a little bit more. Using compiled information from DFS Gold, I’ve taken a look at what it would take to cash and win in both cash games and tournaments for the entire season. In the chart below, you’ll see two different averages for each of the two websites. One is a simple average of the winning amounts needed. The other is a weighted average that takes into account the entry fee and total number of entrants into each tournament. I only used results from Sunday-Monday slates (no single day, primetime, etc) that were compiled on DFS Gold. After I show this table, I’ll show how my picks have done throughout the season. Obviously I’ve just been providing one subset of an entire team in this article, but I thought it would be interesting to look at how the picks have done. If for no other reason, it will provide transparency. Without further ado…

 

Points Needed to Cash/Win on DK & FD in 2015

Final Stats

Cumulative Results, Weeks 1 – 16

Final Stats 2

So, all-in-all I think the season went rather well. While one would not have made rosters with value picks alone, they stacked up well against the real results, and bettered them in quite a few places. I’m obviously not taking into account defenses or, in the case of FanDuel, kickers, so take these comparisons with a grain of salt. They are not apples to apples, but more apples to pears. Anyways….The top sites, by far, were DraftKings and FantasyDraft. They clearly stood above the rest of the pack. Coming a close second were StarsDraft (which I stopped playing after the first 6 weeks due to changes in their policies), FantasyHub and DraftDay. FanDuel and FantasyAces rounded out the pack. There were a few reasons for the latter two being lower. The first is that they are both 0.5 PPR websites as opposed to full PPR. This makes a huge difference for guys like Bilal Powell, who has been a huge boon to value on other sites. The second is that their salaries and/or rosters are different (FanDuel $60K, FantasyAces 10 roster spots opposed to the usual 9). When I started putting this article together, I didn’t take into account these two items when making my value thresholds. In next year’s article, I will do value as a percent of salary as opposed to a flat value. That being said, the picks on these two websites were just worse than the others. It’s as simple as that. I hope you have had fun reading this throughout the year and that it was a good starting point for your research into bottom-of-the-barrel options.

Now…onto the picks for the last week!!!

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Quick Week 17 Notes

Happy New Year, everyone!

Well, this is the last week of the season. I may be doing a toned down article for the playoffs, so look out for that late next week. There is tons of value to be had this week, so let’s get down to it.

UPDATE: Zach Miller is OUT! He is, obviously, no longer recommended. Danny Amendola is playing, rendering Keshawn Martin moot as well. You can take a flier on him in a tournament if you have multiple lineups, but I don’t recommend it. Nate and Rueben are much, much safer.

 

Nate Washington is one of my favorite plays this week. He has scored in each of the three games he’s played in which Cecil Shorts has been out. Jacksonville offers absolutely no defense that can stop him. Hoyer will be throwing often, trying to lead the Texans to a tough win over the Jags, which will ensure them a spot in the playoffs. Washington is near minimum salary across the industry. Keshawn Martin is another excellent cheap option this week. He is risky at this point as Amendola actually has a chance to play this week. Pencil him in as a GPP flier in case Amendola ends up sitting. Rueben Randle has tremendous upside this week against the Eagles’ lack of secondary. One big play will pay off his salary. He’s worth a GPP play even with OBJ back. On sites where he is still cheap, Jordan Matthews is once again an excellent option.

RB is interesting this week. I’m likely paying up a bit more for a guy like DeAngelo Williams. That being said, DeMarco Murray is a very intriguing play this week against the Giants. With an interim coach at the helm, I would not be surprised to see them use Murray….finally. He’s risky, of course…Tournaments only. Rashad Jennings is also in play on the other side of the field from Murray. He’s had three solid games in a row and has been used heavily. There is no reason to fade him this week against a woeful Eagles run D. CJ Anderson has excellent upside this week against the Chargers. Will he stay healthy? Will the Broncos use him often? I have no idea. He’s not a cash play by any means, but he’s worth a look in tournaments.

