Week 13 DFS Value Picks December 6, 2015  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

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One of the best ways to separate yourself from the crowd in DFS is to be able to find players that are priced below where they should be for their potential output. Sometimes this is easy (e.g. when a starting RB is injured after prices are released and their low-priced backup all of a sudden is in line for a lot more work), sometimes it isn’t and requires a lot more research and – as is often the case – luck. However, as they say, preparation begets luck. Below, you’ll see six tables, each covering value plays from a different daily fantasy website. Picks are provided for DraftDay, DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyAces, FantasyDraft and FantasyHub.

There are three picks for each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE). You will see one cash pick, one tournament pick, and one high risk/high reward pick that should usually only be used in GPPs with thousands of players (such as the Million Dollar contests on FD and DK). The high risk/high reward pick will be listed as Hail Mary. The prices for each pick are capped at $2,000 above the minimum value for sites with a $50,000 salary cap and $4,000 for sites with a $100,000, though there are a few exceptions if pricing really limits the number of players available.  So, for instance, you won’t see a DraftKings QB listed for more than $7,000 because the minimum price for a QB on DK is $5,000 and the salary cap is $50,000. You get the idea. You’ll also see the following columns:

Game Type: Is this a CASH (50/50, head-to-head), GPP (tournament), or Hail Mary (high risk/high reward for huge tournaments).

% of Total $: This tells you what percentage of your salary cap is being used up by using this player.

50/50 Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in 50/50 games.

GPP Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs).

Note: I generally aim for more than what is needed to actually cash. For example, in 2014 you needed an average of 111.21 FP and 121.85 FP to cash in 50/50s and GPPs on FanDuel, respectively. This equates to multiples of 1.85 and 2.03, though in the tables below the numbers I have listed assume FanDuel multiples of 2 for 50/50s and 2.5 for GPPs. If you can hit the multiples below, you’ll have a better chance of actually cashing. It’s obviously not a guarantee that you’ll cash – sometimes you can win a GPP on DraftKings with 180 FP, other times it takes 303! – but on average, hitting these numbers will give you a baseline for your expectations. Remember: Always aim for more. These picks should help act as a starting point in your research for low-priced, high-upside players. Remember, these picks have been made well ahead of time. Anything can happen between now and Sunday.

Before going further, I’ve compiled a small table showing what you would have needed to cash in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and the FanDuel Sunday Million through the first twelve weeks of the season. You’ll see the average needed to win as well as the equivalent multiple.

DFS Winning Scores——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Quick Week 13 Notes

There is a ton of value this week, especially at TE if you’re willing to roll the dice. Kyle Rudolph has been solid two weeks in a row (the Vikings remembered that he is actually on their team) and gets a fantastic matchup against a Seahawks defense that is a shell of its former self and cannot defend the TE position. Scott Chandler takes over the TE role for the Patriots and should offer short term reprieve for both season long and DFS lineups. He is a big body and, frankly, one of the only healthy receiving options Brady has at the moment. The other, deeper play, on my radar this week is Vance McDonald. The Niners’ new TE threat has become a favorite of Gabbert’s since Vernon Davis was traded away. He makes a decent tournament option this week.

At QB, it’s hard not to like Ryan Tannehill again this week against a pathetic Ravens pass defense. They can’t stop any QB that gets in their way and should prove fodder for the Dolphins this week. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Alex Smith both make solid cash game plays this week. The matchups against the Giants and the Raiders are both excellent. The Fitzmagic should be abundant Sunday. The other low-priced QB I like this week is Matt Hasselbeck in a Sunday night showdown against the porous Steelers passing D. He’s scored at least 15 FP (DK) in every game he’s played this season and showed his upside last week with a 300+ yard game against the Bucs.

If Danny Amendola plays, he becomes a near must start for me this week. With Edelman, Gronk and Lewis on the shelf, Amendola is the defacto #1 receiving option for the Pats. If he plays, I’d be shocked to see fewer than 10-12 targets in a great matchup against the Eagles. DeSean Jackson, Martavis Bryant, Donte Moncrief and Brandon LaFell all offer great upside this week.

