The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 3 WEEKEND UPDATE September 24, 2016  |  Doug Shain


The Huddle – Opening Statement

Welcome to the Hail Mary WEEKEND UPDATE where I look at our GPP plays for NFL Week 3. You can check out my First Look article to see what I was thinking on Tuesday night but this is my most up to date thoughts on the weekend slate. I’ll be using ownership data from the Fantasy Aces Thursday slate to help me determine public and HuLo plays. These have been pretty accurate over the last few weeks and have gone a long way in helping to find value we might not have realized existed.

If you want to know more about my article and what it’s all about, please click here.

 

QB

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Matt Ryan (ATL) @ NO Derek Carr (OAK) @ TEN Carson Palmer (ARI) @ BUF
Dak Prescott (DAL) vs CHI Joe Flacco (BAL) @ JAX Eli Manning (NYG) vs WSH
Marcus Mariota (TEN) vs OAK Blake Bortles (JAX) vs BAL Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) @ PHI
Andrew Luck (IND) vs SD Ryan Tannehill (MIA) vs CLE Cam Newton (CAR) vs MIN
Philip Rivers (SD) @ IND Jameis Winston (TB) LA
Drew Brees (NO) vs ATL Alex Smith (KC) vs NYJ

 

– Well then, looks like I actually had a pretty good idea on the pulse of the common man as I think I had four of the six most owned QB already in the Public Plays list. I’m shocked, actually, that Ryan Tannehill and Blake Bortles aren’t there. They have outstanding matchups and are two of my favorite QB’s this weekend. Both saw a decent amount of ownership but not nearly as high as the six on the list. Of the players on the Public Plays list I most like Mariota, Rivers, and Luck. Even with a high ownership it might be worth using Mariota at his low price tag to allow you to go big at some of the other positions. He’s facing a terrible pass D in the Raiders and he’s actually been better than you think this year (the Robbie Ray of QB’s, if you will). I wouldn’t touch Dak with your team, let alone mine.  Drew Brees has put up very pedestrian numbers in his most recent stretch of games against ATL. I’m totally off him today.

– The four QB’s on the expert list are being talked up by the “people in the know” but the public hadn’t caught on by Thursday. I fully expect Tannehill’s ownership to increase a lot before kickoff on Sunday. I like him, and he’s one of my favorite plays this week, but for just a little more I can have Bortles or Eli. Both of those QB’s are safer than Tannehill even if they don’t have quite as good of matchups. If I’m choosing between the two it’s going to be Bortles. I can see him being the highest scoring QB on the entire slate and I’m predicting a huge breakout game for Allen Robinson.  I also like Flacco, although not nearly as much as last week.

– I don’t get the Eli hate this week. Is it Josh Norman? Do people not realize that Norman can only cover 1 WR and the Giants have 3 really good ones? The WSH secondary is poor and I can see Eli having a field day. Seeing his ownership so low makes me like him even more. Cam Newton and Ben Roethlisberger were both 6% owned and under. That’s quite promising. I know that neither of them have incredible matchups but both are dynamic offensive players that could win you a week at 3% ownership if they just go out and play like they usually do. Cam can even suffer a little drop off against a great Vikings D and still vault you up a GPP.  Both are in consideration for me now that I know that the public doesn’t like them.  I expect a big week out of Alex Smith with the KC run game a little iffy right now and the Jets pass D very iffy.

My guys: Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota, Eli Manning, Ryan Tannehill, Cam Newton, Alex Smith

RB

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
David Johnson (ARI) @ BUF CJ Anderson (DEN) @ CIN Mark Ingram (NO) vs ATL
DeMarco Murray (TEN) vs OAK Jay Ajayi (MIA) vs CLE Todd Gurley (LA) @ TB
Theo Riddick (DET) @ GB Christine Michael (SEA) vs SF Isaiah Crowell (CLE) @ MIA
Melvin Gordon (SD) @ IND Cameron Artis-Payne (CAR) vs MIN Frank Gore (IND) vs SD
Charles Sims (TB) vs LA Ryan Mathews (PHI) vs PIT
DeAngelo Williams (PIT) @ PHI Devonta Freeman (ATL) @ NO
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) vs CHI Eddie Lacy (GB) vs DET

 

– Just like with the QB position, I was able to correctly predict 4 of the 7 most highly owned RB from the Thursday slate. I didn’t see Riddick, Sims, or Murray being so popular. I suppose it makes sense for Riddick and Sims with the starters out for both teams but neither has a great matchup and I want no part of either of them. I’m aggravated about Murray because I thought I was going to be able to get him at a little bit of an ownership discount but no such luck. He has a great matchup and everyone knows it. I’ll still use him but I’m much less enthusiastic about it. There are HuLo players that I can use for cheaper and just improve my WR instead. I don’t care about the ownership, I still will use Melvin Gordon in just about every lineup. He’s got a great matchup and his price is too good to pass on. David Johnson and Dwill are in play every time they get on the field as a starter.

