Week 10 DFS Value Picks November 14, 2015  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

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One of the best ways to separate yourself from the crowd in DFS is to be able to find players that are priced below where they should be for their potential output. Sometimes this is easy (e.g. when a starting RB is injured after prices are released and their low-priced backup all of a sudden is in line for a lot more work), sometimes it isn’t and requires a lot more research and – as is often the case – luck. However, as they say, preparation begets luck. Below, you’ll see six tables, each covering value plays from a different daily fantasy website. Picks are provided for DraftDay, DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyAces, FantasyDraft and FantasyHub.

There are three picks for each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE). You will see one cash pick, one tournament pick, and one high risk/high reward pick that should usually only be used in GPPs with thousands of players (such as the Million Dollar contests on FD and DK). The high risk/high reward pick will be listed as Hail Mary. The prices for each pick are capped at $2,000 above the minimum value for sites with a $50,000 salary cap and $4,000 for sites with a $100,000, though there are a few exceptions if pricing really limits the number of players available.  So, for instance, you won’t see a DraftKings QB listed for more than $7,000 because the minimum price for a QB on DK is $5,000 and the salary cap is $50,000. You get the idea. You’ll also see the following columns:

Game Type: Is this a CASH (50/50, head-to-head), GPP (tournament), or Hail Mary (high risk/high reward for huge tournaments).

% of Total $: This tells you what percentage of your salary cap is being used up by using this player.

50/50 Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in 50/50 games.

GPP Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs).

Note: I generally aim for more than what is needed to actually cash. For example, in 2014 you needed an average of 111.21 FP and 121.85 FP to cash in 50/50s and GPPs on FanDuel, respectively. This equates to multiples of 1.85 and 2.03, though in the tables below the numbers I have listed assume FanDuel multiples of 2 for 50/50s and 2.5 for GPPs. If you can hit the multiples below, you’ll have a better chance of actually cashing. It’s obviously not a guarantee that you’ll cash – sometimes you can win a GPP on DraftKings with 180 FP, other times it takes 303! – but on average, hitting these numbers will give you a baseline for your expectations. Remember: Always aim for more. These picks should help act as a starting point in your research for low-priced, high-upside players. Remember, these picks have been made well ahead of time. Anything can happen between now and Sunday.

Before going further, I’ve compiled a small table showing what you would have needed to cash in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and the FanDuel Sunday Million through the first nine weeks of the season. You’ll see the average needed to win as well as the equivalent multiple.

DFS Winning Scores——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Quick Week 10 Notes

There is a lot of value to be had this week, especially at the QB position. So, let’s start there, shall we?

Holland Christian High School standout Kirk Cousins gets the nod for my top value play of the week. While he can be erratic and often hurt your team more than help you, the matchup against the Saints is too good to look past. The Saints are dead last is fantasy defense against opposing QBs, giving up 25 and 27 FP on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively. While it always makes my stomach cringe when I put Cousins onto one of my DFS rosters, I’ll just have to look past that this week as he could put up numbers similar to the ones he put up in the game against Tampa Bay.

The other top value QB is Blake Bortles. Why his price remains low, I’ll never know. Seriously, this guy is a legitimate fantasy QB1 and deserves to be rostered every week, even in tough matchups – and Baltimore is not a tough matchup. In fact, they are second only to New Orleans in giving up fake points to QBs. You’ll have a hard time convincing me to not play him. In fact, I’m playing Bortles and Cousins in 90%+ of my lineups this week. That’s how confident I feel in them exceeding value. If you want to pay up, do so only in cash games this week (Brady, Rodgers).

You’ll see that I’m also a fan of Washington WRs this week, particularly Pierre Garcon. Did you know that Garcon only has one week this year in which he hasn’t scored in double figures in PPR leagues? It’s shockingly true. You never hear any pundits talk about him, but he has quietly been his consistent self. While I think Jordan Reed is the more likely candidate to score a TD this week, Garcon has a chance to put up very respectable numbers. Roster him in cash games, especially on full PPR sites. DeSean Jackson also makes for a solid play, but preferably in tournaments as he’s boom or bust. The only place he’s a true value play, however, is on FanDuel this week.