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So, let’s take a quick look at how we did in week 12.

 

Week 12 Recap

Well, despite the fact that injuries once again reared their ugly heads, the picks were able to withstand them and return a fairly high average multiple. Picks for five of the six sites were above their averages for the entire season. Let’s start with what went wrong.

Chris Johnson. Well, is there much you can do when a guy breaks his leg? No, but let’s be honest; he was not performing well before he got hurt. In what should have been a solid performance, the Niners were able to shut down CJ2k the second time around. Now he’s on IR and can only return if the Cardinals reach the championship game.

Brian Hoyer and Josh McCown were just OK. After two early TDs against the Saints, Hoyer and the Texans settled down and were fairly limited offensively for the rest of the game. With the defense playing well, they didn’t need to do too much, limiting Hoyer’s upside. McCown also started well, but got injured toward the end of the game. Austin Davis led the Browns to a late TD….I only wish McCown would have had the chance to get those late points and make what was a mediocre fantasy day into a great one.

Brian Hartline was one of my favorite picks last week, and he came through once again for the Browns and fantasy owners who had the gumption to start him. He has been – surprisingly – one of the most targeted wide receivers over the past three weeks. As long as Hawkins remains out, which should be for a while, then he will continue to see a lot of attention from whichever QB the Browns are able to put on the field. He has good hands and will not destroy your lineups…though I’ll be avoiding him this week.

Alfred Blue and Javorius Allen both came through, though Blue gave me a little more worry than expected. The Texans gave carries to Polk and Grimes more carries than expected, but fortunately Blue found the end zone. Allen was the work horse for the Ravens and should continue to be…He’s not a bad play against the Dolphins again this week.

Best Week 12 Picks: Stevie Johnson, Brian Hartline, Javorius Allen, Alfred Blue, Marcus Mariota, Spencer Ware

Worst Week 12 Picks: Chris Johnson, Brian Hoyer, Josh McCown, Crockett Gillmore

Week 12 Results

Week 12 Results

Now that that’s all out of the way….onto the DFS value picks for Week 13!

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If you have any questions, please leave a message down below or hit me up on Twitter @ianrgold.

Note: I have asterisks next to guys with iffy injury statuses and those whose value depends on the injury status of another player. If the player ends up not playing or his value ends up diminished due to the status of another player (For example, I had Dwayne Harris listed as a play in Week 6, but his value was predicated upon Odell Beckham not playing.), I’ll either try to replace them (if time permits) or I’ll exclude them from the results.

 

DraftDay – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Ryan TannehillMIABALQBCASH/GPP$13,90013.9%20.927.8
Jay CutlerCHISFQBGPP$13,40013.4%20.126.8
Brock OsweilerDENSDQBHail Mary$12,30012.3%18.524.6
Javorius AllenBALMIARBCASH$9,8009.8%14.719.6
Darren SprolesPHINERBGPP$7,1507.2%10.714.3
David JohnsonAZSTLRBHail Mary$8,5508.6%12.817.1
Danny AmendolaNEPHIWRGPP$9,4009.4%14.118.8
DeSean JacksonWASDALWRGPP$9,0009.0%13.518.0
Brian HartlineCLECINWRGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Kyle RudolphMINSEATECASH$7,0007.0%10.514.0
Scott ChandlerNEPHITEGPP$7,9007.9%11.915.8
Vance McDonaldSFCHITEHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Ryan TannehillMIABALQBCASH$5,30010.6%15.921.2
Marcus MariotaTENJAXQBCASH/GPP$5,50011.0%16.522.0
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJNYGQBCASH/GPP$5,20010.4%15.620.8
C.J. AndersonDENSDRBCASH/GPP$3,5007.0%10.514.0
David JohnsonAZSTLRBGPP$3,4006.8%10.213.6
Matt JonesWASDALRBHail Mary$3,8007.6%11.415.2
Brandon LaFellNEPHIWRCASH/GPP$4,8009.6%14.419.2
Danny AmendolaNEPHIWRCASH$4,7009.4%14.118.8
Doug BaldwinSEAMINWRGPP$3,8007.6%11.415.2
Kyle RudolphMINSEATECASH/GPP$3,7007.4%11.114.8
Scott ChandlerNEPHITECASH/GPP$2,5005.0%7.510.0
Vance McDonaldSFCHITEGPP$3,0006.0%9.012.0

