Week 14 DFS Value Picks December 13, 2015  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

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One of the best ways to separate yourself from the crowd in DFS is to be able to find players that are priced below where they should be for their potential output. Sometimes this is easy (e.g. when a starting RB is injured after prices are released and their low-priced backup all of a sudden is in line for a lot more work), sometimes it isn’t and requires a lot more research and – as is often the case – luck. However, as they say, preparation begets luck. Below, you’ll see six tables, each covering value plays from a different daily fantasy website. Picks are provided for DraftDay, DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyAces, FantasyDraft and FantasyHub.

There are three picks for each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE). You will see one cash pick, one tournament pick, and one high risk/high reward pick that should usually only be used in GPPs with thousands of players (such as the Million Dollar contests on FD and DK). The high risk/high reward pick will be listed as Hail Mary. The prices for each pick are capped at $2,000 above the minimum value for sites with a $50,000 salary cap and $4,000 for sites with a $100,000, though there are a few exceptions if pricing really limits the number of players available.  So, for instance, you won’t see a DraftKings QB listed for more than $7,000 because the minimum price for a QB on DK is $5,000 and the salary cap is $50,000. You get the idea. You’ll also see the following columns:

Game Type: Is this a CASH (50/50, head-to-head), GPP (tournament), or Hail Mary (high risk/high reward for huge tournaments).

% of Total $: This tells you what percentage of your salary cap is being used up by using this player.

50/50 Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in 50/50 games.

GPP Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs).

Note: I generally aim for more than what is needed to actually cash. For example, in 2014 you needed an average of 111.21 FP and 121.85 FP to cash in 50/50s and GPPs on FanDuel, respectively. This equates to multiples of 1.85 and 2.03, though in the tables below the numbers I have listed assume FanDuel multiples of 2 for 50/50s and 2.5 for GPPs. If you can hit the multiples below, you’ll have a better chance of actually cashing. It’s obviously not a guarantee that you’ll cash – sometimes you can win a GPP on DraftKings with 180 FP, other times it takes 303! – but on average, hitting these numbers will give you a baseline for your expectations. Remember: Always aim for more. These picks should help act as a starting point in your research for low-priced, high-upside players. Remember, these picks have been made well ahead of time. Anything can happen between now and Sunday.

Before going further, I’ve compiled a small table showing what you would have needed to cash in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and the FanDuel Sunday Million through the first thirteen weeks of the season. You’ll see the average needed to win as well as the equivalent multiple.

DFS Winning Scores——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Quick Week 14 Notes

Value abounds this week, especially at the QB position. Russell Wilson is, surprisingly, still fairly reasonably priced on a couple of different sites, especially FantasyHub where he is $6,100. My favorite plays that are cheap across the industry are Jameis Winston against the pathetic Saints pass defense, Tyrod Taylor against a beatable Eagles secondaryand Ryan Fitzpatrick, who gets the Titans. If you want to go bottom of the barrel, there is value to be had in Blaine Gabbert and Brock Osweiler as well. Both should have no problem hitting value, though they should be reserved for tournament use.

At RB, my favorite value play is Shaun Draughn, who gets a fantastic matchup against the Browns. He has been playing well as of late and is going to be rostered on a large number of my teams. Charcandrick West gets the patchwork Chargers at home. The problem here is that we don’t know the split in usage between him and Ware. Frankly, the Chiefs will probably be so dominant tomorrow that both could have huge games. The other back I love, especially as a deep tournament play, is James White. He looks to have taken over the receiving RB role for Belichick, but nobody knows how he’ll be used this week…let’s be perfectly honest. Still, we saw the huge upside he has in that role, so he’s worth rostering in a lineup or two.

Doug Baldwin is still cheap on most sites. The matchup looks to be a slam dunk, especially with how Wilson has been playing. I’m having a hard time leaving him off rosters. DeVante Parker is on everyone’s radar after two big weeks in a row. He gets a great matchup on Monday night against the Giants. Vincent Jackson has as much upside as anybody this week against the Saints. Hell, you could put together a roster with him, Winston, Martin, Evans and ASF and it would probably hit value and then some….That defense is just SO bad. Simply terrible.

