Week 10 Starts and Sits
November 13, 2015 | Chet
Double-digit weeks are here as we round into the home stretch of the 2015 fantasy football season. As the bye weeks dwindle down, the focus of these weekly start/sit previews will inherently shift from fringe fantasy commodities to more household names in positive or negative scenarios. Coming up with my Week 10 Starts and Sits, the promise of volume and predictability pulled harder at my psyche than any previous week. It’s important to maintain discipline and understand that outliers will continue to crop up to smite our preference for the big-name players to perform best.
At quarterback and tight end, in particular, we already deal with seemingly insurmountable variance on every slate. A multitude of QBs are viable on a week-to-week basis. Don’t be afraid to gamble on a high-ceiling passer because almost all options have a reasonable baseline of production. On the other hand, I recommend chasing tight ends with higher floors. Playing the TE position is often compared to roulette or B.I.N.G.O., but sometimes it feels more like Three-card Monte. Just when you think you know who will score the touchdowns, the cards get turned face up and your stakes in the game disappear into the pocket of a grifter with the face of Jesse James. The game may seem crooked, but you have to play the percentages, use the most talented TEs possible and otherwise skew towards target share and red zone rapport with quarterbacks. The TDs will come.
For insights into fake football’s more premium positions, let’s dive right into the links and video for Week 10:
- Blake Bortles @ BAL: Battling though a tough match-up with the Jets for yet another quality fantasy performance, Bortles has proven startable on a weekly basis.
- Peyton Manning vs. KC: The low over-under in this game is concerning, but Peyton appears to have exited the fantasy punchline highway.
- Joe Flacco vs. JAC: Baltimore may struggle to run against Jacksonville’s 2nd-ranked rush defense, so there’s shootout potential between Bortles and Flacco.
- Jameis Winston vs. DAL: Not a superb match-up, but I like the progress I’ve seen from Jameis. His floor is solid and the elevated play from Mike Evans ups his ceiling.
- Kirk Cousins vs. NO: An easy pick after Mariota torched the Saints last week.
- LeGarrette Blount @ NYG: Blount owners won’t be missing Dion Lewis quite as much as everyone else.
- Giovani Bernard & Jeremy Hill vs. HOU: The Bengals are big favorites in a game with a 47.5-point over/under, so there should be plenty of work for both Cinci backs.
- T.J. Yeldon @ BAL: A concession to the battered state of the running back position. Yeldon has consistent volume, so he’s worth playing.
- James Starks vs. DET: He’s usurped Lacy for now and this is a fine match-up.
- Theo Riddick @ GB: Give me the passing-down back in a game where the Lions should be playing catch-up.
- Stefon Diggs @ OAK: Somewhat contingent on Teddy Bridgewater playing, but could Shaun Hill really be that much worse?
- Kamar Aiken vs. JAC: See Joe Flacco above.
- Jordan Matthews vs. MIA: The bad rap he received through the first half of the season was somewhat justified, but he’s still the best receiver Philly has and they’re facing the NFL’s 25th-ranked pass defense this week.
- DeSean Jackson & Pierre Garcon vs. NO: See Kirk Cousins above.
- Kenny Stills @ PHI: If you’re searching the fringes for fantasy starters, lean towards big-play upside. Stills is averaging almost 65 yards per game since the Dolphins’ coaching change on only a handful of receptions.
- Chris Givens vs. JAC: Deep consideration only, but Givens is a deep threat like Stills in an offense desperate for receiving options.
- Eric Ebron @ GB: Potential for great game script against a team allowing the 10th-most points to tight ends.
- Delanie Walker vs. CAR: Should continue to be force fed targets. Don’t let the match-up scare you too much.
- Crockett Gillmore vs. JAC: Jacksonville tends to stuff the run, which should give the enormous Gillmore even more appeal in goal-line situations.
- Kyle Rudolph @ OAK: Oakland’s well of fantasy points against to tight ends dried up last week for Heath Miller, but I like Rudolph’s chances to wet his beak thanks to less competition for targets from other Vikings receivers.
- Russell Wilson vs. ARI: Wilson has a moderate floor most weeks, but this match-up could limit his potential ceiling. I won’t be surprised if he outperforms my expectations coming off a bye, but there are plenty of QBs I’d rather use this week.
- Ryan Tannehill @ PHI: On the road in cold weather against a quality defense, I’ll pass.
- Jay Cutler @ STL: The Rams’ defense will limit Cutler’s per-snap production, while their running game should chew up clock and limit Cutler’s playing time.
- Marcus Mariota vs. CAR: The Titans swing from a fantastic match-up to an abysmal one. Look elsewhere.
- Alex Smith @ DEN: I generally like Smith, but the Broncos should eat him alive.
- Chris Johnson @ SEA: Not a good spot for CJ2K. I’m much more interested in Arizona’s passing options this week.
- Alfred Blue @ CIN: He should get game-flowed right out of this match-up.
- Eddie Lacy vs. DET: See James Starks above.
- Antonio Andrews vs. CAR: See Marcus Mariota above.
- Rashad Jennings vs. NE: Same logic as Alfred Blue above. Shane Vereen is the NYG back you want this week.
- C.J. Spiller @ WAS: Two years in a row he sucked me in.
- Tedd Ginn Jr. @ TEN: The Panthers shouldn’t need to pass much in this game and the Titans’ pass defense is solid.
- Golden Tate @ GB: Calvin Johnson should see his normal heaping of targets, but I prefer Ebron’s chances to perform as the secondary receiver against the tough Green Bay secondary.
- Mike Wallace @ OAK: Where’s Wallace, String? Where’s Wallace?!
- Michael Floyd @ SEA: Larry Fitzgerald gets the volume and John Brown has the advantage of movement/slot positioning, which could lead Floyd on the outside looking in against the Seahawks.
- Doug Baldwin vs. ARI: See Russell Wilson above.
- Harry Douglas vs. CAR: Had the benefit of an expanded role in a great match-up last week. This time around, he might get swallowed whole by Josh Norman.
- Martellus Bennett @ STL: See Jay Cutler above.
- Charles Clay @ NYJ: Didn’t like this match-up for Clay, but he posted 5 catches for 52 yards on 6 targets, which is usable.
- Heath Miller vs. CLE: Can’t use him when Roethlisberger sits.
- Vernon Davis & Owen Daniels vs. KC: It’s too difficult to predict usage for either while VD is worked into the offense.
Thanks for reading/watching and good luck this week.