TFF Pre-Draft Rookie Mock Draft
April 28, 2015 | Chad Scott
Last weekend, I held a four-round rookie mock draft with a few of our Fake Football friends. If you’re not already, make sure and follow all these cats on the Twitter machine. Here’s the list of participants:
Matt Kelley – Creator of PlayerProfiler.com and mad-genius of the RotoUnderworld podcast
Rich Hribar – Writer for everyone, tied down to no one and the brains of The Faked Goods podcast
Matt Harmon – #ReceptionPerception is his baby…also, his dog is his baby. Writer for FootballGuys.com while freelancing at the Washington Post
Justin Huestis – Dynasty writer for UTHdynasty.com and longtime dynasty enthusiast. Hit him up for his #Nasty26 dynasty leagues
Matthew Freedman – Co-host of Rotoviz Radio with Jon Moore, writer for Rotoviz.com and The Workhorse RB metric guy
Pat Thorman – Award-winning writer at ProFootballFocus.com and has been pitching elevators since the AFL
Davis Mattek – The soft-spoke young gun doing everything he can to stay under the radar. DFS degenerate who actually makes money in most sports and hopefully returning behind the mic for the Sports Wunderkind podcast
*Draft slots were randomly selected
|1.01||@RyanMc23||Todd Gurley, RB Georgia|
|1.02||@Fantasy_Mansion||Amari Cooper, WR Alabama|
|1.03||@EvanSilva||Kevin White, WR West Virginia|
|1.04||@LordReebs||Dorial Green-Beckham, WR Mizzou/Oklahoma|
|1.05||@RumfordJohnny||Jay Ajayi, RB Boise St.|
|1.06||@MattHarmon_BYB||Melvin Gordon, RB Wisconsin|
|1.07||@JustInTimeNFL||DeVante Parker, WR Louisville|
|1.08||@MattFtheOracle||Tevin Coleman, RB Indiana|
|1.09||@Pat_Thorman||Jaelen Strong, WR Arizona St.|
|1.10||@DavisMattek||Breshad Perriman, WR Central Florida|
|1.11||@Chad_Scott13||Ameer Abdullah, RB Nebraska|
|1.12||@Jeff_Brubach||TJ Yeldon, RB Alabama|
1.01 @RyanMc23: Todd Gurley
I know the case is not strong for recent consensus top RBs, but I’m convinced Gurley is different. A top 5 dynasty RB already.
I won’t argue any one of Gurley, Cooper or White at 1.01, but I tend to side with Ryan on this one… rarely will I ever waste a 1.01 rookie pick on a rookie, but Gurley is who we thought he was – a transcendent talent at a position in complete dynasty flux.
1.02 @Fantasy_Mansion: Amari Cooper
*in the slightest whisper: Amari… Amari… Amari… i stare agape at Amari Cooper smoothly gliding into a glimmering nexus of euphoric anecdotal and analytical fantasy football analysis. I click “make draft pick” and am filled with a warmth and a clarity that can only be described as love.
Can’t go wrong with Cooper here as he’s probably the safest with highest floor in the class.. also, I’ll have what Matt’s having.
1.03 @EvanSilva: Kevin White
Big, fast, extremely physical. Runs over people. Catches everything. Great body control. Can play multiple receiver positions. Yoked up and powerful. Refuses to be tackled. Max-effort player. Dominant contested-catch winner. Plays with fire. Hot fire. Born to ball.
It puts the lotion on its skin or it gets the hose… I’m with Evan. White at 1.03 seems absurd, like this draft class.
1.04 @LordReebs: Dorial Green-Beckham
There’s a lot of quantifiable overlap in terms of measurables and production in the top two tiers of receivers and one unique superhuman. He’s not without risk here, but all we need from DGB is just one team to invest significant draft capital into him and the wheels are up on possibly the highest ceiling in this entire class at any position.
Praying DGB gets drafted by the Seahawks. Somehow, someway…
1.05 @RumfordJohnny: Jay Ajayi
WR seems pretty deep with Y/Z types at this point, but few workhorse backs are on the board. Without the benefit of a known landing spot, I think Ajayi is explosive and a well-rounded RB. Both Gordon and Yeldon are high on the list, but scheme dependent.
