Week 15 DFS Value Picks December 19, 2015  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

Check out our NFL DFS Cheat Sheet!

 

One of the best ways to separate yourself from the crowd in DFS is to be able to find players that are priced below where they should be for their potential output. Sometimes this is easy (e.g. when a starting RB is injured after prices are released and their low-priced backup all of a sudden is in line for a lot more work), sometimes it isn’t and requires a lot more research and – as is often the case – luck. However, as they say, preparation begets luck. Below, you’ll see six tables, each covering value plays from a different daily fantasy website. Picks are provided for DraftDay, DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyAces, FantasyDraft and FantasyHub.

There are three picks for each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE). You will see one cash pick, one tournament pick, and one high risk/high reward pick that should usually only be used in GPPs with thousands of players (such as the Million Dollar contests on FD and DK). The high risk/high reward pick will be listed as Hail Mary. The prices for each pick are capped at $2,000 above the minimum value for sites with a $50,000 salary cap and $4,000 for sites with a $100,000, though there are a few exceptions if pricing really limits the number of players available.  So, for instance, you won’t see a DraftKings QB listed for more than $7,000 because the minimum price for a QB on DK is $5,000 and the salary cap is $50,000. You get the idea. You’ll also see the following columns:

Game Type: Is this a CASH (50/50, head-to-head), GPP (tournament), or Hail Mary (high risk/high reward for huge tournaments).

% of Total $: This tells you what percentage of your salary cap is being used up by using this player.

50/50 Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in 50/50 games.

GPP Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs).

Note: I generally aim for more than what is needed to actually cash. For example, in 2014 you needed an average of 111.21 FP and 121.85 FP to cash in 50/50s and GPPs on FanDuel, respectively. This equates to multiples of 1.85 and 2.03, though in the tables below the numbers I have listed assume FanDuel multiples of 2 for 50/50s and 2.5 for GPPs. If you can hit the multiples below, you’ll have a better chance of actually cashing. It’s obviously not a guarantee that you’ll cash – sometimes you can win a GPP on DraftKings with 180 FP, other times it takes 303! – but on average, hitting these numbers will give you a baseline for your expectations. Remember: Always aim for more. These picks should help act as a starting point in your research for low-priced, high-upside players. Remember, these picks have been made well ahead of time. Anything can happen between now and Sunday.

Before going further, I’ve compiled a small table showing what you would have needed to cash in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and the FanDuel Sunday Million through the first fourteen weeks of the season. You’ll see the average needed to win as well as the equivalent multiple.

DFS Winning Scores——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Quick Week 15 Notes

Forgive me if I go back to the well once again….Tyler Lockett is still priced very low across the industry, considering his recently string of huge performances: $4,200 on DraftKings, $4,000 on FantasyHub….How do you not pull the trigger on that price? Obviously don’t use him in every lineup, but he has become a legitimate WR2 in the past few weeks. With 13 catches in the past two weeks alone, it is clear that Russell Wilson loves throwing to the dynamic rookie. The other game I’ll be targeting value WRs is Arizona vs. Philly. Both Michael Floyd and John Brown offer very enticing potential against an easily beatable secondary. With Palmer playing like an MVP, you can feel safe in using the young wideouts this week.

There is a ton of value at RB again this week, which seems to be the theme of season. Denard Robinson is going to be the flavor of the week and should have fairly high ownership. With TJ Yeldon doubtful, he will be getting a ton of touches against Atlanta, whose defense has been very generous to opposing RBs on the season. Tim Hightower is still priced near minimum salary across the industry and should be getting a heavy workload against Detroit in what should be a very high scoring game. If you are the gambling type, you can take a chance on Bryce Brown, who will at least start as the #1 Seattle RB Sunday against Cleveland. He’s not available to use on every site, however, as his signing came a bit late for some places to price him in.

There is a ton of value once again at QB. One of my favorites this week is Matt Stafford, on websites where he is cheap. I think tomorrow’s game against New Orleans will be one with little to no defense with both aerial attacks firing on all cylinders. I love stacking him with Tate (psst…Megatron is useful this week as well). Alex Smith has fantastic upside against the Ravens. A Smith/Maclin stack will be appearing in many of my lineups tomorrow, and I suggest you do the same in a couple. Last, but not least, Tyrod Taylor has a chance to be his usual dynamic self this week against Washington. You could do worse than stacking him with Watkins again and watching them destroy the Washington secondary.

TE is a mixed bag. I’m actually going to pay up for Gronk on a few sites, but on the ones I’m not I’ll be using a lot of Julius Thomas, Ben Watson and Zach Miller. Don’t forget about Will Tye either. He has been a favorite of Manning’s in the last few weeks and has, amazingly, scored

——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

So, let’s take a quick look at how we did in week 14.

