The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 6 WEEKEND UPDATE October 15, 2016  |  Doug Shain


 

The Huddle – Opening Statement

Welcome to the Hail Mary WEEKEND UPDATE where I look at our GPP plays for NFL Week 6. You can check out my First Look article to see what I was thinking on Tuesday night but this is my most up to date thoughts on the weekend slate. I’ll be using ownership data from the Fantasy Aces Thursday slate to help me determine public and HuLo plays. Public plays will be the players who were 10% owned or more on those slates unless otherwise noted. These have been pretty accurate over the last few weeks and have gone a long way in helping to find value we might not have realized existed.

***I’m pulling analysis of all Monday players since the main slates no longer include Monday night.**

If you want to know more about my article and what it’s all about, please click here.

 

QB

Public PlaysTeamOppExpert PlaysTeamOppHuLo PlaysTeamOpp
Brian HoyerCHIvs JAXMatthew StaffordDETvs LABlake BortlesJAXat CHI
Russell WilsonSEAvs ATLBen RoethlisbergerPITat MIABrock OsweilerHOUvs IND
Alex SmithKCat OAKCarson WentzPHIat WASDerek CarrOAKvs KC
Tom BradyNEvs CINTyrod TaylorBUFvs SFEli ManningNYGvs BAL
Drew BreesNOvs CARDak PrescottDALat GBAndrew LuckINDat HOU
Cam NewtonCARat NO
Marcus MariotaTENvs CLE
Colin KaepernickSFat BUF

 

– Go home general public, you’re so very drunk. Colin Kaepernick was the most widely owned QB on the Thursday slate. I mean, seriously? I know he’s really cheap, and I know he should be able to run the Chip Kelly offense perfectly, but do we really want to pin our hopes on a guy who hasn’t started a game in a year? Let’s not forget how bad Kaepernick was before he got benched for BLAINE FRICKING GABBERT last season. He’s also facing one of the better defenses in the NFL…on the road…on the East Coast….in an early game. There’s “well thought out” contrarian, there’s “stupid” contrarian, and then there’s “making Colin Kaepernick the most widely owned GPP QB given these conditions” contrarian. I wouldn’t touch him even at 1% owned with my enemy’s team, let alone my own.  Brian Hoyer: Elite QB.  Jay Cutler isn’t getting his job back, is he?  Hoyer has been excellent during his time as Bears QB, leading the NFL in passing yards the last three weeks. A home game against the Jags isn’t going to stop that level of production. He’ll be highly owned, but I’ll still be on him because of his price. Other highly owned QB’s I’ll be looking heavily at are Marcus Mariota (anyone vs CLE is in play) and Drew Brees (always use the Saints at home). Can you imagine the upside that Mariota would bring if he were actually allowed to run a little bit? Look at what he did last week to see what could be. I was pretty high on Russell Wilson leading into this week, but I preferred him to not be as widely owned as he is. If I use a guy who relies on his feet to get me points I want to do that at 4%, not 12%.

– I like Tom Brady, but I think I can do better by using a cheaper QB with a lower ownership. Hello, Big Ben! How ya doin’, Derek Carr?  I couldn’t believe the ownership was so low on both of those guys. If I had to guess I’d say that Ben is going to end up being more widely owned than Carr but I’m on board with both guys given where they currently stand in ownership.

– As for another Brady pivot, is that Eli Manning I see in the corner? Ok, maybe Eli isn’t as safe as the other two, but I do like the idea of stacking him with OBJ and winning all the monies when they have a huge bounce back week.  You know it’s coming, and it’s not going to take long to get them there. THIS is the week that I’m going to use the Giants in a GPP. Last week they were a very popular play and they were really bad. This week I can’t see anyone using them as they are going up against one of the better pass defenses in the league. Everything is pointing down for the G-men this weekend; that’s the time I like to strike. Two weeks ago it was PIT, last week it was DET (and OAK to a lesser extent), this week it could very well be the Giants. You will definitely see an Eli/OBJ stack out of me somewhere.

– Lost in all the Bears’ offensive hoopla is the fact that their defense is terrible. This Bears/Jags matchup could have some fireworks and I’m all over Bortles this week. I actually would use him over Hoyer, who I like a lot. It’s not unreasonable to think that a Bortles/Robinson stack would be in the top 3 for scoring this weekend. I’m all over this duo.