We began this draft before the Ajayi knee news surfaced… Draft capital will loom large when viewing Ajayi in dynasty. If he’s picked early Day Two, everyone jumps back on… except Mansion, apparently -__-
1.06 @MattHarmon_BYB: Melvin Gordon
Here we are at the first pick, and I’m already feeling uncomfortable. Wonderful. The sixth spot represents an odd hole to land in; none of my top three receivers are here and the best running is also gone. I ended up siding with Melvin Gordon over DeVante Parker, almost simply for the likely immediate impact. I can envision several scenarios taking place where Parker takes some time to get his career going, where Gordon could hit the ground running. If my pick ends up finding his way into the Dallas backfield, I’ll be just fine with this selection, even though I am far from his biggest supporter.
Beautifully put and not an ideal slot to pick in if you’re neither a Gordon or Parker apologist.
1.07 @JustInTimeNFL: DeVante Parker
Obvious pick for me IMO. I love Parker here. He’s my WR3 who is making a strong push to be my WR2 for this draft class.
Speaking of Parker fanboys… while I don’t love Parker the prospect, I’m definitely on the Parker < Strong < Perriman wagon(s)…
1.08 @MattFtheOracle: Tevin Coleman
On the Faked Goods pod I recently said that Tevin Coleman was my No. 3 RB, and I also said that this is the year to draft as many rookie RBs as possible. Picking Coleman at No. 8 is just me sticking to my guns. RBs who weigh over 205 lbs., run the 40 in under 4.40 seconds, and produce 2,000-yard rushing seasons are rare.
And with this pick, a single tear drops from the face of RotoUnderworld. I’m not a huge Coleman fan, but he’s Freedman’s RB1 and I used to tout Isaiah Pead, so….
1.09 @Pat_Thorman: Jaelen Strong
Big, fast, explosive, and young. He wins at the catch point and his game still has room to grow. If he gets picked later in the 1st by a good team with a QB who will throw him open like Baltimore, he’ll be cooking right away.
Strong seems the most polarizing of these WR prospects… while I agree with Pat’s assessment, I’d rather see him used somewhere in need of a slot receiver – and I’m not alone on this.
1.10 @DavisMattek: Breshad Perriman
Without the expectation of being a 1st or 2nd round pick, there is no way Perriman gets this high on my board but here we are. I tend to fall in love with the uber athletes and Perriman is the uberiest who actually played (sorry Chris Conley).
The most Davis pick for sure, but makes complete sense when we’re getting into the latter stages of the first round. Has the measurables AND production to make for a ceiling on somewhere on the moon.
1.11 @Chad_Scott13: Ameer Abdullah
It was between this dude and someone else perhaps. AA a tad higher on my board :)
Still my RB2 in this class – just read the article, maybe?
1.12 @Jeff_Brubach: T.J. Yeldon
The second tier of RBs will all be dependent on landing spots in the draft. With the number of RB needy teams in the league right now, there should be a few backs like Yeldon available here in the late 1st who could chip in this season.
I’ll be very interested to see where Yeldon lands this week. Will probably make the biggest RB jump if situation is fire.
|2.01||@RyanMc23||Nelson Algholor, USC|
|2.02||@Fantasy_Mansion||Jamies Winston, QB Florida St.|
|2.03||@EvanSilva||Duke Johnson, RB Miami|
|2.04||@LordReebs||Devin Funchess, WR Michigan|
|2.05||@RumfordJohnny||Chris Conley, WR Georgia|
|2.06||@MattHarmon_BYB||Devin Smith, WR Ohio St.|
|2.07||@JustInTimeNFL||David Johnson, RB Northern Iowa|
|2.08||@MattFtheOracle||Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon|
|2.09||@Pat_Thorman||Maxx Williams, TE Minnesota|
|2.10||@DavisMattek||Devante Davis, WR UNLV|
|2.11||@Chad_Scott13||DeAndre Smelter, WR Georgia Tech|
|2.12||@Jeff_Brubach||Sammie Coates, WR Auburn|
2.01 @RyanMc23: Nelson Agholor
I’m not quite as sold as many others, but he can do lots of things very well and a nice landing spot likely means he does not fall to the 2nd of rookie drafts.
Stealing at 2.01. Algohor is 4.5 in Rich and my rankings – tied with Parker. Could be a PPR machine and adds a cherry on top in return yardage leagues.