QB is rife with value. Chalk picks like Eli Manning and Matt Ryan are cheap across the DFS landscape and should be used, despite the high ownership potential. My favorite cash play of the season — Ryan Fitzpatrick — is in play in a must win game against the Bills. I have no problem rolling him out again this week. Digging deeper, I like AJ McCarron at home against the Ravens’ D. He had a bit of an injury scare, but will start this week. He’s a low floor, medium upside play.

At TE, I love the Zachs. Both Zach Ertz and Zach Miller are fantastic options once again. Ertz has been playing well and gets the pathetic Giants’ TE defense (their entire pass D is horrid). Miller is the last guy standing in the Chicago receiving game. A word of warning, he is iffy this week…check the inactives tomorrow to make sure he is playing.

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So, let’s take a quick look at how we did in week 16.

 

Week 16 Recap

If last week wasn’t a tale of Jekyll and Hyde, then I don’t know what it was. There were really big highs (the average DraftKings multiple was 4.02 for the week) and really big lows (the average multiple on FanDuel was 1.58). So, let’s take a brief look at where we went right and wrong.

Minnesota demolished the Giants…good news for Teddy, right? Nope. It was the AP and McKinnon show. My goodness; the Vikings hardly had to pass, ruining what could have been big days for both Bridgewater and Diggs. Instead, they both dragged down the average massively. Cameron Artis-Payne was a bit of a let down. The Falcons provided a huge challenge for the Panthers, rendering the running game moot. Ben Watson ended up playing, but only played about half of the snaps after making the active roster at the last second. Will Tye was a let down after a string of five double digit efforts in a row.

On the bright side, Tim Hightower had an absolutely massive game. He alone was the reason many people won games last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick was his usual steady self, exceededing value once again. Kirk Cousins had a monster game, if you were able to roster him with the Saturday game. Zach Ertz similarly went off on Saturday night. Bilal Powell continued to be a pass catching beheamoth. Zach Miller is the last man standing in the Bears’ passing game and paid off. Finally, Rueben Randle took one to the house and hit value once again.

 

Best Week 16 Picks: Tim Hightower, Zach Ertz, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Rueben Randle, Zach Miller, Bilal Powell

Worst Week 16 Picks: Teddy Bridgewater, Ben Watson, Will Tye, Stefon Diggs, Tyler Lockett, Cameron Artis-Payne

Week 16 Results

Week 16 Results

Now that that’s all out of the way….onto the DFS value picks for Week 17!

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If you have any questions, please leave a message down below or hit me up on Twitter @ianrgold.

Note: I have asterisks next to guys with iffy injury statuses and those whose value depends on the injury status of another player. If the player ends up not playing or his value ends up diminished due to the status of another player (For example, I had Dwayne Harris listed as a play in Week 6, but his value was predicated upon Odell Beckham not playing.), I’ll either try to replace them (if time permits) or I’ll exclude them from the results.

 

DraftDay – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Matt RyanATLNOQBGPP$13,15013.2%19.726.3
Sam BradfordPHINYGQBGPP$13,15013.2%19.726.3
A.J. McCarronCINBALQBHail Mary$11,30011.3%17.022.6
DeMarco MurrayPHINYGRBHail Mary$9,8009.8%14.719.6
Jeremy LangfordCHIDETRBGPP$9,6009.6%14.419.2
Rashad JenningsNYGPHIRBGPP$9,2009.2%13.818.4
Devin FunchessCARTBWRHail Mary$6,0506.1%9.112.1
Keshawn MartinNEMIAWRGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Nate WashingtonHOUJAXWRCASH/GPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Tyler EifertCINBALTEGPP$9,9009.9%14.919.8
Zach MillerCHIDETTECASH/GPP$8,3508.4%12.516.7
Kyle RudolphMINGBTEGPP$6,5506.6%9.813.1