Scott Chandler is in play IF Gronk doesn’t play, which looks like it could happen. Unfortunately, this game isn’t until the evening, so it’s best to avoid the situation entirely unless you are playing on a late-swap site. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is worth a shot in tournaments. It’s nice to see him on the field; we all know the big upside he brings if Winston looks his way often. Will Tye will be on a lot of my rosters, as he is near minimum salary across the industry and has become one of Eli’s favorite targets. He’s worth using in all kinds of tournaments.

UPDATE: It looks like Gronk is going to play. If you want to use Chandler, do so only on late-swap sites. If Gronk does play, you can then swap from Chandler to Will Tye, who plays Monday night. Ryan Mathews is looking more and more like a great GPP play as kickoff nears. He’s worth adding on a team or two.

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So, let’s take a quick look at how we did in week 13.

 

Week 13 Recap

Well, it was a pretty good week last week, save for a few rotten eggs. Let’s briefly go over the bad and the good….

Bad: Ryan Tannehill was a perfectly acceptable real life QB last week, but boy did he hurt fantasy teams. The matchup was so enticing, but the only thing that worked was the TD to Parker. Ugh…I’m staying away for the rest of the seaon, most likely. Matt Hasselbeck got hurt, but he was terribly underwhelming against the Steelers before he went down. Similarly, Vance McDonald, who had been developing a great rapport with Gabbert the past few weeks, went down after a disappointing start. C.J. Anderson? Another injury. It’s so frustrating when good matchups are ruined in such a manner, but c’est la vie. Hopefully he’ll be on the field tomorrow.

Good: Marcus Mariota was on FIRE! As a Ducks fan, it has been so fun to watch his development this season; it was such a treat to finally see him have a huge game on the ground as well as in the air. He looks like the real deal: poised, and mistake averse. Danny Amendola continued to please in Gronk and Edelman’s absences. He should be a focus of the offense once again Sunday night. Scott Chandler filled in admirably at TE for the Pats as well. He has a shot at another good fantasy return this week, unless Gronk comes back, which may happen. David Johnson gave us a fantastic performance, and was one of the reasons that scores were so universally high in DFS last week.

Best Week 13 Picks: Marcus Mariota, Ryan Fitzpatrick, David Johnson, Scott Chandler, Danny Amendola

Worst Week 13 Picks: Ryan Tannehill, Kyle Rudolph, Matt Hasselbeck, Vance McDonald, C.J. Anderson

Week 13 Results

Week 13 Results

Now that that’s all out of the way….onto the DFS value picks for Week 14!

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If you have any questions, please leave a message down below or hit me up on Twitter @ianrgold.

Note: I have asterisks next to guys with iffy injury statuses and those whose value depends on the injury status of another player. If the player ends up not playing or his value ends up diminished due to the status of another player (For example, I had Dwayne Harris listed as a play in Week 6, but his value was predicated upon Odell Beckham not playing.), I’ll either try to replace them (if time permits) or I’ll exclude them from the results.

 

DraftDay – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Tyrod TaylorBUFPHIQBCASH/GPP$13,85013.9%20.827.7
Blaine GabbertSFCLEQBGPP$11,10011.1%16.722.2
Brock OsweilerDENOAKQBHail Mary$12,30012.3%18.524.6
Shaun DraughnSFCLERBCASH$8,9509.0%13.417.9
Ryan MathewsPHIBUFRBHail Mary$8,9509.0%13.417.9
James WhiteNEHOURBGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Allen HurnsJAXINDWRGPP$9,2009.2%13.818.4
DeSean JacksonWASCHIWRGPP$9,0009.0%13.518.0
Tyler LockettSEABALWRGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Austin Seferian-JenkinsTBNOTEHail Mary$8,6508.7%13.017.3
Scott Chandler*NEHOUTEGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Will TyeNYGMIATECASH/GPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Jameis WinstonTBNOQBCASH/GPP$5,50011.0%16.522.0
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJTENQBCASH$5,40010.8%16.221.6
Tyrod TaylorBUFPHIQBCASH/GPP$5,40010.8%16.221.6
Shaun DraughnSFCLERBCASH$4,8009.6%14.419.2
Ryan MathewsPHIBUFRBGPP$3,4006.8%10.213.6
James WhiteNEHOURBHail Mary$4,1008.2%12.316.4
Doug BaldwinSEABALWRCASH/GPP$4,5009.0%13.518.0
Vincent JacksonTBNOWRGPP$4,5009.0%13.518.0
Tyler LockettSEABALWRHail Mary$3,5007.0%10.514.0
Austin Seferian-JenkinsTBNOTECASH/GPP$2,7005.4%8.110.8
Scott Chandler*NEHOUTEGPP$3,8007.6%11.415.2
Will TyeNYGMIATEGPP$2,8005.6%8.411.2