2.02 @Fantasy_Mansion: Jameis Winston
Yeah, I know he threw a lot of picks one year, so sue me.
I understand Matt’s take on the imminent shortage of QB1s in dynasty and agree, but JJ Zachariason has tainted my mind.
2.03 @EvanSilva: Duke Johnson
Reminds of early-career Frank Gore. A natural. Maybe the best pass-catching back in this class. “Small” for a feature back but can run inside and break tackles. Consistently finishes runs. Slippery and scrappy. Can grind and break big plays. Decisive. Superb vision. Excellent stiff arm. May be drafted to be a committee back, but will prove very difficult to take off the field. Lead RB early in his pro career.
Love Duke and think he’s a slight arbitrage play on Abdullah. Most decisive back in this class and his decisions tend yield chunk yardage.
2.04 @LordReebs: Devin Funchess
Funchess is an enigma boxed in a riddle wrapped in a conundrum. The lows may inevitably outweigh the highs in the end, but at this cost a lot of his floor is priced out.
Rich is lucky this is a mock draft… my unnatural love for Funchess knows no bounds and at 2.04, certainly taking any risk out of the equation.
2.05 @RumfordJohnny: Chris Conley
Higher in my rankings than most, but I think his ability transcends his production. Willing to take the L if I’m wrong.
And only one catchable drop last year *sips tea*
2.06 @MattHarmon_BYB: Devin Smith
If you are familiar with my work, my selection of Devin Smith here should be of no surprise. Smith posted some wild Reception Perception scores, and a player whose translation I am very confident in. Normally, rookie deep threats are a turn off in dynasty, but Smith bucks the trend. His vertical game artistry is one of the best I have seen, and he’s shown more than enough signs of the ability to develop into a complete receiver. Personally, I think getting him this late is thievery.
Matt and Rich convinced me I was missing something on Smith on The Faked Goods and they were right. One of, if not the best ball trackers in this draft. Could be special and one of the bigger dynasty steals at his current sticker price.
2.07 @JustInTimeNFL: David Johnson
Running Backs who catch really well will almost always have a job in the NFL. Johnson is an ex-receiver and that SHOWS in his play. AND He’s a bigger back who blew up the combine. Sign me up!
Still learning the position and it shows in his run style, but dude really can catch and if the Ravens and Trestman get their hands on him…. whew
2.08 @MattFtheOracle: Marcus Mariota
It was between Mariota and a couple other players, but I think that Mariota’s upside is immense and his downside is good Andy Dalton. His combination of completion percentage, Y/A, low INT rate, and rushing production is rare. The fact that he’s a good athlete is just a bonus.
I’m glad others are jumping on the grenades that are the QBs, but 2.08 seems about right, especially for owners in need of an heir.
2.09 @Pat_Thorman: Maxx Williams
Late-2nd is a sweet spot for the clear top TE in this class. Production compares favorably to recent top TEs who were drafted higher. He’s sliding because rookie TEs take time to produce but Maxx will reward the patient.
There’s Maxx and then there’s meh at TE this year, aside from some fun dart throws (Hi, MyCole Pruitt). Williams fills a need as the TE landscape is basically anyone with upside.
2.10 @DavisMattek: Devante Davis
A top 5 talent in this class, with 2 seasons of > .35 DR rating, who is taller than 6’3 and weighs more than 220. Insane that he is going after Devin Smith.
Love this pick by Davis here. DD becomes an immediate red-zone threat out of the gates.
2.11 @Chad_Scott13: Deandre Smelter
DeAndre Smelter is basically my precious… And no ones else’s may haves my precious.
2.12 @Jeff_Brubach: Sammie Coates
Hoping his hands catch up with the rest of his talent, but a decent stab to take at this point in the draft.
