The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 5 WEEKEND UPDATE
October 8, 2016 | Doug Shain
The Huddle – Opening Statement
Welcome to the Hail Mary WEEKEND UPDATE where I look at our GPP plays for NFL Week 4. You can check out my First Look article to see what I was thinking on Tuesday night, but this is my most up to date thoughts on the weekend slate. I’ll be using ownership data from the Fantasy Aces Thursday slate to help me determine public and HuLo plays. Public plays will be the players who were 10% owned or more on those slates unless otherwise noted. These have been pretty accurate over the last few weeks and have gone a long way in helping to find value we might not have realized existed.
***The public is starting to get smart. They’re rightfully all over Wentz, Hoyer, Carr, J. Howard, Inman, Jordy, Coates, Ertz, and Marty Bennett. I thought they’d be pretty HuLo. What that intelligence has done, however, it made guys like ARod, Rivers, Jordan Reed, Gronk, Benjamin/Williams, A.J. Green, Matt Jones, and Zeke all low owned and therefore HuLo. I love some of the opportunities that we have presented to us this weekend.***
***I’m pulling analysis of all Monday players since the main slates no longer include Monday night.**
If you want to know more about my article and what it’s all about, please click here.
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|Tom Brady (NE) @ CLE||Philip Rivers (SD) @ OAK||Matthew Stafford (DET) vs PHI|
|Brian Hoyer (CHI) @ IND||Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs NYG||Marcus Mariota (TEN) @ MIA|
|Carson Wentz (PHI) @ DET||Trevor Siemian/Paxton Lynch (DEN) vs ATL|
|Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs NYJ||Case Keenum (LA) vs BUF|
|Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) @ PIT||Matt Ryan (ATL) @ DEN|
|Eli Manning (NYG) @ GB||Andy Dalton (CIN) @ DAL|
|Derek Carr (OAK) vs SD||Kirk Cousins (WSH) @ BAL|
|Andrew Luck (IND) vs CHI|
– I was floored when I saw the Thursday QB ownership percentages. Tom Brady was only the 4th highest owned QB on the week. I can see that number increasing by kickoff, but he was still at less than half the ownership of Ben Roethlisberger. I love Big Ben, but given the choice of the two QB’s, I’m going Brady this week every time. Add in the ownership discrepancy and Brady looks like a GPP value at this point. Go figure. He’s now firmly in consideration for both cash and GPP. Hoyer, Wentz, and Fitz were all guys that I had looked at if they were lower owned, but there’s no way I’m rostering those guys with over 10% of the field on them. If I had to choose one, it’d be Wentz. Derek Carr was the 2nd most widely owned QB at almost 3x the ownership of Rivers. This is nuts and I’ve now moved Rivers firmly into my top tier of GPP QB’s. Check the sample lineups in the Fake Football cheat sheets to see who I surround him with. I wouldn’t touch a Giant with your team this week, let alone mine. There seems to be this thought that NYG is going to go off this weekend because of how much OBJ is complaining. I think it’s much more reasonable to think that OBJ is just a head case that that is going to take some time to figure out. I’d rather be wrong and watch them hit big off my team than be right and have them ruin my GPP.
– Just as I suspected, Aaron Rodgers wasn’t at the top of ownership percentage this weekend. He sits right at the cusp of the top 10 most widely owned QB’s this weekend. I’m more than happy to use Rodgers at 10% ownership; much more so than getting Hoyer at 10% ownership. I think we can see a Big Ben/AB type game from Rodgers and Jordy. That said, Jordy was higher owned than I expected so maybe it’s in your best interest to use a Rodgers/Adams or Rodgers/Rodgers stack to exploit ARod’s low ownership. I already mentioned Rivers, but it’s worth saying again how shocked I was at how low he was owned. The Raiders have the worst pass defense in the NFL. Rivers has been just fine this year and will most likely have to throw to keep up with a high-powered OAK offense. He’s right at the tippy top of my QB plays.
– If Aaron Rodgers is this week’s Big Ben in respect to his late Sunday explosion, then Stafford might be Big Ben in the respect of a stud that will bounce back in a rough matchup. The Lions looked awful against Chicago, and I can definitely see people shying away from them against a solid Eagles defense. I’m going to run towards DET based on Stafford’s full year of excellence, not run away from one bad game. They’re going to get Theo Riddick more involved in the passing game and maybe a benching was just what Golden Tate needed to get his head out of his posterior. I’ll be on Stafford this week for sure. Paxton Lynch looked good in relief of Siemian, and I’m comfortable using whichever one starts for the Broncos.
