The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 9 FIRST LOOK October 31, 2016  |  Doug Shain


 

The Huddle – Opening Statement

Welcome to the FIRST LOOK at the GPP plays for NFL Week 9. If you want to know more about my article and what it’s all about, please click here.

Because of the large number of players on these lists, please understand when I don’t write a blurb about each and every one of them. If you want to know more about a player that I glossed over, or why they are placed into the list I have them in, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17). I respond to everyone who writes to me so you can feel confident that your question will get answered.


 

QB

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Dak Prescott (DAL) @ CLEJosh McCown (CLE) vs DALBen Roethlisberger (PIT) @ BAL
Cam Newton (CAR) @ LANick Foles (KC) vs JAXBlake Bortles (JAX) @ KC
Drew Brees (NO) @ SFRyan Tannehill (MIA) vs NYJSam Bradford (MIN) vs DET
Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs INDEli Manning (NYG) vs PHICarson Wentz (PHI) @ NYG
Andrew Luck (IND) @ GBCase Keenum (LA) vs CAR
Marcus Mariota (TEN) @ SDColin Kaepernick (SF) vs NO
Philip Rivers (SD) vs TENDerek Carr (OAK) vs DEN
Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) @ MIA

 

 – I guess that this Dak Prescott thing isn’t going away. He looked so good on Sunday night once again, and I can’t keep ignoring him in fantasy. The public isn’t going to either with DAL headed to CLE. I can see myself either going Dak/Zeke or Dak/Bryant to take advantage of that matchup. I’m a little concerned about Drew Brees heading back outdoors, but this isn’t the KC defense he’s facing so I’m on board with using him. The game of the weekend from a fantasy perspective should be GB/IND. With no running game to speak of, I’ll favor Aaron Rodgers as my QB of choice from that game. That’s not to say I’ll fade Luck completely, but something’s just not right in Indy right now. If GB/IND isn’t your shootout, then maybe SD/TEN will be. Marcus Mariota is playing like a #2 overall pick should, and I’ll continue to ride the hot hand against a weak Chargers defense.

– Josh McCown is a legit fantasy QB. I love how inexpensive he is and the upside he brings. He’s actually got some solid weapons to work with in Pryor, Barnidge, and The Duke. Add in a (possibly) returning Corey Coleman and there’s a lot to like when using the Browns. If Nick Foles starts for KC then I’ll be using him; if it’s Alex Smith then I’ll pass. It’s not that Foles is better, it’s just that I like his upside more than the reliability of Smith. There’s something special about Nick Foles in an Andy Reid offense.  The matchup with JAX doesn’t hurt either.

– There are a lot of questions when it comes up HuLo QB this weekend. Will Big Ben be ready to air it out in this traditionally low scoring matchup? Is Carson Wentz starting to realize he’s a rookie QB? Can Derek Carr be the 1st QB to have a big game against the Broncos defense this season? Will Colin Kaepernick be able to take advantage of a great matchups against a terrible Saints defense? Is Sam Bradford good enough to have a GPP-winning game against a Lions team that gets lit by everyone?  In my mind the answers are Yes, yes, no, yes, and no. Clearly I’ll have more to say about this for Saturday’s update.

 


RB

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Le'Veon Bell (PIT) @ BALMatt Asiata (MIN) vs DETDuke Johnson (CLE) vs DAL
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) @ CLETim Hightower (NO) @ SFTodd Gurley (LA) vs CAR
Jay Ajayi (MIA) vs NYJCarlos Hyde (SF) vs NODerrick Henry (TEN) @ SD
Matt Forte (NYJ) @ MIAMelvin Gordon (SD) vs TENFrank Gore (IND) @ GB
Jonathan Stewart (CAR) @ LATheo Riddick (DET) @ MIN
DeMarco Murray (TEN) @ SDTy Montgomery (GB) vs IND
Devontae Booker (DEN) @ OAK
Charcandrick West (KC) vs JAX
Mike Gillislee (BUF) vs NE

 

– With a few big names on the bye this weekend it’s going to be up to Bell and Zeke to hold down the high end RB spectrum. I like both guys and won’t hesitate to use either. If I had to pick one it’d be Elliott based on his matchup, but it wouldn’t shock me if Bell’s receiving skills brought him a higher score. Matt Forte, Jay Ajayi, and JStew are going to have ownerships that just don’t appeal to me. I don’t believe in any of them so I’ll probably fade all three unless something hits me midweek to change my mind. I’m concerned enough about Murray’s injury that I’ll probably choose Henry over him if I think Murray’s workload is going to be limited at all. Booker and West will be in a lot of lineups if for no other reason than salary relief (West only if Ware is out).

