Week 16 DraftKings Value Picks
December 18, 2014 | Ian Goldsmith
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Andy Dalton: $5,900 Cincinnati vs Denver
This pick is not a vote of confidence in Andy Dalton; it’s a vote of confidence in the Denver run defense. The Broncos have allowed only one team to rush for more than 100 yards in a game since their bye week (week 4) and are giving up the 2nd fewest yards to RBs on the season. Hill and Bernard will have a tough time changing that. The Bengals’ best chances at winning are taking to the air. While Dalton is inconsistent, he’s very capable of having a big game. He’s very risky, even at this price, so don’t even think of using him in cash games. He makes for a great tournament play, however.
Alex Smith: $5,600 – Kansas City at Pittsburgh
Smith is my favorite value cash play at QB this week. When he has to pass, he’s very capable and doesn’t make mistakes (although, to be fair, it’s hard to throw interceptions when you are passing the ball five yards at a time, but I digress…). Pittsburgh’s offense will be relentless and Smith will have to take to the air. He’s thrown for just under 300 yards in each of the past two weeks and should flirt with that number once again against a defense that is ranked 28th against opposing QBs. He is a very safe play.
Joique Bell: $6,000 – Detroit at Chicago
While perhaps not a true value pick, Bell is in a great position to give you one of the highest returns on investment this week. Gone are the days of RBBC in Detroit. This is Bell’s team. He has at least 14 carries in each of the past five weeks and is averaging 3 receptions per game in that time frame. In Week 13, he destroyed this same Bears team for 107 total yards and 2 TDs. If you hadn’t believed it before, you can now see Chicago has given up with their decision to start Jimmy Clausen this week. Chicago in in shambles and Joique Bell and Detroit are ready to take advantage and solidify their playoff position.
Pierre Thomas: $3,800 – New Orleans vs Atlanta
Thomas is going to be on almost every one of my lineups at this price. Atlanta cannot stop running backs that catch the ball and Thomas is one of the top 5 pass catching RBs in the league. While Ingram tires the Falcons down the middle, Brees will find Thomas repeatedly on screens. He has at least 4 receptions in five of his past six games and grabbed 6 balls in the first meeting between these two teams. Remember, DraftKings gives 1 point per reception. At this price, he’s an absolute steal and opens up your salary to higher priced players in other positions.
Steve Smith: $4,100 – Baltimore at Houston
Smith’s price has dropped because he is just so darn inconsistent. 20 points one week, 5 points the next….Ugh. Still, he gets an excellent matchup this week against Texans team that is ranked 31st against the pass. Forsett will have a tough day, so Flacco will need to take to the air. Smith is obviously hit-or-miss, so use him sparingly and in tournaments only.
Albert Wilson: $3,000 – Kansas City at Pittsburgh
As I stated below, KC WRs have scored ZERO touchdowns this season, a stat that is pretty hard to fathom. That being said, I love Wilson as a cheap play in this game against a Pitt DST that is 27th against WRs. KC has needed another WR to step up and become a threat opposite of Bowe and Wilson has done admirably in the past two weeks. The rookie from Georgia State has 7 catches on 13 targets for 122 yards in the past two weeks. While these numbers aren’t mind-blowing, they have been good enough for him to hit 3X value in each of the past two weeks on DraftKings. This week sets up even better for him as Kansas City will have to pass all night long in order to keep up with Pittsburgh. He is my favorite minimum salary option this week, by far.
Travis Kelce: $4,600 – Kansas City at Pittsburgh
The Chiefs’ defense is not going to be able to stop the high-flying Steelers’ offense. If KC want to have any chance of winning, its offense better be rolling. Kelce needs to be a big part of that game plan. Pittsburgh is 21st against the TE position, giving up nearly 13 FP per game. Reid would be wise to utilize the second year Cincinnati player early and often. Did you know that KC WRs still have ZERO TDs on the season. ZERO!!!! Roll with Kelce.
Dwayne Allen: $3,800 – Indianapolis at Dallas
Allen has a TD in eight out of the eleven games that he has played this season. If that doesn’t speak consistency, I don’t know what does. Dallas gives up more than 17 FP per game to TEs, which ranks them 31st against the position. With Wayne nursing injuries and Hilton potentially limited or out, Luck will have to find Allen and Fleener repeatedly. This could be a big day for both Colts’ TEs.
The Bills are, without a doubt, the best DST this season. While they won’t set the record, their 49 sacks lead the NFL. They cause disruption in so many different ways, which has caused 30 turnovers, 2nd to only to J.J. Watt. While Carr has had some good games this season, he is in for a beating this week. Buffalo will feast on the rookie QB.
I was skeptical to use the Lions until Wednesday. This is a division game, after all, and I thought Chicago could put up a good fight. Well, the Bears are not starting Jimmy Clausen. According to Michael Silver, some of Clausen’s teammates think he will “light it up” on Sunday. Yeah, right. The Lions’ defense will eat Clausen – he of the 51.9 career completion percentage and 3:9 TD to INT ratio – alive. There are perhaps better cash options (Seahawks, Bills), but the Lions have huge upside this week.