– I’m thrilled to see how little love there was for Dalton and Luck. I was pretty sure Dalton would be overlooked and planned to use him accordingly in a “better than you think” matchup in Dallas. I was very surprised to see how little love there was for Luck. I wrote extensively in my Tuesday article about how I think IND is in for a letdown after playing in London last weekend, so I won’t be on him, but if you want to fire away at a 4% owned Luck, I surely can’t blame you.
My guys: Philip Rivers, Andy Dalton, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Carson Wentz
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|Melvin Gordon (SD) @ OAK||LeGarrette Blount (NE) @ CLE||Matt Jones (WSH) @ BAL|
|Jordan Howard (CHI) @ IND||Terrance West (BAL) vs WSH||Isaiah Crowell (CLE) vs NE|
|DeMarco Murray (TEN) @ MIA||James White (NE) @ CLE||Bilal Powell (NYJ) @ PIT|
|Le’Veon Bell (PIT) vs NYJ||Lamar Miller (HOU) @ MIN||Devonta Freeman (ATL) @ DEN|
|C.J. Anderson (DEN) vs ATL||Todd Gurley (LA) vs BUF|
|Jerick McKinnon (MIN) vs HOU||Eddie Lacy (GB) vs NYG|
|Theo Riddick (DET) vs PHI||Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) vs CIN|
|DeAndre Washington (OAK) vs SD||Mike Gillislee (BUF) @ LA|
|Jalen Richard (OAK) vs SD|
|Kenneth Dixon (BAL) vs WSH|
– Jordan Howard is the most highly owned player at any position this week. Even with that, I still might play him because he’s got a ton of upside and his price is incredible. Just know that you have to great creative elsewhere to make that work for you. I’d be shocked if Theo Riddick wasn’t a focal point of the Lions’ offense this week. It would not shock me to see him get 12 targets and 10+ carries. Melvin Gordon keeps falling into the end zone from the 1 yard line so I’m going to keep playing him. I’m sold on DeMarco Murray, he’s a stud. Le’Veon Bell, by way of his reception upside, has a very high floor and will be my high end RB of choice if I have the cap space. The ownership on Jerick McKinnon nearly made me fall out of my seat. He was one of the 3 most highly owned players this week; I didn’t even think of him as a HuLo play. I don’t know what about his matchup is appealing to anyone. Is it that he’s cheap? I don’t see it, and I’m not using him. Don’t be shocked if a lot of the David Johnson ownership on Thursday shifts towards Le’Veon Bell and DeAndre Washington for Sunday. I prefer to spend of for Bell, we have no idea what Washington is, and it’s just a likely Jalen Richard gets the work. Either way, I think OAK throws a ton anyway.
– At some point NE has to stop throwing and just run, right? Big 4th quarter coming from Blount. On the other hand, it could be James White getting the touches if Brady is going to throw. I think there’s value in both guys, but not enough for me to use either.
– Did you know that Bilal Powell outsnapped Matt Forte last weekend? I think the Jets realize they went too hard with Forte early on and it’s time to limit his workload. The Steelers should get up big in this game and that means it’ll be Powell in for all those passing downs. He could be a very sneaky cheap play if you want to load up elsewhere on your team. I will keep putting Todd Gurley onto the HuLo list every week that he’s low-owned. He’s a special RB, and with the Rams playing as well as they are they are going to have to lean on the run game at some point to continue their momentum. I continue to believe in Devonta Freeman, and he keeps producing. I don’t care how often Coleman spells him, that’s only keeping him fresher. If LeSean McCoy’s injury keeps him out (or limited) on Sunday then Mike Gillislee is a really interesting play. He looked great last season when he got touches, and I think he’s the guy to own in BUF in the event of a McCoy issue. It’s a super risky play, but one worth keeping an eye on.
