Week 16 DFS Value Picks December 26, 2015  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

Check out our NFL DFS Cheat Sheet!

 

One of the best ways to separate yourself from the crowd in DFS is to be able to find players that are priced below where they should be for their potential output. Sometimes this is easy (e.g. when a starting RB is injured after prices are released and their low-priced backup all of a sudden is in line for a lot more work), sometimes it isn’t and requires a lot more research and – as is often the case – luck. However, as they say, preparation begets luck. Below, you’ll see six tables, each covering value plays from a different daily fantasy website. Picks are provided for DraftDay, DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyAces, FantasyDraft and FantasyHub.

There are three picks for each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE). You will see one cash pick, one tournament pick, and one high risk/high reward pick that should usually only be used in GPPs with thousands of players (such as the Million Dollar contests on FD and DK). The high risk/high reward pick will be listed as Hail Mary. The prices for each pick are capped at $2,000 above the minimum value for sites with a $50,000 salary cap and $4,000 for sites with a $100,000, though there are a few exceptions if pricing really limits the number of players available.  So, for instance, you won’t see a DraftKings QB listed for more than $7,000 because the minimum price for a QB on DK is $5,000 and the salary cap is $50,000. You get the idea. You’ll also see the following columns:

Game Type: Is this a CASH (50/50, head-to-head), GPP (tournament), or Hail Mary (high risk/high reward for huge tournaments).

% of Total $: This tells you what percentage of your salary cap is being used up by using this player.

50/50 Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in 50/50 games.

GPP Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs).

Note: I generally aim for more than what is needed to actually cash. For example, in 2014 you needed an average of 111.21 FP and 121.85 FP to cash in 50/50s and GPPs on FanDuel, respectively. This equates to multiples of 1.85 and 2.03, though in the tables below the numbers I have listed assume FanDuel multiples of 2 for 50/50s and 2.5 for GPPs. If you can hit the multiples below, you’ll have a better chance of actually cashing. It’s obviously not a guarantee that you’ll cash – sometimes you can win a GPP on DraftKings with 180 FP, other times it takes 303! – but on average, hitting these numbers will give you a baseline for your expectations. Remember: Always aim for more. These picks should help act as a starting point in your research for low-priced, high-upside players. Remember, these picks have been made well ahead of time. Anything can happen between now and Sunday.

Before going further, I’ve compiled a small table showing what you would have needed to cash in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and the FanDuel Sunday Million through the first fifteen weeks of the season. You’ll see the average needed to win as well as the equivalent multiple.

DFS Winning Scores——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Quick Week 16 Notes

Merry Christmas, everyone!

There is tons of value to be had this week, so let’s get down to it.

This week I actually prefer to pay up a little for QB, going mainly with guys like Ben Roethlisgerger and Blake Bortles, both of whom are too expensive for this article. There are, however, some cheaper plays that have the same upside as those two, albeit with a lower floor. The first guy on this list is Kirk Cousins, who continues to be way underpriced at DraftKings (he is underpriced on FantasyDraft as well, but unless you started him on the Thursday slate, there is no way to get him into your lineup, unfortunately). Take advantage and use him in a choice matchup against the Eagles, who are giving up the 3rd most FP to opposing QBs on DK. This is actually a fantastic matchup for the Washington running game as well, so feel free to take a chance in big tournaments on either Alfred Morris or Matt Jones, but only if you are entering multiple lineups.

Tyrod Taylor has a tougher matchup this week against Dallas. With all of the other value available, his ownership shouldn’t be too high. It was less than 4% on Thursday FanDuel slates, which is a good indicator of what it will be like come Sunday. I’m expecting the Bills to design a lot more running plays for TT as he has been losing receiving options left and right, though not his #1 WR Watkins. Ryan Fitzpatrick is another QB whose ownership will be very low, but should it be? He still was able to hit value in cash games last week, despite only finding the end zone once. The Jets are in must win territory. I expect the Fitzmagic to be present in a big way.

