Week 1 DFS Value Picks September 9, 2015  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

Check out our NFL DFS Cheat Sheet!

 

One of the best ways to separate yourself from the crowd in DFS is to be able to find players that are priced below where they should be for their potential output. Sometimes this is easy (e.g. when a starting RB is injured after prices are released and their low-priced backup all of a sudden is in line for a lot more work), sometimes it isn’t and requires a lot more research and – as is often the case – luck. However, as they say, preparation begets luck. Below, you’ll see six tables, each covering value plays from a different daily fantasy website. Picks are provided for DraftDay, DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyAces, FantasyDraft and StarsDraft (formerly Victiv).

There are three picks for each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE). You will see one cash pick, one tournament pick, and one high risk/high reward pick that should only be used in GPPs with thousands of players (such as the Million Dollar contests on FD and DK). The high risk/high reward pick will be listed as Hail Mary. The prices for each pick are capped at $2,000 above the minimum value for sites with a $50,000 salary cap and $4,000 for sites with a $100,000, though there are a few exceptions (e.g. StarsDraft has much lower minimum values, which throws things off a bit).  So, for instance, you won’t see a DraftKings QB listed for more than $7,000 because the minimum price for a QB on DK is $5,000 and the salary cap is $50,000. You get the idea. You’ll also see the following columns:

Game Type: Is this a CASH (50/50, head-to-head), GPP (tournament), or Hail Mary (high risk/high reward for huge tournaments).

% of Total $: This tells you what percentage of your salary cap is being used up by using this player.

50/50 Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in 50/50 games.

GPP Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs).

Note: I generally aim for more than what is needed to actually cash. For example, in 2014 you needed an average of 111.21 FP and 121.85 FP to cash in 50/50s and GPPs on FanDuel, respectively. This equates to multiples of 1.85 and 2.03, though in the tables below the numbers I have listed assume FanDuel multiples of 2 for 50/50s and 2.5 for GPPs. If you can hit the multiples below, you’ll have a better chance of actually cashing. It’s obviously not a guarantee that you’ll cash – sometimes you can win a GPP on DraftKings with 180 FP, other times it takes 303! – but on average, hitting these numbers will give you a baseline for your expectations. Remember: Always aim for more.

Starting in Week 2, I will have columns listing how much each player scored the previous week and will start to incorporate opponent rankings vs specific positions, but I will skip that for Week 1 (you can always look at last year’s stats, but I frankly don’t find them very useful).

These picks should help act as a starting point in your research for low-priced, high-upside players. Remember, these picks have been made well ahead of time – especially for the first week. Anything can happen between now and Sunday. Injuries may arise, someone we think is starting ends up on the bench, etc. Leonard Hankerson, for instance, becomes a much riskier play if Roddy White is close to 100% and takes the field. So, use these as one tool of many in your research to build the best lineup possible….And most of all, have fun!

If you have any questions, leave a message down below or hit me up on Twitter @ianrgold.

 

DraftDay – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP PtsOpponent
Tyrod TaylorBUFQBCASH$10,000.0010.0%15.020.0IND
Andy DaltonCINQBGPP$13,900.0013.9%20.927.8OAK
Marcus MariotaTENQBHail Mary$13,250.0013.3%19.926.5TB
Chris IvoryNYJRBCASH$9,550.009.6%14.319.1CLE
Danny WoodheadSDRBGPP$7,350.007.4%11.014.7DET
Tevin ColemanATLRBHail Mary$8,250.008.3%12.416.5PHI
Charles JohnsonMINWRCASH$9,300.009.3%14.018.6SF
Leonard HankersonATLWRGPP$6,000.006.0%9.012.0PHI
Torrey SmithSFWRHail Mary$9,050.009.1%13.618.1MIN
Jason WittenDALTECASH$8,000.008.0%12.016.0NYG
Ben WatsonNOTEGPP$6,000.006.0%9.012.0AZ
Richard RodgersGBTEHail Mary$6,000.006.0%9.012.0CHI

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP PtsOpponent
Sam BradfordPHIQBCASH$6,90013.8%20.727.6ATL
Carson PalmerAZQBGPP$6,50013.0%19.526.0NO
Tyrod TaylorBUFQBHail Mary$5,00010.0%15.020.0IND
Chris IvoryNYJRBCASH$4,1008.2%12.316.4CLE
Doug MartinTBRBGPP$4,5009.0%13.518.0TEN
Alfred BlueHOURBHail Mary$3,6007.2%10.814.4KC
Davante AdamsGBWRCASH$4,4008.8%13.217.6CHI
Leonard HankersonATLWRGPP$3,0006.0%9.012.0PHI
Terrance WilliamsDALWRHail Mary$4,0008.0%12.016.0NYG
Martellus BennettCHITECASH$4,3008.6%12.917.2GB
Ben WatsonNOTEGPP$2,6005.2%7.810.4AZ
Jordan ReedWASTEHail Mary$3,3006.6%9.913.2MIA

