NFL Plays: Vegas Odds (Week 13)
December 3, 2016 | Justin Bales
Games to Attack
Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints
This game shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. There is no going wrong when targeting guys in this game. Both teams are going to score at will, which is why the total was initially set at 54 points (now 52.5). The Saints are now 6 point favorites (initially 5), but there will be plenty of scoring to go around. The entire Saints’ offense has elite upside, but my favorite pair is Drew Brees and Michael Thomas. That will also likely be the most used pair (though Cooks’ ownership should be high as well), so feel free to use any starters on the offense. The Lions’ offense is a bit more difficult to predict, but each of their top three wide receivers, along with Theo Riddick, can all be paired with Matthew Stafford this week. There is no going wrong when using this game.
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Washington Redskins vs Arizona Cardinals
This game reminds me of the Falcons/Cardinals game last week. The Redskins have an offense that can score on anyone, but they have struggled at times defensively. That means they should be able to score plenty this week, but they’ll also allow some points to a weaker Cardinals’ offense. Kirk Cousins, Jamison Crowder, DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and Vernon Davis can all be used for Washington. David Johnson is the only obvious option for Arizona, but Larry Fitzgerald and Jermaine Gresham also have enough upside to be used in tournaments.
Buffalo Bills vs Oakland Raiders
The Bills come in with a solid defense, but it doesn’t seem like anyone can stop the Raiders’ offense at this point. They come with elite upside, and it’s no surprise they are 3 point favorites in a game set at 48.5 points. Derek Carr makes for an elite option, and it is best to pair him with Amari Cooper. Michael Crabtree and Latavius Murray can also be used, but they are best suited for tournaments. LeSean McCoy has been an elite option all season, and the Raiders have struggled against the run this year. He’s far and away the best option for Buffalo, while Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins bring upside to their passing attack.
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Games to Avoid
Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens
The Dolphins have been on fire recently, which is why it’s surprising to see them be 3.5 point underdogs this week. It isn’t surprising, however, to see this game be set at only 41 points. Both teams rely heavily on their defenses, as the Ravens have a top-5 defense in the NFL, and the Dolphins’ defense has been playing much better than they’ve been given credit for recently. I don’t think it’s a terrible idea to take a shot on a deep threat like Mike Wallace or Kenny Stills in this game, but I’ll be avoiding it for the most part.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Cincinnati Bengals
The Eagles’ recent offensive struggles and the Bengals’ recent injuries have caused this game to open at only 41.5 points. Andy Dalton has thrown the ball over 40 times in three of his last four games, which gives him upside, but he also comes with terrible risk. Jeremy Hill, Tyler Boyd, and Tyler Eifert are three players to pair him with this week. Carson Wentz also comes with decent upside, and he can be paired with Darren Sproles, Jordan Matthews, and Zach Ertz. However, this isn’t a game to use anyone in outside of tournaments.
San Francisco 49ers vs Chicago Bears
This is the first game I wholeheartedly disagree with Vegas on. Neither offense is elite, but both defenses have struggled, and there are plenty of great fantasy options in this game. It’s extremely surprising that it’s set at only 43 points, and I could certainly see this game going over. Colin Kaepernick has been an elite fantasy option recently, and he’s still too cheap. Carlos Hyde and Vance McDonald can also be used this week. Matt Barkley threw the ball 54 times in his last start, and he has sneaky upside. Jordan Howard, Cameron Meredith, Marquess Wilson, Deonte Thompson, and Joshua Bellamy all have good upside, but I would mainly focus on the first three of the group this week.