 

Week 14 Recap

In what was a fairly low scoring week across the DFS landscape, the value was able to shine through thanks in large part to a trio of Seattle Seahawks. First, however, let’s recap what inevitably went wrong….

I was so excited with Shaun Draughn last week. He had been playing well for several weeks in a row, especially in the passing game, and walked into Week 14 with an excellent matchup against the Browns. Unfortunately for Draughn users, the game flow was all wrong for fantasy production. The Browns scored first and dominated the Niners, amassing 481 yards to San Francisco’s 221. Ouch. Draughn didn’t have a chance to get going. I had a few teams with him and Rawls….Ugh.

Charcandrick West almost had a big game. He had a 63 yard screen pass called back due to a penalty and that was that. He ran fairly well, but KC couldn’t get the ball moving in the cold wet mid-December Missouri weather. He was a deep tournament play (largely due to the split in carries with Ware) that didn’t pan out. C’est la vie. Ryan Mathews, DeVante Parker, Vincent and DeSean Jackson were some of the other mentioned plays that underwhelmed for one reason or another.

So, where did the picks go right? Well, everything’s coming up Emerald in the fantasy world. Seahawks, Seahawks, Seahawks. I hope you played them. Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett all had HUGE games. If you rostered two of them, then you probably guaranteed yourself a high finish this week. I hope you took advantage of their recent run of good play and their fantastic matchup.

Ryan Fitzpatrick once again brought the magic. He’s a top-8 fantasy QB on the season, folks. He never ruins your weeks and, more often than not, surprises with upside. He is making Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker relevant each and every week and may lead the Jets to a playoff berth. Will Tye has been one of Eli’s favorite targets in recent weeks and came through once again for 14 PPR fantasy points on Monday night. Julius Thomas continued his recent string of solid production and James White came through for those who took a chance on him.

My picks for FantasyDraft were, by far, the leading multiple winner last week. Picks for DraftKings, FantasyHub and FanDuel were solid. DraftDay picks were OK, but the combination of Draughn, Mathews, ASJ and DeSean Jackson really brought the average down. FantasyAces picks were the worst of the week, hands down.

NOTE: Scott Chandler was not included in the results. It was advised to only play him if Gronk sat. Gronk did not sit. Gronk Gronked.

 

Best Week 14 Picks: Russell Wilson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyler Lockett, Will Tye, James White, Doug Baldwin, Julius Thomas

Worst Week 14 Picks: Shaun Draughn, Ryan Mathews, DeVante Parker, Charcandrick West, Vincent Jackson, ASJ

Week 14 Results

Week 14 Results

Now that that’s all out of the way….onto the DFS value picks for Week 15!

——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

If you have any questions, please leave a message down below or hit me up on Twitter @ianrgold.

Note: I have asterisks next to guys with iffy injury statuses and those whose value depends on the injury status of another player. If the player ends up not playing or his value ends up diminished due to the status of another player (For example, I had Dwayne Harris listed as a play in Week 6, but his value was predicated upon Odell Beckham not playing.), I’ll either try to replace them (if time permits) or I’ll exclude them from the results.

 

DraftDay – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Alex SmithKCBALQBCASH/GPP$14,05014.1%21.128.1
Matt RyanATLJAXQBGPP$13,55013.6%20.327.1
Kirk CousinsWASBUFQBGPP$13,35013.4%20.026.7
Denard RobinsonJAXATLRBCASH$8,3508.4%12.516.7
Bryce BrownSEACLERBHail Mary$6,4006.4%9.612.8
Tim HightowerNODETRBCASH/GPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Tyler LockettSEACLEWRGPP$9,4509.5%14.218.9
Allen HurnsJAXATLWRCASH/GPP$9,1009.1%13.718.2
Willie SneadNODETWRHail Mary$8,3508.4%12.516.7
Zach MillerCHIMINTEGPP$7,6007.6%11.415.2
Benjamin WatsonNODETTECASH/GPP$6,7506.8%10.113.5
Will TyeNYGCARTEGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Matt StaffordDETNOQBCASH/GPP$6,10012.2%18.324.4
Tyrod TaylorBUFWASQBCASH/GPP$5,60011.2%16.822.4
Alex SmithKCBALQBCASH/GPP$5,10010.2%15.320.4
Denard RobinsonJAXATLRBCASH/GPP$4,6009.2%13.818.4
Theo RiddickDETNORBCASH$4,0008.0%12.016.0
Tim HightowerNODETRBGPP$3,9007.8%11.715.6
John BrownAZPHIWRGPP$4,9009.8%14.719.6
Michael FloydAZPHIWRCASH/GPP$4,4008.8%13.217.6
Tyler LockettSEACLEWRGPP$4,2008.4%12.616.8
Heath MillerPITDENTECASH$3,7007.4%11.114.8
Zach MillerCHIMINTECASH/GPP$3,6007.2%10.814.4
Will TyeNYGCARTEGPP$3,1006.2%9.312.4