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP PtsOpponent
Alex SmithKCQBCASH$6,600
11.0%13.216.5HOU
Tyrod TaylorBUFQBGPP$5,0008.3%10.012.5IND
Kirk CousinsWASQBHail Mary$6,00010.0%12.015.0MIA
Chris IvoryNYJRBCASH$6,40010.7%12.816.0CLE
Alfred BlueHOURBGPP$5,8009.7%11.614.5KC
Isaiah CrowellCLERBHail Mary$6,10010.2%12.215.3NYJ
Davante AdamsGBWRCASH$5,5009.2%11.013.8CHI
Larry FitzgeraldAZWRGPP$6,00010.0%12.015.0NO
Leonard HankersonATLWRHail Mary$4,5007.5%9.011.3PHI
Martellus BennettCHITECASH$6,20010.3%12.415.5GB
Greg OlsenCARTEGPP$5,9009.8%11.814.8JAX
Ben WatsonNOTEHail Mary$4,6007.7%9.211.5AZ

 

FantasyAces – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP PtsOpponent
Sam BradfordPHIQBCASH$6,250.0012.5%18.825.0ATL
Eli ManningNYGQBGPP$6,150.0012.3%18.524.6DAL
Tyrod TaylorBUFQBHail Mary$4,500.009.0%13.518.0IND
Lamar MillerMIARBCASH$4,450.008.9%13.417.8WAS
Chris IvoryNYJRBGPP$3,950.007.9%11.915.8CLE
Doug MartinTBRBHail Mary$4,100.008.2%12.316.4TEN
Jordan MatthewsPHIWRCASH$4,400.008.8%13.217.6ATL
Charles JohnsonMINWRGPP$4,000.008.0%12.016.0SF
Eddie RoyalCHIWRHail Mary$4,000.008.0%12.016.0GB
Jason WittenDALTECASH$4,350.008.7%13.117.4DAL
Ladarius GreenSDTEGPP$3,700.007.4%11.114.8DET
Richard RodgersGBTEHail Mary$3,200.006.4%9.612.8CHI

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP PtsOPP
Alex SmithKCQBCASH$12,40012.4%18.624.8HOU
Carson PalmerAZQBGPP$12,90012.9%19.425.8NO
Marcus MariotaTENQBHail Mary$12,00012.0%18.024.0TB
Chris IvoryNYJRBCASH$8,0008.0%12.016.0CLE
Doug MartinTBRBGPP$8,4008.4%12.616.8TEN
Darren SprolesPHIRBHail Mary$6,3006.3%9.512.6ATL
Eddit RoyalCHIWRCASH$7,6007.6%11.415.2GB
Leonard HankersonATLWRGPP$6,8006.8%10.213.6PHI
Cole BeasleyDALWRHail Mary$6,6006.6%9.913.2NYG
Delanie WalkerTENTECASH$7,0007.0%10.514.0TB
Benjamin WatsonNOTEGPP$6,5006.5%9.813.0AZ
Richard RodgersGBTEHail Mary$6,4006.4%9.612.8CHI

 

StarsDraft (Victiv) – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP PtsOpponent
Teddy BridgewaterMINQBCASH$5,90011.8%14.817.7SF
Tyrod TaylorBUFQBGPP$5,10010.2%12.815.3IND
Andy DaltonCINQBHail Mary$5,60011.2%14.016.8OAK
Chris IvoryNYJRBCASH$4,3008.6%10.812.9CLE
Benny CunninghamSTLRBGPP$2,7005.4%6.88.1SEA
Denard RobinsonJAXRBHail Mary$3,8007.6%9.511.4CAR
Ted Ginn Jr.CARWRCASH$2,6005.2%6.57.8JAX
Leonard HankersonATLWRGPP$3,5007.0%8.810.5PHI
James JonesGBWRHail Mary$2,5005.0%6.37.5CHI
Jordan CameronMIATECASH$3,8007.6%9.511.4WAS
Delanie WalkerTENTEGPP$3,6007.2%9.010.8TB
Richard RodgersGBTEHail Mary$2,1004.2%5.36.3CHI

 

Week 1 DraftKings Freeroll: $100,000 in Prizes!

Leave a Reply

2015 DFS

The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Divisional Playoffs WEEKEND UPDATE

  The Huddle – Opening Statement There will be no “My Guys” section as you can plainly see my rankings. The top few guys are “my guys”, the bottom guys are…um, not. New information and thoughts will be in bolded italics. Welcome to the Playoff – Divisional Round Hail Mary. This is ...

READ MORE

Divisional Round DFS Cheat Sheet (UPDATED)

  Welcome to The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet for the Divisional Round! . With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Chet Gresham, Ian Goldsmith and Doug Shain, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks ...

READ MORE

The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Divisional Playoffs FIRST LOOK

    The Huddle – Opening Statement Welcome to the Playoff – Divisional Round Hail Mary. This is going to be a REALLY abbreviated version of the Hail Mary with only 4 games on the schedule. I’m going to do the article a little differently this week since there are so few ...

READ MORE