– There aren’t a lot of guys that the pros are talking up that aren’t on the Public Play list. Of all the guys on this list, obviously CJ Anderson has the best pedigree, but Christine Michael has the best matchup. He’s an Internet darling so he’ll be very highly owned among the big boys but if you’re playing on a smaller site away from the pros you should be ok with him. Let’s not forget that the Seahawks RB thrashed SF last year for well over 300 yards rushing and almost 100 yards receiving in two games and Thomas Rawls isn’t playing this week (most likely). Michael is cheap and the upside is huge.

Ryan Mathews leads the NFL in goal line touches. I want a player that’s a workhorse for his team and who gets the ball inside the 5. I don’t understand his 1% ownership rate. He’s firmly on my radar now that I know what a big contrarian play he is. Mark Ingram and Eddie Lacy are also on my radar at under 10% owned because of how poorly their QB’s have either played against this week’s opponent (Brees vs ATL) or how poorly they’re playing overall (Rodgers with 14 straight games of a sub 100 QB rating). Something has to change for NO and GB and it might be a greater emphasis on the running game. I like both these RB for 80+ yards and a TD this weekend. If Todd Gurley breaks out this weekend, you’ll be the only one who owns him.

My guys: Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, DeMarco Murray, Christine Michael, Ryan Mathews, Eddie Lacy, Mark Ingram

 

 

WR

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Allen Robinson (JAX) vs BAL Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) @ BUF Tyler Lockett (SEA) vs SF
Mike Wallace (BAL) @ JAX Marvin Jones (DET) @ GB Victor Cruz (NYG) vs WSH
Antonio Brown (PIT) @ PHI Stefon Diggs (MIN) @ CAR Josh Doctson (WSH) @ NYG
Tajae Sharpe (TEN) vs OAK Eric Decker (NYJ) @ KC Quincy Enunwa (NYJ) @ KC
Travis Benjamin (SD) @ IND Sterling Shepard (NYG) vs WSH Jeremy Maclin (KC) vs NYJ
Willie Snead (NO) vs ATL Jarvis Landry (MIA) vs CLE TY Hilton (IND) vs SD
Julio Jones (ATL) @ NO Odell Beckham Jr (NYG) vs WSH
Amari Cooper (OAK) @ TEN Devante Parker (MIA) vs CLE
Tyrell Williams (SD) @ IND
Jordy Nelson (GB) vs DET
Philip Dorsett (IND) vs SD

 

– The biggest shock to me this week, hands down, is that Stefon Diggs isn’t the mostly widely owned WR. Now, I don’t know how big of a price difference he has on Aces vs DK, but I know he’s a huge value on DK and I expect him to be very widely owned come game time (assuming he plays). There are some really interesting names on the Public Plays list that I don’t want any part of. Those names include Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones, and Willie Snead. I don’t trust the Packers passing offense right now, Julio is constantly banged up and I’m not paying nearly $10k for a guy who might not play an entire game, and Drew Brees struggles against ATL so I’m not projecting big things from that passing game. I do really like Mike Wallace against JAX, Allen Robinson (I think he’s the highest scoring WR this weekend), and Travis Benjamin (legit #1 WR the rest of the year). Amari Cooper is also a WR that I think has a huge game against the Titans. He was one controversial call away from having a monster game last weekend. He’s going to break out this week.

– The one player I’ve totally changed my mind on this weekend is Philip Dorsett. It’s going to Dorsett, not TY Hilton that sees a lot of Jason Verrett this weekend. Verrett doesn’t shadow anyone in the slot and TY Hilton plays the slot 60% of the time. Everyone is scared of a Hilton matchup this weekend but that puts him very much into HuLo territory. He’s moved firmly into the “my guys” list this week. He might actually be my #2 guy behind Allen Robinson at the WR position.

– There is a ton of fear with Odell Beckham this weekend against Josh Norman and that’s totally justified. Norman doesn’t shadow the slot but OBJ never plays the slot. Who does play in the slot for the Giants? That would be Sterling Shepard. He could have a monster game this weekend against a wretched WSH secondary. Decker is always in play because he never lets you down. Just know that his upside is limited and he may see increased attention if Brandon Marshall is inactive. I love Marvin Jones this weekend. He could do to GB what Stefon Diggs did last weekend.