– Carson Wentz looks amazing, and I’m more than happy to use him against a rough WSH secondary. Dak is an interesting case because he’s going to be touted quite a bit, but I just don’t love the idea of him going into Lambeau. I’m probably in fade mode for a GPP, especially since I know the pros are going to be using him a lot more than the public. I don’t want to face a bunch of Dak lineups loaded with players picked by the sharks. I’d rather not fight for that piece of the pie.

– If Eli isn’t the bounce back QB this week then maybe it’s Brock Osweiler. He’s not a very good QB, but his offense is loaded and the Colts defense is bad. While I don’t find Osweiler to be all that talented, I can’t have three of his WR on my plays list and not have some fantasy intrigue in the QB. This is so much more a matchup play than a talent play.

My guys: Marcus Mariota, Ben Roethlisberger, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Eli Manning, Brock Osweiler

 

RB

Public PlaysTeamOppExpert PlaysTeamOppHuLo PlaysTeamOpp
LeSean McCoyBUFvs SFCarlos HydeSFat BUFTodd GurleyLAat DET
Jordan HowardCHIvs JAXJames WhiteNEvs CINGio BernardCINat NE
Christine MichaelSEAvs ATLIsaiah CrowellCLEat TENEzekiel ElliottDALat GB
Le'Veon BellPITat MIADevonta FreemanATLat SEAJamaal CharlesKCat OAK
Lamar MillerHOUvs INDDarren SprolesPHIat WAS
DeMarco MurrayTENvs CLETevin ColemanATLat SEA

 

– There’s chalk, and then there’s Shady McCoy. The dude was nearly 50% owned in the Aces Thursday GPP. That’s a monster number for a guy that’s not going to give you a great deal of salary relief. That said, the 49ers have been giving up a ton of rushing yards the last few weeks, and that means Shady should be in line for a big game. He’s the first name I clicked on for every lineup I make, and I’m more than happy to find differentiation elsewhere in my lineup. It worked last week with Jordan Hoard and his high ownership, and it should work with McCoy this weekend. Speaking of Howard, I will also be using him a lot. He’s too versatile, too big a part of the offense, and too cheap not to use. Quite honestly, I like all the chalky RB this week and will probably find most of them in my lineups. The RB position is pretty weak once you get past the top 10 guys this week, and I just don’t see a need to get cute at this position when I can roster studs at QB, WR, and TE for crazy low ownership. Sometimes we’ve got to work smarter, not harder when making our lineups.

– It hasn’t been pretty, but Carlos Hyde has been very good this year. He keeps getting into the end zone as Chip Kelly hasn’t abandoned the run in garbage time. There should be plenty of that this weekend, and Hyde should get his usual allotment of touches and goal line carries. I’m not a huge proponent of his, but he’s cheap and productive. James White doesn’t have a huge ownership number, but the pros seem to realize how much more NE uses their scat back when Tom Brady plays as opposed to when he doesn’t. It’s not a shock at all how much White was used last week as Brady just aired it out all game. I’m pretty confident that is going to happen again this week, and I’ve got a LOT of the underpriced White in my lineups. Let’s not forget that we don’t need a monster out of him to pay off his paltry salary, and he allows you to go big elsewhere (like a high end TE, which we want this week).

– There’s little love out there for Todd Gurley, but he’s not been the bust people would like you to think he is. I’m still happy to use him if he fits into my lineup. I can totally see NE going ground and pound against the Bengals since it worked so well for the Cowboys. I expect to see a much larger workload for Blount this weekend. As much as I like SEA in Week 6, that doesn’t mean I don’t like Freeman and Coleman. Just based on price I’ve been finding that I use Coleman a lot more on my teams.

– Ezekiel Elliott is at 5% ownership again. Even if that doubles, it’s still too low. When are people going to learn? I’m definitely going to get him into a lot of lineups this weekend.

