Week 11 DFS Value Picks November 21, 2015  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

Check out our NFL DFS Cheat Sheet!

 

One of the best ways to separate yourself from the crowd in DFS is to be able to find players that are priced below where they should be for their potential output. Sometimes this is easy (e.g. when a starting RB is injured after prices are released and their low-priced backup all of a sudden is in line for a lot more work), sometimes it isn’t and requires a lot more research and – as is often the case – luck. However, as they say, preparation begets luck. Below, you’ll see six tables, each covering value plays from a different daily fantasy website. Picks are provided for DraftDay, DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyAces, FantasyDraft and FantasyHub.

There are three picks for each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE). You will see one cash pick, one tournament pick, and one high risk/high reward pick that should usually only be used in GPPs with thousands of players (such as the Million Dollar contests on FD and DK). The high risk/high reward pick will be listed as Hail Mary. The prices for each pick are capped at $2,000 above the minimum value for sites with a $50,000 salary cap and $4,000 for sites with a $100,000, though there are a few exceptions if pricing really limits the number of players available.  So, for instance, you won’t see a DraftKings QB listed for more than $7,000 because the minimum price for a QB on DK is $5,000 and the salary cap is $50,000. You get the idea. You’ll also see the following columns:

Game Type: Is this a CASH (50/50, head-to-head), GPP (tournament), or Hail Mary (high risk/high reward for huge tournaments).

% of Total $: This tells you what percentage of your salary cap is being used up by using this player.

50/50 Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in 50/50 games.

GPP Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs).

Note: I generally aim for more than what is needed to actually cash. For example, in 2014 you needed an average of 111.21 FP and 121.85 FP to cash in 50/50s and GPPs on FanDuel, respectively. This equates to multiples of 1.85 and 2.03, though in the tables below the numbers I have listed assume FanDuel multiples of 2 for 50/50s and 2.5 for GPPs. If you can hit the multiples below, you’ll have a better chance of actually cashing. It’s obviously not a guarantee that you’ll cash – sometimes you can win a GPP on DraftKings with 180 FP, other times it takes 303! – but on average, hitting these numbers will give you a baseline for your expectations. Remember: Always aim for more. These picks should help act as a starting point in your research for low-priced, high-upside players. Remember, these picks have been made well ahead of time. Anything can happen between now and Sunday.

Before going further, I’ve compiled a small table showing what you would have needed to cash in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and the FanDuel Sunday Million through the first ten weeks of the season. You’ll see the average needed to win as well as the equivalent multiple.

DFS Winning Scores——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Quick Week 11 Notes

Repeat after me: Charcandrick West. He’s had three monster games in a row, including one against the vaunted Denver defense (which, admittedly, was missing two of its best players). Kansas City is all of a sudden playing like they want to make the playoffs; even Andy Reid’s play calling can’t mess up a win when the Chiefs are winning by such a large margin! West gets a choice matchup this week against San Diego, whose defense is giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. While he’s likely to be highly owned, it may be hard to leave him off of your lineups.

There’s a new PPR king in town and his name is Danny Amendola. With Julian Edelman likely done for the regular season with a broken foot, the former Ram has a chance to break out into what could be a legitimate WR2. He will certainly get the opportunity to do so as Brady loves to dink and dunk. He already has Brady’s trust, which is of the utmost importance. He’s cheap across the board and I cannot fathom a reason to not roster him in DFS this week on full PPR sites. You can get a pass on 0.5 PPR sites, but I have a feeling he’ll be hitting value on those sites as well, given that his prices are so low. Brandon LaFell is certainly worth a look as well, but I like Danny much

So, call me crazy, but I’m rolling with Wes Welker as a deep tournament play this week. He is minimum salary across the board, got 6 targets in very limited action last week, and is playing one of the worst pass defenses in all of football. I see no reason why, with an extra week studying the playbook, he won’t get more involved in the offense this week. St. Louis desperately needs someone else besides Gurley and Austin to step up, and Welker could be is. I was as skeptical as anyone last week when he joined, but I see potential this week, especially on full PPR sites.

Matt Stafford has a dream matchup at home against an Oakland team that is giving up nearly 300 yards per game (It still would be 300 yards, but they decided to let AP gouge them last week instead of Bridgewater). I think 300 yards and 2 TDs is his floor this week. Pair him with Calvin and your DFS lineups should be off to a great start.

If Lynch ends up sitting this week out — he’s questionable — then feel free to load Thomas Rawls into your lineups. He performed admirably in Lynch’s absence before and should have a ton of garbage time running to do as Seattle should easily handle the Niners. I only listed him on one site below, but I’d start him on pretty much any site if he gets the start.

