The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 2 Weekend Update September 17, 2016  |  Doug Shain


The Huddle – Opening Statement

Welcome to the WEEKEND UPDATE of the Hail Mary, a long look at the GPP plays for NFL Week 2. If you want to know more about my article and what it’s all about, please click here.

Week 1 was pretty insane but I’m not going to base a lot of what my personal picks on what we saw; especially the negative stuff we saw. Week 1 is usually messy but the cream rises to the top and the top players will often turn out to be top players. I’m not worried about Dez Bryant, I’m not worried (yet) about Devonta Freeman, and I’m not worried about Adrian Peterson. I’m not going to change an entire off season’s worth of research and preparation because AP was held to under 40 yards one time.

There were some positive things I saw in Week 1 that did make me change my mind on a few players. CJ Anderson, Mohammed Sanu, and Stefon Diggs all did enough to cement a place in my mind as “safe” plays.  On the other hand I’m not ready to make HOF busts for Carson Wentz, Spencer Ware, or Willie Snead (though I do think people were wrong to jump Michael Thomas above him).

You’re going to find that I will usually have a lot of players listed in my FIRST LOOK article but that will get scaled down for the WEEKEND UPDATE. It’s really hard to know who the public is going to flock to, who the experts are going to tout, and who will be a value this early in the week. Once I get a better read on things I’m able to tighten things up and get a better idea of who belongs in what category.

Because of the large number of players on these lists, please understand when I don’t write a blurb about each and every one of them. If you want to know more about a player that I glossed over, or why they are placed into the list I have them in, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17). I respond to everyone who writes to me so you can feel confident that your question will get answered. Enjoy the read for now and make sure to come back this weekend to see who we should be locking into our GPP lineups.

 

 

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QB

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Cam Newton (CAR) vs SF Joe Flacco (BAL) @ CLE Philip Rivers (SD) vs JAX
Derek Carr (OAK) vs ATL Drew Brees (NO) @ NYG Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs MIN
Dak Prescott (DAL) @ WSH Andy Dalton (CIN) @ PIT Alex Smith (KC) @ HOU
Marcus Mariota (TEN) @ DET Matt Ryan (ATL) @ OAK Blake Bortles (JAX) @ SD
Matthew Stafford (DET) vs TEN Trevor Siemien (DEN) vs IND
Eli Manning (NYG) vs NO Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs CIN
Josh McCown (CLE) vs BAL

 

– Wow, looking at the Thursday ownership percentages can give you a whole new perspective on where the public is going with their GPP plays. I’m floored that Josh McCown was among the top 7 most owned QB’s of the week. Why would anyone even take that chance when they can get Joe Flacco, in the same game, with a better matchup? It wouldn’t shock me to see that ownership flip flop come Sunday. I love Flacco this week against a terrible Browns defensive secondary.

– It seems like Joe Q. Public also favors Derek Carr and Eli Manning in their respective matchups. While I do as well, it’s not like Matt Ryan and Drew Brees are expected to have poor games. I’ll gladly take the lower ownership and try to get creative in GPP’s (maybe stacking Ryan with Sanu and Brees with Fleener).

– I’m also very shocked to see Dak Prescott among the top 7 most widely owned QB. Apparently the public is willing to give him another shot after his pedestrian Week 1 performance. That high ownership takes him out of consideration for me. If I’m going to look at that price point then I’ll go with Trevor Siemian against the Colts and their weak pass defense.

– It would appear as if people don’t want to spend up this week for QB as we saw low Thursday ownership on Rivers, Rodgers, and Big Ben. I think Rivers has the best matchup of the three but I’d have no issue using any of the three in a GPP; just know that with Rodgers especially, he’s facing a great defense and it’s possible he gets totally skunked.

– Game stacking the TEN/DET game should be fun. Both guys are going to be highly owned but both could pay off huge. Much like with Ryan/Brees, you can get around the ownership issue by getting creative with your stacks. Maybe you use Delanie Walker with Mariota instead of Tajae Sharpe (2nd most widely owned WR) and Theo Riddick with Matthew Stafford (avoid the WR altogether).

My guys: Marcus Mariota, Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Philip Rivers

 

 

RB

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Danny Woodhead (SD) vs JAX Carlos Hyde (SF) @ CAR Adrian Peterson (MIN) vs GB
Lamar Miller (HOU) vs KC Theo Riddick (DET) vs TEN DeMarco Murray (TEN) @ DET
Rashad Jennings (NYG) vs NO LeGarrette Blount (NE) vs MIA Ryan Mathews (PHI) @ CHI
DeAngelo Williams (PIT) vs CIN TJ Yeldon (JAX) @ SD Jalen Richard (OAK) vs ATL
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) @ WSH Devonta Freeman (ATL) @ OAK
David Johnson (ARI) vs TB Chris Thompson (WSH) vs DAL
CJ Anderson (DEN) vs IND
Jeremy Langford (CHI) vs PHI

 

– What I said on Tuesday: “CJ Anderson is the real deal. If DEN keeps feeding him the ball late in the game he’s going to have a monster season. IND get burned badly by the Lions RB both on the ground and through the air. CJ Anderson is capable of doing what DET’s back did. The New York Jets ran all over the Bengals in Week 1. I don’t see why DWill can’t do that himself this week.  When LeVeon Bell doesn’t play, DeAngelo Williams is a top 10 (if not higher) RB.” My feelings haven’t changed and even though they are the two most highly owned RB I’m still all in on them. I’ll differentiate elsewhere.

