2013 Fantasy Football

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Start/Sit Week 12

posted by Mike Braude

START

 

QB: Colin Kaepernick at WAS – Despite his inability to put up consistent QB1 numbers, Kaepernick has been solid in plus matchups. The 49ers need this game and face a reeling Redskins defense that has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three of their last four games. For streamers there are lots of options, I like Eli Manning, Case Keenum, Josh McCown and Alex Smith. Keep those guys in mind when picking a FanDuel team – they present solid matchups combined with a cheap salary.

RB: Matt Forte at STL – Obviously Matt Forte is a must-start; I have him up here because he is my RB1 for Week 11. Daily Fantasy Players take note. Facing a Rams defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to nfl_a_zstacy_jh_300x200opposing running backs, Forte is in for a monster day. In Week 9, Chris Johnson ran 23 times for 150 yards and two touchdowns against this defense.

Zac Stacy vs. CHI – Although he struggled against the Colts, Zac Stacy is averaging 26 carries for 108 rushing yards and a touchdown over his last three games. This week he draws arguably his most favorable matchup since taking over as the Rams workhorse. The Bears have allowed 120+ rushing yards to opposing running backs in five straight games. Last week they helped Ray Rice break out of his yearlong slump.

Andre Brown vs. DAL – Back into game shape, Andre Brown draws his best matchup of the season. On Sunday Night football, everyone watched the Cowboys’ run defense get shredded by the Saints for 244 yards and three touchdowns after losing stud linebacker Sean Lee. The Cowboys are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs and allowing a dreadful 4.82 yards per carry.

Shane Vereen vs. DEN – For the second time this season out of two opportunities, Vereen showed why he is so important to the Patriots. The Patriots know he is an ideal fit for their Kevin Faulk/Danny Woodhead role. They consistently try to get him matched up with linebackers where he is a nightmare to defend. Vereen will continue to be used more heavily in games where the Patriots are behind and play pass-heavy. We can count on that happening against the Broncos.

WR: Vincent Jackson at DET – Another obvious must-start, Vincent Jackson is on here because I believe he will put up huge numbers this week. Opposing receivers, like Antonio Brown last week, have shred the Lions. Over their last four games, the Lions have given up 50 catches for 873 yards and 10 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers.

Torrey Smith vs. NYJ – Despite a lackluster 78 receiving yards, Torrey Smith has scored a touchdown in each of his last two games. The only truly reliable pass-catcher on the Ravens will get plenty of opportunities against a burnable Jets’ secondary. Over their last three games, the Jets have allowed 38 catches for 661 yards and six touchdowns to opposing wide receivers.

Kendall Wright at OAK – Although he doesn’t have much of a nose for the end zone, Kendall Wright has been a pleasant surprise in PPR leagues. Since Week 1, Wright has at least five catches in eight of nine games. This week he faces a weak Raiders’ secondary that has been favorable to opposing wide receivers. At a ridiculous $5,400, he’s a solid FanDuel value this week.

Dwayne Bowe vs. SD – Despite the fact that many disagreed with me when I put Bowe on here last time, the outcome was good – Bowe had his best game of the season catching seven passes for 67 yards and he could’ve had a much bigger day had he not dropped a few passes. In no way am I a Bowe believer, but with the right matchup he can take advantage. This week he faces a Chargers’ defense that has given up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers out of defenses playing this week. At $5,000, he’s also a solid FanDuel value this week.

TE: Coby Fleener at AZ – With depleted weapons, Andrew Luck has needed to look to Coby Fleener more consistently – leading to an eight reception, 107-yard performance last Thursday night. This week he faces a Cardinals’ defense that has struggled mightily to defend tight ends. They’ve allowed the most receptions (65), yards (886), and touchdowns (10) to opposing tight ends.

 

SIT

 

QB: Matt Ryan vs. NO – If you look at Matt Ryan’s stats, it is apparent that the Julio Jones injury has negatively impacted him – in a big way. Over his last four games, Ryan has a TD-to-INT ratio of 5:9. While still a good quarterback, his lack of weapons is hurting him a lot – similar to Colin Kaepernick. Although some owners may be thinking he’ll be worth playing in a shootout against the Saints, I’m here to advise you otherwise. The Saints are allowing the 3rd fewest points to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed just 11 passing touchdowns all season.

