NFL DFS Week 10: It’s a Trap! November 7, 2014  |  Renee Miller


 

Check out The Fake Football’s Week 10 DFS Cheat Sheet!

 

We’ve reached double digit weeks. The season is flying by. We should all know what to do and what not to do by now. But one thing that never changes is that there are always new situations to adjust to in the NFL. Injuries, return from injuries, benchings, breakouts, and of course just matchups affect how we go about building rosters for DFS. So while Week 10 feels like a breeze to navigate compared to Week 9, there are still some tricky choices to face.

To use or not use Mark Sanchez is one such situation you may find yourself in. Playing in his first start since 2012 this week vs struggling Panthers on Monday Night Football, Sanchez is priced at only $5400 at DraftKings but $6600 at FanDuel. The much hyped Chip Kelly offense and stellar play of Jeremy Maclin recently are reasons to think that Sanchez won’t have a hard time slotting in this week. In relief last week, Sanchez threw for 202 yards, 2 TD, and 2 INT and the Eagles won the game.

In 62 career starts, we see an almost perfect echo of those numbers. Per Pro-Football-Reference.com, Sanchez averages 195 ypg, and has thrown for 70 TD and 71 INT in his career. He’s fumbled 43 times in 62 games. His sack rate is 6.3%. He is Mark Sanchez, and unless you started playing fantasy last year, you should know this. For comparison, look at the numbers of average QB Andy Dalton (average prior to TNF, I mean. He’s probably below average now): 56 games started, 88 TD, 55 INT and just 16 Fum. Mark Sanchez has a couple impressive playoff wins, but in general he’s a below average QB.

I saw this courtesy of Al Zeidenfeld on Twitter this morning. It should provide some context for the argument against Sanchez. Or if you’re like me it might evoke some combination of giggle, eye roll, smirk, and head shake.

 

It’s worth noting that Carolina’s defense is fairly generous to opposing QBs (8th in the league for fpts allowed per ESPN) and rated poorly overall by PFF. They are however tied for 5th in takeaways with 16–9 INT and 7 Fum. Seems to match up fairly well with how Sanchez likes his turnovers, and I have no problem using the Carolina D for the minimum at FanDuel.

To be fair, Sanchez looked pretty good when he came in last week. A lot has been written about his finding the open man, throwing deep early, and how he’ll have had a few days to work with the first team before MNF. At DraftKings, he can easily reach value at $5400 and I’m actually okay with using him in tournaments. I just don’t think it’s at all necessary with the options available for just a thousand more. At FanDuel it’s trickier for a couple of reasons. His price is much higher for one thing, $6600. The other thing is that FD pricing is tight this year. While DK is ridiculously soft for Week 10, it’s a lot harder to fit top RB/WR plays at FD and if you’re planning to save money at QB, you need to save more to compensate for the lack of upside Sanchez represents. For example, you can roll with Bortles, Mettenberger, or Josh McCown for increasingly less of your salary cap. The range of outcomes for Sanchez is no higher than any of those other guys.

So, I’m fading the Sanchise for Week 10. Yes, it’s fun to poke fun, but the bottom line is that I believe there are other better options, whether you save more money with a cheaper QB or pay up for Rodgers or Manning. I also think a lot of people will be tempted by Sanchez because at this time of the year everyone likes playing with a ‘new’ DFS toy.

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