Streaming Spotlight – Week 13 QB & TE
December 1, 2016 | Chris Manni
Welcome to the Week 13 edition of the QB/TE Streaming Spotlight! Since we last talked, I have worked on enhancing my “Dad bod” transformation by crushing many delicious turkey dinners, scrumptious pies, and washing those down with some Scottish single malt 16 year Lagavulin scotch. In addition to my consumption frenzy, I’ve locked down a few more playoff spots. Hopefully, you can say the same of the latter and only some of the former. As we do each and every week, here are the Week 13 deeper QB and TE streaming options with players who are less than 50% owned on NFL.com. Good luck this week my good people…may you taste the sweet taste of the fantasy football playoffs.y
Don’t forget to check out our DFS Cheat Sheets!
Colin Kaepernick (Ownership on NFL.com 10.8%) at CHI
If you have been reluctant to believe in Kap’s fantasy value, you have to after Week 12. Despite game flow and matchup concerns across the country for an early game in Miami, Kap dominated. As a matter of fact, over the last four weeks, he ranks as the second most productive quarterback behind only Aaron Rodgers. During this time, we discussed Kap as a high-floor, high-ceiling streaming option. Now, we simply need to acknowledge that he is an elite QB1 option for the rest of the year. He is criminally under owned on NFL.com and if he is still available in your league, put the highest priority/free agent bid you can on him. Even if you have elite QB options such as Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, etc., you should consider blocking him from teams that didn’t invest a high pick on those studs and have been late to the party. Speaking of a party, I expect the gravy train to keep chugging along for Kap in Week 12. The 49ers travel to Chicago where the Bears have been decimated by injuries and suspensions. Without key linebackers Jerrell Freeman (suspension) and Danny Trevathan (ruptured patellar tendon), I expect Kap to be able to move ball at will as he has over the last four weeks.
Bottom Line: Consider Kaepernick a mid-range QB1 with a high floor and high potential because of his running production. I would start him over Matt Ryan vs KC, Russell Wilson vs CAR, and Derek Carr vs BUF.
Alex Smith (22.1%) vs ATL
I consider Smith the “anti-Kaepernick” in 2016 with only 56 rushing yards on 27 carries. Historically, Smith has raised his floor with his running ability, but we simply haven’t seen it. One cure for that low floor and low ceiling is a date in the dome with the Falcons. The Falcons have struggled for most of the year on defense, ranking in the bottom third of Football Outsider’s DVOA metrics. Additionally, they have been particularly generous to quarterbacks recently by allowing the 3rd most points to signal callers in the last four weeks. Lastly, Atlanta’s offense tends to encourage their opponents to engage in a full blown offensive attack. Armed with Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Spencer Ware, Smith will be able to oblige them. For us, this means lots of potential fantasy points in Hot-Lanta.
Bottom Line: Consider Smith a mid-range QB2 in Week 13 with a good floor. However, he lacks the potential to singlehandedly lead your team to victory.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (7.6%) vs IND
While watching the Jets/Pats game last week, I was having a hard time deciphering whether Fitzpatrick was playing well or the Pats’ defense was that bad. In this case, it is probably somewhere in the middle. This leads me to streaming Mr. Fitzmagic in Week 13. On Monday night, the Colts come to MetLife and I expect a high scoring affair. With Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton expected to return, the Colts should have no issue throwing all over this Jets’ defense. Similar to the Atlanta/Kansas City game, if one offense should find success scoring points, the opposition must react in kind. Even though Fitzpatrick is the antithesis of reliable, I am willing to roll the dice with him against the third worst pass defense according to the DVOA metric and the second most generous pass defense in the last four weeks.
Bottom Line: I have Fitzpatrick ranked one spot below Smith. Fitzpatrick has the lowest of floors, but the potential reward is higher. In two QB leagues, he could put you over the top if you dare.
Bye Week: Marcus Mariota (if for some reason he is dropped during the bye week, put a priority on picking him up for the playoffs), Josh McCown/Cody Kessler/Robert Griffin III
Eric Ebron (20.7%) vs MIN
Last week I asked “what does this man have to do to get his ownership up!?” Well, he responded emphatically to my question by a laying a steaming goose egg on Thanksgiving Day. That was as frustrating as someone putting cranberries, raisins, and apples in the turkey stuffing. There is no place in this world for that type of rubbish. I’m calming down now and moving past that debacle into Week 13 when Ebron gets his shot at redemption in New Orleans. There are three major reasons why I’m excited to buy into Ebron shares this week. First, the New Orleans defense has been the sixth most generous to tight ends during the last four weeks and ranks in the bottom ten in the DVOA metric. Secondly, before last week’s disappearance, Ebron’s usage since his return from injury was at a top-five tight end level. Lastly, anyone who has watched football in the Superdome this year knows that a shootout is about to commence. The game has the highest Vegas total of the week at 53.5 and the Lions don’t have the defense to stop the Saints. Therefore, expect the Lions to respond in kind with an aerial show of their own; after last week, look for Stafford to get Ebron the ball early and often in this matchup.
Bottom Line: I have Ebron as the sixth ranked tight end this week. I would play Ebron over other high end options such as Kyle Rudolph vs DAL and Antonio Gates vs TB.
C.J. Fiedorowicz (10.6%) at GB
Since the Texans’ bye, Fiedorowicz’s production has slowed down, but his opportunities have not. Over the last three weeks, he has averaged seven targets, for 4.3 catches and 50 yards per game. While these numbers are not knocking anyone out of their seat, it is stable production at a position that has been a nothing short of a hot mess in 2016. In Week 13, the Texans travel to Lambeau field to take on a Packers’ defense that has been the most generous to tight ends over the last four weeks. While I have no faith in Brock Osweiler, it is clear that he has faith in Fiedorowicz. In 2016, Brock has his highest QB rating when throwing to the big man out of Iowa. Given the limited options this week at the tight end position because of injuries and bye weeks, I’m willing to roll with C.J. if I’m in a pinch.
Bottom Line: Consider Fiedorowicz a low end TE1 with a good floor and good potential this week given his matchup. For the rest of the year, his opportunity and production warrant higher ownership than 10.6%.
Bye Week: Delanie Walker, Gary Barnidge
I have enjoyed fantasy sports for over twenty years and now enjoy sharing my thoughts with you fine folks. Follow me @chrismanniff on Twitter.