Week 14 DFS Cheat Sheet: FantasyDraft and Yahoo! (UPDATED)
December 10, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 14 of the 2016 The Fake Football FantasyDraft and Yahoo! DFS Cheat Sheet!
. With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Doug Shain, Chet Gresham, and Justin Bales we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FantasyDraft and Yahoo!, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news. And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
Join Yahoo’s Yearly DFS League for FREE in the Yahoo Cup Freeroll!
Cleveland vs Cincinnati — High near 34. South wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
The wind here isn’t high enough to kill the passing game, but combined with snow, it could slow things down (see Chicago/SF from last week)
Buffalo vs Pittsburgh — Light snow before 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High near 32. South wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
As it is, this game should be okay for both offenses.
Green Bay vs Seattle — East northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Total daytime snow accumulation of around 4 inches. Then, A chance of snow and freezing drizzle before 10pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 20. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 9 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Not much wind and the main snow event is supposed to happen during the day. This isn’t looking as bas as before. The snow on the ground could cause footing issues, but I’ll be using players from this game as usual.
Tennessee vs Denver — A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
The winds are the concern here and they could hurt the deep passing game for both sides.
Miami vs Arizona — 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Windy, with an east wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Wind is the concern in this gam as well, but the Cardinals have been working with a shorter passing game of late. I’m not going to downgrade them too much.
Sunday Injury Update:
Theo Riddick is out. Upgrade Golden Tate and Eric Ebron. Zach Zenner and Dwayne Washington should share work.
Marquess Wilson is out. Cameron Meredith and Josh Bellamy are a bit safer now.
Atlanta is pessimistic about Julio Jones this morning. Get him out of your lineups and give Taylor Gabriel a bump.
Michael Thomas is a game time decision and with the late game he is too risky for DFS.
Chris Ivory won’t play. T.J. Yeldon will be the primary
Mark Ingram returned to practice Friday and is expected to play against the Bucs. It’s impossible to know the extent of his toe injury and if he might aggravate it during the game, so it’s tough to make a solid play out of him or Tim Hightower. Both have value in redraft as usual, but I’m fading in DFS.
Michael Thomas returned to practice on Friday and looks as if he’ll be able to go in a good matchup. There is some risk due to his injuries, but he’s been too good not to play.
Charles Sims will be active against the Saints. Adam Humphries is out and Cecil Shorts is on I.R., so the Bucs will be in need of some receiving help and Sims could easily fill that role. He’s not a safe play without a recent history of work, but he does have upside.
With Humphries and Shorts out, also expect a glut of targets for Mike Evans and Cameron Brate, making them safe plays. Russell Shepard has some deep league appeal, but is still risky.
Justin Forsett says he know 99% of Coach Kubiak’s offense, which should help him see plenty of work against the Titans, but not knowing what the true split will be between him and Devontae Booker makes for a tough fantasy decision. I’d still lean Booker of Forsett.
D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports Julio Jones will be “a decoy at best” against the Rams. He could of course go off for 200 yards, but the odds look pretty slim. Mohamed Sanu is out for sure, so that leaves Taylor Gabriel as the No. 1 receiver if Jones truly is just a decoy. Austin Hooper, Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman should see an increase in targets, but Gabriel would become a much safer play, as he’s done well already on limited targets.
Benny Cunningham is out, which helps Todd Gurley’s upside in a game where he’ll likely be used as a receiver more than usual.
The Bears receivers have some upside, but all three of Marquess Wilson, Josh Bellamy and Cameron Meredith look like they will play. Wilson and Bellamy have been limited in practice this week with injuries, so I’s lean toward Meredith as a flier if needed.
Theo Riddick, Eric Ebron and Marvin Jones will all play despite being limited in practices this week. The Bears defense has been decent enough to keep teams from building huge stats against them, but they can be beat and all three of these players have fantasy value.
DeVante Parker will play, but does get a tough matchup with Patrick Peterson. I’m fading him for the most part.
Both Jordan Matthews and Ryan Mathews will play against Washington. Both have a little upside in this one, but aren’t slam dunk options.
Jodan Reed is questionable, but looks like he’ll try to play. He’s too good not to start if he’s playing and we’ll know early.
Both Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods will play, which is a good bump for Sammy Watkins who will likely need to throw the ball more if the Steelers can score like they usually do.
Martellus Bennett is not 100 percent, but will continue playing with his injuries. A touchdown is still a decent possibility, but in the fantasy playoffs I’d like someone a bit safer if possible.
UPDATED Sample FantasyDraft Lineups
FantasyDraft Lineup Configurations
Let this be your weekly reminder that we are not trying to come in first place in a cash game, we are merely trying to finish in the top half of our tournaments. This means that we are going to worry a lot more about our floor than our ceiling. I don’t think that there is a safer QB play than Matthew Stafford this weekend. He’s been playing so well for the better part of a year now. He’s making great decisions, finding the open WR, and avoiding costly mistakes. A matchup against the Bears is not scary at all even if it limits his upside a little bit due (they have given up the 10th least fantasy points to opposing QB). Golden Tate and Kenny Britt have been getting consistent targets (volume = points) every week and at their reasonable prices, they fit in very well with what I wanted to do at RB. That thing I wanted to do with RB is attack some of the better matchups on the board (Forte vs SF and Hill vs CLE) as well as get Mr. Consistency himself, David Johnson. Paying $18.6k for DJ is rough but he’s the surest thing in fantasy right now and I’m more than happy to pay for that in cash games. As you can see, you can still find value if you’re not trying to hit home run at every position. I rounded out my Flex spots with Frank Gore who is getting 15+ touches and about 70 yards per game on the season. To lock that in, with some touchdown upside, for under $10k was nice. I did have to go min-priced for my TE but I love the matchup for Gresham and how consistent he’s been playing over the last month or so. I think he can put up 10 points, which is all I really need. As always, I don’t mess around with my defense in cash games so I paid all the way up for the Vikings against the human Pick Six machine, Blake Bortles.