RB: Trent Richardson at AZ – I’ve officially given up hope for Trent, as he’s either lacking talent or just a complete misfit for the Colts scheme. Only time can answer that question, but he remains unstartable at the point. With just 21 carries in his last three games, Richardson faces the defense that is allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.rsz_rice

Ray Rice vs. NYJ – Because of how bad the Bears’ run defense has been, I already don’t buy Rice’s big game. Now he faces a Jets’ defense that has allowed the second fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Jets will attempt to make this the third straight game of holding opposing running backs below 50 rushing yards.

Chris Ivory at BAL – Although I do believe that Chris Ivory is the Jets’ best running back, it’s hard for him to produce against great run defenses. Ivory needs to score touchdowns to be effective in fantasy because of his lack of pass game involvement. This week he faces a Ravens’ defense that has allowed just one rushing touchdown all season. Combine that with the fact that they’re allowing just 3.77 yards per carry to opposing running backs and I’d leave Ivory on the bench.

WR: Steve Smith at MIA – Yet to have over 69 receiving yards in any game this season, Smith has become a touchdown dependent wide receiver. The Panthers have moved away from taking vertical shots to their top receiver and it has hurt his fantasy value. Without a touchdown in his last four games, I wouldn’t bet on him scoring against a Dolphins’ defense that has allowed one touchdown to a wide receiver all season.

Mike Wallace vs. CAR – With 31 sacks on the season, the Panthers have shown that they have a very strong pass rush. Ryan Tannehill, on the other hand, has taken a league high 41 sacks this season. I wouldn’t bet on Tannehill finding Wallace deep against the Carolina pass rush. I’d rather bet on the Carolina defense.

Rod Streater vs. TEN – Even with the breakout game last week, Streater isn’t a good bet against the defense that allows the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Titans have been very stingy to opposing wide outs so let’s not let one big week from Streater fool us.

TE: Martellus Bennett at STL – While St. Louis is an atrocious defense, they have guarded opposing tight ends well. Allowing the 2nd fewest points to opposing tight ends, the Rams haven’t allowed over 47 yards or a touchdown to an opposing team’s tight ends in six games.

 

Thanks for reading, good luck this week. Hit me up on Twitter @BraudeM or post below for any lineup questions you guys have!

 

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Mike Braude

When he's not searching for ways to defeat his opponents, Mike Braude spends his time finding ways to remove the randomness of fantasy football and reward the most skilled fantasy owners. He has remedied this issue by creating Apex Fantasy Football Money Leagues.
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7 Comments

  • Need to drop one: Bobby Rainey, Joique Bell, T.Richardson, Terrance Williams

    Background: 12-team Yahoo PPR league (2RB, 2WR, 1 W/R/T flex), currently in 2nd place, have depth at RB (Stacy, A.Brown, Woodhead, F.Jax, in addition to above), WR not quite as deep, but T.Will is WR4 of bunch.

    Team in 3rd place has R.Bush. Do I hang onto Bell to protect other top team from picking up as handcuff?

  • AZ vs. Ind or NE vs. Den. I’m pretty sure the clear choice is AZ!
    Thanks!

    • Yes out of those two, AZ is the one.

  • Flex spot: Cecil Shorts, Shane Vereen, or Leveon Bell?

    0.5 PPR

    Cecil Shorts complained about targets last game and squeaky wheel gets greased, etc, but its against Houston.

    Leveon Bell gets like 20 touches a game but Cleveland has allowed 1 rushing TD over the past 5 weeks.

    Shane Vereen, well I don’t know much about him other than he got 11 targets while only playing 50% of the snaps last week.

  • standard scoring league. start 2 rbs and 2 wrs and a flex. a.d-mjd-and vereen andre johnson, garcon, j.gordon and torrey smith. Im thinking start a.d. and vereen and starting johnson gordon and flexing smith. garcon has been hot but 49ers defense and rg3’s ups and downs scare me! what do you think?

    • Really close one – totally understand where you’re going. I find myself leaning towards benching Torrey Smith but there’s minimal difference between Gordon/Smith/Garcon. Any of them that you decide to bench could come back to hurt you, they’re all solid #1s.

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