2012 Fantasy Football

Ξ 19 comments

Rest Of Season Strength Of Schedule

posted by Chet

Ok, so these numbers you’re going to fry your eyes with are from the first three weeks. That officially is not enough data to feel great about their accuracy. But unofficially, I like to check it out anyway.

I’ve taken our Matchup Numbers and used applied them to the schedule, until week 16. The numbers are based on how each defense does against each position. So for quarterbacks we’ll have passing yards allowed, fantasy points allowed, passing TDs allowed, completion percentage allowed, and their DVOA ranking against the pass. We take the ranking, 1 through 33, 32 being the worst, for each category and then average it out for each defense. So right now, Philadelphia has a 3.4, the best defense against QBs based on these numbers, and Tennessee has a 31.2, the worst defense against QBs.

Then we look at similar stats for each position and use our abacus to manipulate and hopefully make our favorite fantasy players look good.

So below you’ll see out numbers with some wacky colors that don’t mean much except to help you differentiate some junk. Each chart has the easiest schedule on the top and worst on the bottom. To see each position, go to the bottom and click on the tab for the corresponding position and you’ll enter a realm of fake football nugety goodness.

Like I said, these numbers are early, but we can at least get a general idea of how the season is going. Peyton Manning seems to benefit, while Matt Stafford doesn’t. Do I trade Stafford straight up for Manning? No, I maybe try to acquire Manning, but Stafford is in such a fantasy friendly offense, that I just don’t see him not putting up good numbers this season.

I would use this chart to help you if you are choosing between two closely ranked players, such as between Marshawn Lynch and Darren McFadden. I like both about equally as far as fantasy is concerned, but McFadden looks to have an easier path ahead of him than Lynch.

And these numbers also give me an excuse to tell you to go get The Muscle Hamster before it’s too late! Scurry, don’t walk to the trade button nearest you!

So anyway, it is what it is. Take a look-see and eat your vegetables.

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Chet

Chet has written for the N.Y. Times: Fifth Down Blog, Rotoworld, Fanduel Insider and Razzball. He is extremely/obsessively active on Twitter and likes cottage cheese.
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19 Comments

  • In nonppr, what do you think of trading Demaryius Thomas, Chris Johnson, and Brandon Marshall to get Foster? Would you do it if you had Foster?

    I’ll still have Reggie Wayne, Antonio Brown, Andrew Hawkins, Jerome Simpson at WR. Heath Miller and Pitta for TE and possibly flex.

  • Chet, a couple questions: 1pt PPR:
    1) RBs are McCoy, Murray, TRich, LeShoure and R. Williams. Drop RWill and try to grab Mendenhall (I’m #9 waiver).
    2) Bye week for Romo. Ponder vs TEN, or Dalton vs MIA?
    3) WR#3 – Amendola vs AZ or L. Moore vs SD? Lance at home has been money (My 1&2 are Harvin and Bowe).

  • Do you still like AP for the rest of the season even though SOS is next to last?

    • Yeah, he’s been running well. The TDs will come.

  • I was offered dez, c.benson for jordy nelson and leshoure. Non ppr league. Should I stay put with my guys

    • I’d stay put.

  • Hi, Doc, hoping for some advice…im in a 10 team 2RB, 3WR,flex (wr/rb/te) .5ppr – 15 weeks no playoffs

    QB: Cam
    TE: Bennett, Hernandez
    RB: T-Rich, D.Martin, R.Williams, P.Thomas, P.Hillis
    WR: Megatron, Maclin, Amendola, S.Rice, L.Hankerson, J.Simpson, R.Barden
    also, would you drop Hillis

    Have an offer of: Roddy White, V.Davis, M.Ingram for D.Martin, D.Amendola, and M.Bennett? Seems like a fair offer and Id get the best player in the offer in White, right? I know that Im lacking RB depth, but would it be worth the move anyway? and then trade hernandez for RB when he returns?

    What are your thoughts on the offer? Thanks

  • sorry for my dumbness, i don’t understand the chart, if i wanna see what Mathews schedule looks down the stretch i go to RB ROS and look for the teams he is playing against the final 3 weeks?

    • the chart is for the teams the RB is on. look at SD for mathews schedule. he has the 5th easiest for RBs.

  • Two rb on waivers. Stewart or vereen? News Jackson is starting. Leshore, spiller or Jackson to start in the flex? Thanks

    • Stewart, Leshoure

  • Could I get your opinion on my team and some good buy low players I can target? It’s a 10 team espn standard league.

    qb- RG3
    rb- McFadden
    rb- Murray
    wr- Jordy
    wr- Maclin
    te- Graham
    flex- Martin
    bn- Stafford, S.Rice, Leshoure, Hawkins, Hartline, Simpson, L.Miller

    • I like your team. I’d look to replace Rice. I don’t see anyone I’d want to sell on your team right now except maybe Leshoure.

  • @Pedrit044: @Chet_G time to drop locker for ponder? Esp this week. Thoughts on dez? Thinking of starting amendola over him this week.

    • I like lockers ceiling a little more but if you need to start ponder I could see doing it. It’s close between him and Dez. I lean toward the talent when it’s close.

  • What do you think about Freeman going forward? He’s looked marginal so far, but it looks like the sched is promising…

    • Don’t have my hopes too high for him but he’s worth a roster spot.

  • would it be foolish to trade Graham to strengthen team and just go with Rudolph? Thanks

    • Depends on the trade, but Graham is still very much ahead of Rudolph.

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