– I’m shocked by the high ownership for Rashad Jennings. I think he is going to have a big game this week and I’ll still use him pretty heavily. He’s a nice pivot from OBJ (#1 most highly owned WR) if you want exposure to NYG without quite such a high ownership.  Of that top group I also like the volume that we are going to see from Jeremy Langford. He’s not an efficient dude but volume is volume. He’s well priced and I can see his Sunday ownership taking a dive from where it was on Thursday with people moving to Yeldon and Blount.

– Speaking of Yeldon and Blount, Chris Ivory is out again this week so the workload in JAX all goes to Yeldon. Last week the Chargers got crushed by Spencer Ware and Yeldon has a very similar skill set. I can see 100 total yards and TD for sure. At his price, that’s outstanding. As for Blount, he could very easily get 20 touches. I expected his ownership to be higher. He’s a very nice value and the only real issue here is that he doesn’t catch passes. If he scores a TD that’ll make up for that problem.

– Carlos Hyde was 1% owned on the Thursday slate on Fantasy Aces. 1%?? I know Carolina’s reputation. I know that SF is coming east for an early game after having played Monday night…but 1%?  Did they not see how Chip Kelly is structuring his offense? Did they not see how Carolina got shredded by CJ Anderson? I’m sorry, but when you put all those factors at play and then see his low price, how can you not throw him into a few GPP’s as a Flex option? I love him this week.

– I have no yet given up on Devonta Freeman. Week 1 was just that, one week. Let’s see how this plays out for a few weeks. For now I’ll just take the lower price point and be happy with it in a great matchup at OAK.

– I know I sound like a broken record, but ATL can’t stop pass catching RB. I think this week that will end up being Jalen Richard. If you want to go really big elsewhere, he’s a punt play that has some upside. Similarly, I like Chris Thompson as another punt RB option due to his pass catching ability and nose for the goal line. He’s super cheap.

– I’m not saying I love the matchup for AP but he’s going to be really low owned. He’s got the potential for a huge game every time out. I wouldn’t make too many lineups before I started to think about throwing his name in there at least once.

My guys: CJ Anderson, DeAngelo Williams, TJ Yeldon, Carlos Hyde, DeVonta Freeman, Rashad Jennings, Jeremy Landford

WR

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Alshon Jeffery (CHI) vs PHI Will Fuller (HOU) vs KC Mike Wallace (BAL) @ CLE
Tyrell Williams (SD) vs JAX Mohammed Sanu (ATL) @ OAK DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) vs KC
Willie Snead (NO) @ NYG Jeremy Maclin (KC) @ HOU Julio Jones (ATL) @ OAK
Tajae Sharpe (TEN) @ DET Allen Robinson (JAX) @ SD Victor Cruz (NYG) vs NO
Jordan Matthews (PHI) @ CHI Sterling Shepard (NYG) vs NO Dez Bryant (DAL) @ WSH
Odell Beckham Jr (NYG) vs NO Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) vs IND Michael Crabtree (OAK) vs ATL
AJ Green (CIN) @ PIT Travis Benjamin (SD) vs JAX
Antonio Brown (PIT) vs CIN Stefon Diggs (MIN) vs GB
Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) vs SF
Marvin Jones (DET) vs TEN
Amari Cooper (OAK) vs ATL
Eli Rogers (PIT) vs CIN

 

 

– I need to start giving the public some more credit. Tyrell Williams, Tajae Sharpe, and Eli Rogers were among the top 12 most widely owned WR on the Thursday slate. Wow, I had them as much lower owned guys. Good for the public. They are very right on Tajae Sharpe; he should be in line for a big game. I’m less interested in Williams and Rogers. If I’m going to play at Steelers WR then it’s going to be Antonio Brown. As for SD, I think Travis Benjamin is going to be the guy there. At the very least I’d rather take my shot on the lower owned big free agent signing over the guy who emerged late in camp out of nowhere.

– I don’t see how OBJ has a bad game this weekend. The Saints defensive secondary might be the worst in football. The Giants could put up 40+ in this one and OBJ is going to get his. That all said, 40 points is a lot and not all the TD are going Beckham’s way. I actually like Victor Cruz the best of all the Giants WR this weekend and will definitely be using him. In that same game I’m becoming more and more down on the Saints WR. I think they score a bunch but it’s going to come from the RB and Fleener.

– I’ll give a big thumbs up to both OAK WR in a great matchup this weekend as well as Kelvin Benjamin. He looked amazing early on in that opening game. Nobody on SF is going to be able to stop him.