It looks like I’m only focusing on two games at the moment: Washington/New Orleans and Jacksonville/Baltimore. Well, it’s for good reason as value abounds in both games. In addition to the above names, I like the idea of rostering Ravens WRs this week. While everyone knows about Kamar Aiken, I think the more intriguing play is Chris Givens. Givens offers Flacco the deep threat that he sorely needs without Steve Smith in the lineup. While he doesn’t offer consistency, he’s worth a shot if you are entering multiple lineups into a tournament.

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So, let’s take a quick look at how we did in week 9.

 

Week 9 Recap

Injuries are so frustrating. While the final results were decent on most sites, they could have been a lot better if not for Malcom Floyd. Floyd exited in the 2nd quarter with a torn labrum (which he will apparently try to play through as this is his last season), leaving fantasy owners with a 0. I suggested him in all of my lineups — ouch. Well, injuries are a part of the game, unfortunately. Things like this happen, which means you have to learn to just shake it off.

So, what else went wrong this week? Rishard Matthews turned in an underwhelming fantasy performance. With Tannehill looking to Landry 13 times (completing 11) and to Lamar Miller 7 times, Rishard was kind of left out of the mix. While 4/54 is respectable, it’s not enough for the price paid for Matthews in DFS. Heath Miller was basically nonexistent against Oakland. While they have made most other TEs look like studs, Miller turned in a 3/32 line. It would have been better, but Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams decided to combine for over 500 yards of offense….insane. Miller didn’t play poorly, by any means, but for fantasy purposes he was a relative dud.

What went right? Running back was a position of strength last week. Jeremy Langford had himself a big game, starting for the injured Matt Forte. It looked dicey early on as Ka’Deem Carey started for the Bears, though — fortunately — Langford was the bell cow and was heavily involved in the Chicago win. LeGarrette Blount, the other RB I suggested using across all sites, had a very solid day against the hapless Washington run defense.

QB was another position of strength this week, as Jay Cutler and Jameis Winston, my two most suggested picks, had very solid performances. My one regret here is not suggesting Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota on more than one site. They both had outstanding games this past week and should continue to be fantasy studs throughout their careers (though, you may want to avoid Marcus this week against the Panthers).

Best Week 9 Picks: Jeremy Langford (Every site), LeGarrette Blount (Every site), Jay Cutler (DD, DK, FDr, FH)

Worst Week 9 Picks: Malcom Floyd (Every site), Rishard Matthews (DD, FDr, FH), Heath Miller (DK, FA)

Week 9 Results

Week 9 Results

Now that that’s all out of the way….onto the DFS value picks for Week 10!

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If you have any questions, please leave a message down below or hit me up on Twitter @ianrgold.

Note: I have asterisks next to guys with iffy injury statuses and those whose value depends on the injury status of another player. If the player ends up not playing or his value ends up diminished due to the status of another player (For example, I had Dwayne Harris listed as a play in Week 6, but his value was predicated upon Odell Beckham not playing.), I’ll either try to replace them (if time permits) or I’ll exclude them from the results.

 

DraftDay – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Kirk CousinsWASNOQBCASH/GPP$12,20012.2%18.324.4
Ryan TannehillMIAPHIQBGPP$13,80013.8%20.727.6
Landry JonesPITCLEQBHail Mary$10,00010.0%15.020.0
Shane VereenNYGNERBGPP$8,2508.3%12.416.5
Duke JohnsonCLEPITRBGPP$8,5008.5%12.817.0
Matt JonesWASNORBHail Mary$6,5506.6%9.813.1
Kamar AikenBALJAXWRCASH$7,7507.8%11.615.5
Brandon LaFellNENYGWRGPP$7,6507.7%11.515.3
Travis BenjaminCLEPITWRHail Mary$8,3008.3%12.516.6
Ben WatsonNOWASTEGPP$9,2009.2%13.818.4
Kyle RudolphMINOAKTEGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Julius ThomasJAXBALTEHail Mary$6,6506.7%10.013.3

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Blake BortlesJAXBALQBCASH/GPP$5,60011.2%16.822.4
Kirk CousinsWASNOQBCASH/GPP$5,20010.4%15.620.8
Landry JonesPITCLEQBHail Mary$5,30010.6%15.921.2
Darren McFaddenDALTBRBCASH$4,9009.8%14.719.6
Shane VereenNYGNERBGPP$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Duke JohnsonCLEPITRBGPP$4,0008.0%12.016.0
Pierre GarconWASNOWRCASH/GPP$4,8009.6%14.419.2
Kamar AikenBALJAXWRCASH$4,5009.0%13.518.0
Brandon LaFellNENYGWRGPP$4,1008.2%12.316.4
Ben WatsonNOWASTEGPP$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Kyle RudolphMINOAKTEGPP$3,0006.0%9.012.0
Julius ThomasJAXBALTEHail Mary$3,7007.4%11.114.8

