Week 12 DFS Value Picks November 27, 2015  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

Check out our NFL DFS Cheat Sheet!

 

One of the best ways to separate yourself from the crowd in DFS is to be able to find players that are priced below where they should be for their potential output. Sometimes this is easy (e.g. when a starting RB is injured after prices are released and their low-priced backup all of a sudden is in line for a lot more work), sometimes it isn’t and requires a lot more research and – as is often the case – luck. However, as they say, preparation begets luck. Below, you’ll see six tables, each covering value plays from a different daily fantasy website. Picks are provided for DraftDay, DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyAces, FantasyDraft and FantasyHub.

There are three picks for each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE). You will see one cash pick, one tournament pick, and one high risk/high reward pick that should usually only be used in GPPs with thousands of players (such as the Million Dollar contests on FD and DK). The high risk/high reward pick will be listed as Hail Mary. The prices for each pick are capped at $2,000 above the minimum value for sites with a $50,000 salary cap and $4,000 for sites with a $100,000, though there are a few exceptions if pricing really limits the number of players available.  So, for instance, you won’t see a DraftKings QB listed for more than $7,000 because the minimum price for a QB on DK is $5,000 and the salary cap is $50,000. You get the idea. You’ll also see the following columns:

Game Type: Is this a CASH (50/50, head-to-head), GPP (tournament), or Hail Mary (high risk/high reward for huge tournaments).

% of Total $: This tells you what percentage of your salary cap is being used up by using this player.

50/50 Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in 50/50 games.

GPP Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs).

Note: I generally aim for more than what is needed to actually cash. For example, in 2014 you needed an average of 111.21 FP and 121.85 FP to cash in 50/50s and GPPs on FanDuel, respectively. This equates to multiples of 1.85 and 2.03, though in the tables below the numbers I have listed assume FanDuel multiples of 2 for 50/50s and 2.5 for GPPs. If you can hit the multiples below, you’ll have a better chance of actually cashing. It’s obviously not a guarantee that you’ll cash – sometimes you can win a GPP on DraftKings with 180 FP, other times it takes 303! – but on average, hitting these numbers will give you a baseline for your expectations. Remember: Always aim for more. These picks should help act as a starting point in your research for low-priced, high-upside players. Remember, these picks have been made well ahead of time. Anything can happen between now and Sunday.

Before going further, I’ve compiled a small table showing what you would have needed to cash in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and the FanDuel Sunday Million through the first eleven weeks of the season. You’ll see the average needed to win as well as the equivalent multiple.

DFS Winning Scores——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Quick Week 12 Notes

It’s a great week to buy low at QB and RB. Let’s start with my favorite play of the week (and many others’ as well), Brian Hoyer. New Orleans is, frankly, terrible on defense. While Rob Ryan got the blame for it, it was not just his fault (coaches are far too often to blame for the ongoings in the NFL). The team lacks talent and has had a lot of injuries to boot. Do you honestly think that dropping Ryan and having a week to prepare will be any help against Houston? Hoyer has a great receiving corps. Besides Hopkins, who is otherworldly, he has respectable veterans Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts to play catch with. On top of that, he has a reliable backfield (which I’ll get to), even without Foster. Hoyer will be in a lot of my lineups this week.

The other two QBs I’m high on this week as value plays are Josh McCown and Marcus Mariota, who both get matchups against bottom 5 defenses against QBs in the Ravens and Raiders, respectively. McCown torched Baltimore for 457 yards and 2 TDs (plus one on the ground) in their matchup earlier this season. While repeating that is not at all likely, 300 yards and 2 total TDs certainly is. Mariota gets Kendall Wright back this week, which adds a reliable receiving option to the already solid Delanie Walker. I do not like Marcus as much in cash games as I do Hoyer (who I like in all contests), I’d certainly going to throw the former Duck in a tournament lineup or two.

I already alluded to him, but I really like Alfred Blue this week against the Saints. He is underpriced across the industry and should perform well in a choice matchup. Actually, there is zero reason to pay up for RB this week (unless you really have to have AP for some reason). Guys like Blue, Chris Johnson, Javorius Allen, Spencer Ware (if C-West is out) and Thomas Rawls all offer excellent value. Of those I just mentioned, I’m highest on Blue, CJ2K and Allen. Those three will be solidifying my RB slots this week.

With Mike Evans set to line up against Vontae Davis, Vincent Jackson becomes a very solid play this week. Jameis Winston has really been turning it on as of late and a healthy V-Jax gives him another reliable weapon. I expect Jackson to be heavily targeted this week; I love the potential upside and will be throwing him into tournament lineups. Stevie Johnson, DeSean Jackson and Brian Hartline (yes, Brian Hartline). Hartline is especially intriguing to me as a deep tournament play. He’s had two solid, under-the-radar performances in a row and will get the start again with Andrew Hawkins dealing with a concussion.

