2012 Fantasy Football

Ξ 22 comments

Week 10 Fantasy Football Last Second Decisions

posted by Kevin Roberts

Carson Palmer and Doug Martin led their respective positions in fantasy production in week nine. I could have told you both would have had quality games, but I can honestly say I would have never picked either one to be the top guy – much less top-five, probably.

But one week changes a lot. Martin is now a borderline top-five guy from now until eternity, while Palmer’s knack for putting up yardage on a routine basis makes him a casual flirter with top-10 fantasy football production. Maybe. Perhaps.

All we know for sure is that there are always going to be those random breakout performances that no one really saw coming. For the rest of it, we just have to use history, numbers, matchups, logic and that big, round, feverish gut we’ve got hanging over our belts.

I’m sticking with mine – Palmer and Martin be damned.

With that, let’s parachute jump into week 10’s fantasy football last second decisions:

Injury Channel

Jake Locker, QB, Tennessee Titans (Shoulder)

Locker is expected to start barring any setbacks, and I think he’s ready to pick up where he left off. He’s basically still a rookie, but he’s a freak athlete with a cannon arm. That should equate to some magical things against a spotty Miami pass D.

Brady Quinn, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (Head)

Quinn is out. I know you’ll miss him dearly. Matt Cassel is available, but you really shouldn’t use him against the Steelers. Or against invisible people.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks (Wrist/Back)

Lynch is a bit banged up, but he’ll play against the Jets this week. New York has been burned against the run a ton this year, so Lynch is easily a top-10 fantasy option.

Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (Head)

Charles has passed all of his concussion tests, so it looks like he’ll face the Steelers on Monday Night Football. He’s explosive and can get it done against anyone, but this would be a fantastic week to sit him if you can afford to.

Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders (Ankle)

McFadden has a bad ankle sprain and is highly questionable for week 10. He still could give it a go, but the injury and his sketchy season so far make him a major risk against the Ravens. His top backup, Mike Goodson, is also unlikely to play.

Darren Sproles, RB, New Orleans Saints (Hand)

Sproles will miss at least one more game with a broken hand. Pierre Thomas will continue in his role, while Chris Ivory will operate as the main back (even if he’s not the actual starter).

DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys (Foot)

Don’t bank on Murray playing this week. The Cowboys need him, but his bum foot will get at least one more week of rest. Felix Jones should get the majority of carries again this week.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions (Knee)

Megatron is in no danger of missing action this week. He’s better off than he as last week at this time, and that’s after torching the Jaguars. I love him against the Vikings this week.

Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings (Ankle)

Harvin’s ankle is mangled, but he’s not a guarantee sit call just yet. I’d be a little scared to use him, but you know he’ll touch the ball a ton if he plays. Just stay on top of his status up until kickoff.

Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants (Knee)

Nicks still has that troublesome knee, but he’s likely to face the Bengals this week. The matchup could work for him, but he’s not healthy and has been pretty quiet for several weeks now. It should be another big day for Victor Cruz.

Stevie Johnson, WR, Buffalo Bills (Thigh)

Johnson is on the injury report with a sore thigh, but should play against the Patriots. New England and Buffalo have combined for over 60 points in their last three outings, so expect a solid game if Johnson suits up.

Aaron Hernandez, TE, New England Patriots (Ankle)

Hernandez’s ankle still isn’t where it needs to be, but he’s had two weeks to rest and has a shot at playing this week. The matchup with the Bills is inviting, but his status is shaky.

Owen Daniels, TE, Houston Texans (Hip)

Daniels is dealing with a crazy sore hip and has been limited all week, making it a tough road to make him a full-fledged start this week. Head coach Gary Kubiak alluded to as much, so monitor his status heading into game day.

Crescent Role Watch

Andre Brown vs. Ahmad Bradshaw (red-zone)

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that Bradshaw is still the full-blown starter and a solid RB2, but fantasy owners might be raising eyebrows over the red-zone results. After all, Brown has a rushing score in three straight games, while Ahmad has just one. I say keep the panic at bay and realize this: Bradshaw has carries to Brown’s five over that three-game span. Color it luck and stop banking on Brown to rescue you in the Flex spot. Sooner or later it’ll catch up with you.

