The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 2 First Look September 15, 2015  |  Doug Shain


 

Check out our NFL DFS Cheat Sheet!

The Huddle – Opening Statement

What a wild Week 1 we had. Be careful not to overemphasize the results you saw in the first week of the season. Plenty of studs played poorly last week and they’re bound to rebound, just as plenty of league average players had big games that they’re unlikely to repeat. Don’t be that guy who overpays for Kevin Ogletree off of one good game.

Some of the best plays of the week for me were added to the article for the Weekend Update. Make sure you’re checking back on Saturday afternoon because I’m going to update this article as things change during the week. Some of the additions I made to the article for the Week 1 Weekend Update were Carson Palmer, Chris Ivory, and Danny Woodhead. If you stuck to the plan and used the article then you probably had a good week. Let’s hope to keep it rolling this week.

To take a look at how I rank the players and a lists of my “musts” when building a GPP lineup, click here. Best of luck this week!

 

The Depth Chart – The Plays of the Week

I’m going to list 3 groups of players for each position (except K). These groups are going to be PUBLIC plays, EXPERT plays, and HuLo plays. They are not ranked in any order. I’ll give a little analysis after each position section, but I won’t necessarily give a narrative about each player (I’m trying to keep this relatively short going forward).

QB

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Aaron Rodgers – GB Cam Newton – CAR Andrew Luck – IND
Tony Romo – DAL Teddy Bridgewater – MIN Joe Flacco – BAL
Marcus Mariota – TEN Tyrod Taylor – BUF Matthew Stafford – DET
Drew Brees – NO Jay Cutler – CHI Nick Foles – STL
Ben Roethlisberger – PIT Ryan Mallett – HOU  
Matt Ryan – ATL Sam Bradford – PHI

 

– I think Mariota moves to a very public play this week off of his big Week 1 game. While I don’t think he’ll be terrible, I’m also not going to chase what probably was the best game he’ll have all year. He’s fine as a value play but I don’t think he’s at all contrarian. Speaking of Mariota, after what he did to Tampa Bay I fully expect that Drew Brees will be the highest owned QB as he gets to face the Bucs this week. I’m most interested in Big Ben of all the Public Plays. His price isn’t bad (7th highest on FD, 8th highest on DK) at all and he’s got a nice matchup at home against the 49ers coming off a really short week. Ben and Brees are my top QB plays this week if you’re planning on paying up and not going HuLo.

– After his nice game on Saturday people are starting to talk about Tyrod Taylor like they talked about Tim Teobw (minus the insults). His legs give him a scoring boost but I don’t see how the Patriots let him do what the Colts did. His price has gone up a 20% over last week and that doesn’t help his value. Of course I love it any time I can get a Chip Kelly QB, so Bradford will definitely be in a lot of my lineups even though I still see him being widely owned. Cam Newton going up against a Houston defense that got torched by Alex Smith is going to be a popular call for a bounce back player this week. I’m not opposed to it on FD where his price is down a bunch but on DK I can get Roethlisberger for the same price so it’s a no-go for me on Cam there.

– One of the players that I think everyone is going to sleep on this week is Andrew Luck. He’s coming off a bad week, down a WR, and facing a staunch Jets D. Couple all of that with his price and I’m not sure people are going to want to take the chance. I feel completely the opposite. I just don’t see how he’s going to have 2 bad weeks in a row, especially with this being the home opener and a prime time game. I’m not all-in on Luck, but I’ll have a lot of him this week. If I’m going to go with a value QB it’s going to be Nick Foles. He’s not the most talented guy but he can really throw the deep ball and gets to face a weak Redskins Defense. His price is comparable to Tyrod Taylor ($6.5K on FD, $5.5K on DK) and I’d much rather go with Foles. He’s not a sexy pick, which will keep ownership low, but he could be a profitable one.

RB

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Jeremy Hill – CIN Joseph Randle – DAL TJ Yeldon – JAX
Adrian Peterson – MIN Bishop Sankey – TEN Justin Forsett – BAL
Jamaal Charles – KC David Johnson – ARI Doug Martin – TB
Eddie Lacy – GB Tevin Coleman – ATL Alfred Morris – WSH
Danny Woodhead – SD Ameer Abdullah – DET Marshawn Lynch – SEA
Marcel Reece – OAK Ronnie Hillman – DEN LeSean McCoy – BUF
Christopher Ivory – NYJ   Lance Dunbar – DAL
Carlos Hyde – SF  

 

– You’re probably looking at the Public Plays list and thinking, “huh?” Let me explain. When a guy scores 2 TD’s people tend to take notice. The general public consistently chases points. Sometimes that’s a really bad idea (Marcel Reece) and sometimes that’s not such a bad idea (Christopher Ivory). I try not to let what happened last week influence me unless it involves a role change. Nothing changed here, so Reece is still a bad play and Ivory is still a matchups dependent play (this week the matchup is very good). In general I love Carlos Hyde but this week I’m shying away due to an expected high ownership and a tough matchup going East with an early start on a short week. I tend to stay off players on Thursday (other than K on FD) and that’s right where my head is at with Charles. I don’t hate the matchup, but I’m going to pass on him. Peterson is a prime bounce back candidate this week after a terrible Monday night performance.