Denard Robinson is over any injury scares and is good to go in what is a fantastic matchup against New Orleans. TJ Yeldon should be out, leaving the majority of touches to the former Wolverine QB. He’s still cheap on a number of sites. Cameron Artis-Payne was the main beneficiary of Jonathan Stewart’s absence last week. Stewart should be out again, and CAP and the Panthers have a matchup against the very beatable Atlanta run D. He’ll have to contend with Cam and Tolbert stealing red zone touches, but I still like his upside at his price.

Late season fantasy darling Doug Baldwin is a game-time decision. If you can stomach waiting (the Hawks plan in an afternoon game), then his teammates Jermaine Kearse and Tyler Lockett both represent incredible value. Lockett is well known to DFSers after several strong weeks in a row, but why has nobody been talking about Kearse? He has 7 catches in each of the past two weeks and has scores 14.4 or more fantasy points in three of his past four. If Baldwin is out, those recent targets are almost sure to be a floor for Week 16. A great boom-or-bust option this week is Rueben Randle. With OBJ out, the targets have to go somewhere. Randle will definitely be a beneficiary, as will my favorite TE play of the past few weeks, Will Tye. Why has it taken until now for people to notice the guy??

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So, let’s take a quick look at how we did in week 15.

 

Week 15 Recap

Last week was pretty decent overall. Picks for five of six sites were higher than their season-long averages. The lone site that wasn’t, DraftKings, had an average multiple of 3.13, which was weighed down by poor performances by Heath Miller and Theo Riddick and a slew of so-so performances by Alex Smith, John Brown and Michael Floyd.

So, where did I go wrong? Bryce Brown ended up being a disappointment. The deep tournament only play was hurt as Christine Michael ended up taking the bulk of the Seattle carries. Sometimes you swing big and miss. Another poor play was Alex Smith. Smith was hurt primarily by the stellar play of his own defense. He didn’t have to do anything as the KC D scored twice. I mean, he was the ideal game manager, but that doesn’t help fantasy owners, does it? As mentioned before, there were underwhelming performances by John Brown and Michael Floyd. Like Smith, their fantasy production was stymied by their teammate, in this case David Johnson. His huge game on the ground rendered Carson Palmer and his aerial weapons moot.

What went right? Will Tye again came through. He’s finally getting some love, not because of his stellar play, but because OBJ was an idiot and will be missing this week due to suspension. With the extra looks likely to come his way, Tye could easily make this week the sixth in a row that he’s had double digit PPR points. Tyrod Taylor was pretty mediocre early on, but finished strong, leading to nearly 30 FP.

 

Best Week 15 Picks: Will Tye, Tyrod Taylor, Tyler Lockett, Ben Watson, Denard Robinson, Matt Stafford

Worst Week 15 Picks: Bryce Brown, Alex Smith, Michael Floyd, Matt Ryan

Week 15 Results

Week 15 Results

Now that that’s all out of the way….onto the DFS value picks for Week 16!

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If you have any questions, please leave a message down below or hit me up on Twitter @ianrgold.

Note: I have asterisks next to guys with iffy injury statuses and those whose value depends on the injury status of another player. If the player ends up not playing or his value ends up diminished due to the status of another player (For example, I had Dwayne Harris listed as a play in Week 6, but his value was predicated upon Odell Beckham not playing.), I’ll either try to replace them (if time permits) or I’ll exclude them from the results.

 

DraftDay – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Sam BradfordPHIWASQBGPP$12,85012.9%19.325.7
Jay CutlerCHITBQBGPP$12,45012.5%18.724.9
Teddy BridgewaterMINNYGQBHail Mary$12,30012.3%18.524.6
Denard Robinson*JAXNORBCASH/GPP$9,5509.6%14.319.1
Tim HightowerNOJAXRBHail Mary$9,3009.3%14.018.6
James WhiteNENYJRBGPP$9,3009.3%14.018.6
Rueben RandleNYGMINWRHail Mary$8,4508.5%12.716.9
Stefon DiggsMINNYGWRGPP$7,9508.0%11.915.9
Jermaine KearseSEASTLWRCASH/GPP$7,2507.3%10.914.5
Benjamin WatsonNOJAXTEGPP$8,4008.4%12.616.8
Zach MillerCHITBTEGPP$7,9007.9%11.915.8
Will TyeNYGMINTECASH$6,0006.0%9.012.0