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Alex SmithKCBALQBCASH$7,00011.7%14.017.5
Jay CutlerCHIMINQBGPP$6,70011.2%13.416.8
AJ McCarronCINSFQBHail Mary$6,00010.0%12.015.0
David JohnsonAZPHIRBCASH/GPP$6,50010.8%13.016.3
Denard RobinsonJAXATLRBGPP$6,30010.5%12.615.8
Tim HightowerNODETRBGPP$6,30010.5%12.615.8
Michael FloydAZPHIWRCASH/GPP$6,10010.2%12.215.3
Tyler LockettSEACLEWRGPP$6,00010.0%12.015.0
Williw SneadNODETWRHail Mary$6,00010.0%12.015.0
Benjamin WatsonNODETTECASH/GPP$5,6009.3%11.214.0
Zach MillerCHIMINTEGPP$5,5009.2%11.013.8
Will TyeNYGCARTEGPP$4,9008.2%9.812.3

 

FantasyAces – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Tyrod TaylorBUFWASQBCASH/GPP$6,00012.0%18.024.0
Alex SmithKCBALQBCASH/GPP$5,90011.8%17.723.6
AJ McCarronCINSFQBHail Mary$5,40010.8%16.221.6
Tim HightowerNODETRBGPP$4,5509.1%13.718.2
Denard RobinsonJAXATLRBCASH/GPP$4,2008.4%12.616.8
Bryce BrownSEACLERBHail Mary$3,0006.0%9.012.0
Tyler LockettSEACLEWRGPP$4,6009.2%13.818.4
Brandin CooksNODETWRGPP$4,8509.7%14.619.4
John BrownAZPHIWRGPP$4,8009.6%14.419.2
Benjamin WatsonNODETTEGPP$4,5009.0%13.518.0
Zach MillerCHIMINTEGPP$4,1008.2%12.316.4
Will TyeNYGCARTECASH/GPP$3,3006.6%9.913.2

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOPPPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Matt StaffordDETNOQBCASH/GPP$11,40011.4%17.122.8
Tyrod TaylorBUFWASQBCASH/GPP$11,20011.2%16.822.4
Alex SmithKCBUFQBCASH/GPP$10,10010.1%15.220.2
Denard RobinsonJAXATLRBCASH$9,1009.1%13.718.2
Tim HightowerNODETRBGPP$7,7007.7%11.615.4
Brandon BoldenNETENRBHail Mary$6,3006.3%9.512.6
Michael FloydAZPHIWRCASH/GPP$8,7008.7%13.117.4
Tyler LockettSEACLEWRGPP$8,4008.4%12.616.8
John BrownAZPHIWRGPP$9,8009.8%14.719.6
Ben WatsonNODETTECASH/GPP$8,9008.9%13.417.8
Zach MillerCHIMINTEGPP$7,1007.1%10.714.2
Will TyeNYGCARTEGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0

 

FantasyHub – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Matt StaffordDETNOQBCASH/GPP$5,90011.8%17.720.7
Tyrod TaylorBUFWASQBCASH/GPP$5,40010.8%16.218.9
Alex SmithKCBALQBCASH/GPP$5,00010.0%15.017.5
Denard RobinsonJAXATLRBCASH/GPP$4,4008.8%13.215.4
Tim HightowerNODETRBGPP$3,8007.6%11.413.3
Bryce BrownSEACLERBHail Mary$3,0006.0%9.010.5
Michael FloydAZPHIWRCASH/GPP$4,2008.4%12.614.7
Tyler LockettSEACLEWRGPP$4,0008.0%12.014.0
John BrownAZPHIWRGPP$4,7009.4%14.116.5
Julius ThomasJAXATLTECASH$4,5009.0%13.515.8
Zach MillerCHIMINTEGPP$3,0006.0%9.010.5
Will TyeNYGCARTEGPP$3,0006.0%9.010.5

 

Leave a Reply

2015 DFS

The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Divisional Playoffs WEEKEND UPDATE

  The Huddle – Opening Statement There will be no “My Guys” section as you can plainly see my rankings. The top few guys are “my guys”, the bottom guys are…um, not. New information and thoughts will be in bolded italics. Welcome to the Playoff – Divisional Round Hail Mary. This is ...

READ MORE

Divisional Round DFS Cheat Sheet (UPDATED)

  Welcome to The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet for the Divisional Round! . With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Chet Gresham, Ian Goldsmith and Doug Shain, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks ...

READ MORE

The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Divisional Playoffs FIRST LOOK

    The Huddle – Opening Statement Welcome to the Playoff – Divisional Round Hail Mary. This is going to be a REALLY abbreviated version of the Hail Mary with only 4 games on the schedule. I’m going to do the article a little differently this week since there are so few ...

READ MORE