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Alex SmithKCSDQBCASH$6,80011.3%13.617.0
Jay CutlerCHIWASQBGPP$6,70011.2%13.416.8
Blaine GabbertSFCLEQBCASH/GPP$6,40010.7%12.816.0
Shaun DraughnSFCLERBCASH$6,50010.8%13.016.3
Charcandrick WestKCSDRBGPP$5,8009.7%11.614.5
Tim HightowerNOTBRBHail Mary$4,5007.5%9.011.3
DeVante ParkerMIANYGWRGPP$5,9009.8%11.814.8
Tyler LockettSEABALWRGPP$5,6009.3%11.214.0
Dorial Green-BeckhamTENNYJWRHail Mary$5,1008.5%10.212.8
Austin Seferian-JenkinsTBNOTECASH$5,5009.2%11.013.8
Scott Chandler*NEHOUTEGPP$5,8009.7%11.614.5
Will TyeNYGMIATEHail Mary$4,9008.2%9.812.3

 

FantasyAces – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Tyrod TaylorBUFPHIQBCASH/GPP$6,10012.2%18.324.4
Brock OsweilerDENOAKQBCASH$5,50011.0%16.522.0
Blaine GabbertSFCLEQBGPP$5,30010.6%15.921.2
Charcandrick WestKCSDRBGPP$4,8009.6%14.419.2
Shaun DraughnSFCLERBCASH$4,7509.5%14.319.0
Frank GoreINDJAXRBGPP$4,4508.9%13.417.8
DeSean JacksonWASCHIWRGPP$4,7009.4%14.118.8
Vincent JacksonTBNOWRCASH/GPP$4,8009.6%14.419.2
DeVante ParkerMIANYGWRGPP$4,2008.4%12.616.8
Austin Seferian-JenkinsTBNOTEGPP$4,5009.0%13.518.0
Julius ThomasJAXINDTEGPP$4,5009.0%13.518.0
Will TyeNYGMIATECASH/GPP$3,3006.6%9.913.2

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOPPPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Russell WilsonSEABALQBCASH/GPP$11,90011.9%17.923.8
Tyrod TaylorBUFPHIQBCASH/GPP$10,60010.6%15.921.2
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJTENQBCASH/GPP$10,60010.6%15.921.2
Shaun DraugnSFCLERBCASH$9,5009.5%14.319.0
Bilal PowellNYJTENRBGPP$6,9006.9%10.413.8
James WhiteNEHOURBHail Mary$8,1008.1%12.216.2
Doug BaldwinSEABALWRCASH/GPP$8,8008.8%13.217.6
DeVante ParkerMIANYGWRGPP$7,8007.8%11.715.6
Dorial Green-BeckhamTENNYJWRHail Mary$7,3007.3%11.014.6
Jordan ReedWASCHITEGPP$9,6009.6%14.419.2
Julius ThomasJAXINDTEGPP$8,0008.0%12.016.0
Will TyeNYGMIATECASH/GPP$5,5005.5%8.311.0

 

FantasyHub – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Russell WilsonSEABALQBCASH/GPP$6,10012.2%18.321.4
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJTENQBGPP$5,20010.4%15.618.2
Tyrod TaylorBUFPHIQBCASH/GPP$5,30010.6%15.918.6
Shaun DraughnSFCLERBCASH/GPP$4,6009.2%13.816.1
Charcandrick WestKCSDRBGPP$5,00010.0%15.017.5
James WhiteNEHOURBHail Mary$3,9007.8%11.713.7
Doug BaldwinSEABALWRCASH/GPP$4,3008.6%12.915.1
Danny AmendolaNEHOUWRCASH/GPP$5,00010.0%15.017.5
Vincent JacksonTBNOWRGPP$4,4008.8%13.215.4
Julius ThomasJAXINDTEGPP$4,0008.0%12.014.0
Scott Chandler*NEHOUTEGPP$3,6007.2%10.812.6
Will TyeNYGMIATECASH/GPP$3,0006.0%9.010.5

 

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