Victiv Picks: Week 16
December 18, 2014 | Justin Edwards
This is the week of the Victiv Bowl! If you haven’t had a chance to satellite in or straight-up purchase an entry what are you waiting for? First prize is a nice $50k and a trip to the Super Bowl! I’m here to help you set up a lineup and take a trip to Arizona, so be sure to check out Victiv.com!
Three tiers or levels of players I will be looking at:
Arrogant Bastard: Some of the best around and a price tag to match
Budweiser: Solid choice with a solid price
Natural Light: The cheapest you can find while still obtaining value
Arrogant Bastard – Drew Brees ($11,000)
I’m gonna go back to the well with the top spot in possibly the most important position in your DFS lineup. Brees had a cupcake matchup away from the Superdome and did what he hasn’t done a whole lot of on the road this year: score you a bunch of fantasy points. Over the last 4 weeks he has averaged a 321-3-.5 statline and that’s including a pretty big stinker against Carolina. Saints are travelling back home for a game they’ll need to win to keep atop of the anemic NFC South. They’ll face off against an Atlanta team allowing the most Yds/G to QBs and ranking 32nd in Defensive DVOA; 31st in Pass Defense DVOA.
Budweiser – Matt Ryan ($9,500)
Matty Ice now has five 300+ yard games and three of them have come in the last three weeks. The last of those contests was without top-5 wide out Julio Jones. Julio hasn’t practiced up to this point in the week but even without his #1 WR I would expect Ryan to top the 300 yard mark once again and add in a couple more scores. These two teams haven’t played since week 1 but this QB had an absolute field day, throwing for 448 (!!) yards and 3 scores. The Saints haven’t shored up their secondary all that much since then, allowing a 2nd and 3rd QB to toss for over 400 yards since then en route to allowing over 26 points a game to their opponents.
Natural Light – Alex Smith ($8,200)
Alright, so he’s not the most exciting guy to put in your lineup. Actually, he’s not exciting at all unless a defender falls down and Knile Davis scampers for a 70-yard touchdown. What we can look forward to is a guy whose floor is pretty much as high as his ceiling and he’s facing a Steelers defense that hasn’t been shutting down anybody’s pass game, no matter the QB. Plug in Alex into your 50/50 lineups for guaranteed easy points.
Arrogant Bastard – Jamaal Charles ($7,800)
In the exact opposite vein you can start Alex’s teammate in your GPP lineups. Charles is usually good for 20 FP/gm but this is a contest that could catapult him high enough to help lead your tournament plays to a nice cashout. It’s a relatively well-known fact that not a single Chiefs WR has scored a touchdown this year. Jamaal has 5 of those receiving TDs and he’s also added 9 more on the ground, tying him with Lynch as the league leader. Charles was none too happy about being pulled from the game last week so I can see Andy Reid making it up to him by running this offense through him for most of the game. He’ll definitely get into the endzone at least once, be it through the air or on the ground.
Budweiser – C.J. Anderson ($5,800)
Last week was CJ’s first start in which he didn’t find the endzone or at least 100 total yards. We can excuse him this one faux pas and fire him back into our lineups against a Bengals defense that has allowed the 2nd most rushing TDs in the league. The Broncos have no problem leaning on Anderson as Peyton has only 55 pass completions over the last 3 games; the lowest total in a 3 game stretch over his entire career. Cincinnati has a pretty stout passing defense so Denver will have to attack them on the ground and via the ol’ Texas dump off.
Natural Light – Tre Mason ($5,000)
A terrible showing Thursday night has kept Mason’s price at a very affordable level. This $5k price tag has him under #2 RBs and even running backs who might end up not seeing more than 7 touches (Joseph Randle). This week’s score may not be a whole lot different then last week’s but this Rams opponent is the 3rd worst rush defense as opposed to the 6th best. New York is allowing 4.9 YPC this year and Tre Mason has been averaging nearly 18 carries a game over the last seven weeks. Simple math turns those numbers into 90 yards. Add a score into there and you have yourself a great line for a cheap price.
Arrogant Bastard – Jordy Nelson ($7,500)
Targeting the Tampa Bay secondary is usually a pretty easy and profitable line of thinking. This week they host the Green Bay Packers and a difficult receiving corps to contend against. Buccaneers are ranked as the league’s 30th pass defense versus the opposing team’s #1 WR according to Football Outsider’s DVOA. You bet Jordy’s hands are still burning since he dropped that SURE 94-yard touchdown pass in the fourth quarter last week. Look for him to redeem himself in a big way.