– “If only Ameer Abdullah were getting more carries….” is about all I have been reading on my Twitter timeline. People love the kid. I love his talent. What I don’t love is his current role. If we can’t rely on 15-18 touches a game then he’s not a great play. I’d much rather ignore Bruce Arians (“Chris Johnson will shoulder the load”) and roll out David Johnson. It’s only a matter of time. The play I really like from this list is Sankey. He looked great, Terrence West looked bad, and the Browns have a bad run defense. I’ll ignore Narrative Street (West comes back to haunt Browns) and just play the guy with the talent.

– If you’re to believe Gus Bradley (“Yeldon will be more involved”), then TJ Yeldon is undervalued this week. The Dolphins gave up 120+ yards to Alfred Morris and if the Jags want to stay in this game they need to control the clock with their horse. Speaking of Morris, he just keeps churning out yards. The matchup isn’t great, but he’s clearly the lead back (Matt Jones didn’t even get the 2nd most touches at RB) and he’s always productive. If he scores a TD then he’ll surely pay off his price tag. With Dez Bryant out for the next month or so I expect to see the Cowboys rely more on Dunbar. He lined up at WR all game and did quite well (8-70). Defenses (and fantasy owners) are going to key in on TWill and Beasley, leaving opportunity for you if Dunbar continues to catch these passes. He makes for a great, cheap flex play on sites that have the position. Lynch and Forsett both had a rough Week 1. Studs bounce back and both have great matchups.

WR

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Antonio Brown – PIT Donte Moncrief – IND Leonard Hankerson – ATL
Calvin Johnson – DET DeAndre Hopkins – HOU Cole Beasley – DAL
Julio Jones – ATL Terrence Williams – DAL Devante Adams – GB
James Jones – GB Randall Cobb – GB Sammy Watkins – BUF
Odell Beckham – NYG Tavon Austin – STL Breshad Perriman – BAL
Keenan Allen – SD Jarvis Landry – MIA Devin Funchess – CAR
Jordan Matthews – PHI Nelson Agholor – PHI Emmanuel Sanders – DEN
Brandin Cooks – NO Stevie Johnson – SD Pierre Garcon – WSH
Ryan Grant – WSH Andre Johnson – IND

 

– I’m not sure I care about what his ownership is, I’m going to try to get Antonio Brown into my lineup this week. He’s incredibly expensive but there’s enough value out there to make it work. His matchup is outstanding and he’s just a machine. Just like with guys like Marcel Reece, people are going to see the 2 TD from James Jones and be all over him. I expect he’ll be in the top 5 of most widely owned WR this week. I’m not sure his talent/role are worth you jumping on that train. He only had 4 targets this week, so for all the love people talk about with he and Rodgers, it was more a case of right place/right time. I’m fading him completely this week. I will never argue with you if you take Julio Jones in a GPP. He’s in my top 2 WR this year and unless he’s playing a top 3 CB he’s in play for me.

– Fantasy Experts on Twitter are in love with Jarvis Landry. My feed exploded when he scored on Sunday. That’s all I needed to know about where his ownership is and where it’s headed. It’s already high and it’s going higher. That’s not to say he’s a bad play, just know that 30% of the field is going to own him.

– The injuries to TY Hilton, DeSean Jackson, and Dez Bryant are going to make Donte Mocrief, Ryan Grant, and Terrence Williams all very popular plays. Of those 3 I think the most highly owned will be Williams but the most productive will be Moncrief.  All 3 of these guys are young and flashy picks. I’m not opposed to any of them, but I’m also not sure that you wouldn’t be better off with the “boring” alternatives: Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon, and Cole Beasley.

– Sammy Watkins was completely shut out this past week, but he was also shadowed by Vontae Davis (one of the best CB in the NFL). People are going to be way off him because of that. Watkins is too talented to put up a stinker again in a good matchup against the Patriots. I’ll gladly take advantage of a situation where people overreact to one week.

TE

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Rob Gronkowski – NE Austin Sefarian Jenkins – TB Martellus Bennett – CHI
Travis Kelce – KC Greg Olsen – CAR Scott Chandler – NE
Tyler Eifert – CIN Ladarius Greene – SD
Jason Witten – DAL
Jimmy Graham – SEA

 

– You sit Gronk at your own risk. I don’t care how highly owned he is, he’s a monster and always worthy of consideration. The 4 other Week 1 studs (Kelce, Eifert, Sefarian-Jenkins, Witten) are another story completely. I think you can look elsewhere and avoid the high ownership rates for similar production. Therese guys aren’t in the same league as Gronk and don’t nearly have the same level of consistency.

