Start/Sit Week 12
November 20, 2014 | Mike Braude
Colin Kaepernick vs. WAS
Last week the Redskins confirmed they were a stream-worthy opposing defense by allowing Josh McCown to pass for 288 yards and two touchdowns on just 23 attempts. In ten games this season, the Redskins have allowed 20 passing touchdowns while intercepting just three passes. They are allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. While Kaepernick has struggled lately, he’s still worth a stream against this dreadful secondary.
LeSean McCoy vs. TEN
Only one team can fix LeSean McCoy’s struggles and that’s the Tennessee Titans. Over their last three games, opposing running backs have averaged 33.3 carries for 185.7 rushing yards (5.58 YPC), and 1.7 touchdowns. Fresh off a drubbing from Le’Veon Bell, the Titans are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Isaiah Crowell at ATL
With Ben Tate gone, the Browns backfield is down to a two-man timeshare. Terrance West is likely to see more time in the pass-game, while Crowell handles more carries. I prefer Crowell as he has outpaced West in yards per carry for the season: 4.6 to 3.6, respectively. Despite their recent effectiveness against the bad rushing offenses of the Buccaneers and Panthers, I still see the Falcons as a highly exploitable matchup. They’ve allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Denard Robinson at IND
After getting decimated by Jonas Gray, it’s apparent that the Colts run defense is exploitable. They’re currently allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Denard Robinson has taken full advantage of the Jaguars lead back role and he can expect to see a minimum 15 touches against a bad Colts run defense.
Josh Gordon at ATL
Although he hasn’t played this season, Josh Gordon comes in fresh and ready to “tear this league up.” Gordon is a special talent and must be in lineups any time he is active. The Browns would be silly to put him on a snap count. The Falcons have been a favorable matchup and are allowing the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Keenan Allen vs. STL
After scoring eight touchdowns last season, Keenan Allen has just one touchdown this season. While he’s settled in as a better PPR option than standard, I do believe he’s due to regress – he’s simply too good of a player, on too good of an offense, to end this season with such a low number of touchdowns. Don’t shy away from starting Allen against a Rams defense that is allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Justin Hunter at PHI
For those with daunting matchups, Justin Hunter provides a boom-or-bust play. He carries big upside against a poor Eagles secondary that is allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Eagles have allowed seven touchdowns to wide receivers in their last four games. The problem with Hunter is he also has a very low floor. If you’re feeling risky, he’s an interesting play.
Larry Donnell vs. DAL
With so few reliable tight ends, Larry Donnell has become a reasonable TE1. He has at least four catches or a touchdown in each of his past four games. This week the Giants face a Cowboys defense that is allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in what figures to be a game that they are playing from behind.
Matt Ryan vs. CLE
While the Browns have struggled against the run, they’ve defended the pass well. They have allowed multiple passing touchdowns to the opposing quarterback in just four of their ten games this season. On the year, the Browns have allowed 14 passing touchdowns while intercepting 14 passes. They’ve allowing the 4th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Matt Ryan is also struggling – after opening the season with three passing touchdowns in three of his first four games; Ryan has tossed multiple touchdowns just once in his last six games.
Jonas Gray vs. DET
Despite having a performance that will likely go down as the best in his career on Sunday night, Jonas Gray can’t be trusted. His role will depend on game flow and matchups – he’ll be easier to trust in games that the Patriots are favored by a heavy margin. The Lions run defense has been stout all season – they have allowed an opposing backfield to top 100 rushing yards just once this season. This is a matchup to avoid for last week’s star.
Chris Ivory at BUF
The Bills run defense has been superb this season – they are currently allowing the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Chris Ivory hasn’t topped 51 yards or 14 touches in three weeks. The Jets aren’t scoring enough for touchdowns to buoy his value. Avoid Ivory in a difficult matchup this week.
Fred Jackson vs. NYJ
With Fred Jackson returning the Bills will likely move to a three-man time-share. While I do expect Jackson to have value again this season, I don’t believe it will be this week. The Bills are likely to ease Jackson in while still keeping Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon involved. He’s not an option against a tough Jets run defense.
Michael Floyd at SEA
Despite scoring two touchdowns last week, Michael Floyd is not an elite option. Unfortunately he had just two catches and without reliable volume, he’s difficult to trust. This week he draws the toughest matchup possible, playing the Seahawks in Seattle. The Seahawks have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Andre Johnson vs. CIN
At this stage of their careers, I believe DeAndre Hopkins is a better receiver than Andre Johnson. Johnson has just one touchdown and has topped 100 yards once this season. At this point, he’s only reliable in PPR leagues. The Texans face the Bengals this week, who have allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Golden Tate at NE
It’s likely that the Patriots will stick the lengthy Brandon Browner on Calvin Johnson and Darrelle Revis on Golden Tate. This gives Tate a difficult matchup as Browner is the more exploitable cornerback. Either way, the Patriots pass defense is a difficult matchup as they have allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Jacob Tamme vs. MIA
While Tamme did see a solid amount of targets in Julius Thomas’ absence, he simply isn’t a playmaker. He lacks replacement-level athleticism and only deserves consideration because of Peyton Manning. The matchup is not favorable, as the Dolphins have allowed the 4th fewest points to opposing tight ends. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is a better streamer for Week 12.