Week 11 DFS Cheat Sheet: FanDuel and DraftKings (UPDATED)
November 20, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 11 of the 2016 The Fake Football FanDuel and DraftKings DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Ian Goldsmith and Chet Gresham, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel and Draftkings, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
PLUS! Ian Goldsmith’s DFS Optimizer will be added to the sheets this season! It will go LIVE every Friday!
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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Cleveland/Pittsburgh, New York Giants/Chicago, and Washington/Packers all had their Vegas totals dropped due to windy weather. The Steelers/Browns game continues to have the highest winds, but the Giants/Bears game has west wind 22 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. I would downgrade their passing game. The Washington/Green Bay game is later so the wind will die down a bit, but will likely be stronger at the start of the game and could cause some trouble. I’m not as worried about this game with a forecast of mostly clear, with a low around 30. Breezy, with a west wind 14 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph.
There aren’t many important updates this morning. The split at running back for Seattle is still not easy to decipher, but C.J. Prosise looks likely to go into this game as the starter, but Thomas Rawls could take over ore work if he’s playing better. Prosise should still be fine with receptions either way though.
Both Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan are out this week against the 49ers. That will put a lot of players in play, like Danny Amendola and Malcolm Mitchell, but Martellus Bennett and Julian Edelman should see a boost and become extremely safe plays in a great matchup.
Todd Gurley popped up on the injury report with a thigh injury. This is the same thigh that was bothering him last week, so I expect he’ll be able to go and gets a good enough matchup to play him as usual.
Dez Bryant put in limited work on Friday due to a back problem. Beat reporters said he looked fine and should be able to go. Unless we hear differently, go ahead and play him as usual, especially with the Ravens Jimmy Smith doubtful.
Thomas Rawls isn’t listed on the injury report and will play. Reports have Rawls being eased back with C.J. Prosise getting more work. It does seem like the logical move, as Prosise looked good last week and Rawls has been injured off and on for a long while now.
DeSean Jackson is a game-time decision this week against the Packers. He hasn’t been doing much when playing, but he’s also had nagging injuries. Hopefully he’ll sit out, which would boost Washington’s other receivers in a good matchup. My favorite play is Jordan Reed after the Packers were torn apart by Delanie Walker last week.
Jeremy Maclin won’t play again this week with a groin injury. This will again open up target for Tyreek Hill, who caught 10-of-13 targets for 98 yards last week. I’ll be playing him at DraftKings this week due to their 1 point PPR scoring.
Larry Fitzgerald is no longer on the injury report. He gets a tough matchup, but he’ll once again be the top target for Carson Palmer this week.
Miami will be short a couple offensive linemen this week, with both Mike Pouncey and Branden Albert are out. This is bad news, especially against a strong Rams front four. Jay Ajayi should be downgraded and the Rams D/ST upgraded.
Lamar Miller was limited in practice this week, but will be a full go against the Raiders in Mexico City Monday night. He has seen his role reduced a bit lately. Alfred Blue is out for this game, so Akeem Hunt will be the backup and should get a decent amount of work.
Both Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz got full practices in on Friday and will start against the Seahawks. It’s a tough matchup, but both have been seeing the bulk of targets and should continue to be redraft plays.
Sample FanDuel Lineups
OK, if you read this regularly you know that I’m not usually a fan of rostering players on Thursdays, thus I usually don’t bother putting a lineup with them on here. However, this Thursday’s game should be guaranteed fireworks with the Saints taking on the Panthers in what I think is a must-win game for Carolina. While Brees is always in play, I’m stacking the Panthers here by including Jonathan Stewart and Kelvin Benjamin. I would have added Newton, but at $8,500 I don’t think he offers the multiple potential that, say, Russell Wilson does, who is included in the lineup here. He’s only $7,400 and has had two 26+ FP games in a row against Buffalo and New England. Philly is a tough D, but playing in Seattle will be too much for them this week. For the price, Wilson is my favorite cash play this week, though I also love Cousins, TyGod, and Blake Bortles, who always seems to come through in the 4th quarter.
Along with J-Stew, I’ve rostered LeGarrette Blount who gets the dream matchup against San Francisco. Blount has, amazingly, scored in every game but one this season (the game in which the Patriots, behind their 3rd string rookie QB, were shut out against Buffalo). Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson slot in alongside Benjamin at WR. Not that either of them need explanation, but the Steelers should score 30 points with their eyes close, and Green Bay will be in what should be a shootout with Washington. I’m using Martellus Bennett across the board this week, though I would be perfectly happy to use Eric Ebron, Julius Thomas, or Cameron Brate for slightly higher salaries. Bennett certainly has the highest upside this week if Gronk is out. Wil Lutz slots in at K, and the Dolphins fill in at DST. They are playing fantastic fantasy D, having scored 13 and 17 the past two weeks. This week they get to face off against the Rams and rookie Jared Goff, who makes his first start. They should be teeing off early. While I prefer KC and Seattle if I can afford them, the Dolphins are my favorite cheap play.
This lineup is all about targets and touches. Targets and touches. Targets and touches! Wilson, Bennett, and Nelson slot into this lineup as well. At RB, I’m paying up big for DeMarco Murray and David Johnson. Murray gets an outstanding matchup against the Colts this week. DJ’s matchup isn’t great, but the Vikings have proven very beatable by RBs in the past few games. Rookie Rob Kelley just ran for a very solid 97 yards against them in Washington’s win last week. To think DJ can’t better that….well, come on now. If you’d rather have Zeke, you can pay down at DST and K to fill him in.