Steelers Ground Attack and the Men Not Named Mike Wallace

Isaac Redman is the only healthy Steelers running back, so look for him to get the majority of work as the team’s lead runner against the Chiefs on MNF. Jonathan Dwyer should return and have a roll, but Pitt looks to ride the hot hand. Since Redman is the healthier one and did well last week, expect it to be him.

There is a similar issue at wide receiver with Antonio Brown out this week, and it’s coming down to Emmanuel Sanders vs. Jerricho Cotchery. Cotch played more last week, but Sanders was the one to score a touchdown. Look for Sanders to get the start opposite of Mike Wallace and have a WR3-esque game against Kansas City.

Matchup Mahem

  • I’m a fan of Chargers’ passing game options against a bad Buccaneers pass defense this week. Not only do the Chargers not score touchdowns on the ground, but Tampa Bay just got destroyed through the air by, you guessed it, Carson friggin’ Palmer. Philip Rivers should shine, while you can expect Antonio Gates to put up his third quality game of the year.
  • The Vikings seem to be dying right now on both sides of the ball. Besides Adrian Peterson, they’re not looking too great these days. That makes me think Matthew Stafford has a big game this week, and it also makes me think Megatron will finally score more than one touchdown in a game. I think he’s the top receiver in week 10.
  • I’m not saying Ray Rice is going to be the top back in week 10, but after seeing what Doug Martin did to the Raiders, fantasy owners will have to make sure they have a napkin to catch all the evasive saliva.
  • Tennesse and Miami could be pairing up for a big of a shootout. Neither team defends the pass very well at all, and the Titans can get run on all day. I like Ryan Tannehill, Reggie Bush and Brian Hartline (he’s back, by the way) for the Dolphins, while Jake Locker could excite some owners who take a chance on him. I’m not in love with Chris Johnson against a tough Miami run D, but I do like Jared Cook and Kenny Britt.
  • I’m not seeing a whole lot of defense in the Falcons/Saints game. Julio Jones could threaten for the top receiver spot in week 10, and Roddy White won’t be far behind. Tony Gonzalez should catch touchdown numero 100 in this one.
  • Just when you thought it was safe to trust him, I’ll betting Cam Newton comes up lame. He looked a little more solid last week, but this Broncos defense is looking pretty tough. They shutdown Drew Brees, after all.
  • Bills and Patriots players. Play them.

The Battle of Fantasy Gettysburg

Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants

Freeman against a pretty good Chargers defense or Eli rolling in an ugly drought? I’m actually leaning towards Freeman’s run hitting a snag this week, and Eli getting back on track against a beatable Bengals defense. Go with Manning.

Marcel Reece, RB, Oakland Raiders vs. Taiwan Jones, RB, Oakland Raiders

Jones is supposedly slated for the early down work, but I’m not buying him as the better value. After all, once Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson went down last week (both should be out in week 10), it was Reece, not Jones, who saw a ton of work (8 rec, 90 + yds, TD). If the Raiders get down against the Ravens (and they will), Reece will once again be active as a receive rout of the back-field.

Brian Hartline, WR, Miami Dolphins vs. Danny Amendola, WR, St. Louis Rams

Amendola makes his return this week, which is awesome. But he faces the 49ers, which is not. I know they’re both underrated white guys, but Hartline actually returned to relevance last week (100+ yds, 7 rec), and he gets a weak Titans D. I like Hartline.

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings vs. Brandon Myers, TE, Oakland Raiders

I was very high on Rudolph going into the season, and for a while I was looking pretty smart. Unfortunately, Christian Ponders has sunk to new lows (under 70 pass yds in 2 of last 3 games), and Rudy simply can’t be trusted. He’s worth a shot in the dark in TD leagues, but Myers is a PPR beast and even scored twice last week. Start Myers with confidence.

I know this column can’t possibly answer everything, so for everything else, hit me up on Twitter @NFLSoupKevin. I’m not always able to get to every question on the message boards below this article (although I certainly will try), but I should hit every question I get on Twitter.

