NFL DFS Week 12: It’s a Trap!
November 21, 2014 | Renee Miller
Check out The Fake Football Week 12 DFS Cheat Sheet!
Some weeks it’s not so much of a trap as the illusion of a trap. Week 12 is set up to induce a lot of over thinking, re-thinking, and probably Tuesday morning regrets. If only I had/hadn’t played X…I knew he would/wouldn’t go off!! The solution is to hedge, of course. Take all the guys you want to play but maybe shouldn’t or shouldn’t play but really want to and build a lineup with them. Or do a bunch of mix and match lineups with those guys and your favorite “safe” plays.
Here’s a skeleton lineup of plays I’ve already over-thought too much and fear will ensnare me by Monday night:
QB: Colin Kaepernick
I’ve been crushed twice recently by Kaepernick. At home vs STL and on the road at NO. He has three bad games in a row. So why consider going back to this abusive situation? It’s simple. Washington comes to town this Sunday. The Redskins give up the second most points to opposing QBs. Russell Wilson destroyed them, as did Eli Manning. Teddy Bridgewater, Zach Mettenberger, and Josh McCown all had fine games. If Kaepernick is going to bounce back, it has to be this week.
RB: Shane Vereen
This is a Shane Vereen game. Tough Detroit run defense that has been vulnerable to pass catching backs seems to point straight to Vereen to shine. Here’s where overthinking comes into play. If I think that, and every single other fantasy analyst thinks that, don’t you suppose Detroit thinks that? And if Detroit thinks that, don’t you suppose that Bill Belichick will come up with a less obvious and more devious plan to attack the Lions top 5 defense (per PFF)? On top of that, this isn’t Denver. There’s no “it’s your turn, Shane” mentality here and in fact, Vereen has been the recipient of multiple benchings for doing boneheaded things that apparently he’s prone to do. I’ll be using him, but in a pretty limited fashion.
WR: Josh Gordon
Out of Browns mouthpieces, including coach Mike Pettine on Wednesday (paraphrased): “We’ll ease him in, we’re not just going to hand the offense over to him”. On Thursday: “He’s Brian Hoyer’s favorite shiny new toy. He didn’t look for anyone else during practice”. Coming back after 2013’s suspension, Gordon was amazing, and continued to be amazing, and is amazing, and could be amazing again on Sunday. Or he could not. He hasn’t played in a real football game in almost 11 months, the offense is different than it was under Norv, and I’m sure that a lot of the comments coming from the Browns are meant to keep the Falcons guessing more so than benefit fantasy owners. Now, the Falcons are a disaster on defense and he is head and shoulders the Browns’ best weapon, so I will be owning Gordon. I also like Hoyer, and while I’ll have some Hoyer-Gordon stacks, I’ll have some Gordon-less Hoyer lineups too, just in case part of Gordon’s job is to open things up for the guys that have been there all season like Hawkins. Regardless if Josh Gordon is the prime beneficiary or not, Hoyer will really have to implode to not have a big game here.
Feel free to tell me who you’re over-thinking this week on Twitter @reneemiller01 and good luck!