Reflecting on July MFL10 ADP
August 6, 2016 | Justin Edwards
As we look forward into August to continue (or begin) dabbling in the great off-season activity of Draft-Only Best Ball leagues it’s important to look back and see what mistakes we or our fellow drafters might be making. Below are some ADPs that caught my eye in this past month for the right or wrong reasons.
*All ADPs are based on drafts from July 1st – August 1st
Duke Johnson – Cleveland Browns RB, Overall Pick 51.84 (RB18) Overvalued
-Offseason Notes: On his role in the offense: “..not really sure”
-Competition: Isaiah Crowell
-2015 RB24 in total points, RB40 in FP/Gm. 104-379-0 rushing 61-534-2 on 74 targets
-Weekly Upside: 100 total yards (happened only once last year), 6 catches
Young Dookie had an incredible rookie season as a pass catcher out of the backfield. Let me just get that out of the way now before you think I somehow don’t love a guy in a PPR league who just had nearly 75 targets. His receiving numbers were behind only five other running backs (Woodhead-Riddick-Freeman-Sproles-Vereen), all of which were definitely not rookies. While others foresee an uptick in targets, possibly up towards triple digits, I simply do not. There have been seven instances in which an RB has received at least 95 targets over the last three years and they were either hogging nearly every snap out of the backfield (Le’Veon, Jamaal) or were a part of a pass heavy team (Woodhead, Riddick). Johnson will be doing neither of those. Well, what about a guy who receives targets and a good amount of the workload out of the backfield? Someone like Gio Bernard, who Duke has been compared to all offseason? Funny you should ask, as not only does Bernard possess a very particular skill set, he is also being drafted three spots behind Duke. Gio has put together back-to-back-to-back 1,000+ total yard seasons while playing with Jeremy Hill in Hue Jackson’s run heavy approach. The only difference is the fact that Cincinnati’s offense has been much more prolific than their northeastern brethren, and even their 2015 squad is much more talented than the one headed by Robert Griffin. Cleveland did not draft a running back with their 27 draft picks this year (it might have been a little less) so it seems apparent that they like the dichotomy that they have now. If that’s the case then we’re not getting the sort of upside we’d like in Best Ball and are absolutely drafting Duke at his tippy-top ceiling at 5.03. It’s anything but foolproof trying to predict red zone usage but it’s worth noting that Johnson had 10 RZ attempts and gained 9 yards while Crowell was given the ball 29 times (74 yards) from in close and scored all four of his touchdowns on those carries.
Frank Gore – Indianapolis Colts RB, Overall Pick 73.69 (RB28) Undervalued
-Offseason Notes: Frank Gore will not be on a ‘pitch count’.
-Competition: Perennial no. 3 running backs and UDFA Josh Ferguson
-2015 RB14 in total points, RB23 in FP/Gm. 260-967-6 and 34-267-1 on 58 targets
-’14 RB21/RB32 255-1,103-4, ’13 RB18/RB27 276-1,128-9
-Weekly Upside: 125 total yards, sprinkle in 6-8 rushing touchdowns
The old man just keeps on trucking and my love for Old Reliables shines through right here. As a consistent part of a vastly underperforming offense Franky still produced a high-end RB2 2015 despite an injured Andrew Luck, something called a Matt Hasselbeck and an offensive line that ranked 27th in DVOA. Indianapolis did everything in their power to fix that last piece of the puzzle, drafting four offensive lineman in this year’s draft, including 18th-overall pick Center Ryan Kelly out of Alabama, who hadn’t allowed a sack in his last 1,818 snaps. A number like that should be glistening to Luck who will be helping boost the entire offense if he can stay off of his back and healthy. Moving the ball to the goalline will mostly be Gore’s job and the red zone work would presumably be 100% Gore’s considering the group of Jordan Todman, Robert Turbin and undrafted free agent Josh Ferguson have a combined 4 rushing touchdowns for their careers, or, two less than what Gore had last year alone. As long as he stays healthy he will be the main rock-toter for what is sure to be one of the more prolific offenses in the league and yet he’s being drafted as a RB3 behind guys sharing the load like Jeremy Hill. Get some pieces of him and build high-risk, high-reward running backs around him.
Tom Brady – New England Patriots QB, Overall Pick 98.67 (QB7) Overvalued
-Offseason Notes: Brady staying positive, moving on about suspension
-Competition: Roger Goodell
-2015 QB2 in total points, QB2 in FP/Gm. 4,770-36-7
-’14 QB11/QB14 4,109-33-9, ’13 QB14/QB19 4,343-25-11
-Weekly Upside: 350 yards, 3 touchdowns
Maybe this one comes down to preference and whether or not you believe that Mr. Brady will actually miss the first four games of the year this go-round. Though I am not a lawyer, I’m of the assumption that dropping the appeal and discussing what you’ll be doing during the first four games of the season instead of playing football would mean that you’re not planning on being on the field. With that in mind I’ll take a full season out of 15 or so other starting NFL quarterbacks rather than 12 games of Tom Brady, no matter how dreamy and full of production he might be. 8.02 is an early draft capital to pay for any QB that literally has a 0% chance of finishing the season as the overall QB1. If you want to chase his upside for the latter 75% of the season then more power to you but how much higher is his weekly upside than someone like Drew Brees or Carson Palmer, guys that are going immediately before and after him?