As I’ve been doing recently, I decided to narrow down the field of potential plays to those guys that I highlighted on this week’s Cheat Sheet. This allowed me to mix and match players that I felt strongly about while not deviating too much from what lead me to put those players on the sheet in the first place.
The more I think about configuring GPP lineups, the more I realize it’s about having a core group of players and then finding different iterations of players at the remaining positions. You’ll see that I didn’t always include every one of my staple plays but most of them show up in most of my lineups. By using them consistently and then shifting the supporting cast, I’m increasing my potential to hit a big score if my core guys go off. The reason I picked those players as my core group is that I’m finding there is a lot of value out there with the pass catchers. My staple plays this week are Mike Evans, Jeremy Hill, DeMarco Murray, Thomas Rawls, Odell Beckham Jr, and Jermaine Gresham.
The price/matchup combination for Rawls lead me to believe that he’d be very chalky this weekend. Judging by the ownership percentages from the Thursday slates I was pretty wrong on this assumption. This is one of those cases where I love being wrong. I really want to use Rawls this week and I actually think he’s a better GPP play than a guy like Forte. Everyone is going to be on Forte and we don’t know how the Jets are going to play with Petty at QB. Forte could go off, I suppose, but I’d rather use him in a cash game with his high ownership and use Rawls and his upside in a GPP.
I’m pretty well locked in on using two stud WR this weekend and not much is going to get me off them. I love the matchup for Mike Evans and am more than willing to deal with his high ownership. By pairing him with a low-owned Odell Beckham, I’m effectively lowering that ownership hit I’m going to take. I don’t know if there’s a WR combination I could come up with this weekend that has a higher upside than these two. If I’m somehow able to save money elsewhere and fit in DeMarco Murray or David Johnson with those two, then all the better.
Sample Yahoo! Lineups
Sunday 50/50 (Updated)
Sunday GPP (Updated)
Yahoo! Lineup Configurations
This is a boom or bust tournament team. I started with a three man stack of the Bucs. Jameis Winston and Mike Evans are the obvious two, but I also used Charles Sims. Sims is expected to be activated off the IR this week, and he comes with an extremely low price tag. The Bucs are also struggling to keep wide receivers healthy, and Sims could immediately help in the passing game. Robby Anderson was another cheap option, who saw 12 targets last week with Bryce Petty at quarterback. He’s far from a great player, but he should see more than enough opportunities to his value this week. Ladarius Green’s role in the Steelers offense is on the rise, and he’s still too cheap. Allen Robinson has the talent of an elite receiver, but he has been struggling quite a bit recently. He comes with a low price tag, and he’s one of the biggest boom or bust options on the slate. Jordy Nelson gets a matchup against the Seahawks, who recently lost Earl Thomas to an injury, and he could be able to take advantage of that. David Johnson has been a consistent option with elite upside every week, which is why I paid up for him. Last, the Jets defense fit into the lineup, and they get a great matchup against the 49ers.
The Redskins are a team that loves throwing the ball in close games, which is exactly what this game is projected to be. Crowder continues to be underpriced, along with Vernon Davis if Jordan Reed is ruled out this week. Stack them with Cousins, and this is a stack, but high upside stack. I opted to save money at wide receiver with Adam Thielen, Robby Anderson, and Tedd Ginn, who are all extremely cheap, but have been playing extremely well recently. That allowed me to spend up at running back with David Johnson and LeSean McCoy, who are two of the most consistent, and best, running backs in the NFL this season. I also used the Vikings defense, who get a great matchup and are one of the best defenses in the NFL.
A Jets stack comes with a ton of risk, but they are extremely cheap, and get an elite matchup against the 49ers defense. They have looked awful this season, and the Jets stack has loads of upside. I added Jordan Howard, who should be in for another huge workload this week, and gets a solid matchup against the Lions. Jamison Crowder is a consistent player, but he also comes with good upside, and he has a moderate price tag. Sammy Watkins is slightly cheaper, and he looks healthy for Buffalo. He saw nine targets last week, and he’s a high upside option this week. Mike Evans isn’t a cheap option, but he’s seeing a ton of targets on a weekly basis, and he gets a good matchup against the Saints. Ladarius Green’s role in the Pittsburgh offense is growing, but he still comes with a low price tag. That allowed me to get the Vikings defense, who come with tremendous upside for a defense.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters. As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience. To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. If you have any questions whatsoever about how to use the optimizer, or if it’s not working for you, e-mail me at email@example.com. I’ll do my best to get back to you right away. If you don’t have Excel 2010 or later, then shoot me an e-mail with constraints you want, and I’ll run it for you. Also, if you have any ideas for things you’d want to see included in future iterations of this, then I’d also love to hear about them! Thanks, and have fun!!
NOTES: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include. For instance, I would personally remove Ertz and Crowell before running the optimizer again.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||FanDraf||Yahoo||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp FanDraf Yahoo Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $7,800 $20 16.9 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $5,000 $16 21.6 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $5,600 $13 22.2 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $5,200 $12 27.0 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $6,700 $19 24.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $5,500 $13 26.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $5,900 $16 31.9 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $4,600 $10 27.2 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|