– Tyler Lockett replaces Paul Richardson on this list as the guy from Seattle that I think busts out a long score against SF. He’s total boom or bust but I see a big boom coming. Josh Doctson continues to interest me because of the frequency with which he was targeted at the goal line last weekend. If DJax is limited or out, Doctson could be a very big play this weekend. I would definitely use him if I was throwing out multiple lineup iterations in a big GPP. Jeremy Maclin is near the top of my list for WR for Week 3. The Jets can’t stop any WR and Maclin is a target machine. DeVante Parker has also quietly been a target machine for Tannehill and he’s got an incredible matchup this weekend. His low ownership makes me very happy.

My guys: Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, Marvin Jones, Sterling Shepard, Jeremy Maclin, TY Hilton, Devante Parker, Josh Doctson

 

 

TE

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Delanie Walker (TEN) vs OAK Greg Olsen (CAR) vs MIN Clive Walford (OAK) @ TEN
Jordan Reed (WSH) @ NYG Dennis Pitta (BAL) @ JAX Jared Cook (GB) vs DET
Dwayne Allen (IND) vs SD Antonio Gates (SD) @ IND Jason Witten (DAL) @ CHI
Trey Burton (PHI) vs PIT Jesse James (PIT) @ PHI Kyle Rudolph (MIN) @ CAR

 

– The public is heavily invested in Delanie Walker (relatively speaking) and so am I. I love the matchup and the skill set. I don’t know if there’s a better TE in football at running down that seam than Walker. He’ll be in a lot of my lineups. I get why people like Reed, Allen, and Burton but I’m off all of them this weekend. Burton will be interesting next weekend if he continues to be a featured part of this offense but I’m not convinced he will be.

Dennis Pitta looked amazing last weekend and he could very well be Joe Flacco’s main target this weekend. I can’t believe I whiffed on him on the First Look so I’m very happy to correct that now. He’s firmly in my top three TE this weekend, especially at his rock bottom price. Big Ben trusts Jesse James so I trust Jesse James. He’s a great low price play this weekend.

– DET has been burned by TE two weeks in a row now. Week 1 could be explained by Rob Chudzinski’s offense being so TE-friendly but that doesn’t explain Week 2. What explains Week 2 is that DET has poor coverage from their LB. Jared Cook’s role expanded a bit for GB last weekend and this could be a breakout game for him. I love Kyle Rudolph in cash but I can make an argument for him in a GPP as well. His target share has been huge and if he keeps seeing targets, he’ll continue to be productive.  

My guys: Delanie Walker, Dennis Pitta, Jesse James, Kyle Rudolph

DEF

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Miami Dolphins vs CLE Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs LA New York Giants vs WSH
Arizona Cardinals @ BUF San Francisco 49ers @ SEA
Denver Broncos @ CIN Kansas City Chiefs vs NYJ
Seattle Seahawks vs SF

 

 

It’s almost too chalky to play the Dolphins defense this week against Cody Kessler and the Cleveland Browns. Miami was nearly 50% owned on the Thursday slate and I think that goes up to about 60% by Sunday. They are an inexpensive defense with one of the best matchups you’re going to see all season. Honestly, I’d rather have them in cash than a GPP because I don’t want to deal with that level of ownership on a team that isn’t elite. I’d rather spend up on a premium defense, even in a worse matchup.

I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but the LA offense is really bad. Tampa Bay stops the run as well as any team in the NFL. The only things the Rams could potentially do well is run. That won’t happen this week. This is a defense I’m going to pay very close attention to as the week goes on. I’m totally ok with spending up for any of the 3 elite defenses (ARI, DEN, SEA) with everyone and their mother riding the Dolphins.

– Are we sure Seattle is a good offense at this point? Russell Wilson is hurting and it wouldn’t shock me if the 49ers took it to them this weekend. They are not a great defense but every Chip Kelly team is capable of getting to the QB and making big plays on special teams. This isn’t a safe pick but it’s got potential in a GPP. I also like the Giants against a struggling Redskins team. New York held the Saints to 13 points in Week 2 and could have a similar result this weekend. They spent a ton of money on defense this off season and it seems to be paying off. I’d strike now before other people realize.

My guys: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins

Best of luck this week! I hope you all kick some butt and make a ton of money. Make sure to check out all the great content at The Fake Football including the Cheat Sheets (of which I have a part in writing). You’ll find a ton of analysis, data, and sample lineups. It’s well worth the cost of subscription.

Your feedback is always welcome.  You can find me on Twitter @bankster17. I’m around all the time for questions, advice, and comments.  I answer every single person that sends me a Tweet.

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