The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Wild Card Round FIRST LOOK January 3, 2017  |  Doug Shain


The Huddle – Opening Statement

Welcome to the FIRST LOOK at the GPP plays for the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs. If you want to know more about my article and what it’s all about, please click here.

Ok, I lied. We totally are doing the Hail Mary for the playoffs. You can expect to see this article both this week and for the Divisional Round. Lucky you! With the slate being so short, you can expect the analysis to be brief s as well. I’ll try not to ramble. On to the picks (as always, these will be updated for the weekend).

 

 


QB

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Russell Wilson (SEA) vs DETEli Manning (NYG) @ GBBrock Osweiler (HOU) vs OAK
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs MIAMatthew Stafford (DET) @ SEAMatt Moore (MIA) @ PIT
Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs NYG

– Last week I played the chalk and got burned for it (stayed with Rodgers when Brees or Ryan were the plays). I’m probably leaning that way once again this week with Big Ben my clear cut #1 QB option. I think I can differentiate myself enough at the other positions to make a Ben/AB stack usable. I’m not a fan of Rodgers or Wilson this weekend at all, nor do I really trust Eli or Stafford. You’ll notice that I didn’t even list Connor Cook. There’s no scenario where I think he’s a guy you can use at all.

– If I’m going to fade the chalk, then I’m going to look at Matt Moore (if he starts) and Brock Osweiler. Excuse me, I just threw up in my mouth a little bit at the thought of trusting my lineups to Osweiler. Seriously though, if there ever was a matchup where he’d be in play, it’d be against a bad Oakland secondary, at home, in a game where he’s going to try to justify his mega-contract. Even if he only puts up 225 yards and 2 TD, that’s going to work for me if the rest of my lineup is on point. As for Moore, it’s not like Miami is going to be able to stop the Steelers so they are going to have to outscore them. He’s got the weapons to make that happen and he’s not very mistake prone. Look at what he did to NE last weekend. I expect a similar game this weekend.

 

 


RB

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Thomas Rawls (SEA) vs DETLamar Miller (HOU) vs OAKRashad Jennings (NYG) @ GB
Zach Zenner (DET) @ SEALatavius Murray (OAK) @ HOUAaron Ripkowski (GB) vs NYG
LeVeon Bell (PIT) vs MIAJay Ajayi (MIA) @ PITKenyan Drake (MIA) @ P IT
Ty Montgomery (GB) vs NYGPaul Perkins (NYG) @ GBDeAndre Washington (OAK) @ HOU
DeAngelo Williams (PIT) vs MIA

– I wish that Zach Zenner wasn’t such a fun player because that alone is going to keep his ownership up higher than I want it to be. Look at what David Johnson and Shaun Draughn did to the Seattle run defense the last two weeks. They are an overrated group and Zenner is not going to have to compete for touches at all. The only saving grace we have with Zenner is that LeVeon Bell and Ty Montgomery should be highly owned as well so that could keep Zenner at about 20% ownership instead of 40% ownership. I’m inclined to give him a shot because of his low price and high volume of touches. I’m probably fading the rest of the chalk on this slate.

– For my money, there are few better plays this weekend than Jay Ajayi and Paul Perkins. Perkins looked great least weekend and we know that GB can be run on. Their early season stats against the run were a façade. The Giants are going to need to control the ball to stay in this game with Green Bay, and much like they did against the Redskins, I think that’s going to happen with Perkins. I’m going to be on Ajayi quite a bit this weekend as he’s got the “questionable” tag already next to his name and that should keep people off him. Let’s not forget that he popped this Steelers defense for over 200 yards the last time they played. If it looks like he’s going to be limited, then I might consider Kenyan Drake or Damien Williams as a replacement play.

– If Houston gets up early on Oakland, look for Lamar Miller to get a heavy workload. He may be more chalk than I give him credit for right now so make sure to monitor that all week. If he’s going to be low owned, then I’ll take him. If he’s going to be 30%+, then I probably would rather target the QB/WR duo (there’s that vomit again). If Oakland is going to want to stay in this game against Houston then they need to run the ball. Latavius Murray has had an excellent season and he should be well rested after having such little volume the last two weeks (23 total touches). Jack Del Rio isn’t stupid, I don’t think, and if I know that running the ball is how Oakland stays in this game then he should as well.