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Kirk CousinsWASNOQBCASH$6,80011.3%13.617.0
Landry JonesPITCLEQBHail Mary$6,20010.3%12.415.5
Teddy BridgewaterMINOAKQBGPP$6,70011.2%13.416.8
James StarksGBDETRBCASH$6,00010.0%12.015.0
Ryan MathewsPHIMIARBGPP$5,6009.3%11.214.0
Matt JonesWASNORBHail Mary$5,6009.3%11.214.0
Martavis BryantPITCLEWRGPP$6,50010.8%13.016.3
Pierre GarconWASNOWRCASH$6,40010.7%12.816.0
DeSean JacksonWASNOWRHail Mary$6,00010.0%12.015.0
Jordan ReedWASNOTEGPP$5,8009.7%11.614.5
Greg OlsenCARTENTEGPP$6,30010.5%12.615.8
Kyle RudolphMINOAKTEHail Mary$4,7007.8%9.411.8

 

FantasyAces – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Kirk CousinsWASNOQBCASH/GPP$5,50011.0%16.522.0
Blake BortlesJAXBALQBCASH/GPP$6,30012.6%18.925.2
Landry JonesPITCLEQBHail Mary$5,30010.6%15.921.2
LeGarrette BlountNENYGRBCASH$4,4008.8%13.217.6
Duke JohnsonCLEPITRBGPP$4,2008.4%12.616.8
Matt JonesWASNORBHail Mary$4,0008.0%12.016.0
Davante AdamsGBDETWRGPP$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Chris GivensBALJAXWRGPP$4,0008.0%12.016.0
Mike WallaceMINOAKWRHail Mary$4,0008.0%12.016.0
Ben WatsonNOWASTEGPP$4,5009.0%13.518.0
Kyle RudolphMINOAKTEHail Mary$4,0008.0%12.016.0
Eric EbronDETGBTEGPP$4,2008.4%12.616.8

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOPPPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Blake BortlesJAXBALQBCASH/GPP$11,10011.1%16.722.2
Kirk CousinsWASNOQBCASH/GPP$10,20010.2%15.320.4
Teddy BridgewaterMINOAKQBHail Mary$10,00010.0%15.020.0
Darren McFaddenDALTBRBCASH/GPP$9,2009.2%13.818.4
Shane VereenNYGNERBGPP$8,0008.0%12.016.0
Duke JohnsonCLEPITRBHail Mary$7,8007.8%11.715.6
Stefon DiggsMINOAKWRCASH/GPP$10,00010.0%15.020.0
Brandon LaFellNENYGWRGPP$8,1008.1%12.216.2
Chris GivensBALJAXWRHail Mary$6,4006.4%9.612.8
Jordan ReedWASNOTECASH/GPP$8,8008.8%13.217.6
Kyle RudolphMINOAKTEHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Ben WatsonNOWASTEGPP$8,1008.1%12.216.2

 

FantasyHub – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Kirk CousinsWASNOQBCASH/GPP$5,10010.2%15.317.9
Blake BortlesJAXBALQBCASH/GPP$5,40010.8%16.218.9
Ryan TannehillMIAPHIQBGPP$5,20010.4%15.618.2
Darren McFaddenDALTBRBCASH/GPP$4,8009.6%14.416.8
Shane VereenNYGNERBGPP$4,1008.2%12.314.4
Duke JohnsonCLEPITRBGPP$3,0006.0%9.010.5
Stefon DiggsMINOAKWRCASH/GPP$4,9009.8%14.717.2
Pierre GarconWASNOWRCASH/GPP$4,6009.2%13.816.1
Chris GivensBALJAXWRGPP$3,0006.0%9.010.5
Jordan ReedWASNOTECASH/GPP$4,4008.8%13.215.4
Kyle RudolphMINOAKTEGPP$3,0006.0%9.010.5
Julius ThomasJAXBALTEHail Mary$3,6007.2%10.812.6

 

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