My Guys: LeSean McCoy, Jordan Howard, Le’Veon Bell, DeMarco Murray, James White, Ezekiel Elliott, Lamar Miller, Tevin Coleman

 

 

WR

Public PlaysTeamOppExpert PlaysTeamOppHuLo PlaysTeamOpp
Cameron MeredithCHIat JAXAntonio BrownPITat MIAAlshon JefferyCHIat JAX
Marvin JonesDETvs LAJarvis LandryMIAvs PITRishard MatthewsTENvs CLE
Chris HoganNEvs CINJeremy KerleySFat BUFTavon AustinLAat DET
Sammie CoatesPITat MIAMichael CrabtreeOAKvs KCDeAndre HopkinsHOUvs IND
Brandon CooksNOvs CARAmari CooperOAKvs KCDeSean JacksonWSHvs PHI
Kelvin BenjaminCARat NOCole BeasleyDALat GBBrandon LaFellCINat NE
Will FullerHOUvs INDWillie SneadNOvs CAROdell Beckham Jr.NYGvs BAL
Jeremy MaclinKCat OAKDoug BaldwinSEAvs ATLAllen RobinsonJAXvs CHI
Tyler LockettSEAvs ATLT.Y. HiltonINDat HOU
Julian EdelmanNEvs CINJalen StrongHOUvs IND

 

– Is Cam Meredith an actual thing now? He looked so good in Week 5, but we’ve seen guys like this come and go so often (Kevin Ogletree, anyone?). If I’m using a Bears WR, it’s going to be Alshon this week. I’ll take the guy with the history at a much lower ownership. I was shocked at how much people seem to trust this one week wonder. How many Cam Meredith/Colin Kaepernick lineups are we going to see? That just looks gross to write. I’ll pass.

– The Week 6 WR list was the most wrong I’ve been all year when predicting ownership trends. I was completely wrong on guys like DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, T.Y. Hilton, and Antonio Brown. I was sure they’d all be widely owned, but none of them were more than 6% on the Aces Thursday GPP. I know that those numbers change, but it’s rare to see a guy go from 5% to 20% in 3 days. If I was ranking them (not counting stacking considerations), I’d go Hilton, Hopkins, Brown, Robinson; however, all four should end up being “my guys”. T.Y. Hilton destroys the Texans in Houston. I don’t know why that is, but over his last 3 games there he’s had over 400 yards receiving with 4 TD. He’s been playing out of his mind this year, and he may very well end up being my #1 WR play of the weekend. At 4% ownership (even if it doubles by Sunday), I couldn’t be more all-in.

– Take a look at that public plays list. There’s not a stud on that list. People are getting WAY too cute at WR this year. The public has gotten too “smart”, and I think this is the week it bites them in butt. That’s not to say that Jeremy Maclin, Will Fuller, etc. don’t have good matchups, because they do, but I’m not playing the ownership percentage game with them when I can get the four guys mentioned above at one-third of the rate. Of the public plays, I’d most likely use Maclin in my rotation. I’m pretty much fading all the other plays.

– One thing I’ve learned over the last couple of years is that the DFS experts love target hogs. That’s why you see guys like Jarvis Landry, Cole Beasley, Willie Snead, Julian Edelman, and Jeremy Kerley on the Expert list. I think they make great cash game plays, but I’m not sure any of them have the upside I’m looking for in a GPP. I’d much prefer to use game breakers like Amari Cooper, Tyler Lockett, and Tavon Austin in my GPP. Austin, in particular, stands out to me. LA is forcing the ball to him and trying to get him touches in as many ways as possible. He’s not a volume guy so we really have to try to predict when those touches are going to turn into long TDs. Given how poorly the Lions defense plays, I’m going to go out on a limb and say it’s this weekend. At his low price, I’m more than willing to take the chance that I’m right as long as I surround him with some safer plays.

– Brandon LaFell, Jalen Strong, and Rishard Matthews are my favorite punt WR plays this weekend. LaFell is going to see plenty of garbage time targets as the Pats try to neutralize A.J. Green. Strong has seen his targets increase each week so far this year, from zero in Week 1 all the up to nine in Week 5. You can’t ask for a better matchup than at home against the Colts. I’m going to want exposure here but don’t want to pay up for Hopkins, then maybe I’d take a chance on Strong instead of Fuller. Finally, someone has to step up at the WR position for TEN. They can’t just throw to Murray and Walker all season. I think that guy could be Matthews. He scored a TD last week and is slowly gaining Mariota’s trust. A game against the Browns is another opportunity for them to continue to develop a strong chemistry.

– My big call of the week is a bounce back game from OBJ and the Giants. I’m not a fan of using him outside of a stack with Eli, but I will be using a lot of the two of them to try to maximize upside. I know that it’s a very risky move with the way that they are playing, but it’s those risks (like using PIT in Week 4) that can move you up a leaderboard very quickly. Go big or go home.