I don’t fault Bru for taking Coates here… after all, I need my paycheck at the end of the month.
|3.01||@RyanMc23||David Cobb, RB Minnesota|
|3.02||@Fantasy_Mansion||Phillip Dorsett. WR Miami|
|3.03||@EvanSilva||Zach Zenner, RB South Dakota St.|
|3.04||@LordReebs||Mike Davis, RB South Carolina|
|3.05||@RumfordJohnny||Tre McBride, WR William & Mary|
|3.06||@MattHarmon_BYB||Kenny Bell, WR Nebraska|
|3.07||@JustInTimeNFL||Tyler Lockett, WR Kansas St.|
|3.08||@MattFtheOracle||Javorius Allen, RB USC|
|3.09||@Pat_Thorman||Josh Robinson, RB Mississippi St.|
|3.10||@DavisMattek||Jeremy Langford, RB Michigan St.|
|3.11||@Chad_Scott13||Rashad Greene, WR Florida St.|
|3.12||@Jeff_Brubach||Justin Hardy, WR East Carolina|
3.01 @RyanMc23: David Cobb
Really underrated right now. I like several other guys in the 3rd round range, but can see Cobb contributing from day 1.
I’m a bit surprised Cobb lasted this long, but his Combine/Pro Day numbers did nothing to help him. While he’s not a metrics darling, Cobb is exactly what you want in a consistent RB.
3.02 @Fantasy_Mansion: Phillip Dorsett
People of earth, the hugely productive x-field stretcher prototype with 4.3 afterburners is in alarmingly short supply. To save our species, we must draft Phillip Dorsett whose athletic profile fits well on most rosters and should start scoring long touchdowns immediately. The human race is grateful.
LOL ^^^^ I have nothing to add…
3.03 @EvanSilva: Zach Zenner
Designed specifically to tilt Reebs.
And tilt it did. Zenner is a Faked Goods favorite, compliments of Rich. Fully entrenched as Reebs’ RB5 for now, Zenner and his dynasty stock will have to rely on capital as well (for now). I almost don’t want him drafted so he can be picked up for nothing when he’s signed as an UDFA.
3.04 @LordReebs: Mike Davis
Would’ve taken Lockett here if I would’ve taken the time to really look at the player pool, but was on Zenner tilt from Evan.
FullTilt.com… Davis is a tale of two tapes – his 2013 an his 2014. If he’s Mike Davis 2013 for a third round draft tag, you literally won’t be able to eff up your draft.
3.05 @RumfordJohnny: Tre McBride
Miss out on Cooper & Agholor? This is your guy.
McBride’s love affair has cooled off a bit, but it shouldn’t. Dude will produce in the NFL and those who draft him will be rewarded.
3.06 @MattHarmon_BYB: Kenny Bell
Kenny Bell probably intrigues me from a “real life” NFL perspective than for fantasy, but at this late point in the draft, he’s a pretty safe dart to throw. Bell has refinement and excitement to his game, meaning he could see the field more than expected early. In the right situation, he’ll really surprise some people.
I hate you… probably the nastiest blocker in this class of receivers and can eat up a CB once he flips that NOS switch.
3.07 @JustInTimeNFL: Tyler Lockett
After blowing up the senior bowl practices, his buzz cooled down. Great route runner and great football player. Might not have the ceiling like others but love I think his game translates and he’ll have value pretty quickly.
I keep seeing these names drafted into the third round and can’t believe the talent pool it is providing. Lockett might not be the big name, but those searching ESPN for advice will know it soon enough.
3.08 @MattFtheOracle: Javorius Allen
I was hoping that Lockett would make it here, as I strongly considered him in the second round. As it is, I’m good with getting Javorius “The Sith Lord” Allen in the second half of the third round. Big and adequately fast RBs who can catch the ball are precious commodities. He’s not Jeremy Hill – but he’s the arbitrage version of Hill.
Love me some Buck. Might not play like his physical profile suggests, but is a plus receiver out of the backfield. Needs to find a home where RBs are utilized in pass game to stay rookie relevant… still my RB10 til D-Day doe.
3.09 @Pat_Thorman: Josh Robinson
Davis, Zenner, and Buck Allen were in my queue, so on to the next RB. Robinson runs hard and is very elusive. Compact and tough to tackle, he shows burst through the hole, and is a little underrated.
3.10 @DavisMattek: Jeremy Langford
One of my favorite RB’s in this class. He split carries with the also-talented Nick Hill his final season at Michigan State but he’s big, fast enough and seems (to me) a likely candidate to get carries as a rookie.
3.11 @Chad_Scott13: Rashad Greene
So smooth, yet so small… I can’t deny his ACC accolades and believe he’s another PPR monster in the right situation.