– I love the low ownership on Ezekiel Elliott. He’s matchup proof to me, and if he’s going to get 20 touches against anyone, even the Bengals, he’s worth a play. I still think that people are underestimating Isaiah Crowell. He leads the league in YPC against 8-man boxes, and CLE is going to have to run to keep Angry Tom Brady off the field. Even if the game gets out of hand late, Crowell should have some value early in this one. If he can get a score, he could be one of the best values on the board.
My guys: Isaiah Crowell, Theo Riddick, Ezekiel Elliott, DeMarco Murray, Jordan Howard, Le’Veon Bell, Melvin Gordon, Mike Gillislee, Todd Gurley (lord help me, I still believe)
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|Julian Edelman (NE) @ CLE||Alshon Jeffery (CHI) @ IND||Jamison Crowder (WSH) @ BAL|
|Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) vs ATL||Jordan Matthews (PHI) @ DET||Marvin Jones (DET) vs PHI|
|Odell Beckham Jr (NYG) @ GB||Jarvis Landry (MIA) vs TEN||Terrelle Pryor (CLE) vs NE|
|T.Y. Hilton (IND) vs CHI||Tyrell Williams (SD) @ OAK||DeVante Parker (MIA) vs TEN|
|Steve Smith Sr (BAL) vs WSH||Dontrelle Iman (SD) @ OAK||Julio Jones (ATL) @ DEN|
|Antonio Brown (PIT) vs NYJ||Eddie Royal (CHI) @ IND||Demaryius Thomas (DEN) vs ATL|
|Amari Cooper (OAK) vs SD||Sammie Coates (PIT) vs NYJ||Brice Butler (DAL) @ CIN|
|A.J. Green (CIN) vs DAL||Quincy Enunwa (NYJ) @ PIT||Davante Adams (GB) vs NYG|
|Michael Crabtree (OAK) vs SD||Robert Woods (BUF) @ LA|
|Brandon Marshall (NYJ) @ PIT||Travis Benjamin (SD) @ OAK|
|Jordy Nelson (GB) vs NYG||DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) @ MIN|
– Apparently the public thinks the Jets/Steelers game is going to be very high scoring. They have made 4 of the WR in that game (AB, Coates, BMarsh, and Enunwa) all over 10% owned on the Thursday slate. Obviously AB is the most highly owned of the bunch, but Marshall wasn’t that far behind. I was dead wrong about him because I thought he’d be HuLo. I’m not sure what the Steelers have done defensively, nor the Jets offensively, for the public to have this much faith in the NYJ passing game. I’m taking a hard pass. Of the more widely owned plays, the guys I’m looking at are A.J. Green, Jordy Nelson, and Steve Smith Sr. I love the matchup for all of them, and the price on Smitty is particularly of interest to me. I talked about the Giants and OBJ in the QB section, but I’ll reiterate that I think it’s just as likely that OBJ is a head case and will take some time to figure things out as it is that the G-Men will suddenly break out of their funk. Don’t let them be your problem. Since many people have asked: Crabtree in cash, Cooper in GPP.
– I like the matchup for the Philly passing game in DET. Jordan Matthews and Carson Wentz could be something special for years. I’m down with using him for sure this weekend. I loved Dontrelle Inman as a sneaky play this weekend. I don’t love Dontrelle Inman as the highest owned WR for the Chargers. That’s insane. I’ll take Travis Benjamin and pay the extra money while everyone else takes the shot in the dark with Inman. Eddie Royal is about to become everyone’s favorite WR, and I can see his ownership jumping into the top 10 by Sunday. I like the matchup, but, seriously, it’s Eddie Royal. I just can’t trust the guy.
– WR2 are killing the Ravens this year. That means we can chill out on DeSean Jackson and go back to Jamison Crowder. I don’t know what happened to him last weekend, but he’s got a good matchup and could put up a good game this week. I like how Dallas used Brice Butler against SF and I want to see how that works out again this week. He’s got a ton of talent. If people are down on DET, I’ll gladly stack Jones and Stafford. Demaryius Thomas looks like whole different guy than last year. He’s been on fire for DEN no matter who the QB has been. I should have seen this coming as he was highly productive with the garbage that was Tim Tebow. Somehow Julio Jones was at 1% ownership on Thursday. I don’t care if he’s playing the ’86 Bears, Jones should never be 1% owned. If you do more than one lineup and you don’t throw Jones in one, you get what you deserve if he has another big game. Robert Woods, Davante Adams, and DeVante Parker are all cheaper shots that I’d take as I feel each is carving out a bigger role in their offense.