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Eli ManningNYGPHIQBCASH/GPP$5,60011.2%16.822.4
Matt RyanATLNOQBGPP$5,50011.0%16.522.0
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJBUFQBCASH/GPP$5,40010.8%16.221.6
DeMarco MurrayPHINYGRBHail Mary$4,0008.0%12.016.0
Rashad JenningsNYGPHIRBCASH/GPP$3,7007.4%11.114.8
Tre MasonSTLSFRBHail Mary$3,0006.0%9.012.0
Jordan MatthewsPHINYGWRCASH/GPP$4,7009.4%14.118.8
Rueben RandleNYGPHIWRGPP$3,6007.2%10.814.4
Nate WashingtonHOUJAXWRCASH/GPP$3,6007.2%10.814.4
Zach ErtzPHINYGTECASH/GPP$3,6007.2%10.814.4
Kyle RudolphMINGBTEGPP$3,5007.0%10.514.0
Vance McDonaldSFSTLTEHail Mary$3,0006.0%9.012.0

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

 

FantasyAces – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Sam BradfordPHINYGQBGPP$5,80011.6%17.423.2
Brian HoyerHOUJAXQBCASH$5,75011.5%17.323.0
A.J. McCarronCINBALQBHail Mary$5,70011.4%17.122.8
Rashad JenningsNYGPHIRBGPP$4,4508.9%13.417.8
DeMarco MurrayPHINYGRBHail Mary$4,1008.2%12.316.4
Tre MasonSTLSFRBHail Mary$3,9007.8%11.715.6
Tavon AustinSTLSFWRGPP$4,4508.9%13.417.8
Rueben RandleNYGPHIWRGPP$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Nate WashingtonHOUJAXWRCASH/GPP$4,2008.4%12.616.8
Kyle RudolphMINGBTEGPP$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Zach MillerCHIDETTECASH/GPP$4,0008.0%12.016.0
Vance McDonaldSFSTLTEHail Mary$4,0008.0%12.016.0

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOPPPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Eli ManningNYGPHIQBCASH/GPP$11,20011.2%16.822.4
Matt RyanATLNOQBGPP$10,80010.8%16.221.6
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJBUFQBCASH/GPP$10,60010.6%15.921.2
DeMarco MurrayPHINYGRBHail Mary$7,8007.8%11.715.6
Rashad JenningsNYGPHIRBCASH/GPP$7,3007.3%11.014.6
Tre MasonSTLSFRBHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Jordan MatthewsPHINYGWRGPP$9,2009.2%13.818.4
Rueben RandleNYGPHIWRGPP$7,0007.0%10.514.0
Nate WashingtonHOUJAXWRCASH/GPP$7,0007.0%10.514.0
Tyler EifertCINBALTEGPP$8,7008.7%13.117.4
Zach MillerCHIDETTECASH/GPP$8,6008.6%12.917.2
Zach ErtzPHINYGTECASH/GPP$7,0007.0%10.514.0

 

FantasyHub – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Eli ManningNYGPHIQBCASH/GPP$5,50011.0%16.519.3
Matt RyanATLNOQBGPP$5,10010.2%15.317.9
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJBUFQBCASH/GPP$5,00010.0%15.017.5
Tim HightowerNOATLRBCASH/GPP$4,4008.8%13.215.4
C.J. AndersonDENSDRBHail Mary$3,6007.2%10.812.6
Rashad JenningsNYGPHIRBGPP$3,4006.8%10.211.9
Jordan MatthewsPHINYGWRGPP$4,3008.6%12.915.1
Rueben RandleNYGPHIWRGPP$3,3006.6%9.911.6
Nate WashingtonHOUJAXWRCASH/GPP$3,1006.2%9.310.9
Kyle RudolphMINGBTEGPP$3,1006.2%9.310.9
Zach MillerCHIDETTECASH/GPP$3,0006.0%9.010.5
Zach ErtzPHINYGTECASH/GPP$3,0006.0%9.010.5

 

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