– There are some money plays right here ,and it starts with Melvin Gordon. The guy is so much better than he’s given credit for. Heading into last weekend, in a PPR setting, he’d be the #10 RB if you took away everyone’s TD’s. Even with a 3.3 YPC his volume has been enough to make him a very valuable asset. People love to crap on him, but I love using him and will do so again this weekend. If Ty Montgomery is back and healthy then I’m all over him with the release of Knile Davis. If Montgomery is still ill then I’ll avoid the GB running situation altogether and instead look to Adams or Cobb (if healthy) at WR. There are a lot of “ifs” this weekend, but if Mark Ingram is still in the Saints doghouse (or if he’s traded…please lord, let him get traded) then I will probably have Tim Hightower as a top 3 RB against a 49ers defense that can’t stop anyone on the ground.  Theo Riddick is a PPR stud, and I’d consider him even against the Vikings.

– As I wrote about earlier, I kind of think Derrick Henry is going to see increased action this week to keep DeMarco healthy. I love the production we’ve seen in limited time from Henry, so if we can get to 15 touches then I think he’s in line for a very nice game. Frank Gore is about as boring of a play as there is, but he also rarely disappoints. I won’t use him much (because I prefer upside), but he’s a smart play to use as a “he fits the amount of money I have left” type of guy. Once of these days Todd Gurley is going to go full Todd Gurley. I’ll keep using him until he does.

 


WR

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Antonio Brown (PIT) @ BALCole Beasley (DAL) @ CLEMike Wallace (BAL) vs PIT
Dez Bryant (DAL) @ CLEJeremy Maclin (KC) vs JAXTyreek Hill (KC) vs JAX
Terrelle Pryor (CLE) vs DALQuincy Enunwa (NYJ) @ MIAKenny Stills (MIA) vs NYJ
Jarvis Landry (MIA) vs NYJJordan Matthews (PHI) @ NYGStefon Diggs (MIN) vs DET
Odell Beckham Jr (NYG) vs PHITavon Austin (LA) vs CARGolden Tate (DET) @ MIN
Brandin Cooks (NO) @ SFKelvin Benjamin (CAR) @ LAVictor Cruz (NYG) vs PIT
Donte Moncrief (IND) @ GBMichael Thomas (NO) @ SFKenny Britt (LA) vs CAR
Davante Adams (GB) vs INDTravis Benjamin (SD) vs TENKendall Wright (TEN) @ SD
Jordy Nelson (GB) vs INDDemaryius Thomas (DEN) @ OAKJeremy Kerley (SF) vs NO
Amari Cooper (OAK) vs DENMichael Crabtree (OAK) vs DENT.Y. Hilton (IND) @ GB
Julio Jones (ATL) vs GB

 

– Dez Bryant is back and he looks awesome. He’s got another fantastic matchup this weekend, and I won’t be shy at all about using him. On the other sideline in that same game I’ll be targeting Terrelle Pryor, who has clearly become the top player to own in CLE. He’s been outstanding and is a target machine. Dallas isn’t winning with defense this year so I’m good using players against them. Amari Cooper may be a popular play because of his huge Week 8, but DEN doesn’t give up receiving TD. I know that could make him a contrarian play, but I’ll probably pass on him and instead look to Crabtree with a slightly easier CB matchup. I’ll be all over the GB receivers, and right now it’s looking like Adams and Jordy are the two best to use. I will strongly consider an ARod/Adams/Jordy 3-man stack given this matchup. Donte Moncrief is apparently the new flavor of the month for Andrew Luck, but I’d still much rather use a lower-owned T.Y. Hilton.

– Quincy Enunwa got a lot of targets in Week 8. He’s going to need to continue to get those targets in order for Brandon Marshall to get some relaxed coverage. I’ll keep using Enunwa as long as he remains inexpensive and productive.  Imagine how good he’d be if he actually caught a respectable number of those targets.  Michael Thomas is quickly becoming the favorite target of Drew Brees, and he’s also inexpensive. He’s a lock for any lineup where I’m using Brees. Tavon Austin doesn’t get a ton of yards, but he’s gold in PPR. Jordan Matthews should continue to be productive against a banged up Giants secondary.

