Two Quarterback Rankings Week 13 December 2, 2015  |  Chet


 
 
 

 
 
Let’s start off this week’s ranks with some who’s who. Quarterback A and B have each made three starts this season.

Quarterback A over his last three starts: 222 passing yards per game and four touchdowns.

Quarterback B over his last three starts: 256 passing yards per game and four touchdowns.

 

Quarterback A is on a team that is 9-2, and is 2-1 in his three starts.

Quarterback B is on a team that is 3-8, and is 1-2 in his three starts.

 

Quarterback A has faced the Chiefs, Bears, and Patriots.

Quarterback B has faced the Falcons, Seahawks, and Cardinals.

 

If you haven’t figured it out by now, quarterback A is Brock Osweiler, someone who many are high on simply because of the great situation he has stepped into. Quarterback B, on the other hand, is Blaine Gabbert, the butt of many jokes (including my own). Gabbert has not only out performed Osweiler in their three starts, but he’s down so on a significantly worse team against significantly better competition. What does this mean? I can’t really tell you. Maybe we shouldn’t be so quick to write someone off just because of the situation they’re currently in. I actually really like Gabbert this week if you need a dart throw QB2. He’s been a consistent QB2 over his three starts considering he has no offensive line, no defense, and no rushing attack against some elite pass defenses. This week he gets the Bears, who although they have improved as of late, are still struggling on defense. There’s also a shot that Gabbert benefits from some possible garbage time here if the Bears offense brings their A game.

 

Elite QB1s:

  1. Cam Newton (@ NO) – The Saints have been a sieve all year. This is about as clutch of a matchup as you can get if you have him and are fighting for a playoff spot.
  2. Tom Brady (vs PHI) – Has lost his top four receiving options this season, but you’re still riding this wave with confidence.
  3. Andy Dalton (@ CLE) – After some turbulence, Dalton has picked it back up, with five touchdowns over his last two games. The Browns (currently giving up the seventh most points to quarterbacks) don’t pose much of a concern.
  4. Ben Roethlisberger (vs IND) – Even with the turnovers, he’s been money. The Colts are an average matchup at best.
  5. Carson Palmer (@ STL) – Last week was his first without a passing score all season, and just his third game without at least two touchdowns. He also had his worst game of the season against the Rams in their previous matchup (which was still a nice 352/1/1).

Solid QB1s:

  1. Ryan Fitzpatrick (@ NYG) – He might be one of the most consistent and underrated quarterbacks in fantasy this year. Over his last six full starts, he’s scored no less than 17 points and faces a Giants secondary allowing the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
  2. Aaron Rodgers (@ DET)- The struggle is real; he’s only topped 20 points twice in his last eight games. Going against a Lions defense that has improved considerably as of late, Rodgers carries more risk than one might think.
  3. Jay Cutler (vs SF) – He’s cooled off his last two starts against some tougher opponents, but expect an improvement against the 49ers who have allowed the fourth most passing yards to date.

Fringe QB1s:

  1. Matthew Stafford (vs GB) – This seems like an obvious trap game after his five touchdown performance, but he’s been playing much better since the coaching change and he did throw two touchdowns against them three weeks ago.
  2. Eli Manning (vs NYJ) – The Jets have slipped recently on defense due to some injuries, and if they stand any chance in keeping this close, they will air it out.
  3. Blake Bortles (@ TEN) – Although he struggled against them two weeks ago, Bortles has managed to throw at least one touchdown in every game this season.
  4. Drew Brees (vs CAR) – Another brutal matchup after coming off his worst game of the season. Over the last 3 seasons, Brees has averaged 3.5 less points a game against the Panthers. The good news is there will be garbage time.
  5. Matt Ryan (@ TB) – It’s getting tougher and tougher to predict when he will hit/miss. I have a feeling this will be a hit week plus he threw nearly 400 yards against them last time they met.

Solid QB2s:

  1. Derek Carr (vs KC) – All he does is throw touchdowns. Last week marks his fifth multi score game over his last six. This is a tougher matchup but the loss of Justin Houston for the Chiefs is huge.
  2. Ryan Tannehill (vs BAL) – The Dolphins look to feature a more balanced offense after firing Bill Lazor, but that doesn’t mean Tannehill shouldn’t shred a struggling defense.
  3. Marcus Mariota (vs JAC) – Couldn’t get much done against them two weeks ago as a passer, but there’s a chance that changes this week after some adjustments.

Mid Level QB2s:

  1. Russell Wilson (@ MIN) – Last week’s performance was an aberration, and he just lost his top receiving weapon. Even coming off back to back elite games, I still don’t trust him as more than a QB2.
  2. Alex Smith (@ OAK) – While this seems like a great matchup for Smith, the fact is the Chiefs can run on just about anyone right now, even with their third string running back.
  3. Philip Rivers (vs DEN) – Rivers was able to rebound strongly last week, but with limited weapons and a highly suspect offensive line and rushing attack, Rivers has a pretty low floor.
  4. Brock Osweiler (@ SD) – It’s an average matchup that figures to set up better for the Denver rushing attack than Brock.

Low End QB2s:

  1. Jameis Winston (vs ATL) – The Falcons have allowed only 13 passing touchdowns on the year. Even though he held his own the last matchup, it’s still hard to trust him as anything more than a low end QB2.
  2. Matt Hasselbeck (@ PIT) – Hasselbeck has been remarkably consistent in his four starts (at least 15 points in all four), and now faces a soft Steelers defense.
  3. Brian Hoyer (@ BUF) – He’s been getting it done, but this is a high floor low ceiling type of game.
  4. Tyrod Taylor (vs HOU) – Houston has been the hottest defense in the NFL, and after allowing just six points to the Saints, I’m convinced Taylor will literally be running for his life. That helps his floor barring multiple turnovers, which wouldn’t shock me.
  5. Blaine Gabbert (@ CHI) – My favorite play this week if you need a quarterback. He’s quietly been solid (at least 16 points in all three starts) and faces a Bears defense that struggles at getting quarterbacks to turn the ball over.
  6. Kirk Cousins (vs DAL) – Like Bortles, he’s thrown at least one touchdown in every game, but has had a much lower floor. The Cowboys are allowing the eighth fewest points per game to quarterbacks and he’s scored a full 10 less points per game against top 16 ranked pass defenses.

Dumpster Diving:

  1. Matt Cassel (@ WAS)- The matchup isn’t bad, but he’s truly been a mixed bag in all sorts of opportunities this season.
  2. Johnny Manziel (@ CIN) – If he plays, I think you can do much worse if he’s available.
  3. Sam Bradford (@ NE) – He’ll be beat up in a tough matchup if he does play, but the thought of garbage time makes him mildly more attractive.
  4. Teddy Bridgewater (vs SEA) –He doesn’t throw touchdowns and the Seahawks don’t allow them. Avoid him any way you can.
  5. Austin Davis (@ CIN) – He’s a terrible real life quarterback, but not the worst fantasy option.
  6. Matt Schaub (@ MIA) – I don’t know what’s more sad; that every time I watch him play I expect a pick six, or that he actually throws one.
  7. Mark Sanchez (@ NE) –If you’re considering playing him, just remember his butt fumble came against the Patriots.
  8. Case Keenum (vs ARI) – Just no.

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