My guys: Travis Benjamin, A.J. Green, Jordy Nelson, Steve Smith, Brice Butler, Marvin Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Jordan Matthews, DeVante Parker, Amari Cooper
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|Martellus Bennett (NE) @ CLE||Will Tye (NYG) @ GB||Dennis Pitta (BAL) vs WSH|
|Zach Miller (CHI) @ IND||Jordan Reed (WSH) @ BAL||Rob Gronkowski (NE) @ CLE|
|Zach Ertz (PHI) @ DET||Delanie Walker (TEN) @ MIA||Jason Witten (DAL) vs CIN|
|Hunter Henry (SD) @ OAK||Richard Rodgers (GB) vs NYG|
|Kyle Rudolph (MIN) vs HOU||C.J. Uzomah (CIN) @ DAL|
– I guess Gronk isn’t all the way back because the whole world is using Bennett and fading the big guy. That would be one heck of a gutsy play to go with Gronkowski, but he and Brady are magic. If I’m doing more than one lineup then I’m probably considering it. My Fab Four of Miller, Ertz, Henry, and Rudolph have all graduated to Big Boy status. The world know about them, but that still won’t stop me from using them. I’m particularly fond of Ertz and Rudolph.
– Good thing I didn’t do an entire write-up on the return of Tyler Eifert. That’s so frustrating because it changes my entire outlook on the Bengals offense. I still like them but I don’t love them. Obviously I’m not using Eifert, but I’ll pivot those shares to an underowned Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker.
– C.J. Uzomah is playing better than you realize for the Bengals. I liked the matchup for Eifert in this game, and I like it for Uzomah as well (only a little less because Uzomah is a lesser talent). Richard Rodgers piques my interest in a good matchup against the cluster-mess Giants. He’s a good target it you want to be a HuLo Packer Stacker.
My guys: Martellus Bennett, Zach Ertz, Kyle Rudolph, Hunter Henry, Jordan Reed, Delanie Walker
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|Buffalo Bills @ LA||Pittsburgh Steelers vs NYJ||Philadelphia Eagles @ DET|
|Minnesota Vikings vs HOU||Miami Dolphins vs TEN||Chicago Bears @ IND|
|Denver Broncos vs ATL||New England Patriots @ CLE|
|Los Angeles Rams vs BUF|
|Cincinnati Bengals @ DAL|
– The Bills were overwhelmingly the most popular defense this week. I didn’t even have them on my radar. Then I thought about it and it makes a lot of sense. They get at the QB and can turn the ball over. LA is a fraud at 3-1 so to get a good matchup like that on the cheap is probably a good idea. I approve. MIN has one of the best defenses in the league and the last time HOU went on the road they got walloped. I don’t know if that was how things are going to go or not, but I’m willing to give it a shot this weekend. I don’t care how good Matt Ryan looks, the Broncos are really tough at home.
– I think Ryan Fitzpatrick can have somewhat of a bounce back game in Week 5, but those INT’s are looming and PIT plays very well at home. The Titans are a bad offense, but it’s not like Miami is all that good of a team. The public and experts can have them, I’ll pass.
– New England was only 3% owned on the Thursday slate? Against the Browns? What am I missing? Did the public get scared off by the two GPP ruining performances by the Browns the last two weeks? They gave me pause as well, but I don’t see that happening to a Belichick defense. I’m all over the Pats at a low ownership. I’ll take Philly against just about anyone. They are so fast on defense, and their return game is on point. The Colts just played in London and don’t have a bye. That’s insane. Andrew Luck has been very turnover prone so I’ll look at anyone playing them. Add in the London issue and the Bears are a very sneaky GPP play. I also think this could be the week we see Dak look like a rookie. The Bengals have one of the most underrated defenses in football, and I can see them being very underowned against a public team like the Cowboys.
My guys: Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears
Best of luck this week! I hope you all kick some butt and make a ton of money. Make sure to check out all the great content at The Fake Football including the Cheat Sheets (of which I have a part in writing). You’ll find a ton of analysis, data, and sample lineups. It’s well worth the cost of subscription.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17. I’m around all the time for questions, advice, and comments. I answer every single person that sends me a Tweet.