 

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So, let’s take a quick look at how we did in week 10.

 

Week 10 Recap

All hail King Kirk! The New Orleans defense — or lack thereof — did not fail to disappoint this week. Kirk Cousins took advantage and threw for over 300 yards and four TDs. It could have been even more had Washington’s defense not returned an interception for a TD in the 4th, bolstering what would be a huge win. DFS, more than season long, is all about the matchups, especially when you are looking for value. Cousins single-handedly helped me place in a few leagues in which I had no business cashing…Hopefully he put you over the top, too.

The other QB I recommended, Blake Bortles, did not fare as well. He was OK, but it was pretty tough to see him fail to throw for more than 200 yards against a pathetic Baltimore passing D. Fortunately he was able to add a couple of scores and some yards on the ground, but he definitely left me wanting more. On the other side of the field, recommended play Chris Givens was able to pull in a TD, helping him to easily hit value. He was a very risky play, but fortunately worked out.

This is about where the good ends, however. There is no hiding the fact that this was — by far — my worst week of the season. Average multiples for five of six sites were near their lowest of the season, while picks for FanDuel were somehow adequate. Where to begin? Let’s start with TE, where it was horrific across the board. Besides picking Jordan Reed  on the couple of sites where he was still a value, my picks of Ben Watson, Kyle Rudolph (ugh)and Julius Thomas were nothing short of pathetic when all was said and done. Washington controlled the game from the onset and Brees only ended up with 209 passing yards, only 19 of which went to Watson. Rudolph and Thomas combined for a 3/30 line. Simply awful.

This is the second week in a row in which an injury has really affected a pick. Last week it was Malcom Floyd, this week it was Landry Jones. Jones exited in the first quarter after throwing only 4 passes…Ouch. I’ll just have to suck up the 1 FP performance. This is the NFL; injuries happen. As much as we know skill plays in picking DFS rosters, things like injuries can derail a lineup quickly. This is why you don’t throw all of your pigskins in one basket…or something.

Another pick that went wrong, for a totally different reason, was Stefon Diggs. He fortunately grabbed a late 37 yard pass, but was otherwise nonexistent as the day belonged to AP, who ran roughshod over the Raiders this week, capping off the Vikings’ win with a late 80 yard rushing TD. Other misguided picks included Duke Johnson, Pierre Garcon, and Shane Vereen.

Let’s take a quick look at some picks that hit and missed…

Best Week 10 Picks: Kirk Cousins (Every site), Matt Jones (DD, FD, FA), Jordan Reed (FD, FDr, FH), Chris Givens (FA, FDr, FH)

Worst Week 10 Picks: Pierre Garcon (DK, FD, FH), Landry Jones (DD, DK, FD, FA), Kyle Rudolph (DD, DK, FA, FDr, FH)

Week 10 Results

Week 10 Results

Now that that’s all out of the way….onto the DFS value picks for Week 11!

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If you have any questions, please leave a message down below or hit me up on Twitter @ianrgold.

Note: I have asterisks next to guys with iffy injury statuses and those whose value depends on the injury status of another player. If the player ends up not playing or his value ends up diminished due to the status of another player (For example, I had Dwayne Harris listed as a play in Week 6, but his value was predicated upon Odell Beckham not playing.), I’ll either try to replace them (if time permits) or I’ll exclude them from the results.

 

DraftDay – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Jameis WinstonTBPHIQBCASH$13,45013.5%20.226.9
Mark SanchezPHITBQBGPP$11,10011.1%16.722.2
Case KeenumSTLBALQBHail Mary$10,00010.0%15.020.0
Theo RiddickDETOAKRBGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Karlos WilliamsBUFNERBGPP$8,9008.9%13.417.8
Darren SprolesPHITBRBHail Mary$6,3506.4%9.512.7
Danny AmendolaNEBUFWRGPP$9,9009.9%14.919.8
Jeremy MaclinKCSDWRGPP$9,7009.7%14.619.4
Wes WelkerSTLBALWRHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Eric EbronDETOAKTEGPP$6,6006.6%9.913.2
Jason WittenDALMIATEGPP$9,2009.2%13.818.4
Crockett GillmoreBALSTLTEHail Mary$8,7008.7%13.117.4