 

 


WR

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) vs OAKMichael Crabtree (OAK) @ HOUAmari Cooper (OAK) @ HOU
Doug Baldwin (SEA) vs DETGolden Tate (DET) @ SEAAnquan Boldin (DET) @ SEA
Jarvis Landry (MIA) @ PITDeVante Parker (MIA) @ PITKenny Stills (MIA) @ PIT
Antonio Brown (PIT) vs MIASterling Shepard (NYG) @ GBEli Rogers (PIT) vs MIA
Odell Beckham Jr (NYG) @ GBDavante Adams (GB) vs NYGGeronimo Allison (GB) vs NYG
Jordy Nelson (GB) vs NYGJermaine Kearse (SEA) vs DETAndre Holmes (OAK) @ HOU
Paul Richardson (SEA) vs DET

– There are a lot of big names on this slate but I’m not sure how viable they all are. Clearly, Antonio Brown is the top name in this group and he should have little issue with the Miami secondary. I’m going to probably have him in my lineup whether or not I’m using Roethlisberger. At some point you have to just grit your teeth and play the chalk and he’s the chalk play I want the most. I’m more than happy to live and die with the play of Antonio Brown. I’m less interested in Baldwin, Landry, or Jordy Nelson. I don’t like the matchups for any of those guys and will actively avoid them in my lineups. I’ll have a lot of DeAndre Hopkins against a weak OAK secondary and OBJ is a prime target against a beat down GB secondary. He’s not my top target for the Giants, but if I have the cap space I’ll probably end up using him for his upside.

– My top target for the Giants is Sterling Shepard. I think that GB is going to do everything they can to stop OBJ and that should leave a lot of one on one coverage for Shepard. The kid can ball and at his low price, he don’t need a huge game to pay dividends. Jermaine Kearse is a relatively safe option as he’ll avoid Darius Slay but he also lacks upside. If I want to get a little wild with my lineup and shoot for the moon, I’d much prefer to use Paul Richardson. Let’s not forget that he was supposed to be what Tyler Lockett became before he got injured during his first training camp a couple of years ago.

– I’m not a huge fan of anyone on OAK (outside of Murray) but there’s something to be said for Andre Holmes. He’s probably had a ton of reps with Connor Cook and if they have a Bryce Petty-Robby Anderson type connection, I could see Holmes being a sneaky punt. This would be trust of Seth Roberts or Johnny Holton as well (depending on who got the most reps with Cook over the season in practice; something we should find out as the week goes on). I love the upside of Kenny Stills (he’ll get open deep at least once), the reliability of Eli Rogers (quickly becoming a clear #2 in PIT), and the late season breakout potential of Geronimo Allison (if Rodgers trusts you, you’re gold). We will see how this all shakes out by the time we go to update on Friday night.

 

 

 


TE

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
CJ Fiedorowicz (HOU) vs OAKLadarius Green (PIT) vs MIAEric Ebron (DET) @ SEA
Jimmy Graham (SEA) vs DETWill Tye (NYG) @ GBJesse James (PIT) vs MIA
Jared Cook (GB) vs NYG
Dion Sims (MIA) @ PIT

– There’s not a lot to like at all here. I think you’re going to see a lot of people flock to Fiedorowicz with Osweiler back at QB for the Texans. There’s a level of comfort there for Brock and even if the upside is limited, Fiedorowicz has a really nice floor. The upside play, of course, is Jimmy Graham. He’s the most talented TE on the slate and DET has been burned by the position a lot this year.

– If you want to fade the chalk, then I think using a TD dependent guy like Dion Sims is worth a shot because he’s not going to cost you much and one TD will pay off his price. On the other end of the spectrum, Jared Cook is really attractive because the CB for the Giants are really good and that may lead to Rodgers looking away from his top WR. That leaves the middle of the field wide open for Cook. I also think that Jesse James is interesting with Ladarius Green one hit away from being removed from the game.

 

 


DEF

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Houston Texans vs OAKNew York Giants @ GBDetroit Lions @ SEA
Seattle Seahawks vs DETOakland Raiders @ HOUPittsburgh Steelers vs MIA
Green Bay Packers vs NYG

– You’re using Houston, right? I mean, is there any other option? They are most likely going to start Connor Cook and their backup is a guy they just signed TO the practice squad; not OFF the practice squad…TO the practice squad. This is a terrible situation for Oakland and if they happen to fall behind, they are toast. With only eight teams on the slate, YOU HAVE TO FADE the Houston defense. I’d be shocked if they are under 40% owned and that leaves a lot of value out there for you.

– If I’m fading Houston, and I’m totally fading Houston, then I’m going to look one of three ways: New York, Seattle, or Pittsburgh. The Giants are playing so hot on defense right now that it’s totally conceivable that they’d shut down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The only way the Giants win this game is if they keep it low scoring and I think that means ball control on offense (hence the Perkins recommendation) and all out craziness on defense. I’m not sure I trust Matthew Stafford on the road right now with his finger all jacked up. He has been really bad since the injury and the Seahawks are going to make life miserable for him. I’d like the Steelers a lot more if I knew that Ryan Tannehill was going to be starting for Miami as I find that Matt More may be less dynamic, but he’s a lot safer with the football. If Tannehill is good to go, I might move PIT up to my #2 defense for the week behind the Giants.

 

 


Best of luck this week! I hope you all kick some butt and make a ton of money. Make sure to check out all the great content at The Fake Football including the Cheat Sheets.You’ll find a ton of analysis, and data. It’s well worth the cost of subscription.

Your feedback is always welcome.  You can find me on Twitter @bankster17. I’m around all the time for questions, advice, and comments.  I answer every single person that sends me a Tweet.

 

 

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