NFL DFS WEEK 4: It’s a Trap! September 26, 2014  |  Renee Miller


bortles

 

Check out our Week 4 DFS Cheat Sheet with picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, DraftDay and Fantasy Elite

Check out Spreadsheet Sports powerful projection and optimal lineup tool and get $5 off by going through The Fake Football here.

.

 

I’m digging the pricing changes on DraftKings and FanDuel so far this season. They’re really keeping us on our toes. Last week in this article, I looked at the Broncos in Seattle. DraftKings tried, but didn’t lower their salaries enough to convince me to buy in. A 4th quarter Denver surge saved you if you went there, but by save, I just mean didn’t completely ruin your lineup. I’m curious where the Denver studs end up price-wise next week coming off the bye. I give you two traps this week, one salary based, the other strategy based. Tread carefully!



Trap #1

This week’s salary intrigue points us to Joe McKnight. Hahaha, I’m kidding…it just makes me laugh so hard to see him priced with guys like Donald Brown, Pierre Thomas, and Brandin Cooks. For real, LeSean McCoy is in this week’s dog house, which @CoachEsser and I determined is exactly $7000 at DraftKings. If you’re a stud and you have a bad week, this is where you go. Some people will surely be tempted in a high scoring game in SF this weekend. He has the motivation, one would hope, to go off for 140 yards and 2TDs. One of my season long fantasy leagues sure hopes that’s true.

But my DFS lineups are going to pass on McCoy. The single most important reason is that I don’t understand the 19/22 stat line. That is 19 rushes for 22 yards, in case you somehow missed it. It’s engrained in my brain, trust me. But it wasn’t game flow…he got 19 tries. He isn’t hurt. It was a competitive game and he is arguably the most talented player on the team. I’m not using him until he gets back to normal, especially not against a defense I believe in.

Trap #2

People are going crazy for rookie QB’s this week. It’s like there are no veterans with good matchups to talk about this week (Rivers, Brees, anyone?). No, for real in tournaments, there are solid reasons to use an inexpensive QB. Teddy Bridgewater ($5900 FD) and Blake Bortles ($6500) are the top choices, with Bortles being the favorite. Let’s break it down.



Teddy cons: The offense is a disaster. Matt Asiata cannot be the highest usage player on the field even in a game vs the Falcons. For whatever reason that fantasy players like me can’t understand, Cordarrelle Patterson is not getting the touches he needs or deserves. Maybe that changes with Bridgewater at the helm and Kyle Rudolph hurt, but I’m not using him even in tournaments. Atlanta’s defense is no juggernaut, but they showed what they can do if the opportunity presents itself. I don’t see the Vikings offense as a whole running smoothly and effectively enough to keep ATL off balance in this game.

Blake cons: San Diego is a better defense than people think. They’re graded 5th overall by PFF for 2014. Traveling to the west coast for his first start is not the place I want to use a rookie QB. I guess I think starting Bortles is a good move by the Jaguars, though I am a bit of a traditionalist when it comes to rookies taking their time to get acclimated to the NFL. The game plan in this one should be to throw a lot, as the Chargers should have no trouble scoring points. That’s good and bad for Bortles and his young receivers. The SD defense will take advantage of their mistakes. I think Toby Gerhart has to have a good game in order for Bortles to gain confidence, relieve some pressure, and have the time to make good throws. Unfortunately, the Chargers DST has excelled vs the run so far, and well, Gerhart hasn’t excelled period.

The option no one is mentioning, especially on FanDuel is Mike Glennon ($5500). He got thrown into a shit storm on TNF last week, and actually pretty much did what he always does. He’s bound to give you around 200 PaYds and 1-2 TDs. The matchup with Pittsburgh is fine, and he looks likely to have both Doug Martin and Bobby Rainey back, along with Vincent Jackson, who practiced all week so far in full with a broken wrist and caught a TD from Glennon in the blowout loss. I continue to believe in Mike Evans and this could be the week he really shows up. The TNF game means that Glennon has had extra practice time with the first team too.

Salary aside, Bortles is the best of the cheap QB plays, but taking it into consideration I rank them Glennon, Bortles, and Bridgewater. That $1000 you save by going Glennon turns Randall Cobb into Julio Jones. If you’re going cheap at QB, it really opens up your options at other skill positions. I wouldn’t use this approach for more than a couple lineups however.

 

One Response

  1. Rich Kanski says:

    3% of 54k used Bridgewater Thursday in FD event. That’s not a lot. I’m comfortable playing him for his rushing yards alone. He’ll exceed value and could easily put up 20+ vs ATL

    Reply

Leave a Reply

2014 Fantasy Football

2014 Fantasy Running Back Review

  The fantasy football offseason is slowly moving along with shuttle runs, forty times, and broad jumps just around the corner. To help pass time over the cold , cold winter months, your pals at The Fake Football will be providing mountains of fantasy coverage on the upcoming season. But before ...

READ MORE

2014 Fantasy Quarterback Review

  Welcome, fake footballers. By this early point in the offseason, you have probably dusted and shined your new league championship trophy for the 73rd time, and hopefully you’ve spent most of January crafting winning DFS lineups with the help of the wizardry that is our weekly DFS cheat sheet. Now, Danny Tanner, ...

READ MORE

Conference Championship DFS: It’s A Trap!

  Check out The Fake Football’s Conference Championship DFS Cheat Sheet!   One last trap for one last weekend of NFL DFS. Some would probably argue that just playing this slate is the trap. Ignoring that possibility, we have two great games on tap Sunday. Four great offenses (all top 10 except NE ...

READ MORE