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Alex SmithKCCLEQBCASH$6,80011.3%13.617.0
Teddy BridgewaterMINNYGQBHail Mary$6,60011.0%13.216.5
Sam BradfordPHIWASQBGPP$6,30010.5%12.615.8
Denard Robinson*JAXNORBCASH/GPP$6,40010.7%12.816.0
Bilal PowellNYJNERBCASH$5,9009.8%11.814.8
Cameron Artis-PayneCARATLRBGPP$5,6009.3%11.214.0
Tyler LockettSEASTLWRCASH/GPP$6,20010.3%12.415.5
Stefon DiggsMINNYGWRGPP$6,00010.0%12.015.0
Rueben RandleNYGMINWRHail Mary$5,7009.5%11.414.3
Zach MillerCHITBTEGPP$5,6009.3%11.214.0
Benjamin WatsonNOJAXTEGPP$5,6009.3%11.214.0
Will TyeNYGMINTECASH$5,1008.5%10.212.8

 

FantasyAces – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Blake BortlesJAXNOQBCASH/GPP$6,45012.9%19.425.8
Tyrod TaylorBUFDALQBCASH/GPP$6,30012.6%18.925.2
Teddy BridgewaterMINNYGQBHail Mary$5,60011.2%16.822.4
Darren McFaddenDALBUFRBCASH/GPP$4,7009.4%14.118.8
Bilal PowellNYJNERBGPP$4,5009.0%13.518.0
Denard Robinson*JAXNORBCASH/GPP$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Tyler LockettSEASTLWRGPP$4,6509.3%14.018.6
Jermaine KearseSEASTLWRGPP$4,4508.9%13.417.8
Rueben RandleNYGMINWRGPP$4,2008.4%12.616.8
Zach ErtzPHIWASTEGPP$4,4008.8%13.217.6
Zach MillerCHITBTEGPP$4,1008.2%12.316.4
Will TyeNYGMINTECASH/GPP$3,7007.4%11.114.8

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOPPPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Kirk CousinsWASPHIQBCASH/GPP$10,90010.9%16.421.8
Tyrod TaylorBUFDALQBCASH/GPP$10,80010.8%16.221.6
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJNEQBCASH$10,20010.2%15.320.4
James WhiteNENYJRBGPP$9,2009.2%13.818.4
Cameron Artis-PayneCARATLRBGPP$8,4008.4%12.616.8
Bilal PowellNYJNERBCASH/GPP$7,7007.7%11.615.4
DeSean JacksonWASPHIWRCASH/GPP$9,8009.8%14.719.6
Stefon DiggsMINNYGWRGPP$8,8008.8%13.217.6
Jermaine KearseSEASTLWRCASH/GPP$6,3006.3%9.512.6
Zach MillerCHITBTEGPP$7,8007.8%11.715.6
Will TyeNYGMINTECASH$7,0007.0%10.514.0
Zach ErtzPHIWASTEGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0

 

FantasyHub – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Tyrod TaylorBUFDALQBCASH/GPP$5,30010.6%15.918.6
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJNEQBCASH$5,00010.0%15.017.5
Teddy BridgewaterMINNYGQBHail Mary$5,00010.0%15.017.5
Darren McFaddenDALBUFRBCASH$4,7009.4%14.116.5
Cameron Artis-PayneCARATLRBGPP$4,2008.4%12.614.7
Bilal PowellNYJNERBCASH/GPP$3,8007.6%11.413.3
Tyler LockettSEASTLWRCASH/GPP$4,3008.6%12.915.1
Stefon DiggsMINNYGWRGPP$4,2008.4%12.614.7
Rueben RandleNYGMINWRHail Mary$3,3006.6%9.911.6
Jason WittenDALBUFTECASH$3,7007.4%11.113.0
Will TyeNOJAXTECASH$3,3006.6%9.911.6
Zach MillerCHITBTEGPP$3,0006.0%9.010.5

 

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