Diggs and Crowder are absolute target monsters. Crowder did have a slightly down week last week in the target department, but he was facing Minny, so I’ll give me a pass (he did score, after all). Diggs has averaged an insane 14 targets over the past three weeks, catching 34 of them! Yowzas. Arizona is not the best matchup, but given that Bradford is force-feeding his top WR, I’ll still take him in a cash game for under $7K. At K I’ve slotted in Prater, who gets a nice matchup at home against the Jags in the dome. At D, my favorite cash play is the Chiefs. Here are their scores for the past 5 games: 10, 11, 11, 11, 13. Consistency, consistency, consistency. Oh yeah…Justin Houston might be back this week as well. Happy days!
Again, I’ll not rehash the guys I’ve already covered, so there are only two extra guys to discuss here: Kirk Cousins and Tyreek Hill. Cousins is my favorite GPP play of the week against a terrible Green Bay secondary, who just got torched by the Titans last week. Cousins has scored 18.32 FP in all but two games this year, and should have no trouble getting into the 20s this week against the Pack. With the game set at 50.5 as I write this, Vegas expects fireworks, too.
I’ve gone a bit chalkier with my RB picks for the cash lineup by using Le’Veon Bell and CJ Prosise. While Bell is extremely expensive, the matchup is so good that it is hard to imagine a scenario where he can’t hit 2X value this week. I don’t think he’s going to be winning you GPPs given his cost, but a solid 20-25 FP should well be in hand, solidifying your cash lineup. Prosise is, simply, way too cheap. We don’t know how many touches Rawls will get, but if Seattle builds up any kind of decent lead, it is hard to imagine Seattle turning to Rawls to drain the clock…much better to keep him healthy and roll out their new piece in Prosise, who has already proven his worth. $4,900 is pretty crazy given his potential. Philly is a solid defense, but Prosise can do so much through the passing game that he can get his points even if he’s unable to run up the middle.
I’ve warmed to Bortles throughout the week. I think he’s a terrible QB in real life, but he’s a fantasy miracle. The Jags are always behind, so Bortles has to consistently chuck the ball in the second half. He gets a very beatable Lions DST this week, to boot. In tournaments, I’m happily considering stacking him with Allen Robinson, even given the potential matchup with Slay. In the GPP lineup, I’m moving away from Bell and going with McCoy and Blount. Blount is a solid cash play as well, but his upside is huge this week against the woeful Niners. The Bengals have been relatively tough on the run, but are susceptible to those backs that can catch the ball like McCoy. They’ve given up 25 receptions to RBs in the past 5 weeks.
I added a new lineup because of the potential problems with the wind in Cleveland. I moved away from AB, and moved to Allen Robinson in the dome. Other moves in this lineup fro the previous update were Bortles>Kaepernick and Prosise>Riddick.
Sample DraftKings Lineups
DraftKings Lineup Configurations
OK, obviously there is a ton of crossover here as I’m using many of the same players. Only one player is new in this lineup that wasn’t covered in the FanDuel blurbs above: Vernon Davis. Who knows why he’s having a resurgence, but he is. Davis has scored at least 13 FP in four straight games. He has become one of Cousins’ favorite weapons, even with Jordan Reed back in the mix. If DeSean Jackson is out again, I see no reason why he can’t easily hit value at only $2,800. The good thing about him being priced so low, is that even if he has a bad game, he 1) doesn’t ruin your lineup and 2) still affords you the extra salary room to roster more expensive players. I’m happy using a Vernon Davis/Martellus Bennett combo at TE/FLEX. At only $6,500 combined, they have legitimate 30+ FP upside.
Only two new names grace this lineup: Le’Veon Bell, who needs no explanation, and Golden Tate. Tate, who started out the season frustratingly slowly, has turned things around in a big way since busting out for over 30 FP in week 6. Since that time, he’s not fallen below 11 FP, and has averaged a robust 8/95/0.5TD line in his past four games. He gets a solid, but beatable, Jags secondary this week in what should be a relatively high scoring affair. Bell is Bell…no description needed.
The only player used here that I didn’t mention in the FanDuel lineups is Ladarius Green. Green was OK last week in his long-anticipated first game of the year for the Steelers. This week he gets to face off against the Browns who, amazingly, have passed the Lions and are now the worst team in the league against opposing TEs. It’s true! Why not use Green as a dart at his price and hope for a touchdown? They’ve given up more catches and yards to the position than any other team and are tied (with Detroit) for the most TDs given up. At near minimum salary, it’s tough to find better potential upside. Sure, he could fade away into nothingness, but this is fantasy….take an educated risk!
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters.
As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience.
To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. If you have any questions whatsoever about how to use the optimizer, or if it’s not working for you, e-mail me at email@example.com. I’ll do my best to get back to you right away. If you don’t have Excel 2010 or later, then shoot me an e-mail with constraints you want, and I’ll run it for you. Also, if you have any ideas for things you’d want to see included in future iterations of this, then I’d also love to hear about them! Thanks, and have fun!!
NOTE: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include. I, for one, am not a fan of the Vikings this weekend. I’d rather have the Dolphins or Giants any day of the week for cheaper. Remember to remove players you don’t want to consider!
If you have any questions at all, shoot me an e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org. Good luck this week!
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring. Note: This week’s odds will be up shortly.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||DK||FD||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp DK FD Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $4,000 $5,100 17 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $2,600 $4,300 22 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $2,900 $4,500 22 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $2,700 $4,500 27 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $3,400 $4,800 24 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $2,800 $4,300 26 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $3,000 $4,700 32 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $2,300 $4,200 27 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|