– Stefon Diggs is my new WR man crush. He’s consistently good and is about to break out huge. If he gets in the end zone his score is going to look really nice this week compared to his price. I like MIN in this game.

– Julio Jones was only 4% owned on the Thursday slate? Yeah, I’ll take some of that, please. I know OAK just go burned by Willie Snead, but the outside WR (Brandin Cooks) didn’t do too poorly either. DeAndre Hopkins was 2% owned but I’m going elsewhere in that game (more below).

– I guess Mike Wallace is the WR on BAL that I’ll be stacking with Joe Flacco. I don’t like it but when I looked at all the factors I just couldn’t see another WR on that team that can do what Wallace does.

– Jeremy Maclin and Will Fuller have special connections with their QB’s. I like both of them quite a bit this week.

My guys: Odell Beckham, Antonio Brown, Will Fuller, Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace, Julio Jones, Travis Benjamin, Michael Crabtree, Stefon Diggs

 

TE

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Greg Olsen (CAR) vs SF Dwayne Allen (IND) @ DEN Coby Fleener (NO) @ NYG
Jesse James (PIT) vs CIN Jason Witten (DAL) @ WSH Austin Seferian Jenkins (TB) @ ARI
Delanie Walker (TEN) @ DET Julius Thomas (JAX) @ SD Clive Walford (OAK) vs ATL
Gary Barnidge (CLE) vs BAL Tre Burton (PHI) @ CHI Kyle Rudolph (MIN) @ GB

 

– Even if Gronk plays I’m off him this week. I’d rather save the money and use Olsen or Walker. Despite the good game from Kelvin Benjamin, it was Greg Olsen that Cam was looking for with the game on the line last Thursday. He’s rock solid. For the most part I’m not spending up for TE this week. Once again the public proves to me that they’re smarter than I had given them credit for with Jesse James and Gary Barnidge among the top 4 most widely owned TE from the Thursday slate. I’ll still use Barnidge this week but I won’t be as excited about it with everyone else owning him as well. Delanie Walker is my #1 TE this week, hands down. He’s got a great matchup. DET just got burned by a combination of Dwayne Allen and Jack Doyle. I know that part of that is a function of Chud’s offensive system but some of the credit has to go to poor defensive play by DET. Delanie Walker is better than either of the Indy guys and I’ve already said how much I like the TEN passing game this week.

– Jason Witten, as expected, will continue to be a security blanket for Prescott. He won’t get a ton of yards but he should still see double digit targets this week. Whoever is in at TE for IND is in play because of Chudzinski’s scheme. With Zach Ertz out, there’s a lot of talk that it’ll be Tre Burton, and not Brent Celek, who will break out at TE for PHI.

– I was down on Coby Fleener all off season but this is the week I’m very high on him. He was really highly owned in Week 1 and he burned everyone. That will murder his ownership percentage this week. The Giants just got toasted by Jason Witten. Their secondary is awesome but Fleener won’t have to contend with that. He’s going to get all the spill off from the WR that are being shut down. He won’t put up Gronk numbers but he should see enough action to pay off his cost.

My guys: Delanie Walker, Coby Fleener, Gary Barnidge

 

 

DEF

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Carolina Panthers vs SF Baltimore Ravens @ CLE Philadelphia Eagles @ CHI
New England Patriots vs MIA Seattle Seahawks @ LA Denver Broncos vs IND
Jacksonville Jaguars @ SD
Minnesota Vikings vs GB

 

– Far and away the Panthers and the Pats were the two most popular defenses on the Thursday slate. I’m all in on NE and most likely won’t look in too many other directions for D/ST.

– 9 buddies and I could stop the Rams at this point. Yes, I said 9 other guys. We don’t need an 11th player to stop Case Keenum. The Seattle defense will be just fine.

– The Bears are terrible. The Eagles D looked good (albeit against CLE). I think they have another solid game in Week 2. Jacksonville could be an interesting play against the Chargers with Keenan Allen out. Rivers is much worse minus his top guy and the Jags defense should be a lot better this year. The Vikings looked great in Week 1 and it wouldn’t shock me if they shut down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. He’s good for a road clunker or two each year. I’ve been all over MIN all offseason and I have no issue riding them this week.

 

Best of luck this week! I hope you all kick some butt and make a ton of money. Make sure to check out all the great content at The Fake Football including the Cheat Sheets (of which I have a part in writing). You’ll find a ton of analysis, data, and sample lineups. It’s well worth the cost of subscription.

Your feedback is always welcome.  You can find me on Twitter @bankster17. I’m around all the time for questions, advice, and comments.  I answer every single person that sends me a Tweet.

2 Responses

  1. Doug says:

    I use Fantasy Aces data. I know it’s not from the big boy sites so we have to take it with a grain of salt, but at least it gives us something to work off of. Great question. Thanks.

  2. Shawn says:

    I see you mention ownership percentage numbers but where are you getting that data? You can’t see it on DK and the new FD policy also no longer gives you ownership percentages.

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