– A couple of guys to target are Jimmy Graham (good matchup) and Greg Olsen (stud coming off a bad game). I also really like the idea of going with Scott Chandler because just when you think you’ve figured the Pats out, Belichick goes and flips the script.

DEF

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Denver Broncos New Orleans Saints Jacksonville Jaguars
Saint Louis Rams Tennessee Titans
San Francisco 49ers

 

– The Denver Defense is about the only Thursday night play I’d make this week outside of Brandon McMannus. They looked amazing against Baltimore and I think KC is in store for much of the same havoc. They’ll be highly owned but I think they are worth the risk.

– Saint Louis had a great game against Seattle and should have a similar effort against the Redskins. They should be the most highly owned defense of the weekend slate. On the flip side I think a lot of people are going to be influenced to play SF after their big game against Minnesota but I think they struggle big time this week in Pittsburgh.

– The Saints are taking on Tampa and if Tennessee can handle them, then I don’t see why the Saints couldn’t. They are one of my top defensive plays of the week.

– Are we totally sure Miami’s offense is going to be good? I’m not, which is why I like Jacksonville as a very under the radar play this week at home. In a similar vein I KNOW that Cleveland doesn’t have a good offense, so I’ll jump on Tennessee to have a 2nd good defensive effort in a row. Neither of these defenses should be highly owned at all.

Check out the Fake Football Cheat Sheets for my sample lineups. I do the Fantasy Aces section but the process of selecting the lineups is the same on all the sites.

Make sure to check back on Saturday as I’ll post an updated article for the weekend.

Follow me on Twitter @bankster17 and good luck with your Hail Mary!

5 Responses

  1. Heath says:

    Sorry I had a typo in there, insight not insite

  2. Heath says:

    I would like to say, I think you did a good job on this article. I agree with the majority of it. I am surprised that Mark Ingram wasn’t mentioned or listed at all in your RB section. As you stated Sankey looked good last week, which is interesting since he looked terrible all last year. It very well could have been how bad the Tampa Bay defense is. Which in turn means that the Saints, who are now trying to do a more balanced offense, should run all over the Buccs. I know you touched on this with Brees, but Ingram could have a monster week and is quite cheap in most daily sites based on his potential. Thanks for the insite, keep up the good work

  3. this article sux says:

    ryan mallet vs a very solid CAR d is an expert play? wut.
    I love Nuk, but josh norman essentially shut down Julio last year and Nuk is not Julio.

    and really Marcel Reese as a public play? what are you smoking

    Andre johnson IS in fact old and boring AND SLOW … matching him a terrible play in a possible matchup vs Revis

    Breshad Perriman HuLo when hes still going to be out until october?
    Funchess is LuLo when he cant even break into target shares of cotchery and ginn.

    • Doug Shain says:

      Good afternoon This article sux,

      Thank you for taking the time to read the article and giving me your feedback. Let’s take your issues one at a time:

      1) Please make sure you check last week’s article to get a better understanding of what makes a play Public, Expert, HuLo. It’s important to know that these are NOT players I recommend, but instead they are how I see the breakdown of where certain plays are coming from. I use the section below each position to explain who I like and who I don’t.

      2) I think Ryan Mallet is going to be a person we see mentioned a lot on Twitter and by the experts as a potential value. He’s super inexpensive, which makes him a potential punt play in people’s eyes. I don’t think he’s a good play, which is why I didn’t really talk about him in the narrative. I agree that you should stay away from him for the most part.

      3) Marcel Reece should be 0% owned. He will be more highly owned than that, even if it’s 3%, simply because he scored 2 TD’s. The general public chases multiple TD games. Me putting him on that list was more cautionary than anything. I think some people will play him, I DON’T think you should be one of them.

      4) HuLo means High Upside, Low Ownership. Andre Johnson will be lower owned this week because people are going to flock to Moncrief. I agree that Revis is a tough play, but if Revis isn’t on Johnson then he becomes a play with 6-80=1 upside. I’ll gladly take that out of my WR3. He’s not a TOP play of mine, but he’s someone I”m look at for sure.

      5) The last I read before I posted the article was that there was a chance Perriman was playing this week. If that’s not the case, then he’ll be off my Weekend Update. If he does play then I think he’s got a ton of upside in a friendly matchup.

      Thanks for the feedback, I hope you continue to enjoy the Hail Mary.

  4. byron says:

    Doug-

    Very nice write-ups. Love the format and the detail.

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