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Alex SmithKCOAKQBCASH$6,60011.0%13.216.5
Kirk CousinsWASDALQBCASH/GPP$6,60011.0%13.216.5
Matt HasselbeckINDPITQBGPP$6,50010.8%13.016.3
N/AN/AN/ARBHail MaryN/AN/AN/AN/A
Giovani BernardCINCLERBGPP$6,10010.2%12.215.3
David JohnsonAZSTLRBHail Mary$5,9009.8%11.814.8
Jeremy MaclinKCOAKWRGPP$6,50010.8%13.016.3
DeSean JacksonWASDALWRGPP$6,50010.8%13.016.3
Donte MoncriefINDPITWRHail Mary$6,40010.7%12.816.0
Kyle RudolphMINSEATECASH$5,1008.5%10.212.8
Scott ChandlerNEPHITEGPP$5,3008.8%10.613.3
Vance McDonaldSFCHITEHail Mary$4,9008.2%9.812.3

 

FantasyAces – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJNYGQBCASH/GPP$6,00012.0%18.024.0
Alex SmithKCOAKQBCASH$5,80011.6%17.423.2
Matt HasselbeckINDPITQBGPP$5,60011.2%16.822.4
Jonathan StewartCARNORBCASH$4,9009.8%14.719.6
DeAngelo WilliamsPITINDRBCASH/GPP$4,9009.8%14.719.6
C.J. AndersonDENSDRBGPP$4,8009.6%14.419.2
Martavis BryantPITINDWRGPP$4,8009.6%14.419.2
Michael CrabtreeOAKKCWRGPP$4,7509.5%14.319.0
DeSean JacksonWASDALWRGPP$4,6009.2%13.818.4
Jacob TammeATLTBTEGPP$4,1508.3%12.516.6
Kyle RudolphMINSEATEGPP$4,2508.5%12.817.0
Vance McDonaldSFCHITEHail Mary$3,8007.6%11.415.2

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOPPPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Ryan TannehillMIABALQBCASH$10,50010.5%15.821.0
Marcus MariotaTENJAXQBCASH/GPP$10,90010.9%16.421.8
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJNYGQBGPP$10,20010.2%15.320.4
C.J. AndersonDENSDRBCASH/GPP$6,9006.9%10.413.8
Jonathan StewartCARNORBCASH$10,00010.0%15.020.0
David JohnsonAZSTLRBGPP$6,7006.7%10.113.4
Danny AmendolaNEPHIWRGPP$9,2009.2%13.818.4
Donte MoncriefINDPITWRGPP$9,1009.1%13.718.2
Brian HartlineCLECINWRHail Mary$6,6006.6%9.913.2
Kyle RudolphMINSEATECASH/GPP$7,3007.3%11.014.6
Scott ChandlerNEPHITECASH/GPP$5,0005.0%7.510.0
Vance McDonaldSFCHITEGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0

 

FantasyHub – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Ryan TannehillMIABALQBCASH/GPP$5,20010.4%15.618.2
Marcus MariotaTENJAXQBGPP$5,30010.6%15.918.6
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJNYGQBCASH/GPP$5,00010.0%15.017.5
C.J. AndersonDENSDRBCASH/GPP$3,4006.8%10.211.9
Darren SprolesPHINERBGPP$3,2006.4%9.611.2
David JohnsonAZSTLRBHail Mary$3,2006.4%9.611.2
Brandon LaFellNEPHIWRCASH/GPP$4,6009.2%13.816.1
Danny AmendolaNEPHIWRCASH/GPP$4,5009.0%13.515.8
DeSean JacksonWASDALWRGPP$5,00010.0%15.017.5
Kyle RudolphMINSEATECASH/GPP$3,6007.2%10.812.6
Scott ChandlerNEPHITEGPP/GPP$3,0006.0%9.010.5
Vance McDonaldSFCHITEGPP$3,0006.0%9.010.5

 

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