Budweiser – Kenny Stills ($4,900)
It’s hard to decide between Stills and Colston this week but I have to go to the guy with the higher ceiling considering they’ve both got the same floor. Kenny wasn’t with the team yet in Week 1 when these two teams got together so he wasn’t able to exploit this secondary with his long-ball catching skills. For what it’s worth the Falcons are actually much better against opposing teams’ #1 WR and TE then they are against #2 or #3 WRs. I can see Stills breaking off a long one in the matchup.
Natural Light – Donte Moncrief ($2,000)
In tournament plays you have to cut corners somewhere and sometimes you’ve got to chase a guy who just goose egged with 4 targets the week before. Even without a catch last week he was in the offense for 15 more snaps then fellow WR Hakeem Nicks. Between Wayne’s arm and Hilton’s leg there will be some extra targets spread around to the other guys in the most potent passing offense in the NFL. If Hilton doesn’t play Sunday (hasn’t practiced up until Wednesday) Moncrief is definitely in almost all of my lineups.
Arrogant Bastard – Rob Gronkowski ($6,700)
This is most assuredly a Gronk week. He is $1k more expensive then the no. 2 TE but he would be the 13th ranked WR and I think his upside can afford that sort of salary. The Jets are very susceptible against the pass, allowing 29 TDs through the air this year and 12 of those have gone to tight ends. Rob has a very high floor and a high enough ceiling to plug into GPP play.
Budweiser – Jason Witten ($3,600)
The veteran tight end hasn’t had very many break out games this year but if you ignore a couple awful games by Tony Romo he has been more consistent then his numbers would suggest. The Cowboys get a Colts defense that has given up their fair share of huge games to opposing TEs. If DeMarco Murray is out there playing with that giant oven mitt he’s been practicing with then those check downs and underneath passes are going to have to go elsewhere. I can see a solid 8-60-1 line this weekend as Romo has to look to his big guy more often.
Natural Light – Charles Clay ($2,800)
Chuck Clay is our winner this week in the “I want to punt my TE position but I’d like some upside” play of the week. He’s been averaging a little under 7 targets in the last five weeks and has become Tannehill’s safety valve. If he can get us his usual 5 catches for 50 yards he’ll certainly pay for this minimal salary. If he finds his way into the end zone just call me a genius and move on.
Arrogant Bastard – Seahawks ($5,800)
Seattle’s streak of keeping opposing QBs under 150 yards has now grown to five straight weeks. In those last five games they have allowed only two passing touchdowns while snagging four INTs. This week they’ll go up against an Arizona team on it’s last leg of quarterbacks, as they’ll be starting Ryan Lindley. Lindley has an NFL record 181 passing attempts without a touchdown. The Seahawks floor is very, very high this week.
Budweiser – Giants ($3,900)
Big Blue has been riding quite the hot streak over the last month and they go into St Louis to face another defense that had been racking up the D/ST fantasy points as of late. There’s no reason to back off the Giants this week, the Rams’ O-Line ranks in the bottom-5 in the league according to Pro Football Focus. New York has totaled 7, 8 and 7 sacks over the last three weeks which should bode well against Shaun Hill who isn’t exactly a world beater as it is.
Natural Light – Bills ($3,900)
I realize these last two tiers are the exact same price, but hey, $3,900 is still pretty cheap! If you take out the two weeks Buffalo faced New England this year (37 and 42 points allowed) they’ve actually had a much more dominating season then you might have expected. Over the last two weeks they have held up very nicely against 2 of the best QBs in the league, keeping both Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers under 200 yards and forcing 4 INTs between them. The Bills and their NFL leading 49 sacks will travel to the left coast this weekend to face off against rookie Derek Carr and the Oakland offense averaging a mere 15 points a game.
Here’s how I’m going to incorporate my mixed bag of good, decent, and cheap beer bottles into a winning 9-pack:
QB Alex Smith
RB C.J. Anderson
RB Tre Mason
WR Jordy Nelson
WR Kenny Stills
TE Jason Witten
FLEX Matt Asiata
FLEX Joique Bell
Joique has had no problems getting his share of the load since Reggie Bush has been back and nobody has had any trouble moving the ball against the Bears so I’m more than fine with plugging him in. I’m less excited about Asiata but he’s definitely there for the right price and Miami’s rush defense has just been a shell of itself recently. If you think these are awful picks and would like to let me know how your lineup is better, feel free to comment below or holla at ya boy on twitter.
Good luck fantasy nerds, hope you’re rolling in profit soon, and if not remember: “That’s the way she goes. Sometimes she goes, sometimes it doesn’t. She didn’t go. That’s the way she goes.”