PWN Stars: Week Five
October 3, 2014 | Chad Scott
Here is our Week 5 DFS Cheat Sheet with picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, DraftDay and Fantasy Elite
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PWN Stars is a weekly deep sleeper article – used mostly for bye weeks – but useful for degenerate dynasty folks. It’s inevitable there will be a Richardo Lockette, John Kuhn or Larry Donnell every single week. Sure, these guys are mostly useless week-to-week, but sometimes, one breakout performance turns into two, three and maybe four. That’s PWNing at its finest. You won’t find guys like Justin Forsett, Isaiah Crowell or Dwayne Allen here. PWN Stars are the blue chip fake footballers who are owned in less than 25% of MyFantasyLeague.com leagues. Guys that you can insert into your daily or seasonal/dynasty teams if you’re looking for a Hail Mary. Now that you know what this is, enter at your own risk.
Welp! Another Thursday Night football game, another Thursday Night blowout. Apparently, the 42-10 Green Bay win was the second-worst (or best) margin of victory behind last week’s TNF snooze fest, Atlanta vs Tampa Bay.
Cheers, Rog. You’ve bested us mere mortals yet again.
Let’s look ahead to the weekend/Monday Night slate of games to find a gem who off-sets your Cordarrelle Patterson, Matt Asiata or Christian Ponder start. Also, if you started Ponder in one of your leagues, please GTFOH. Just kidding… but seriously. Go.
Week Five byes are a bit kinder to us with only two teams on leave: Miami Dolphins and Oakland Raiders. They deserve it following the daft performance England had to endure at Wembley Stadium. The entire game was dodgy, to be honest…
Last week, PWN Stars started warming up when Andre Holmes totaled 18.4 PPR points (WR13) while Branden Oliver put up a respectable 9.6 PPR points (RB32). At least he bested his teammate and flavor of the week, Donald Brown (RB33). The inevitable downfall is undoubtedly upon us.
Junior Hemingway, WR KC (< 2% owned)
Resisting the urge to insert former 49er first-rounder AJ Jenkins here for his “revenge game” narrative has been one of my finer accomplishments this week. The “want” for slotting in Jenkins stems from Chiefs’ starter, Donnie Avery suffering a sports hernia on Monday night and is officially out for several weeks following surgery.
Already third on the team in total snaps at wide receiver, Hemingway is their leading slot receiver and should see an increase in targets and snaps over the disappointing Jenkins despite the starting nod.
Per PFF, Hemingway has run 72 pass routes with 54 (75%) of those coming from the slot. I’ll go ahead and point out he has just five targets, three receptions for 31 yards from the slot, but here’s where it gets interesting.
The Niners’ first round selection this season was cornerback, Jimmie Ward, who mans the slot and has given up the sixth-most receptions in slot coverage (11-112-3). The three touchdowns surrendered in slot coverage leads all nickel backs, but all three were against Brandon Marshall in week Two. Junior Hemingway is not Brandon Marshall – just to clarify.
San Francisco is a top-five defense against fantasy running backs (13 PPR PPG) and are second-best against tight ends (9 PPR PPG). Jamaal Charles and Greek God, Travis Kelce may have some issues this week, especially with Avery – their focal deep threat – inactive.
In the two Chiefs’ losses, Alex Smith dropped back 45 and 48 times. In their two wins, only 31 and 30. Bovada currently have the Niners as a six-point favorite at home so I expect Andy Reid and Smith to throw early and often.
This makes for a sneaky (desperation) play as starting cornerbacks, Perrish Cox and Chris Culliver have yet to allow a touchdown on the season. I don’t expect big yardage totals, but I do expect targets and receptions for the third-year receiver. With a little luck, he’ll find the end zone for just the third time in his career.
“The best way to find out if you can trust somebody is to trust them.” – Ernest Hemingway
PWN Prediction: Six receptions, 60 yards and one touchdown (18 PPR points)
Luke Willson, TE SEA (5% owned)
There are a few reasons I like Willson this week: Zach Miller is out – leaving Willson as the only other tight end on their roster who has played this season; Willson is a 6-foot-5, 251 pounder who runs a 4.51 going against a Washington defense who got Larry Donnell’d; and if you own either Jordan Reed or Niles Paul and both (or the one you own) are inactive, you can pick-up Willson and plug him into your lineups prior to Monday night if need be.
Willson isn’t the well-rounded tight end Miller is – meaning, he blocks less than I block people on Twitter (zero blocks to my Twitter name) – but I don’t think that’s necessarily a bad thing. I don’t want my fantasy tight end to stay in and block on pass plays (26% of Miller’s total pass plays). I love all-around tight ends who can block, but as it stands today, names like Anthony Fasano, Levine Toilolo and Michael Hoomanawanui are atop PPF’s tight end pass blocker ratings. Unless, you’re in a points per pancake league, these are not the droids we’re looking for.
The Faked Goods Podcast has touched on how well the Washington defense has played against the run this season last week when we warned you about Rashad Jennings and again this week with Marshawn Lynch. The Fighting Daniel Snyders are allowing just 13.4 PPR points (3.3 YPC and just one touchdown) to fantasy running backs in 2014. Fantasy commodities such as Arian Foster, Toby Gerhardt (lol), Lesean McCoy and the aforementioned Jennings – who was a top-five option prior to last Thursday – have all struggled even with plenty of volume.
Where Washington can be had is through the air allowing the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, ninth-most to wide receivers and fifth-most to tight ends. The tight end points against are skewed due to the Donnell factor, but you get the idea.
It’s time for the second-year pup to prove his worth and there’s no time like primetime.
PWN Prediction: Five receptions, 70 yards and one touchdown (18 PPR points)