At TE, there is value all around. On the sites where he is still cheap, Gary Barnidge is again a top play at the position. He destroyed the Ravens last time out and could easily do so again. Other TEs I like this week are Jordan Reed, Delanie Walker, Heath Miller, and Jacob Tamme.

 

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So, let’s take a quick look at how we did in week 11.

 

Week 11 Recap

Considering how low-scoring a week it was in daily fantasy (you only needed 119.36 FP and 103.7 FP to cash in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and FanDuel Sunday Million, respectively), last week’s picks ended up doing fairly well overall. Picks for DraftKings, FanDuel and FantasyDraft had relatively high average multiples, and picks for the other three were adequate, though there are definitely some negatives to point out. Let’s start with what went wrong.

TE was a mess this week. I was really hopeful for a decent week from Eric Ebron. He thanked me with a big fat 0. Yup, ZERO. Ouch. That kind of return usually only happens with an injury, like with my pick of Malcom Floyd a couple of weeks ago. I’m off of Ebron for the rest of the season; it looks like Theo Riddick is getting most of the short work, and Stafford is actually finding his receivers regularly. Hallelujah! Richard Rodgers was also a big let down for me this week, returning a paltry 3.7 or 2.2FP depending on the site.

I got a little too overzealous with Wes Welker last week; Perhaps I just have eyes for Molly. Whatever the reason, I should have stayed away. It’s not his fault really, but more the team he’s on. St. Louis is content to throw the ball about 2 times per game, apparently. Maybe they’ll change their tune after they lost to a hapless Ravens team on the road. Ouch. I learned my lesson.

There weren’t too many other glaring mistakes across the board (Charcandrick West was a let down, but that was due to injury…hey, these things happen), so let’s get to what went right, starting with Jameis Winston. The rookie has been up an upward trend and absolutely tore apart the Eagles last week, which is apparently becoming a trend for QBs in the 2nd half of the season (I hope you all started Stafford yesterday!).

Danny Amendola took over Edelman’s targets, as expected. He should have had a huge TD in addition to his big receiving game, but the refs inadvertently blew a whistle. Either way, he produced a huge game, catching 9 balls on 12 targets for 117 yards. It also could have been more, but he injured himself while standing, waiting to catch a punt. Hey…let’s just be thankful for what we got.

With Ryan Mathews out, Darren Sproles had himself a very solid game, especially on PPR sites, catching 3 balls and totaling 59 yards and a score. Thomas Rawls was even more incredible in relief of Marshawn Lynch. The top fantasy play of the week, Rawls made it into my write-up last week, but was unfortunately left mostly out of the picks as I wasn’t sure if Lynch would play or not. Hopefully some of you took advantage and came through with big days.

Best Week 11 Picks: Jameis Winston (DD, DK, FD, FA, FDr), Darren Sproles (DD, FD, FDr), Thomas Rawls (FD, In the write-up)

Worst Week 11 Picks: Eric Ebron (Every site), Richard Rodgers (DK, FA, FDr, FH), Wes Welker (Every site…it was a far-fetched pick)

Week 11 Value

Week 11 Value

Now that that’s all out of the way….onto the DFS value picks for Week 12!

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If you have any questions, please leave a message down below or hit me up on Twitter @ianrgold.

Note: I have asterisks next to guys with iffy injury statuses and those whose value depends on the injury status of another player. If the player ends up not playing or his value ends up diminished due to the status of another player (For example, I had Dwayne Harris listed as a play in Week 6, but his value was predicated upon Odell Beckham not playing.), I’ll either try to replace them (if time permits) or I’ll exclude them from the results.

 

DraftDay – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Brian HoyerHOUNOQBGPP$13,95014.0%20.927.9
Josh McCownCLEBALQBGPP$13,40013.4%20.126.8
Marcus MariotaTENOAKQBGPP$13,05013.1%19.626.1
Chris JohnsonAZSFRBCASH$8,4008.4%12.616.8
Alfred BlueHOUNORBGPP$8,6508.7%13.017.3
Javorius AllenBALCLERBGPP$8,7008.7%13.117.4
Stevie JohnsonSDJAXWRCASH$8,5008.5%12.817.0
DeSean JacksonWASNYGWRGPP$7,8007.8%11.715.6
Travis BenjaminCLEBALWRHail Mary$8,2008.2%12.316.4
Jimmy GrahamSEAPITTEHail Mary$9,3009.3%14.018.6
Jacob TammeATLINDTEGPP$7,9007.9%11.915.8
Heath MillerPITSEATEGPP$7,5507.6%11.315.1