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Tyrod TaylorBUFNEQBCASH$5,20010.4%15.620.8
Matthew StaffordDETOAKQBCASH/GPP$5,40010.8%16.221.6
Jameis WinstonTBPHIQBCASH/GPP$5,00010.0%15.020.0
Charcandrick WestKCSDRBCASH/GPP$4,5009.0%13.518.0
Darren McFaddenDALMIARBGPP$5,00010.0%15.020.0
Jonathan StewartCARWASRBCASH$4,4008.8%13.217.6
Danny AmendolaNEBUFWRCASH/GPP$4,0008.0%12.016.0
Wes WelkerSTLBALWRHail Mary$3,0006.0%9.012.0
Brandon LaFellNEBUFWRGPP$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Eric EbronDETOAKTECASH$3,3006.6%9.913.2
Crockett GilmoreBALSTLTEGPP$3,3006.6%9.913.2
Richard RodgersGBMINTEGPP$3,1006.2%9.312.4

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Jameis WinstonTBPHIQBCASH/GPP$6,80011.3%13.617.0
Alex SmithKCSDQBCASH$6,20010.3%12.415.5
Mark SanchezPHITBQBHail Mary$6,40010.7%12.816.0
Thomas Rawls*SEASFRBGPP$5,6009.3%11.214.0
Darren SprolesPHIBUFRBHail Mary$5,4009.0%10.813.5
Karlos WilliamsBUFNERBGPP$5,7009.5%11.414.3
Danny AmendolaNEBUFWRGPP$6,10010.2%12.215.3
Michael CrabtreeOAKDETWRCASH$6,50010.8%13.016.3
Wes WelkerSTLBALWRHail Mary$5,2008.7%10.413.0
Jordan ReedWASCARTEGPP$5,8009.7%11.614.5
Jason WittenDALMIATEGPP$5,5009.2%11.013.8
Eric EbronDETOAKTEGPP$5,4009.0%10.813.5

 

FantasyAces – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Alex SmithKCSDQBCASH$5,65011.3%17.022.6
Matt StaffordDETOAKQBGPP$6,30012.6%18.925.2
Jameis WinstonTBPHIQBGPP$5,60011.2%16.822.4
Charcandrick WestKCSDRBCASH/GPP$4,9509.9%14.919.8
Jonathan StewartCARWASRBCASH$4,7009.4%14.118.8
Frank GoreINDATLRBGPP$4,5509.1%13.718.2
Michael CrabtreeOAKDETWRCASH/GPP$4,8009.6%14.419.2
Jordan MatthewsPHITBWRGPP$4,5009.0%13.518.0
Wes WelkerSTLBALWRHail Mary$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Eric EbronDETOAKTEGPP$4,1508.3%12.516.6
Crockett GillmoreBALSTLTEGPP$4,2008.4%12.616.8
Richard RodgersGBMINTEHail Mary$4,2508.5%12.817.0

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Derek CarrOAKDETQBCASH/GPP$6,20012.4%18.621.7
Matt StaffordDETOAKQBGPP$5,30010.6%15.918.6
Alex SmithKCSDQBCASH$5,00010.0%15.017.5
Jonathan StewartCARWASRBCASH$4,2008.4%12.614.7
Charcandrick WestKCSDRBCASH/GPP$4,4008.8%13.215.4
Darren McFaddenDALMIARBGPP$4,8009.6%14.416.8
Danny AmendolaNEBUFWRCASH/GPP$3,9007.8%11.713.7
Brandon LaFellNEBUFWRGPP$4,1008.2%12.314.4
Wes WelkerSTLBALWRHail Mary$3,0006.0%9.010.5
Eric EbronDETOAKTEGPP$3,3006.6%9.911.6
Crockett GilmoreBALSTLTEGPP$3,2006.4%9.611.2
Richard RodgersGBMINTEHail Mary$3,0006.0%9.010.5

 

FantasyHub – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Derek CarrOAKDETQBCASH/GPP$6,20012.4%18.621.7
Matt StaffordDETOAKQBGPP$5,30010.6%15.918.6
Alex SmithKCSDQBCASH$5,00010.0%15.017.5
Jonathan StewartCARWASRBCASH$4,2008.4%12.614.7
Charcandrick WestKCSDRBCASH/GPP$4,4008.8%13.215.4
Darren McFaddenDALMIARBGPP$4,8009.6%14.416.8
Danny AmendolaNEBUFWRCASH/GPP$3,9007.8%11.713.7
Brandon LaFellNEBUFWRGPP$4,1008.2%12.314.4
Wes WelkerSTLBALWRHail Mary$3,0006.0%9.010.5
Eric EbronDETOAKTEGPP$3,3006.6%9.911.6
Crockett GilmoreBALSTLTEGPP$3,2006.4%9.611.2
Richard RodgersGBMINTEHail Mary$3,0006.0%9.010.5

 

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