3.12 @Jeff_Brubach: Justin Hardy
Essentially the opposite of my 2nd round pick with less physical skills but better hands than Coates. Also considered Diggs here.
It just makes me happy you didn’t take Diggs, tbh…
Round Four (without comment)
|4.01||@RyanMc23||Stefon Diggs, WR Maryland|
|4.02||@Fantasy_Mansion||Karlos Williams, RB Florida St.|
|4.03||@EvanSilva||Malcolm Brown, RB Texas|
|4.04||@LordReebs||Brett Hundley, QB UCLA|
|4.05||@RumfordJohnny||Terrell Watson, RB Azuza Pacific|
|4.06||@MattHarmon_BYB||Tony Lippett, WR Michigan St.|
|4.07||@JustInTimeNFL||Clive Walford, TE Miami|
|4.08||@MattFtheOracle||Ty Montgomery, WR Stanford|
|4.09||@Pat_Thorman||Darren Waller, WR Georiga Tech|
|4.10||@DavisMattek||Titus Davis, WR Central Michigan|
|4.11||@Chad_Scott13||Dezmin Lewis, WR Central Arkansas|
|4.12||@Jeff_Brubach||Bryce Petty, QB Baylor|
4.01 @RyanMc23: Stefon Diggs
I don’t like Diggs all that much, but will take a shot in the 4th round. He was considered a 1st round rookie pick a year ago.
4.02 @Fantasy_Mansion: Karlos Williams
114.2 (94th percentile) speed score… um, thanks? p.s. preferred Terrell Watson if he was actually an option on the MFL platform.
4.03 @EvanSilva: Malcolm Brown
Brown is a bit of a plodder, but he can break tackles and play on passing downs. I think he could have an Andre Brown-like career as an occasional third-down back and spot starter.
4.04 @LordReebs: Brett Hundley
Most of my favorite late round tickets are off of the board, so I feel like this is a good spot to take a chance on Hundley’s athleticism and constant improvement year to year leading to future success. He really shows up as undervalued by the league in nearly every area I look at for in future QB fantasy production.
4.05 @RumfordJohnny: Terrell Watson
Sweet timing on that Ajayi blurb. Since his knee is shredded like coleslaw, I’ll take a flier on Terrell Watson (not listed). Big, fast, small school wrecking ball. Next time, check your email, Kelley.
4.06 @MattHarmon_BYB: Tony Lippett
I thought about going really off-script and taking a shot on Darius Davis here, but went with a player I grew to like later in the process. Tony Lippett has a weird, off-putting way of running routes, but he gets open and jived well with an oft-appalling quarterback in college. If Lippett gets with an improvisational quarterback, he could turn out to be something.
4.07 @JustInTimeNFL: Clive Walford
Like (not love) him as a player. NFL has a strong need for TEs. He’ll likely get overdrafted by the NFL and get a decent shot.
4.08 @MattFtheOracle: Ty Montgomery
There are lots of under-the-radar RBs I could draft, but I’ll take a shot on the big-and-athletic WR with hidden potential. In 2013, he had over 1,000 scrimmage yards and averaged one TD per game. I think he’ll be no worse than a fourth-round pick, which makes him draftable.
4.09 @Pat_Thorman: Darren Waller
Pickings got slim down here but Waller is at least really big, fast, and explosive. A long shot and his landing spot will determine FF viability, but he’s worth a shot based on raw tools.
4.10 @DavisMattek: Titus Davis
13 touchdowns in his senior season. He’s small and I wanted to take Waller, but this former Central Michigan Chippewa as the requisite production and athleticism for an NFL career.
4.11 @Chad_Scott13: Dezmin Lewis
Was hoping Ty Montgomery or Darren Waller somehow fell to me here but I’ll snag Dezmin Lewis instead….
4.12 @Jeff_Brubach: Bryce Petty
Wrapping this draft up with a QB that may take some development time, but can chuck the ball with the best of them.
There it is and we are just a few days away from the ACTUAL NFL draft! These gents have been kind enough to participate in a Post-Draft Rookie mock as well, so look for that next week. We’ll keep the same people and same draft slots to show how little (or big) draft landing spot are for a lot of these rookies.
Thanks for reading and rip us to shreds in the comment section!