My guys: Jeremy Maclin, Antonio Brown, Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham, T.Y. Hilton, Rishard Matthews, Brandon LaFell, Amari Cooper, Alshon Jeffery

 

 

TE

Public PlaysTeamOppExpert PlaysTeamOppHuLo PlaysTeamOpp
Delanie Walker (TEN) vs CLETENvs CLEZach Miller (CHI) vs JAXCHIvs JAXLance Kendricks (LA) @ DETLAat DET
Martellus Bennett (NE) vs CINNEvs CINJesse James (PIT) @ MIAPITat MIACoby Fleener (NO) vs CARNOvs CAR
Greg Olsen (CAR) @ NOCARat NOTravis Kelce (KC) @ OAKKCat OAKJason Witten (DAL) @ GBDALat GB
Jimmy Graham (SEA) vs ATLSEAvs ATLRob Gronkowski (NE) vs CINNEvs CIN

 

– On the Thursday Aces game, it was Walker and Olsen and a then a bunch of “guys”. Both of the big TEs were 20%+ owned. I’m not shocked by either of those numbers, but it does give me a little bit of pause when using Walker outside of a TEN stack with Mariota. There are a number of other TE I like this weekend that were at less than half the ownership, but with just as high of an upside. I think I’d rather use Travis Kelce and Jimmy Graham over Delanie Walker given the discrepancy in ownership percentage. I’m really high on both of those guys and wouldn’t be shocked with games of 6-100-1 from both of them. This is one of those weeks where I can see using a TE in your Flex spot since Graham, Walker, Kelce, and Gronk can all give you WR2 numbers for WR3/4 prices. That’s a really underutilized strategy but one that could pay off when everything lines up properly (it does this weekend).

– If I’m totally punting TE then it’s Lance Kendricks against a weak Lions LB corps. The one thing Kendricks does well is get behind a defense for a big play. DET gives up a lot of big plays to TE. It’s a really good match.

– Gronk gonna go full Gronk this weekend. If you can afford him, then you should buy in at his 1% ownership (it’ll go up, but not 20% up). 1 FLIPPING PERCENT….GRONK!

My guys: Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham, Delanie Walker, Rob Gronkowski, Lance Kendricks

 

DEF

Public PlaysOppExpert PlaysOppHuLo PlaysOpp
Buffalo Billsvs SFPittsburgh Steelersat MIANew York Giantsvs BAL
Detroit Lionsvs LATennessee Titansvs CLENew England Patriotsvs CIN
Chicago Bearsat JAXSeattle Seahawksvs ATL
Houston Texansvs IND

 

 

– Defense is kind of gross this week, but at least we have the Bills taking on the 49ers going for us. Buffalo has been playing great defense lately and now they get one of the worst offenses coming East for an early game…a team that is now starting Colin Kaepernick. I find it very fascinating that both Kaepernick and the Bills Defense are the highest owned players at their positions. This is a very chalky play, but it’s OK to use chalk; don’t forget about that. I’ll take anyone against the Colts for the sack potential alone, but I’m not sure I want to compete with people for ownership on the Texans. I was a little surprised by the fact that they were nearly 10% on the Thursday slate. I’m not going anywhere near the Bears against a JAX offense that can put up 30 points.

– There are a lot of people that are way down on Ryan Tannehill (for good reason). This should inflate the number of experts that are using the Steelers. I don’t trust them, and they are a fade for me. Anyone playing the Browns should be widely owned, and I expect that’s what we will see with the Titans. I like the matchup and will probably have them on some teams.

– How bad did the Bengals look on Sunday? They should be a little better with Tyler Eifert potentially back, but I still think NE can handle them this weekend. There could be some garbage time points for CIN, but NE will get theirs as well. I’m not sold on the Ravens at all, and the Giants should be slowly getting healthy for this one. I can see NYG surprising a lot of people with a big game in Week 6.

My guys: Buffalo Bills, Tennessee Titans, Houston Texans, New England Patriots

 

Best of luck this week! I hope you all kick some butt and make a ton of money. Make sure to check out all the great content at The Fake Football including the Cheat Sheets (of which I have a part in writing). You’ll find a ton of analysis, data, and sample lineups. It’s well worth the cost of subscription.

Your feedback is always welcome.  You can find me on Twitter @bankster17. I’m around all the time for questions, advice, and comments.  I answer every single person that sends me a Tweet.

 

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