– Tyreek Hill made me look pretty smart last week, and I say he keeps it up this weekend. He’s only going to get better, and his speed is outstanding. I won’t heavily own him, but he’s a punt play with a ton of upside. Stefon Diggs should get double digit targets against a bad Lions secondary. Mike Wallace has come out of nowhere to be a 10 target kind of guy. He’s still fast and can break one against a bad PIT defensive backfield. Let’s not forget that Wallace used to play for PIT, and that narrative has worked out a lot recently (if you believe in narratives). The Jets give up long TD passes on a weekly basis; the guy to do that in MIA is Kenny Stills. Someone will have a good game against the Saints; my guess is its Kerley who gets the targets.

 


TE

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Travis Kelce (KC) vs JAXDennis Pitta (BAL) vs PITLadarius Green (PIT) @ BAL
Greg Olsen (CAR) @ LAAntonio Gates (SD) vs TENGary Barnidge (CLE) vs DAL
Jack Doyle (IND) @ GBDelanie Walker (TEN) @ SDHunter Henry (SD) vs TEN
Coby Fleener (NO) @ SFKyle Rudolph (MIN) vs DETVirgil Green (DEN) @ OAK

 

– Gronk, Eifert, Fiedorowicz, Reed, Vernon Davis, and Zach Miller are all on byes this weekend. That leaves TE as the Wild West. Greg Olsen is probably the safest play at TE, but if I’m going to follow the public it will probably be with Kelce. He looked great last weekend (who doesn’t against IND?) and has another great matchup this weekend. If Nick Foles ends up starting and Spencer Ware is still hurting, then I actually like Kelce a lot more.

– Welcome back to fantasy relevance, Antonio Gates! Gates has been great the last few weeks, and I see no reason for Rivers to stop looking his way. He’s been especially productive down near the goal line, and I bet we see a few more red zone targets this weekend as well. Kyle Rudolph wins the “which TE plays the Lions” lottery for Week 9, so he’s automatically near the top of my rankings. Delanie Walker had another nice game in Week 8 and is hitting value regularly.

– Hunter Henry was mostly ignored in Week 8 with Antonio Gates being the primary TE, but he’s too talented to just go away. It wouldn’t shock me to see SD move to a 2-TE offense and work the middle with both guys as soon as this weekend.  If Ladarius Green is finally cleared to play I wouldn’t hesitate to use him as PIT is going to want to see immediate returns on their investment. I’ll look at Barnidge any time McCown is in at QB for the Browns.

 


DEF

 

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Kansas City Chiefs vs JAXMiami Dolphins vs NYJPittsburgh Steelers @ BAL
Minnesota Vikings vs DETTennessee Titans @ SDDallas Cowboys @ CLE
Carolina Panthers @ LALos Angeles Rams vs CARGreen Bay Packers vs IND
Denver Broncos @ OAKOakland Raiders vs DEN
San Diego Chargers @ DEN

 

– Oh my goodness, Blake Bortles has to go to KC. This is not going to end well for the Jacksonville QB (well, not until he goes for 200 yards and 2 TD in garbage time). Before that garbage time heroism though, KC should have a field day with the Jaguars. We could be looking at multiple sacks and turnovers as well as a possible pick six (Bortles is that bad). Using the Chiefs is going to be very chalky, but I’m more than OK with that this weekend. As a matter of fact, I like all the public defenses this weekend. There are few teams I wouldn’t use the Broncos and Vikings (no, I’m not worried about MIN) against, and the Panthers have maybe righted the ship after their bye week. They sure looked good against the Cardinals (minus the garbage time).

– On the off chance that Carolina regresses back to their earlier struggles, the Rams defense makes for an interesting play. They have kept LA in most games this year and have a dangerous D-line. I’ll take a peek at any defense facing the Jets, so MIA is well within consideration for me.

– Indy continues to struggle, and now they head to Lambeau. The Packers aren’t really strong defensively, but against IND you just have to show up and you’ll get a few sacks and some chances for turnovers. Oakland has actually improved a lot on defense over the course of the year, and their secondary is a little bit underrated. Trevor Siemian is good for a pick or two, and that DEN offensive line isn’t special. I like the Raiders as a sneaky defensive play in Week 9.

 


Best of luck this week! I hope you all kick some butt and make a ton of money. Make sure to check out all the great content at The Fake Football including the Cheat Sheets.You’ll find a ton of analysis, data, and sample lineups. It’s well worth the cost of subscription.

Your feedback is always welcome.  You can find me on Twitter @bankster17. I’m around all the time for questions, advice, and comments.  I answer every single person that sends me a Tweet.

 

 

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