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Brian HoyerHOUNOQBCASH/GPP$5,00010.0%15.020.0
Josh McCownCLEBALQBGPP$5,00010.0%15.020.0
Marcus MariotaTENOAKQBGPP$5,50011.0%16.522.0
Chris JohnsonAZSFRBCASH/GPP$4,6009.2%13.818.4
Alfred BlueHOUNORBGPP$4,5009.0%13.518.0
Javorius AllenBALCLERBCASH$4,6009.2%13.818.4
Stevie JohnsonSDJAXWRCASH$4,5009.0%13.518.0
Vincent JacksonTBINDWRGPP$4,7009.4%14.118.8
Doug BaldwinSEAPITWRHail Mary$3,8007.6%11.415.2
Crockett GillmoreBALCLETECASH$3,7007.4%11.114.8
Jacob TammeATLINDTEGPP$3,3006.6%9.913.2
Heath MillerPITSEATEHail Mary$3,1006.2%9.312.4

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Ryan TannehillMIANYJQBGPP$6,90011.5%13.817.3
Josh McCownCLEBALQBCASH/GPP$6,30010.5%12.615.8
Marcus MariotaTENOAKQBCASH/GPP$7,00011.7%14.017.5
Spencer Ware*KCBUFRBGPP$6,10010.2%12.215.3
Alfred BlueHOUNORBCASH/GPP$5,9009.8%11.814.8
Javorius AllenBALCLERBCASH/GPP$6,30010.5%12.615.8
Michael CrabtreeOAKTENWRCASH$6,50010.8%13.016.3
Vincent JacksonTBINDWRGPP$6,40010.7%12.816.0
DeSean JacksonWASNYGWRGPP$6,30010.5%12.615.8
Delanie WalkerTENOAKTEGPP$6,10010.2%12.215.3
Jordan ReedWASNYGTECASH/GPP$5,8009.7%11.614.5
Jacob TammeATLINDTEHail Mary$5,1008.5%10.212.8

 

FantasyAces – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Brian HoyerHOUNOQBCASH/GPP$5,70011.4%17.122.8
Josh McCownCLEBALQBCASH/GPP$5,40010.8%16.221.6
Marcus MariotaTENOAKQBGPP$6,20012.4%18.624.8
Chris JohnsonAZSFRBCASH/GPP$4,6509.3%14.018.6
Alfred BlueHOUNORBCASH/GPP$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Javorius AllenBALCLERBCASH/GPP$4,7509.5%14.319.0
Martavis BryantPITSEAWRGPP$4,9509.9%14.919.8
Vincent JacksonTBINDWRGPP$4,6009.2%13.818.4
Brian HartlineCLEBALWRHail Mary$3,8507.7%11.615.4
Gary BarnidgeCLEBALTECASH/GPP$4,9009.8%14.719.6
Jordan ReedWASNYGTECASH/GPP$4,7009.4%14.118.8
Delanie WalkerTENOAKTEGPP$4,6009.2%13.818.4

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOPPPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Brian HoyerHOUNOQBCASH/GPP$10,00010.0%15.020.0
Josh McCownCLEBALQBGPP$10,00010.0%15.020.0
Marcus MariotaTENOAKQBGPP$10,90010.9%16.421.8
Chris JohnsonAZSFRBCASH/GPP$9,1009.1%13.718.2
Alfred BlueHOUNORBGPP$8,8008.8%13.217.6
Javorius AllenBALCLERBHail Mary$9,1009.1%13.718.2
Stevie JohnsonSDJAXWRCASH$8,8008.8%13.217.6
Vincent JacksonTBINDWRGPP$9,2009.2%13.818.4
Brian HartlineCLEBALWRHail Mary$6,7006.7%10.113.4
Gary BarnidgeCLEBALTECASH/GPP$9,0009.0%13.518.0
Jordan ReedWASNYGTEGPP$9,7009.7%14.619.4
Jacob TammeATLINDTEHail Mary$6,4006.4%9.612.8

 

FantasyHub – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Brian HoyerHOUNOQBCASH/GPP$5,00010.0%15.017.5
Josh McCownCLEBALQBGPP$5,00010.0%15.017.5
Marcus MariotaTENOAKQBGPP$5,40010.8%16.218.9
Chris JohnsonAZSFRBCASH/GPP$4,5009.0%13.515.8
Alfred BlueHOUNORBCASH/GPP$4,3008.6%12.915.1
Javorius AllenBALCLERBGPP$4,5009.0%13.515.8
Stevie JohnsonSDJAXWRCASH$4,4008.8%13.215.4
Vincent JacksonTBINDWRGPP$4,6009.2%13.816.1
DeSean JacksonWASNYGWRGPP$4,9009.8%14.717.2
Gary BarnidgeCLEBALTECASH/GPP$4,6009.2%13.816.1
Jordan ReedWASNYGTEGPP$4,9009.8%14.717.2
Crockett GillmoreBALCLETEGPP$3,6007.2%10.812.6

 

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