Kevin Roberts

Kevin Roberts owns and operates NFL Soup and heads the fantasy football division of the site. Roberts also finished 2nd in the Wide Receiver position in Fantasy Pros expert fantasy football rankings in 2010 and 3rd in the Quarterback position in 2011. In addition to running the fantasy football section of the site, Roberts contributes to NFL Soup's NFL Draft coverage and breaking news reporting. Follow Kevin on Twitter @NFLSoupKevin

22 Comments

  • I am in yahoo PPR league (TD’s worth 5) and down 13.86 points. Have both Bowe and Sanders for tonights contest…which one would you recommend starting? Thanks

    • I’d still go Bowe here. As long as Cassel is there he’ll at least get targets, while Sanders is hit or miss. He’s starting, but he’s not Antonio Brown and doesn’t have Bowe’s upside.

  • 10 Team PPR, I’m in 2nd, 3rd place wants to set up a trade. Do you see a trade that could work at all? My team: Luck, Cruz, Marshall, Wayne, Rice, AP, Gates, Dez, Eli, DMC, Joique, Vernon, Amendola, Beanie. His team: Staff, Shorts, B lloyd, Wright, Foster, Ridley, Hernandez, Ballard, Harvin, Redman, Finley, Sproles, Alexander, Taiwan

  • 14 Team PPR: Would you rather have Daryl Richardson or Chris Ivory on your bench?

  • 14 Team PPR: I am still undecided whether I should start Crabtree or Britt as my WR3…
    Thanks!

    • Crabtree is safer but Britt has the upside. Way better matchup and Locker back gives him extra potential. I like Britt here.

  • Hey Kevin…Looking at adding Britt to my bench the playoff run. Would you drop Redman or Reece to make room? Probably not starting either this week, FYI. Thanks!

    • You can drop either, as Steelers backfield is crowded and getting healthy and Run DMC and Goodson won’t be out forever. I’d probably drop Reece though, since Redman has proven himself more

  • 14 Team PPR: Super weak at rb2, would you trade for Charles? My team: Staff, Mega, Decker, Crabtree, Martin, Andre Brown, Bennett, Janikowski, Britt, Alex Green, Alex Smith, Kendall Hunter, Beanie. His Team: Brees VJax, Cruz, Boldin, Bradshaw, Ridley, Keller, Charles, Pitta, Ponder, Dwyer, Redman. Charles kind of seems like a gamble.
    Thanks!

    • Charles is a gamble, but so is rolling with your current RBs. it’ll be nice to get Beanie back, but you’re relying on a guy who’s been hurt all year to stay healthy. I’d make the move

      • Thanks. After looking at both of our rosters, what kind of trade do you think I should propose?

  • In a 8 team league, is it safe to drop S-Jax? My rostered RB’s include….Charles, Mcgahee, Matthews, DMC and Demarco on IR.

    • 8-team, yeah. but I still wouldn’t drop him if you can help it. thats some monster depth if you can hang onto him

  • Absolutely need a W this week: Gates or Hernandez? .5ppr

    • Love both. I’ll say Hern because he played well against them last time, seems healthy, and Pats and Bills have put up at least 60 combined pts in 3 straight games

    • Actually, just caught that Hern is out this week. Gates should do fine against weak TB pass D.

  • Reece or j-stew as my 2nd rb behind charles in a full ppr league?

  • Middling Maclin, Tattered Titus or Emerging Emmanuel PPR?

    • All three are sketchy to a certain degree. Maclin is facing a top 5 Cowboys pass D and he’s topped 39 rec yds just TWICE all year. Moving on…Young has been a hero and weakling in back to back weeks, and Emmanuel scored last week and has an awesome matchup against the Chiefs.

      All that being said, I like Young against a beatable Vikings pass D (one that Russell Wilson burned). Stafford should have a field day, and with Min focusing on stopping Megatron, Young should thrive.

  • Thanks for the read. My battlefield conundrum for PPR is Amendola vs. Bowe. I see it as injury/rust risk vs. shut-down even in garbage time risk. Flipping coins with my kids resulted in Amendola. How do you see it?

    • I personally think this one is easy, because both have terrible matchups AND Danny will be in his first game back. The matchups are a wash, so moving on at least Bowe is healthy and Matt Cassel actually likes throwing to him. The Steelers might keep him out of the end-zone, but Bowe should see a good amount of targets.

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