Bilal Powell – New York Jets RB, Overall Pick 130.24 (RB45) Undervalued
-Offseason Notes: Re-signed Powell is ready for the ball whenever they need him
-Competition: Matt Forte, Khiry Robinson
-2015 RB34 in total points, RB26 in FP/Gm. 70-313-1, 47-388-2 on 63 targets in 11 games
-’14 RB89/RB118 33-141-1, ’13 RB34/RB45 176-697-1, 36-272-0 on 57 targets
-Weekly Upside: 80 total yards, 7 receptions. Not much TD upside.
For the second time in the last three years the AFC New York chose to make Bilal Powell more of a focal point of the offense, making him the 9th most targeted running back in the league even though he only played in 11 games. The signing of one Matt Forte could put a damper on the pass catching parade, as he himself grabbed 102 passes from Jay Cutler just two years ago. Bilal is sure to lose some of his passing game snaps to the new addition but it is obvious that the Jets didn’t sign Forte to become their bellcow, more of an inclusion in their running back by committee. As it stands now, Khiry Robinson remains on the PUP list, giving Powell the no. 2 RB spot behind Forte, who is dealing with a hamstring issue himself. Bilal is one of my favorite types of draft picks; a guy who has ‘standalone’ value who could become a giant steal if someone in front of him goes down for any period of time.
Nelson Agholor – Philadelphia Eagles WR, Overall Pick 183.49 (WR68) Undervalued
-Offseason Notes: Let’s just not go there.
-Competition: Josh Huff, Reuben Randle
-2015 WR101 in total points, WR124 in FP/Gm. 23-283-1 on 40 targets
-Weekly Upside: Seriously, who knows? But as your WR7, I’m prepared to venture into the unknown with what should be a pass-heavy team’s no. 2.
I’ll start off by saying if you don’t like to draft guys with questionable personalities or off-the-field issues, I totally understand. From what I can tell it was an attempt at a quick money grab and his alleged early summer wrongdoings were incredibly exaggerated and unfounded. Anyways, back to football. Nelson Agholor’s rookie season was a giant fart. Good, now we’ve gotten past the two elephants in the room. You know who else had a pretty terrible first year in the NFL? Almost every other wide receiver drafted in the first round. Let’s have a look:
|Kevin White||0 snaps|
|Breshad Perriman||0 snaps|
As hard as it is to believe, Nelson had the third best year among this group and he’s being drafted as the last wide receiver among them (Cooper – WR14, Parker – WR31, White – WR36, Dorsett –WR55, Perriman WR66).
Though the new brain trust was attempting to use Jordan Matthews on the outside through Spring, it looks like he will be relegated to the slot, leaving the outside completely open for Agholor to snatch which could be construed as both good and bad. Good because he should have a better opportunity for explosive plays – which we love in MFL’s – but bad because he might actually produce much better numbers from a slot role. I would expect last year’s no. 20 overall pick to be forced into the offense, even though this is a new coaching staff. There simply isn’t a lot of competition to sneak on to the field in front of him. With the Eagles’ win total at 7, Vegas expects them to be losing in most games, meaning they will need to air the ball out. If Sam Bradford wants to fight off Wentz for any amount of time he may need to target his young speedy receiver as often as possible.
Colin Kaepernick – San Francisco 49ers QB, Overall Pick 219.07 (QB35) Undervalued
-Offseason Notes: Kaep is the odds on favorite to win the job according to offshore bookmakers. Yes, seriously.
-Competition: Blaine. Gabbert.
-2015 QB33 in total points, QB37 in FP/Gm. 1,615-6-5, 45-256-1 on the ground in 9 games
-’14 QB16/QB21 3,369-19-10 and 105-641-1 on the ground, ’13 QB12/QB18 3,197-21-8 and 95-521-4 on the ground.
-Weekly Upside: 250 through the air, 50 on the ground, 2 scores and a turnover
Don’t make that face. Don’t even pretend like you can read his name without picturing him galloping down the sideline, racking up all of those precious fantasy points without even needing to let go of the ball. I mean, just look at those numbers from 2013! Less than 3,200 yards passing yet he was a QB1. And now he has Chip Kelly as his coach. If someone were to write a book that were then made into a terrible inspiring movie this exact situation would be the part where a quarterback and his coach come together and save the other’s career by infusing the West Coast offense with a triple-option. These two unlikely heroes defeat all odds and go on to finish the season 6-10, tied for 3rd in the NFC West. As your QB3 in the very last round of an MFL10, this is the sort of zero draft capital decision you can make that could make you look like the hero.